As noted at Hot Air, by never-Trumper Allahpundit:
The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%) — even though the House Jan. 6 committee has spent the last week linking Trump to what it called a “seditious conspiracy” to overturn the 2020 election and laying the groundwork for possible criminal prosecution…
Biden’s job approval rating has been atrophying for much of the last year, and the new survey shows that it has never been weaker. A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively…
How bad is it? Many more independents say Biden shouldn’t run again (76 percent) than say Trump shouldn’t (57 percent). Among Biden’s own voters in 2020, more say he shouldn’t run again than say he should, 40/37.
While there will likely be many theories floating around about how this could possibly be correct (not Biden's unpopularity - inflation and an apparent inability to convince the rogue elements in his own Party to put Democrat policy into effect account for that - but the willingness to consider Trump as a better alternative), I really think you have to consider the brokenness of the media landscape to be the major factor.
In any event, I am dubious about the polling of hypothetical contests - it's surely the kind of polling that is most likely to generate off the cuff gut reactions.
And besides, all serious people know it's already clear that Trump's position in history as a danger to democracy and the worst President who ever got into office via a cult following generated by the internet and the Murdoch media is secure. Biden, on the other hand, is likely to be seen as a victim of circumstance, pretty much like Jimmy Carter.
Nonetheless, I would prefer the polling was not like this. It doesn't inspire confidence in the future of the country...
Update: further to the title of this post:
9 comments:
The problem with Biden is he comes across as someone out of his depth. He's too old, makes too many verbal gaffes, and doesn't sound like he has solutions. The problems he is facing are not his fault but that doesn't matter in politics, in the very least he needs to present as a person who at least looks capable of rising to the challenge. The popularity of Trump is in part a reflection of the disappointment with Biden. I never liked Biden as a candidate, he was chosen by the Dems as a safe bet not as a leader.
"The problem with Biden is he comes across as someone out of his depth."
The problem with Trump is that he wasn't even in the pool!
The disturbing thing about the poll is not that it reflects low approval of Biden, but that enough people think a wannabe fascist like Trump is a "better" choice.
As I say, I don't really think this type of polling really deserves to be taken all that seriously, but it's still somewhat concerning nonetheless.
And, by the way, a huge amount of Biden's problems can be laid squarely at the feet of Manchin and Sinema, who genuinely appear to be "Democrats in Name Only".
Steve my fear is that Biden is so uninspiring people will opt for another Trump like figure. Biden wasn't chosen by the Dems to lead but to win. Leading is something the people behind him have always intended to control. Biden's poll numbers have been consistently low. This poll may be problematic but the trend is clear. USA citizens like confident garrulous leaders. Trump made so many idiotic statements but that doesn't matter. So many people never bother to parse what politicians are saying, they more for the feelz and especially the projection of confidence. I don't think Trump will win again but the Dems need to take stock because they could face a huge backlash in the mid-term elections.
I doubt Trump will return, even as the candidate. A criminal prosecution is looking pretty likely, and looking like having a pretty good chance of success.
The turning of the Murdoch press is a poor sign for him too - apart from Fox News, where I don't think the Murdochs can work out how to get the evening line up to change their views while saving face - it would seem the Murdoch press will not run to his defence if he faces prosecution.
As for the mid terms - there is the matter of the Roe decision. The best thing for the Republicans would be if one of the judges changes his or her mind, and Roe remains. But how much a decision against Roe will motivate young Democrats to vote is unclear - I have a hunch though that it would only take a couple of high profile deaths of mothers who had abortion delayed due to restrictive new laws, and it might be a more significant factor than currently polling suggests.
Agree re Roe. The GOP is celebrating the possibility of an overturn but it will cost them at the ballot box. Recently in an interview most of 15 young women stated they had known someone who had an abortion.
Trump's done but there are plenty of copycats waiting to take over his role. It will be interesting to see how that turns out. The Dems must find someone to replace Biden at the next election. To be fair to Biden he is facing issues that are out of his control, much like the ALP here. Being fair though has little to do with electoral success.
Another possible cat amongst the pigeons: if Trump is charged criminally, it would not be at all surprising to see Right wing violent protests (or bombings, or some such) about it. Most commentators are speculating that the country is not so much heading to a proper civil war, but something more like a mini version of "the Troubles" in Ireland, and Trump facing a criminal charge is something that I reckon could spark that off.
But I would also expect it to motivate a strong Democrat voter turnout in which ever election comes next, regardless of who the Republican candidate for President may be.
There is certainly a risk of Trumpies going postal. My US FBFs come across as very pessimistic about the state of affairs. They're expecting something like massive social unrest and that isn't just about Trump. I don't understand the zeitgeist over there but some of my US FBFs are well read and intelligent. They in particular are very concerned. I don't know what they are perceiving. They are afraid, very afraid.
FBF is "Facebook Friend"? Hadn't heard that abbreviation before.
You can explain everything by stopping lying for just one minute and admitting that there was a coup. John what are YOU doing going along with the bullshit? You surely know that there can never be a voting spike in a proper election. I expect Steve to get confused between the score and the scoreboard. What is your story?
Just fucking own up to it that there was a coup. The "insurrection" photo opportunity and all the jailings are doubling down on the coup.
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