Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Impressive toy

It's not entirely clear how scary this might feel til you get used to it, but it looks pretty damn impressive:



According to the company's website:
For special applications, future designs could achieve higher altitudes and top speeds, extended range of up to 300 km and even travel both above and below the water´s surface.
I look forward to seeing some new pointless, but kind of fun, exercise like crossing Bass Strait by jet pack, then.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

This is modern Art: Part III

The Telegraph reports on an exhibit at the Tate Modern which featured 55 fish. (Not very big ones by the looks.) Trouble is, about a quarter of them died. This was not actually the intention.

You can always trust PETA to go overboard:
"Tropical fish, who were born to forage among brilliantly coloured coral reefs, belong in the deep blue depths of the sea, not suffering a miserable existence in glass tanks in art galleries so that people can gawp at them."
I take it they did not react well, then, to an earlier fish related art controversy:
In 2000, the Chilean artist Marco Evaristti sparked outrage for a work he exhibited at the Trapholt Art Museum in Denmark. The display, entitled Helena, featured 10 blenders containing goldfish. Evaristti said that he wanted people "to do battle with their conscience" so visitors to the exhibition were invited to turn on the blenders. Several of the fish were liquidised which led to the museum director, being charged with, but later acquitted, of animal cruelty.
I wouldn't be happy with a goldfish in a blender exhibit either, but perhaps more on the grounds that it is really stupid art.

About those CO2 levels

Some not very useful reporting by Reuters going on about this topic. Read here for clarification.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Hitchens on talking to Iran

It's worth reading Hitchen's take on this.

Iran reversal

Tigerhawk had an important post recently about the apparent reversal in US intelligence circles about Iran's intentions to build nuclear weapons. They are back to being sure it is being pursued.

Those of us who were skeptical of the 2007 NIE report have a right to feel somewhat vindicated.

All hail the duck

Luv-a-duck make a range of pre-cooked duck products that last for months in the fridge (longer if you freeze it). They also have a website that boasts of the company's "state of the art retail duck showroom at Port Melbourne." I must remember that when next down there.

We recently had a pack of roast duck legs we bought last year and nearly forgotten about. They were just heated up in the little benchtop oven, and served on mashed potato. Fantastic.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Short break needed

I need to spend more time concentrating on work for the next few days.

In a vague attempt to keep people visiting while I try very hard not to read the Internet at all in that period, I have set up some posts to appear in my absence. Nothing too deep, and most are links to stuff that interests me.

Fresh application of my mind to blogging will resume soon.

Troofer fodder

Outspoken widow of 9/11 victim dies aboard another doomed flight | theage.com.au

Saturday, February 14, 2009

A tabloid moment

Dad at 13

The pictures at the above link show such a baby faced 13 year old that it is kind of hard to believe he is the father. (He's not taking the rap for someone else, is he?) The mother is his 15 year old "girlfriend". What was she doing playing around with a boy who looks about 10?

UPDATE: I really was too generous in that first post: he could pass for 8 or 9, in all honesty. I see that The Times has a lengthier article about it. In the accompanying video, it shows the school that the girl attends as being "A specialist school for the performing arts." Hmm. Fits in well with my recent run of posts about famous artistic souls and their lack of familiarity with the concept of self restraint. (Of course, I am being very unfair to this girl. Maybe.)

But even worse, is this:
Chantelle said that Alfie had regularly stayed the night.
Hello, parents? Anyone home?

UPDATE 2: I may have been right with my initial doubts that the boy is the father. In a very farcical turn of events, the large amounts of money apparently on offer for the story are almost certainly the reason that 2 other teenagers are happy to claim that they could be the real father, and DNA tests are being suggested. As The Guardian writes:
Small wonder that the News of the World has compared the situation to Channel 4 drama Shameless - only with "the total absence of anything remotely funny".
Not that I find Shameless funny, though.

Pragmatism?

Country pulling in all directions awaits leader | theage.com.au

Jason Koutsoukis gives a good overview of Israeli politics in The Age today, and thinks that even if Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister, it's still possible that he will be more pragmatic with the Palestinians than his rhetoric indicates.

But in another article, he also quotes a former Israeli diplomat as saying that Israel is "ready" to launch a military strike on Iran. Netanyahu mentioned Iran in his "victory"speech too.

I bet the Obama White House is sweating over this.

Friday, February 13, 2009

From the archives of the sophisticated European sense of humour

Ananova - Pooping Obama is a best-seller

I'm not sure if this story had much attention when it first came out last December, but it is of cultural interest:

Catalonians traditionally celebrate Christmas by placing a caganer, which translates as pooper, in a nativity scene.

People find it fun to try to spot the tiny defecating figures which are supposed to bring prosperity and a good harvest.

Traditionally, caganers would be small bearded men in full Catalan costume but these days, it's more likely to be a celebrity.

I guess you know you've hit the bigtime when you become the model for a Catalan Christmas pooper.

The way to a voter's heart is via his...

Mexico City Journal - Mayor Aims to Add Spark to Flagging Sex Lives - NYTimes.com

“Things have changed,” Angel Posadas Sandoval, 74, finally confessed, not going into specifics but nonetheless making himself abundantly clear.

He was talking, however obliquely, about the free Viagra the government is giving away to poor men age 60 and above.

Talking with Iran: the pro's

Foreign Policy: Think Again: Talking with Iran

Here's an article by (I think) a former diplomat arguing that the US talking immediately with Iran is a good idea.

Not sure that the case for that is conclusive, but there are interesting bits of history of note in the argument. For example, the section on page 2 about the post 9/11 situation starts:

In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, Tehran detained literally hundreds of suspected al Qaeda operatives seeking to flee Afghanistan into Iran. Iran repatriated at least 200 of these individuals to the then new government of Hamid Karzai, to Saudi Arabia, and to other countries. The Iranian government documented these actions to the United Nations and the United States in February 2002, including providing copies of each repatriated individual's passport.

But Iran could not repatriate all of the individuals it detained. For example, the Islamic Republic has no diplomatic relations with Egypt, and Iranian diplomats told my colleagues and me that Tehran was not able to send al Qaeda operatives of Egyptian origin back to Egypt.

Silly star

'Joaquin, I'm sorry you couldn't be here': Letterman baffled by actor's shambolic performance

Snippets of the interview can be seen here. I guess the whole thing can be seen at Letterman's site.

I'm inclined to go with the hoax theory.

Or maybe there's just never enough?

Those warning we failed to heed | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

I've already expressed skepticism about the immediate round of "not enough controlled burning" and "not enough fuel reduction" claims being made as soon as the destruction of last Saturday was finished.

Andrew Bolt has a column today on the topic in which he argues that the current Labor government in Victoria has been one of the worst for ignoring calls for such action from fire chiefs and the like.

He may be right for all I know from this distance.

However, I reckon he inadvertantly weakens the case when he goes and quotes the same line from a 1939 royal commission, and again in 1984.

Look, if after every major bushfire, every investigation says there was not enough fuel reduction in the disaster, it suggests that it is just always going to be one of the reasons for a bushfire. I suppose it is logical in a way.

Certainly, by giving us examples from well before the political influence of Greenies, Andrew is weakening the case against them now.

I remain very skeptical that, given the weather conditions for the whole month of January in Victoria, the never-likely-to-achieved "perfect" scheme of fuel reduction would have actually prevented major fires. I even doubt that different planning laws regarding the siting of houses may have made too much difference, given the distance ahead of the fire front that 100 kph gusts could send embers.

My intuition is that, if people like to live within a hundred meters or two of the edge of a forest (and fair enough if they do), then design standards of the house (including the enforced inclusion of a bushfire shelter) is more likely the answer.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

There goes the neighbourhood

Continuing this blog's determined (yet curiously without obvious motivation) vendetta against Dubai, this article in the New York Times indicates that it is definitely not the place to be during a global economic downturn:

With Dubai’s economy in free fall, newspapers have reported that more than 3,000 cars sit abandoned in the parking lot at the Dubai Airport, left by fleeing, debt-ridden foreigners (who could in fact be imprisoned if they failed to pay their bills). Some are said to have maxed-out credit cards inside and notes of apology taped to the windshield.

The government says the real number is much lower. But the stories contain at least a grain of truth: jobless people here lose their work visas and then must leave the country within a month. That in turn reduces spending, creates housing vacancies and lowers real estate prices, in a downward spiral that has left parts of Dubai — once hailed as the economic superpower of the Middle East — looking like a ghost town.
OK, so the news is bad. (Real estate prices dropping 30% in the space of couple of months, for example.) How does the government there seek to improve things? By banning bad news, of course!:
Instead of moving toward greater transparency, the emirates seem to be moving in the other direction. A new draft media law would make it a crime to damage the country’s reputation or economy, punishable by fines of up to 1 million dirhams (about $272,000). Some say it is already having a chilling effect on reporting about the crisis.
Presumably, they want to ban rumours like this:
Dubai, unlike Abu Dhabi or nearby Qatar and Saudi Arabia, does not have its own oil, and had built its reputation on real estate, finance and tourism. Now, many expatriates here talk about Dubai as though it were a con game all along. Lurid rumors spread quickly: the Palm Jumeira, an artificial island that is one of this city’s trademark developments, is said to be sinking, and when you turn the faucets in the hotels built atop it, only cockroaches come out.
It was all built on sand: literally and metaphorically.

Nice mice

Mouse study reveals genetic component of empathy

From the report:
In the study, a highly social strain of mice learned to associate a sound played in a specific cage with something negative simply by hearing a mouse in that cage respond with squeaks of distress. A genetically different mouse strain with fewer social tendencies did not learn any connection between the cues and the other mouse's distress, showing that the ability to identify and act on another's emotions may have a genetic basis.
I'm mostly curious as to how you tell a strain of mice is "highly social". Do they spend a lot of time having friends over?

Carbon price sale!

What a slump in carbon prices means for the future - environment - New Scientist

Genius or not?

Oscar watch: Jerry Lewis is long overdue an Academy Award | Film | guardian.co.uk

Heh. The Guardian re-considers (in quite "high brow" fashion, it must be said) the history of the Jerry Lewis Wars: is he a remarkable auteur, or just an irritating schmuck? I like this part:
But, as the critic Jonathan Rosenbaum has written: "Lewis's popularity in America is far greater than any French love of Lewis ... American denial of the American love of Jerry Lewis is pathological."
Let's just say that I feel he is now under-appreciated (indeed, probably virtually unknown by a deprived potential audience of children, even though nearly all of his movies are available for around $9 at Big W or K Mart.) Go on - at least get Artists and Models. Even if you are feminist, you can tell your children that Dean Martin was an evil man who should not be touching that woman without her consent.

As noted previously

'Apocalyptic predictions' mislead the public on climate change, say experts | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Basically, the British Met Office Hadley Centre makes the same point I have recently.

While both sides are at fault, I get crankier with the skeptics now because it is not as if there are no websites out there that are "moderate" in their claims, yet can point out the flaws in most skeptic arguments. Yet it seems increasingly clear that prominent media skeptics do make the attempt to read the other side. Indeed, as I have also complained recently, they just don't care about the issue of qualifications or experience of the skeptics.

Real Climate, although much derided by the likes of commenters at Marohasy's blog, has often had posts complaining about exaggerations or mis-reporting on the AGW side of the coin. (However, I have to admit, my recollection of their post on An Inconvenient Truth was too soft on big Al.)

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Another noteworthy first hand account

ABC Online - ABC Bushfire Community - Billowing mass of Hell

This one is by one of the firefighters, who found themselves simply unable to do a thing for the doomed town of Marysville:
We knew this was something serious, something far beyond what we had ever seen before. The conditions were absolutely extreme. The winds were hurricane strength.

We proceeded into Marysville. This was a little tourist town of 1500 people surrounded by mountain ash forest, tree ferns and waterfalls. It was a town built around that environment. It had a commercial centre, guesthouses, all the trappings of tourism

We got to Marysville and day turned to night. There were burning embers and pieces of bark landing and starting numerous spot fires. Our intentions were to put out the spot fires, find houses and save them. That's what we are trained for: to save life and property. ...

it became clear very quickly that the scope of the fire was beyond what we were capable of. The apparent conditions were so extreme that everything was impossible. No form of active fire fighting was possible.

Our training told us that we had a resonsibility to save our own crew and it was obvious that was what we needed to do.

We made our way back to the anchor point at the oval. It was a typical country oval - a patch of clear ground. We had to sit it out. There was 30 minutes of intense stuff and we sat there for four or five hours as the town burned around us. There were houses burning everywhere we looked.

It was very confusing. A lot of residents were attempting to leave. It was pandemonium. People were pleading with us to help them free friends and family who were trapped in their houses.
A nightmarish situation.

This'll be interesting

Iran's Ahmadinejad 'ready' to talk with America | csmonitor.com
Determined chants of "Death to America" rang out in city after city in Iran Tuesday, even as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a mass rally in Tehran that Iran was "ready" to talk to its arch-enemy if the US showed "real change."

Speaking as Iranians marked the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution, Mr. Ahmadinejad declared Iran to be "officially … a real and genuine superpower," and that the "shadow of threat has been removed forever" from the Islamic Republic.

"From now on, which power in the world can be found that has the courage to threaten the Iranian nation?" Ahmadinejad asked to cheers.

Hint: it probably starts with the letter "I".

But back to the basis on which the Iranian public appears to want "dialogue":
Despite the nod toward dialogue, the message from state-run TV was unrelenting. The afternoon news broadcast on IRIB Channel 1 devoted 25 minutes to scenes of Tehran and huge rallies across the country, with primary emphasis in every city on the "Death to America" chant.

Great line

Andrew Norton - Labor and ‘neoliberal’ policy

Andrew Norton has a great line in his post about Kevin Rudd's attack on "neo-liberalism" (which Andrew writes after pointing out the obvious problem in Rudd's argument is that it was Labor that brought in the fundamental reforms he complains about):
Apparently when the Coalition introduces a market reform it is ‘economic fundamentalism’, but when Labor implements a market reform it is ‘economic modernisation’.

Bottlenecks to watch out for

Why sustainable power is unsustainable - tech - 06 February 2009 - New Scientist

While we are talking clean energy, this recent New Scientist article outlined some of the natural bottlenecks that may be involved in some clean energy ideas.

Newt's ideas

GINGRICH: Where does the conservative movement go from here?

Newt Gingrich is notable for being a Republican identity who takes greenhouse issues seriously. He thinks the "Bush-Obama" stimulus is all wrong, and argues:

At American Solutions, there is an American Energy, Jobs and Prosperity plan being built that will turn American energy assets (including clean coal, ethanol, more production of oil and natural gas, new technologies from hydrogen to wind and solar and a vastly expanded nuclear-power program, as well as a dramatic modernization of the electric grid and an expansion of conservation) into money that stays here at home.

The next building boom ought to be in America instead of the Middle East, and the future of American energy consumption should be built on paying Americans rather than paying Venezuela, Iran, Russia or any other unreliable foreign country. OPEC's efforts to cut production and raise prices should remind us that the time to invest in new energy resources is now, before the next crisis.

It's a wonder Bob Brown and the Greens here are not arguing along similar lines for a big redeployment of the next stimulus package into energy issues (other than mere insulation.)

This is modern art: Part II

'Angel of the South' to be giant white horse - News, Art - The Independent

Maybe I should be torn. I can be quite awed by big statues, but like all sensible people, I also know that horses are inherently evil.

No, actually I am not torn at all. This planned giant white horse, standing in a nondescript field surrounded by electricity towers, would have to take the award for stupidest big public art installation ever. And it is the winner in a design competition for a work that is to be called "Angel of the South"? Is there something funny leaking into the water in that part of England?

Incidentally, the other two shortlisted entries "included a steel latticework "nest" by Richard Deacon and a tower of stacked cubes by Daniel Buren. " Hardly angel-like either, one must concede.

I see that England already has an "Angel of the North", but at least one can some influence of the concept of "angel" in it.

Great Britain's decline continues. Further updates coming.

Woops

CCTV apologizes for fireworks that burned Beijing hotel - International Herald Tribune

It was a big building too: go to the link to see the photo.

The story is also of interest for the way China effectively censored the image from its public:
There were no pictures on the front page of The Beijing News. On Tuesday morning, the home page of Xinhua, the official news agency, featured a photo from another tragedy: a stampede in South Korea that left four people dead. Throughout the morning, CCTV's brief bulletins about the blaze omitted footage of the burning tower. By evening, the newscast skipped the story entirely.

Even before the flames had been extinguished early Tuesday, pictures of the burning hotel had been removed from most of the main Internet portals serving China. In the afternoon, the story had been largely buried, but by the evening, news of the fire was accessible via the Xinhua and CCTV Web sites.

The network's unusual public apology and the media's skittish approach to covering the fire suggested that the authorities were struggling with how to deal with a sensitive news event in the age of cellphone cameras and YouTube.

The concept of "openness" in that country has a bit of a way to go.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Further proof that no one is wrong all of the time

Pharyngula: Singularly silly singularity

The rabidly and offensively anti-religion scientist PZ Myers takes down Ray Kurzweil's silly "singularity" idea.

I have never taken Kurzweil seriously, but it's good to read another scientist's explanation of why my intuitive dismissal of the concept was well founded.

High brow author with high brow squeeze

Salman Rushdie steps out with statuesque actress half his age

Forward planning needed

Asteroid bound for Earth! Warn your grandchildren - New Scientist

AN ASTEROID that had initially been deemed harmless has turned out to have a slim chance of hitting Earth in 160 years. While that might seem a distant threat, there's far less time available to deflect it off course.

Asteroid 1999 RQ36 was discovered a decade ago, but it was not considered particularly worrisome since it has no chance of striking Earth in the next 100 years - the time frame astronomers routinely use to assess potential threats.

Now, new calculations show a 1 in 1400 chance that it will strike Earth between 2169 and 2199, according to Andrea Milani of the University of Pisa in Italy and colleagues (www.arxiv.org/abs/0901.3631).

With an estimated diameter of 560 metres, 1999 RQ36 is more than twice the size of the better-known asteroid Apophis, which has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2036 (New Scientist, 12 July 2008, p 12). Both are large enough to unleash devastating tsunamis if they were to smash into the ocean.

Although 1999 RQ36's potential collision is late in the next century, the window of opportunity to deflect it comes much sooner, prior to a series of close approaches to Earth that the asteroid will make between 2060 and 2080.

Maybe, this asteroid will be the target of the world's first attempt to nudge one out of harm's way.

No one is wrong all the time

Germaine Greer: From its artificial islands to its boring new skycraper, Dubai's architecture is beyond crass

Well, after just dissing Germaine, I'll now quote her dissing Dubai (a place I admittedly have never visited) with approval.

Research where it hurts

Cannabis linked to testicular cancer

The physicist and the novelist

Pajamas Media John Updike and Me

Oh good. My favourite physicist Frank Tipler has an article about his difference of opinion with the late John Updike.

Tipler sounds sensible in the article. As I have mentioned before, this is what makes him so fascinating. One minute it's Jesus walking on water via neutrino beams from his feet, the next he sounds quite reasonable.

Dubious

State of Victoria's forests fanned bushfire inferno | The Australian

David Packham, a researcher from Monash University's climatology group who has specialised in bushfires, said governments had abandoned responsibility for the one control they had over wildfires -- the state of the forests that fed the flames.

"Due to terribly ill-informed and pretty well outrageous concepts of conservation, we have failed to manage our fuel and our forests," Mr Packham said. "They have become unhealthy, and dangerous."

I could be wrong, I admit, but from the television images and descriptions of events in the media, it sounds rather like twaddle to be blaming poor forest management for the Victorian fires.

The impression one gets is that you would have had to perform precautionary clearing/burning of an absolutely huge area of forest to significantly reduce fires fanned by 100kph wind gusts after a bone dry month of heat wave conditions.

UPDATE: Germaine Greer, who seems to be regarded by the British media as the expert on absolutely everything Australian despite not having lived here for what, 4 or 5 decades?, says it is indeed poor forest management that is at fault. However, it also seems that the reason she is writing this is mainly to point out how clever the aborigines were in their fire management of forests.

No wonder there are fights over forestry management when there are such differing agendas swirling around the issue.

Monday, February 09, 2009

A fun career

This Doctor Makes 'House' Calls - WSJ.com

The article is about the young doctor who spends his time coming up with the rare and readily misdiagnosed diseases for "House" episodes. What a fun job that must be.

I rarely get to see the show now, but the medical mystery format is one that I have always enjoyed, even back to Qunicy.

For some reason, there is one episode of Quincy which I can remember clearly - some bad chilli was getting sucked back up via a hose connected to a tap into the water pipes at a sports stadium, causing those getting a drink at a particular water fountain to get botulism. To this day, I do not leave hoses attached to taps sitting in buckets full of rotting food for this very reason.

Odd

Boy, 5, taken by crocodile in Daintree, Queensland

It's a tragedy, no doubt, but it does sound surprising that the kids were allowed to play there at all:

A QUEENSLAND tour guide plunged into a croc-infested mangrove swamp in a desperate bid to save his five-year-old son snatched by a 3m crocodile.

Steve Doble, who owns Daintree Rainforest Rivertrain, flung himself into the waist-deep floodwaters only to find his youngest boy had vanished.

He was alerted by the screams of his older son Ryan, 7, who had to be treated for shock after witnessing the attack.

Jeremy Doble, 5, is missing feared dead after he was taken by the crocodile, believed to be the dominant resident male Goldie, in the swamp behind his family home about 9.15am (AEST).

Locals said the "sweet, gentle-natured" child and his older brother were playing on a boogie board as their father fixed a broken mangrove boardwalk nearby, The Courier-Mail reports.
UPDATE: I should have guessed. The version in the Cairns Post is quite different:
Mr Doble was working on the boardwalk when Ryan’s screams alerted him to the tragedy. The boys were chasing their pet dog and Jeremy jumped into the flooded creek after the animal. Ryan told police he saw a large croc immediately after his brother vanished.
It also says that there were "unconfirmed reports" that the father jumped in after his son.

Such is journalism.

Sunday, February 08, 2009

David Byrne in Brisbane (and elsewhere)

Regular readers may recall that one of my not entirely "conservative" features is my high regard for David Byrne and nearly anything he does. (OK, I don't automatically buy every new CD any more, but his lifetime body of work is incredibly strong.) I recommend his journal again for the quality of the writing and breadth of interest he shows, although he has become a bit slack in updating it lately.

So, proving again that I must be the coolest conservative-ish blogger in Australia (ha ha), I went to his Brisbane concert on Saturday night.

This particular tour, featuring his songs with producer Brian Eno, has been on for a good few months now, getting positive reviews everywhere, and with good reason. It is a more theatrical show than his last tour, with three dancers often on stage doing what might be called somewhat whimsical choreography. David often joins in too, and the effect is a bit like a smaller scale "Stop Making Sense".

I guess I enjoyed the last show a little more, as some Brian Eno produced songs from Talking Heads are not amongst my favourites. On the other hand, some of the songs from their just released CD are immediately appealing. Have a look at this one, for example, and just ignore the first jiggling 15 seconds, it settles down after that:



(I don't know why their isn't more chair choreography done in concerts.)

There was a little less chance for David to stop and talk to the audience this time around, and the relaxed vibe at the last concert was one of its pleasures. But hey, you can't fault the talent of the man; his voice is as strong and likeable as it ever was, and he remains the coolest white haired 56 year old singer on the planet.

Here's a 15 second snippet from Brisbane's concert, notable only for the fact that I took it myself:



And here's a still photo I took during Burning Down the House (err, no bad taste intended, Victorians) performed for some unexplained reason with everyone on stage wearing a tutu:


Someone at the concert has posted a very clear and up close video of a new song which featured some very David-esque choreography. You'll like it if you like that sort of thing.

Ah I can't help myself. Finally here's a very good quality clip from the recent Singapore concert of an old favourite, "Heaven":



OK. I'll stop now.

The slowly revealed tragedy

It's slightly surreal how the death toll from the Victorian fires has risen during the day. Last night it was 40 feared dead; by tomorrow, it seems a good chance that a 100 or more will have been found.

It would seem that there is considerable way to go in educating people who live in high fire danger areas how to react appropriately when a fire is approaching. Still, I guess that even doing the "right" thing and not fleeing in a car when the fire front was too close did not save many people who perished in their houses. (Some areas, such as those suburban areas close to Bendigo, also might not really have been considered by the residents to be at high risk of such devastation.)

Scary photos are over at Caz's. Sympathy and prayers are offered.

Friday, February 06, 2009

Can someone explain this?

Donor - Annual Returns

(It shows the Law Society of NSW donating $16,000 to NSW Labor last financial year. They made no donation to any other party, apparently.) I know some people say that Law Societies are like solicitors unions, but I never expected that they would see any particular benefit in not being at least even handed in political donations.

While we are at it, the page for donations to the Queensland Labor Party shows substantial donations from "Australian Taxation Office" at Chermside. Huh?

Proof of alternative universes

Good Lord. Opinion Dominion knows that it has truly entered Bizarro World when it finds itself agreeing with (most of) Ken Lovell's comments over at LP. (Earlier opinion of Mr Lovell's posting career at Road to Surfdom was expressed here.)

UPDATE: some very sensible commentary here by Harry Clarke on why Ken Henry's views on alternatives to "his" stimulus package should not be taken as sacrosanct.

I would like to know why, amongst journalists who comment on economics, they don't express skepticism of the economists who (by and large) have been caught by surprise by the unfolding events of the last 12 months, yet now sound so certain as to what the "fix" should be.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Many applicants for this priesthood

Found this snippet at the end of an article about a temple in Kyoto:
Fans of religion and alcohol might also enjoy Matsuo-taisha shrine in Arashiyama, Kyoto Prefecture. It's dedicated to the god of sake, and is a place of pilgrimage for sake brewers praying for good fortune. The priests can reportedly outdrink most people, arguing that it's their sacred duty to imbibe.

Something different

There have been too many words around here lately, so here's something different (if not all that new):



There's something a bit disconcerting the first time you see a human shaped robot copying human actions too closely, I find.

It gets worse

Donating a kidney through your vagina or rectum. -By William Saletan - Slate Magazine

If the news earlier this week about a donor kidney being removed through the vagina didn't make you feel queasy enough, William Saletan explains above how the next step (for men) will likely be to try doing it via the rectum. (Germs are no problem: just bag the kidney first.)

Let's all join in a collective sound signifying revulsion now, shall we?

I have a theory: the anal probe claims by some alleged alien abductees are in fact misunderstood prophetic dreams from the future's hospitals. (Short surgeons with masks look like aliens a little, don't they?)

Another Oscar year to ignore

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button review | Film Reviews - Times Online

The big nominee in yet another year of Oscar nominations that the public just doesn't much care about (God we've had a run of Oscar seasons like that the last few years) is Benjamin Button. One reviewer is not impressed:
The film won an astonishing 13 Oscar nominations, just one short of the record set by All About Eve and Titanic. This is mystifying. It is a tedious marathon of smoke and mirrors. In terms of the basic requirements of three-reel drama the film lacks substance, credibility, a decent script and characters you might actually care for. That it should be pitching for the most coveted prizes in cinema is a far stranger fiction than the story itself.
Yet, with typical Hollywood star myopia, Kate Winslet was on Leno the other night saying something like "oh it's been such an extraordinary year for fabulous movies, of course I didn't expect to win.." etc.

(Actually, she did not come across as all that likeable in that appearance. I would link to it if I could, but it appears to be region blocked by NBC. How odd.)

Crazy brave commentary

All this political commentary in the press ("A Leader out of his League" is the ridiculous heading given in The Age to Michelle Grattan's musings) about Malcolm Turnbull's (well, actually, his whole party room's) decision to oppose the governments latest stimulus is just silly guff in my opinion. (It's his "suicide note" according to Mark Bahnisch, who likes to complain about commentary that concentrates on the political game instead of the policy substance, except of course when he thinks the game is running Labor's way.)

I can see no substantial risk to Turnbull if, as appears likely, the government will get the Greens and independents on side in the Senate with some relatively minor variations to the package. The Opposition's opposition is not going to delay it for long. A week or two, maybe? Big deal.

Furthermore, if, as just about everyone from the PM down expects, the economy really tanks and a lot more action is needed, that's further debt on its way. This package alone may not be scaring too many economics commentators with its future debt implications, but the next stimulus might make them more hesitant.

At which point, Turnbull can say "see, I told you not to spend quite so much on the last stimulus, and to target it better."

Besides which, I reckon Rudd just looks like a fake actor when he tries to do "outrage" in Parliament. Just because Howard was able to make hay out of Beazley's delaying tax cuts, the dynamics are quite different now, and people are not going to be readily sucked in to believing all the self-serving ideological dressing on the economic crisis Rudd spent his Christmas holidays apparently dreaming up.

Finally, I see that Kerry O'Brien is continuing the same pandering tone with Kevin Rudd this year. His approach in a Rudd interview is always along the lines "help me to understand why what you say is right." But when it comes to the Liberals it's "clearly you are wrong. Confess!"

UPDATE: Andrew Bolt points out that there are indications that the public is not uniformly rushing to condemn Turnbull's caution, contrary to what most commentators predicted.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Un-informed

Ocean Acidification and Corals - Watts Up With That?

Watts Up With That has become a favourite blog for global warming sceptics, often quoted by Andrew Bolt, Jennifer Marohasy, etc. (I see Jennifer is away for an undefined period; probably to seek a credibility transplant after some of her recent efforts.)

But Watt's Up is spreading its wings to encourage scepticism about ocean acidification, with the above "guest post" by Steven Goddard.

It is, without doubt, the most starkly uninformed sceptical post about ocean acidification I have even seen at a blog that likes to credit itself as having a scientific attitude.

Worthy of Ted Baxter

Hamster labelled a murder suspect | Weird True Freaky | News.com.au

Go to the link to see the amusing news video.

And by the way, it's sad to think that probably half of my readership are too young to know of the Mary Tyler Moore show.

Stimulus issues

One thing seems to be missing so far from commentary on the stimulus package: criticism of the cash handouts.

As I noted only a couple of weeks ago, Peter Martin had belatedly pointed out that the US experience indicated that temporary gifts of cash did not do much to increase consumer spending.

So what do we get now as a big component of stimulus? More immediate cash. I am waiting for Peter Martin's comments on this, as he is yet to express his own opinion.

Oddly, Ross Gittens has seemingly decided that economics is just a magic art that no one can ever truly know anything about anyway:

It's all very well for Gerry Harvey to say the cash splash failed because he saw no sign of it in his stores. The economy is just a bit bigger than Harvey Norman. The fact is we don't yet have most of the figures for what happened in the economy in December, or even the last three months of last year.

And even when we get the figures it won't be easy to detect what effect various government measures have had on them. For instance, since there are no miracle cures, evidence of the economy's continued decline doesn't prove the measures did no good.

To measure accurately the effect of the measures you have to know something we'll never know: what would have happened in the economy had the authorities not done what they did.

As for my take, which is just as good as anyone else's at the moment, the package deserved better targeting; much better targeting.

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Top marks for creativity, at least

Ehud Barak proposes tunnel connecting Gaza to West Bank - Telegraph

Respect your mice

From a report at Physorg.com:
Humans and mice are both good at assessing risk in everyday tasks, according to a study by Rutgers University scientists published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences....

The finding leads Gallistel, professor of psychology and co-director of the Rutgers University Center for Cognitive Science, to conclude that risk assessment is not basically a high-level conscious activity, but one that is programmed into the brains of animals - mice, humans and many others....

"These animals [the mice] were doing something that, on the face of it, was mathematically complicated," Gallistel said.
Seems to me the lesson to take from this is that the banking and investment industry may as well be run by mice. Send them to Wall Street, I say.