Monday, May 19, 2008
A history of Pebble Bed Reactors
There's a blog run by Robert Hargraves devoted entirely to Pebble Bed Reactors. It was dormant for a while, but he appears to have revived it recently, and he's got a link to an interesting recent article by an engineer about the history of the reactors. Well worth a read, and I'll add the blog to my links soon.
McCain has fun
Found via the always interesting Tigerhawk, here's John McCain doing an amusing short sketch on Saturday Night Live:
Glad to see he doesn't take himself too seriously.
Glad to see he doesn't take himself too seriously.
Just as I said
Rudd and Swan fudged paltry spending cuts | smh.com.au
My initial reaction to the budget was to call it a con, because of the difference between how it was spun and what it actually did.
Ross Gittins today makes out a very convincing and detailed case that I was right.
My initial reaction to the budget was to call it a con, because of the difference between how it was spun and what it actually did.
Ross Gittins today makes out a very convincing and detailed case that I was right.
Bring it on
Turnbull denies fuel excise leak | NEWS.com.au
I didn't see Insiders yesterday, but heard part of it on the radio. Gerard Henderson was being scathing of Nelson's petrol tax excise policy. Now it appears the preliminary fun and games of a leadership challenge are probably underway.
I guess the plan may well be to see if Nelson can increase his approval rating to anything significant in the next poll. If he is still Mr Around-Ten-Percent, I really can't see the point of letting him hang around any longer, even if the ideal may have been to let Turnbull get more experience as shadow treasurer first.
Nelson is a liability as leader; he should go.
I didn't see Insiders yesterday, but heard part of it on the radio. Gerard Henderson was being scathing of Nelson's petrol tax excise policy. Now it appears the preliminary fun and games of a leadership challenge are probably underway.
I guess the plan may well be to see if Nelson can increase his approval rating to anything significant in the next poll. If he is still Mr Around-Ten-Percent, I really can't see the point of letting him hang around any longer, even if the ideal may have been to let Turnbull get more experience as shadow treasurer first.
Nelson is a liability as leader; he should go.
Eye candy
Wild China, a 6 part BBC nature documentary, started on the ABC last night, and it was spectacularly good to look at. Why is the BBC so accomplished at this sort of thing?
Highly recommended.
Highly recommended.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Begging to differ
Shirley Hazzard: Greatest novelist of the 20th century? - Times Online
Based on Bryan Appleyard's high regard for Shirley Hazzard, I recently bought her last novel "The Great Fire." Now Bryan's gone and interviewed her (see above link), and his admiration is set out clearly there.
Sadly, I am almost half way through the novel and am finding it close to unbearable; last night I nearly decided to simply give up.
I don't mind the more ornate style of writing of your typical mid 20th century author: I have read nearly everything of Evelyn Waugh, and quite admire Brideshead Revisited in particular. In the last few years, I finally got around to The Great Gatsby, and while I felt the material was somewhat slight, I thought the writing had some of the same appeal as Waugh's. Going back further, Conrad can be a bit of struggle for me, but I could still understand him.
The problem with Hazzard, who is old enough to have started writing mid last century, is that I keep finding apparently carefully constructed sentences or paragraphs (she took 20 years to finish it) which none the less I have to re-read to discern the information or mood they are intended to convene. Even then I am not always successful in getting her point.
I don't think I am a particularly thick reader. As she has generally been very well reviewed, I have to give examples to try to validate my complaint.
This first paragraph is, I think, important to the theme of the novel, set shortly after the end of WWII; but that's only my guess, given the way it is written:
I learn from Appleyard's interview that much of the novel must have been inspired by Hazzard's real life adventures as a young women in post war Asia. She also makes it clear that she was an artistically inclined youth who longed to escape Australia, and that explains why she has one major character who views the country the same way:
No, I restrict my complaint to her prose style, which I guess is a result of what happens when an author keeps revising her writing over twenty years: it becomes elaborate but tedious and unclear.
The review of the book at Slate I can partially agree with. It notes that:
Actually, now that I read more of the reviews, a lot of them do seem to acknowledge flaws, yet somehow they still come around to forgiving them. Take this from another review:
Bryan Appleyard wonders why she isn't better known, but it doesn't surprise me at all.
Based on Bryan Appleyard's high regard for Shirley Hazzard, I recently bought her last novel "The Great Fire." Now Bryan's gone and interviewed her (see above link), and his admiration is set out clearly there.
Sadly, I am almost half way through the novel and am finding it close to unbearable; last night I nearly decided to simply give up.
I don't mind the more ornate style of writing of your typical mid 20th century author: I have read nearly everything of Evelyn Waugh, and quite admire Brideshead Revisited in particular. In the last few years, I finally got around to The Great Gatsby, and while I felt the material was somewhat slight, I thought the writing had some of the same appeal as Waugh's. Going back further, Conrad can be a bit of struggle for me, but I could still understand him.
The problem with Hazzard, who is old enough to have started writing mid last century, is that I keep finding apparently carefully constructed sentences or paragraphs (she took 20 years to finish it) which none the less I have to re-read to discern the information or mood they are intended to convene. Even then I am not always successful in getting her point.
I don't think I am a particularly thick reader. As she has generally been very well reviewed, I have to give examples to try to validate my complaint.
This first paragraph is, I think, important to the theme of the novel, set shortly after the end of WWII; but that's only my guess, given the way it is written:
In the pattern of disruption that had been Aldred Leith's life for years, arrival had kept its interest. Excitement dwindled, curiosity had increased. Occasion revived an illusion of discovery, as if one woke in a strange room to wonder afreash not only where but who one was; to shed assumptions, even certainties. On the sea that evening, such expectation was negilible. Earlier in the day, in the swaying train, Leith had written to a wartime comrade: 'Peace forces us to invent our future selves.' Fatuity, he thought now, and in his mind tore the letter up. There was enough introspection to go round, whole systems of inwardness. The deficiency didn't lie there. To deny the external and unpredicatable made self-possession hardly worth the price. Like settling for a future without coincidence or luck.I hope someone out there agrees with me, but I find that to be a semi-opaque mess; not good writing at all.
I learn from Appleyard's interview that much of the novel must have been inspired by Hazzard's real life adventures as a young women in post war Asia. She also makes it clear that she was an artistically inclined youth who longed to escape Australia, and that explains why she has one major character who views the country the same way:
He and Rysom had been raised on the Australian myths of desecration - on tales of fabulous vomiting into glove compartments or punch bowls, of silence ruptured by obscene sound: the legends of forlorn men avenging themselves on an empty continent, which, in its vast removal, did not hear or judge them.Of course, this section makes Hazzard sound like a snob too; but who knows, maybe I would not have been entirely happy in mid 20th century Australia either.
These things, Peter Exley knew, who had been born and raised to it all, and endangered by it. Who had released himself into the lavish hospitality of art. Because of his own hairbreadth escape, the condition did not excite his compassion: the attack on whatever withheld itself in mystery - a woman, a culture, a work of art; the sense of private self. All could be exorcised with a beer and a jeer; the mockery, like the drink, being passing assuagement only, of the wound that would not heal.
No, I restrict my complaint to her prose style, which I guess is a result of what happens when an author keeps revising her writing over twenty years: it becomes elaborate but tedious and unclear.
The review of the book at Slate I can partially agree with. It notes that:
For all her subtlety and depth, Hazzard does not create memorable or particularly believable characters, or, if she manages to, she doesn't seem to favor them....Her style is described as "oblique", whereas I definitely would say "opaque".
Moreover, all of Hazzard's characters lapse at intervals into unconvincingly poetical speech: "Decent people, but the place is laconic. Surprised by peace" is how the old scholar describes conquered Hiroshima to Leith upon first acquaintance.
Actually, now that I read more of the reviews, a lot of them do seem to acknowledge flaws, yet somehow they still come around to forgiving them. Take this from another review:
Hazzard's prose is crisp and whittled, sometimes even cryptic. We never get a fully fleshed story of Leith's heroics, nor of the mysterious mentor, a former Japanese prisoner who, on his deathbed, presciently foretells Leith's passage back to a personal life. Horrors are hinted at but never dwelt upon. Hazzard revels in oblique distillation, but she is by no means a minimalist. Her sentences are rich in clauses, and her observations run deep, as do her characters' self-awareness and interior lives.There's that word "oblique" again. And I would not say that her prose is "sometimes" cryptic; it happens on about every second page, and I just find that intolerable.
Bryan Appleyard wonders why she isn't better known, but it doesn't surprise me at all.
Confusing Fisk
It's hard to tell why The Independent continues to pay Robert Fisk. His style is increasingly confused, and in dire need of editing. Here are some recent examples.
First, talking about a nice meal he was able to have despite the recent violence in Lebanon:
If you need more convincing of his self-indulgent and increasingly opaque style, try the latest column. It contains such gems of journalism such as this:
First, talking about a nice meal he was able to have despite the recent violence in Lebanon:
But I brought up the tiny matter of the little massacre in northern Lebanon in which 10 or 12 militiamen were captured and then murdered before being handed over to the Lebanese army. Their bodies were – I fear this is correct – mutilated after death.Fisk should have more self loathing about his writing style than his choice of lunch."They deserved it," the elegant woman on my left said. I was appalled, overwhelmed, disgusted, deeply saddened. How could she say such a thing? But this is Lebanon and a huge number of people – 62 by my count – have been killed in the past few days and all the monsters buried in the mass graves of the civil war have been dug up.
I chose escalope du veau at the Cocteau – I am sickened by how quickly I decided on it – and tried to explain to my dear Lebanese friends (and they are all dear to me) how much fury I have witnessed in Lebanon.
If you need more convincing of his self-indulgent and increasingly opaque style, try the latest column. It contains such gems of journalism such as this:
Then, talking about an exhibition of Lebanese civil war posters, he writes:So let us start at the beginning (be that the Ottoman, French, post-Versailles beginning of Lebanese history). Or let us begin yesterday, when it was broadcast that two Hizbollah members (for which read Shia Muslims) were knifed to death in Aley by Druze Muslims. Outrageous, if true. So let us begin with the statement that the Lebanese army command has decided to let Brigadier General Wafiq Chucair remain in command of security at Beirut airport. And that the Lebanese army commander – General Michel Sulaiman (the favourite for president if parliament, after 18 sittings, decide to choose one) – was determined to restore "law and order".
Thus (if the reader is not already confused) we should advance to the near-present.
Whatever you think of his politics, you would surely have to agree that his writing has become awful.And when I walked round that exhibition, I thought – yes – that this war could never be recreated. I even contemplated an article saying that there would not be another civil war here. On reflection, I should have sent that story to this paper. For despite everything that we have witnessed these past three days (or two years, or the 30 years or 2,000 years, you take your pick), I don't think the Lebanese want another civil war.
Five days ago, I recorded an interview for Saad Hariri's Future channel about my new book, and told my interviewer that I did not think there would be another civil war in Lebanon. Because Hizbollah has cut the cables of the channel, there will be no programme. "You did it for nothing," the young Lebanese woman interviewer told me yesterday. Yes, I think she was right. But I still suspect that the Lebanese will not tolerate another civil conflict.
Now it's engineers
High-Tech Japanese, Running Out of Engineers - New York Times
First, it was doctors, now it's engineers. Of course, the basic problem is, Japan is going to run out of people soon. It's one of the nations that forgot to have children, and it's kind of sad to watch.
First, it was doctors, now it's engineers. Of course, the basic problem is, Japan is going to run out of people soon. It's one of the nations that forgot to have children, and it's kind of sad to watch.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Television love
My five hours with Sony's amazing XEL-1 OLED television.
This is a pretty amusing article by someone who is deeply impressed by the picture quality of the small Sony OLED TVs that you can now buy overseas. He writes:
This is a pretty amusing article by someone who is deeply impressed by the picture quality of the small Sony OLED TVs that you can now buy overseas. He writes:
Like some awesome hybrid of a plasma screen, an LCD, and a Holodeck, the picture on the OLED (it stands for organic light-emitting diode, which means, I think, that the TV is alive) is demonstrably clearer than anything I've seen before. The movie Hairspray is playing when I arrive, and its crisp luminosity makes me forget that Hairspray is absolutely terrible. A colonoscopy video would be compelling on OLED.The article doesn't mention, though, the question marks raised about the display's longevity. (Sony claims 30,000 hours to get to half-brightness, but a test company claims it will be more like 17,000.) Still, I guess if you're rich enough to buy an 11 inch screen TV for US$2,500, you're reach enough to buy something better in 8 years anyway.
There are about 20 big-screen televisions lining the walls of the room, high-definition LCDs and plasmas and whatnot. Compared with the OLED, they all look like they're covered in thin layers of gauze.
A deeper conspiracy
Unleashed: Unanswered 9/11 questions
What's this? ABC Unleashed is now open to spreading the poisonous blatherings of 9/11 Truthers? This is how my taxpayer funded ABC is using it's money?
Ah, but I suspect there is actually a deeper conspiracy going on. Just how seriously can anyone take a conspiracist with the first name "Hereward"?
What's this? ABC Unleashed is now open to spreading the poisonous blatherings of 9/11 Truthers? This is how my taxpayer funded ABC is using it's money?
Ah, but I suspect there is actually a deeper conspiracy going on. Just how seriously can anyone take a conspiracist with the first name "Hereward"?
Christine Kerr on the alcopops
The real motive behind the alcopops tax hike | The Australian
Christian Kerr sets out a very strong case for very strong cynicism over the alcopops tax increase.
I had been wondering what proportion of alcopops are based on rum and dark spirits, which are almost exclusively marketed to men. Kerr supplies the answer: about 75%.
This indicates that the increase is largely off target, if the concern is to reduce binge drinking in women in particular.
It may also mean that the move is much more unpopular with the electorate than I first imagined, so something good may come from it after all...:-)
Christian Kerr sets out a very strong case for very strong cynicism over the alcopops tax increase.
I had been wondering what proportion of alcopops are based on rum and dark spirits, which are almost exclusively marketed to men. Kerr supplies the answer: about 75%.
This indicates that the increase is largely off target, if the concern is to reduce binge drinking in women in particular.
It may also mean that the move is much more unpopular with the electorate than I first imagined, so something good may come from it after all...:-)
Friday, May 16, 2008
Warning: religion
Tonight's very distressing scenes on the television from the earthquake affected areas of China reminded me of a recent article at First Things, inspired by the recent Burma tragedy, about theodicy.
Wikipedia explains that theodicy is " a specific branch of theology and philosophy that attempts to reconcile the existence of evil or suffering in the world with the belief in an omniscient, omnipotent, and benevolent God, i.e., the problem of evil."
There are several ways a Christian can seek to explain the problem of evil, but I think I am probably now more inclined to take the Jewish/Kantian view, as explained in the Wikipedia article, that it is a bit presumptuous for humans to believe they can work it out at all.
Still, the First Things article I mentioned struck me as expressing very elegantly the emotional power of a theodicy that is based on a traditional Christian belief in real evil and a Fallen creation. It is written by David B Hart, said to be an Eastern Orthodox theologian, and while it is all worthwhile reading, the last paragraph sums it up nicely:
Wikipedia explains that theodicy is " a specific branch of theology and philosophy that attempts to reconcile the existence of evil or suffering in the world with the belief in an omniscient, omnipotent, and benevolent God, i.e., the problem of evil."
There are several ways a Christian can seek to explain the problem of evil, but I think I am probably now more inclined to take the Jewish/Kantian view, as explained in the Wikipedia article, that it is a bit presumptuous for humans to believe they can work it out at all.
Still, the First Things article I mentioned struck me as expressing very elegantly the emotional power of a theodicy that is based on a traditional Christian belief in real evil and a Fallen creation. It is written by David B Hart, said to be an Eastern Orthodox theologian, and while it is all worthwhile reading, the last paragraph sums it up nicely:
As for comfort, when we seek it, I can imagine none greater than the happy knowledge that when I see the death of a child I do not see the face of God, but the face of His enemy. It is not a faith that would necessarily satisfy Ivan Karamazov, but neither is it one that his arguments can defeat: for it has set us free from optimism, and taught us hope instead. We can rejoice that we are saved not through the immanent mechanisms of history and nature, but by grace; that God will not unite all of history’s many strands in one great synthesis, but will judge much of history false and damnable; that He will not simply reveal the sublime logic of fallen nature, but will strike off the fetters in which creation languishes; and that, rather than showing us how the tears of a small girl suffering in the dark were necessary for the building of the Kingdom, He will instead raise her up and wipe away all tears from her eyes — and there shall be no more death, nor sorrow, nor crying, nor any more pain, for the former things will have passed away, and He that sits upon the throne will say, “Behold, I make all things new.”I feel a little sorry for people who have never felt the emotional appeal of such a belief system.
Solar for the poor means solar for no one
Solar power rebate change cools public demand | The Australian
Seems a good point. While there was an argument for changing the rebate system, this method seems a bit perverse.
On talk back radio yesterday, I heard a caller who was about to install a 2 kilowatt system at an (after rebate) cost of $14,000 arguing that it was only the higher income home owners who would even consider installing panels at this cost. He said he was only doing it to make his contribution to reducing greenhouse gases; not because it was economically viable.A DECISION to break a pre-election promise on solar panel rebates is already reaping havoc, with cancelled orders and staff laid off.
Phillip May and his partner, Sophia Moody, are seething after the decision in Tuesday's budget to introduce a means test for an $8000 rebate when household income exceeds $100,000.
Adding to the insult, the rebate introduced by the Howard government first came about because Labor had promised one and that it would be available for households earning less than $250,000.
"This has kicked the guts out of our company," Mr May said last night.
The two directors of small Queanbeyan-based installation firm Solartec have been fielding calls all day from would-be clients who now won't go ahead with energy-saving panels.
Seems a good point. While there was an argument for changing the rebate system, this method seems a bit perverse.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Pointless replies
Why is there prominence given to Budget replies, especially when the Opposition is years away from regaining power in the lower house? I never watched a Labor one during the Howard years, and I didn't watch Nelson tonight.
The Coalition's decision to oppose the "alcopop" tax increase is not going to win much public favour, and I doubt that the 17 - 25 year old demographic of young women who will most appreciate the move are the Coalition's natural constituency anyway.
Did Nelson mention pensions? It seemed to me, listening to talkback radio on the first couple of days after the Budget, that the most common complaint was that the nation had a spare $20 billion that the government wanted to save for future spending, but it couldn't increase aged pensions.
So, what can you do with a spare few billion dollars? According to this Liberal Party publication from 2007 (which is actually full of interesting graphs and stuff about how the Coalition was benefiting pensioners), Australia is spending about $24 billion a year on the aged pension for about 2 million recipients.
A 10% increase in the pension would therefore appear to cost roughly $2.4 billion. Of course, with the aging population, such an increase might be more problematic for the future; but then again, when will all that superannuation sloshing around start to help the government bottom line?
So, yes it does seem there was some room for improvement to pension rates, although I guess it would be better to add the support in some other fashion than a straight rate rise.
The Coalition's decision to oppose the "alcopop" tax increase is not going to win much public favour, and I doubt that the 17 - 25 year old demographic of young women who will most appreciate the move are the Coalition's natural constituency anyway.
Did Nelson mention pensions? It seemed to me, listening to talkback radio on the first couple of days after the Budget, that the most common complaint was that the nation had a spare $20 billion that the government wanted to save for future spending, but it couldn't increase aged pensions.
So, what can you do with a spare few billion dollars? According to this Liberal Party publication from 2007 (which is actually full of interesting graphs and stuff about how the Coalition was benefiting pensioners), Australia is spending about $24 billion a year on the aged pension for about 2 million recipients.
A 10% increase in the pension would therefore appear to cost roughly $2.4 billion. Of course, with the aging population, such an increase might be more problematic for the future; but then again, when will all that superannuation sloshing around start to help the government bottom line?
So, yes it does seem there was some room for improvement to pension rates, although I guess it would be better to add the support in some other fashion than a straight rate rise.
In other movie news...
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Movie Reviews, Pictures - Rotten Tomatoes
Early reviews for Prince Caspian are pretty positive. Yay!
I don't know why they chose to open a few days ahead of the Indiana Jones movie. It's being absolutely swamped in publicity terms.
I guess the hope is that the pretty rock solid American Christian audience that I suspect accounted for a lot of the first Narnia movie's box office success is pretty much guaranteed to see this sometime during summer, regardless of when it opens. (Of course, The Lion,the Witch and the Wardrobe deserved its success anyway.)
Early reviews for Prince Caspian are pretty positive. Yay!
I don't know why they chose to open a few days ahead of the Indiana Jones movie. It's being absolutely swamped in publicity terms.
I guess the hope is that the pretty rock solid American Christian audience that I suspect accounted for a lot of the first Narnia movie's box office success is pretty much guaranteed to see this sometime during summer, regardless of when it opens. (Of course, The Lion,the Witch and the Wardrobe deserved its success anyway.)
Least anticipated film of the season
Florist detour and frock stars come up smelling of roses - Film - Entertainment
The only point I can see in having a "Sex and the City" movie made is for women to have some sort of clear test as to their new boyfriend's sexuality. The number of straight men willingly in a cinema to see it (or, at least, there at their own suggestion) will be vanishingly small .
And really, was there ever a worse look in a dress than the open cut thing that bony-chested what's-her-name is wearing in the photo at the link? (Oh dear: I have commented in a bitchy sounding way on women's fashion. No, no, I don't want to see the movie, honest.)
UPDATE: here's a pretty funny column on the same topic, which repeats this comment which apparently appeared after the movie's review in The Times:
The only point I can see in having a "Sex and the City" movie made is for women to have some sort of clear test as to their new boyfriend's sexuality. The number of straight men willingly in a cinema to see it (or, at least, there at their own suggestion) will be vanishingly small .
And really, was there ever a worse look in a dress than the open cut thing that bony-chested what's-her-name is wearing in the photo at the link? (Oh dear: I have commented in a bitchy sounding way on women's fashion. No, no, I don't want to see the movie, honest.)
UPDATE: here's a pretty funny column on the same topic, which repeats this comment which apparently appeared after the movie's review in The Times:
I don't think SATC is just for girls. I am a reasonably well-adjusted bloke and I am looking forward to seeing the film with my girlfriend. I am then looking forward to poking my eyes out with red-hot pokers, burning my skin off, and rolling around in salt for a while."—Phil Mann, Newcastle upon Tyne.
Devine Vs Wodak
Puff goes the drug liberaliser - Miranda Devine - Opinion - smh.com.au
It's interesting watching the argument between Miranda Devine and Dr Alex Wodak on the question of marijuana laws. Seems to me Miranda is clearly winning.
It's interesting watching the argument between Miranda Devine and Dr Alex Wodak on the question of marijuana laws. Seems to me Miranda is clearly winning.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Didn't Nicola get the memo?
On the 7.30 Report on Monday, Kerry O'Brien had this exchange with Health Minister Nicola Roxon:
Also in the Kerry O'Brien interview, there's a sign that he's starting to get sick of the way the Rudd government media manipulation works:
KERRY O’BRIEN: Have you consulted the States on this? You've told them of your decision are they relaxed and comfortable about the prospect of up to 400,000 extra people coming back into the public hospital net?On the ABC today:
NICOLA ROXON: Those are estimates from the health insurance industry. They haven't provided us with the basis upon which they make those estimates or whether, in fact, those people will present at public hospitals.
KERRY O’BRIEN: At least they've given us some figures, you haven't given me any.
It's about time our PM had them both in his office for a cup of tea and introduction, isn't it?Treasurer Wayne Swan has confirmed his own department predicts 485,000 people will dump their private healthcare cover under changes to the Medicare surcharge that were confirmed in last night's Federal Budget.
The figure is well above what the industry was predicting as a result of the surcharge income threshold doubling to $100,000 for singles and $150,000 for couples.
Also in the Kerry O'Brien interview, there's a sign that he's starting to get sick of the way the Rudd government media manipulation works:
KERRY O’BRIEN: The decision on the health fund tax levy was leaked to both Fairfax and News Limited newspapers for Saturday morning and then Wayne Swan confirmed it on radio. Are you comfortable that this kind of media manipulation has now become commonplace? Why not, if you want it out, why not just announce it if you want it out there before the Budget? I would have thought that would be a more honest way to do it, wouldn't it?Why doesn't he ask pointed questions like this to Kevin Rudd himself, to whom he still gives a puzzlingly easy ride?
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Budget comments
Short summary: it's all a con.
A lot of the reaction tonight is pretty positive, but those taking a more cynical view seem to me (of course!) to have the more realistic take on it.
This summary here on ABC Online seems pretty right. It's not taking spending cuts seriously at all. Of course, as Turnbull had warned, severe spending cuts were not necessarily good in current circumstances anyway. However, (again as Turnbull complained tonight,) Swan was selling the need for "inflation fighting" spending cuts before today, but he hasn't really delivered on his own promise.
There was an economist writing in the Courier Mail today who argued that assessing the likely effect of a budget on inflation was extremely difficult and depends on assessing the effect of all cuts and spending programs in the entire budget. This makes a lot of common sense, but I can find no link.
In any event, it seems clear that the $2 billion net savings in the budget as delivered will make next to no difference to inflation. Are people forgetting that only a couple of days ago Access Economics was claiming that every $3 billion dollars saved would prevent a .25% interest increase? Some months ago, Ross Gittins claimed that it would take an extra $10 billion in surplus (or a surplus of 2.3% of GDP) to have the equivalent effect. I think I heard that this budget has a surplus of 1.8% of GDP. Therefore, even on Access Economics more 'optimistic' view of how effective spending cuts could be, any praise for this being an inflation fighting budget seems distinctly premature.
On the nature of some of the savings, Alan Kohler made this interesting point I haven't seen elsewhere:
As I say, all a con.
On the other big political issue of the week (the Medicare surcharge levy adjustment), there is no denying that there was a logical argument for increasing the limits, as there is with taking bracket creep into account in tax tables. But also as with tax bracket creep, governments that adjust too quickly are not really helping their bottom line.
Given that there was no adjustment for 10 years, some adjustment was justifiable now. But to take it from $50,000 to $100,000 for a single person is just ideology at work, not logic. (I've had a quick look at CPI figures for 97 to 07, and it looks to me like $67,500 would be the correct inflation adjusted figure.)
Isn't that effective "tax cut" going to have an inflationary effect?
There's no doubt a significant number of single people will first drop out of private health insurance because of this change, followed by more married couples when the funds increase their already barely tolerable premiums because of the loss of the single people.
It's the first case of a unexpected and clearly bad idea borne of Labor ideology for this government. As Tony Abbott ably argued, it is very likely to make dealing with the problems within the public health system much worse in the long run.
UPDATE: I typed this last night then forgot to post it. I see now that Andrew Bolt was making the same points. Peter Hartcher makes the case for it actually being bad for inflation.
UPDATE 2: I hear that Malcolm Turnbull is running with the case that it is actually going to stimulate inflation, and he may be right.
So, to get my criticisms in order:
It's not that I was looking for a budget that did cut into people's income (eg by not delivering the tax cuts,) but the government is trying to sell the budget on pure spin, as Bolt says.
Swan is selling increased tax as a "saving": does that really make sense? Some of the other savings may well be illusory too, as noted above.
Putting the surplus into funds to be spent in future might not be such a bad thing, provided the process of identifying infrastructure spending comes up with sound projects. From that point of view, the budget is a bit of a "wait and see" proposition, as it may or may work well in the future.
It's not a budget that deserves strong condemnation; on the other hand it is not one that deserves praise either.
It is definitely the most highly "spun" budget we have seen for many years.
A lot of the reaction tonight is pretty positive, but those taking a more cynical view seem to me (of course!) to have the more realistic take on it.
This summary here on ABC Online seems pretty right. It's not taking spending cuts seriously at all. Of course, as Turnbull had warned, severe spending cuts were not necessarily good in current circumstances anyway. However, (again as Turnbull complained tonight,) Swan was selling the need for "inflation fighting" spending cuts before today, but he hasn't really delivered on his own promise.
There was an economist writing in the Courier Mail today who argued that assessing the likely effect of a budget on inflation was extremely difficult and depends on assessing the effect of all cuts and spending programs in the entire budget. This makes a lot of common sense, but I can find no link.
In any event, it seems clear that the $2 billion net savings in the budget as delivered will make next to no difference to inflation. Are people forgetting that only a couple of days ago Access Economics was claiming that every $3 billion dollars saved would prevent a .25% interest increase? Some months ago, Ross Gittins claimed that it would take an extra $10 billion in surplus (or a surplus of 2.3% of GDP) to have the equivalent effect. I think I heard that this budget has a surplus of 1.8% of GDP. Therefore, even on Access Economics more 'optimistic' view of how effective spending cuts could be, any praise for this being an inflation fighting budget seems distinctly premature.
On the nature of some of the savings, Alan Kohler made this interesting point I haven't seen elsewhere:
One of the big savings measures is a bit of a fiddle though. The cancellation of the $959 million “Australia Connected” fund that was awarded to Singtel Optus and Elders has been counted as a saving, but the $4.7 billion National Broadband Network amount that replaces it is not counted as an expense because it hasn’t been spent yet and is not detailed in the forward estimates.And on the point of the "future funds," which really are there just to delay large infrastructure spending until the lead up to the next election, the Crikey budget blog notes this:
...Wayne Swan today indicated both the capital and interest would be spent on appropriate projects. Given the expected inflation environment over the next few years – and the fact that, when it comes to infrastructure, we are suddenly playing catch-up for years of State Government neglect – it’s hard to work out how expenditure by these funds won’t have a similar inflationary impact several years hence as they would now.The Opposition has made the point that its education endowment fund was a permanent fund that earned ongoing income to upgrade universities; it was not simply a pool of capital to be spent and disappear over a few years.
As I say, all a con.
On the other big political issue of the week (the Medicare surcharge levy adjustment), there is no denying that there was a logical argument for increasing the limits, as there is with taking bracket creep into account in tax tables. But also as with tax bracket creep, governments that adjust too quickly are not really helping their bottom line.
Given that there was no adjustment for 10 years, some adjustment was justifiable now. But to take it from $50,000 to $100,000 for a single person is just ideology at work, not logic. (I've had a quick look at CPI figures for 97 to 07, and it looks to me like $67,500 would be the correct inflation adjusted figure.)
Isn't that effective "tax cut" going to have an inflationary effect?
There's no doubt a significant number of single people will first drop out of private health insurance because of this change, followed by more married couples when the funds increase their already barely tolerable premiums because of the loss of the single people.
It's the first case of a unexpected and clearly bad idea borne of Labor ideology for this government. As Tony Abbott ably argued, it is very likely to make dealing with the problems within the public health system much worse in the long run.
UPDATE: I typed this last night then forgot to post it. I see now that Andrew Bolt was making the same points. Peter Hartcher makes the case for it actually being bad for inflation.
UPDATE 2: I hear that Malcolm Turnbull is running with the case that it is actually going to stimulate inflation, and he may be right.
So, to get my criticisms in order:
It's not that I was looking for a budget that did cut into people's income (eg by not delivering the tax cuts,) but the government is trying to sell the budget on pure spin, as Bolt says.
Swan is selling increased tax as a "saving": does that really make sense? Some of the other savings may well be illusory too, as noted above.
Putting the surplus into funds to be spent in future might not be such a bad thing, provided the process of identifying infrastructure spending comes up with sound projects. From that point of view, the budget is a bit of a "wait and see" proposition, as it may or may work well in the future.
It's not a budget that deserves strong condemnation; on the other hand it is not one that deserves praise either.
It is definitely the most highly "spun" budget we have seen for many years.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Slow blogging
Work, and a need for deep meditation in my underground bunker in preparation for the forthcoming release of a couple of unusually highly anticipated movies, is likely to keep me from posting much for a week.
Also, for whatever reason, I have been finding it harder to find particularly "blog worthy" stuff on the internet in the past few weeks. (Hence my need to post on the rather mundane topic of rating the Indiana Jones movies. Last night, I watched another vaguely remembered Dean Martin and Jerry Lewis movie - Sailor Beware - with my son, and enjoyed it a lot. I am tempted to try to explain here why, but I'm not particularly good at that style of writing anyway.)
Anyway, there is likely to be something in the Budget that I will write about, so don't go away for too long.
Also, for whatever reason, I have been finding it harder to find particularly "blog worthy" stuff on the internet in the past few weeks. (Hence my need to post on the rather mundane topic of rating the Indiana Jones movies. Last night, I watched another vaguely remembered Dean Martin and Jerry Lewis movie - Sailor Beware - with my son, and enjoyed it a lot. I am tempted to try to explain here why, but I'm not particularly good at that style of writing anyway.)
Anyway, there is likely to be something in the Budget that I will write about, so don't go away for too long.
Moving CO2
Carbon Dioxide Capture And Storage: Grasping At Straws In The Climate Debate?
This short article argues that there is strong reason to be skeptical of CO2 storage being able to be done at the scale really required to be effective:
This short article argues that there is strong reason to be skeptical of CO2 storage being able to be done at the scale really required to be effective:
The Climate Panel sees CCS as offering great potential. In various scenarios it accounts for between 15 and 55 percent of the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2100...The problem is, according to Anders Hansson, that CCS is still a relatively untested method.
“There are a number of small facilities, in Norway, for instance, where they capture and store a million tons of carbon dioxide per year. Swedish Vattenfall is starting a pilot facility in eastern German this summer.”
Globally, a total of some millions of tons per year is being stored today within the framework of CCS. But to live up to the hopes placed on CCS requires the storage of several billion tons. In other words, this involves gargantuan volumes. In fact, carbon dioxide would be the world’s largest transported good.
“In full scale this technology only exists in the imaginations of the people developing it,” says Anders Hansson. “It’s overly optimistic to place such great faith in it, considering all the uncertainties found in the scientific literature.”
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Back to the egg
Another year, another column from Tracee Hutchison about childlessness, and her resentment that politicians tend to concentrate spending on supporting families.
Last year, Tracee said this (in reference to Bill Heffernan's famous "barren" comment about Julia Gillard):
I'm not unsympathetic to the sorrow that a single woman in her early middle age may feel at the realisation that they probably are not going to ever have a kid. (Although, as I have said before, I don't know why many modern women who know they want children will still waste years and years sleeping with partners who won't commit to the idea.)
That said, I don't know that Tracee exactly gives credibility to her argument that single people are "ignored" by government by explaining first that she walks this emotional precipice when someone just tries to make small talk with her:
Last year, Tracee said this (in reference to Bill Heffernan's famous "barren" comment about Julia Gillard):
Exactly as I predicted, the Labor Party attitude is not pleasing her either. From today's column:Despite John Howard's and Peter Costello's attempts to distance themselves from their wayward senator's latest spray, they are the culprits of turning the family values mantra into political paydirt and their imminent budget sweeteners to families will reinforce it.
Forget about the clever country we once aspired to be, we've become the conception country.
Why should single, childless people, many of whom are struggling to find relevance in a kids-and-couple dominant culture, be forced to pay for other people's children through a combination of taxes and imposed maternity leave levies? Isn't that a bit like rubbing our noses in it? Very inconsiderate if you ask me, especially when there's nothing in either budget for us.The first part of today's column is all about how she has ended up accidentally childless.
I'm not unsympathetic to the sorrow that a single woman in her early middle age may feel at the realisation that they probably are not going to ever have a kid. (Although, as I have said before, I don't know why many modern women who know they want children will still waste years and years sleeping with partners who won't commit to the idea.)
That said, I don't know that Tracee exactly gives credibility to her argument that single people are "ignored" by government by explaining first that she walks this emotional precipice when someone just tries to make small talk with her:
And then, at some point, the mere thought of being asked one more time if you have children makes you want to shriek like a madwoman or slap the nearest person to you very hard indeed. You opt, of course, for a dignified silence for fear of being whispered about in unbecoming sentences such as "no wonder she can't find a fella …"With such a sound and rational grounding in the issue, she should run for the Greens for Parliament.
A slight overstatement, perhaps
Danger of infection in surgery preparation - National - smh.com.au
There's an orthopedic surgeon upset about idiosyncratic rules in Sydney hospitals:
There's an orthopedic surgeon upset about idiosyncratic rules in Sydney hospitals:
And why does this matter? Apparently, the alcohol based ones are known to offer better protection against post operative infection:Dr Robert Molnar has for the past six months unsuccessfully sought an explanation from the Health Department as to why he is not permitted to use alcoholic surgical preparation solution on his patients at Westmead Hospital, yet he is able to at St George and Sutherland public hospitals.
The rules vary across hospitals: alcoholic solution can be used at Fairfield, Concord, Prince of Wales, Royal Women's and Royal Prince Alfred hospitals but is barred at Liverpool, Nepean, Gosford, Canterbury or Royal North Shore.
But I like this line in the report best, as I assume this conclusion hasn't been verified in studies:A Sydney orthopedic surgeon, Doron Sher, said that if the surgeon was appropriately educated the risk of fire was minimal.
"There is evidence in the literature showing that infection rates are lower using alcoholic Betadine," he said. "I use the alcoholic solution when I get the option because I believe that you get a lower infection rate."
Dr Molnar had used an aqueous antiseptic to prepare the skin.
"You may as well spit on the wound...." he said, noting that alcoholic solution could be used at most private NSW hospitals.
Overdose?
Will changed a week before overdose death - National - smh.com.au
Isn't it an odd choice to be calling a death by Nembutal an "overdose". According to Wikipedia, there are very few things Nembutal can be used for in humans, and of course its fame now is mainly as euthanasia groups' preferred suicide drug.
Seems a bit like saying someone died of a rat poison overdose.
Isn't it an odd choice to be calling a death by Nembutal an "overdose". According to Wikipedia, there are very few things Nembutal can be used for in humans, and of course its fame now is mainly as euthanasia groups' preferred suicide drug.
Seems a bit like saying someone died of a rat poison overdose.
Friday, May 09, 2008
Ridiculous
This bud's for you, and you, and you too - Los Angeles Times
Go and read this piece by Joel Stein that shows how unbelievably farcical "medical marijuana" is in California.
(I always assumed such a system was a joke, but it's a much bigger joke than I ever imagined.)
Go and read this piece by Joel Stein that shows how unbelievably farcical "medical marijuana" is in California.
(I always assumed such a system was a joke, but it's a much bigger joke than I ever imagined.)
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Pilot shortage
Somehow, I seem to have missed reports about the international pilot shortage. Yesterday, I heard someone on the ABC putting figures on it, and I can't find a link. However, there's already an estimated shortfall of several thousand.
The plight of pilots in China seems particularly harsh. From The Economist in April:
Anyhow, maybe it is all the more reason to build airships. (I figure pilots don't have as much to do on them, and they could get more sleep on the flight.) Or, there is always this solution:
Yes, a small company in Mexico wants to build you a strap on rocket helicopter. (Mexico? Well, I guess they would come in handy for border crossings.) But before you place your order, read the rocket helicopter designer's personal history (from the "About us" heading on the company website):
UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal has an article today about shortages in all jobs to do with the airline industry, and the safety concerns that this is causing. (Some estimate a shortage of pilots in the order of 42,000 worldwide by 2020.) The most surprising snippet:
The plight of pilots in China seems particularly harsh. From The Economist in April:
MSNBC had a story about the international shortage mid last year:The state is being so heavy-handed because it fears a mass walkout. It maintains an iron grip on pilots through lifetime contracts, enshrined in state law, which they must sign in return for receiving pilot training. With growing demand from the 20 private airlines that have started up in the past four years, these contracts seem like handcuffs. The CAAC requires pilots to pay 700,000-2.1m yuan to break their contracts. This week Shanghai Airlines filed a lawsuit against nine of its pilots demanding even more (35m yuan) if they continue with their plans to leave the company.
The CAAC's figures show a shortage of 5,000 pilots and predict that 6,500 more will be needed by 2010. The lack of local facilities is prompting Chinese airlines to send groups of students to Canada, Australia and Spain for training.
Figures released by International Air Transport Association show that global air travel will likely grow 4-5 percent a year over the next decade, though the aviation boom in India and China is expected to exceed 7 percent....Those figures for the number of pilots an airline needs for each aircraft seem surprisingly high, but what would I know about running an airline.
India and China alone will need about 4,000 new pilots a year to cope with their growth.By comparison, Germany's Lufthansa — one of the world's largest airlines — employs a total of just over 4,000 pilots.
On average, airlines need 30 highly trained pilots available for each long-haul aircraft in their inventory. For short-haul planes they need less, between 10-18 flyers.
Anyhow, maybe it is all the more reason to build airships. (I figure pilots don't have as much to do on them, and they could get more sleep on the flight.) Or, there is always this solution:
Yes, a small company in Mexico wants to build you a strap on rocket helicopter. (Mexico? Well, I guess they would come in handy for border crossings.) But before you place your order, read the rocket helicopter designer's personal history (from the "About us" heading on the company website):
At the school I was a trouble kid and I ended psychoanalyzed in the Conduct Clinic for abnormal behavior because I didn't liked the school, because they try to teach me things that I didn't want to learn and they don't teach me what I wanted to learn!, it was just a communication problem!.Sounds like a young Speed Racer, really.
The only two subjects I liked too much was physics and chemistry unfortunately this classes was only two times per week, I hated the rest of the subjects and the school was a boring place for me.
This was a constant fight with my teachers because I considered that my brain has a finite capacity to keep formulas and data that are important for me and not the name of the horse that was rode by El Quijote or the dates and places of the Napoleon fights and another stupid things that I don't care and never used in my life.
I skipped the school (play hockey) many times and went to work as a helper at a speed garage that prepared racing cars, there I learned a lot of mechanics, to weld, to paint, to work the fiberglass, to modify engines for racing, to port and polish the race car heads, etc., this was the things I wanted to learn and not all the garbage that the teachers wanted me to remember.
UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal has an article today about shortages in all jobs to do with the airline industry, and the safety concerns that this is causing. (Some estimate a shortage of pilots in the order of 42,000 worldwide by 2020.) The most surprising snippet:
In Brazil, pilots at TAM Linhas Aéreas SA last year overshot a São Paulo runway and smashed a new Airbus jet into a building during stormy weather, killing more than 190 people. The pilots were apparently confused about how to reduce engine power and apply reverse thrust.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
For those of you who can't get enough of Indiana Jones talk
Indiana Jones Returns, to Steven Spielberg’s Delight - New York Times
Getting tired yet of my linking to material on the new Indiana Jones movie? If so, just skip this.
The article above discusses the series generally, and makes some good points about the Spielberg action style. He has, fortunately, never been into the frenetic cutting of action scenes, an annoying feature of nearly all action movies now. (The same can be said of nearly all dance movies of the last few decades too.) Spielberg is nice enough not to diss all action movies that take that approach, but he's being too kind. It rarely works for me, as it reduces the realism and impact of action when you can tell you are watching a stunt that was repeated umpteen times to allow for all those edits from different angles.
The article also notes this about what remains one of my all time favourite movie sequences:
As for "Last Crusade", it has always struck me as a particularly uninspired in terms of both script and direction. As with the 3rd Star Wars, many of the action sequences were so obviously re-hashes from the first movie of the series, it was very disappointing. I have re-watched it recently, and it remains quite a dull experience.
I always have felt that it was odd that both the Star Wars and Indiana Jones series peaked in the middle, yet friends and critics at the time were a little disappointed with the second instalment. Later, it seems opinions were revised of Empire Strikes Back, so that virtually everyone now agrees it was the best of the the lot. Temple of Doom may also be a bit better appreciated now too, I suspect.
So it's fingers crossed for the new movie, but expectations may yet be dashed.
Getting tired yet of my linking to material on the new Indiana Jones movie? If so, just skip this.
The article above discusses the series generally, and makes some good points about the Spielberg action style. He has, fortunately, never been into the frenetic cutting of action scenes, an annoying feature of nearly all action movies now. (The same can be said of nearly all dance movies of the last few decades too.) Spielberg is nice enough not to diss all action movies that take that approach, but he's being too kind. It rarely works for me, as it reduces the realism and impact of action when you can tell you are watching a stunt that was repeated umpteen times to allow for all those edits from different angles.
The article also notes this about what remains one of my all time favourite movie sequences:
The perilously long and complicated opening sequence of “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” for example — in which a song-and-dance number (“Anything Goes,” sung in Mandarin) turns into a wild slapstick action scene involving a diamond, a poisoned drink and an elusive vial of antidote, and ends with Indy and his companions jumping out of a plane in a rubber raft — delivers that sort of giddy, mildly deranging stimulation. The staging and the cutting have the “can you top this?” audacity of a silent comedy, and the timing is slyly impeccable: it’s about the length of a Keaton two-reeler."Temple of Doom" remains my favourite of the series. For me, it struck exactly the right tone of wit and slapstick humour to offset the action and any violence. Ripping the heart out of a chest never bothered me; it always seems to have been intended to have been revealed as a magic trick anyway. (On the other hand, I always felt that Raider's more serious tone made the impalings and other violence too intense for much of the potential audience of under 9 year olds.)
As for "Last Crusade", it has always struck me as a particularly uninspired in terms of both script and direction. As with the 3rd Star Wars, many of the action sequences were so obviously re-hashes from the first movie of the series, it was very disappointing. I have re-watched it recently, and it remains quite a dull experience.
I always have felt that it was odd that both the Star Wars and Indiana Jones series peaked in the middle, yet friends and critics at the time were a little disappointed with the second instalment. Later, it seems opinions were revised of Empire Strikes Back, so that virtually everyone now agrees it was the best of the the lot. Temple of Doom may also be a bit better appreciated now too, I suspect.
So it's fingers crossed for the new movie, but expectations may yet be dashed.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Lane goes racing
I've never been convinced that the Wachowski brothers deserve respect, and the idea that they could make what I recall as the least interesting Japanese anime of the 1960's into a good movie seemed a particularly unlikely proposition.
So, it's with pleasure that I read Anthony Lane's amusing review of Speed Racer. He writes:
So, it's with pleasure that I read Anthony Lane's amusing review of Speed Racer. He writes:
A four-year-old will be reduced to a gibbering but highly gratified wreck; an eight-year-old will wander around wearing a look that was last seen on the face of Dante after he met Beatrice. But what about the rest of us? True, our eyeballs will slowly, though never completely, recover, but what of our souls? I reckon the M.P.A.A. should use the advent of “Speed Racer” to revive an old ratings symbol: a big Roman X, meaning “of no conceivable interest to anyone over the age of ten.”Or, as Stephen Colbert put it "it's the classic story of boy meets seizure inducing lights".
Just resign
Buswell made 'sexual noises': woman | The Australian
So, today we get all the detail of the "chair sniffing" incident. While I have no doubt there are other politicians who are just as crass and immature, a leader can't maintain credibility with a highly publicised incident like this. He should just do everyone a favour and resign. Have another cry and get it over with, Troy; there's probably a place waiting for you on Melbourne's Footy Show anyway.
And at the national level, I would be close to recommending the same to Brendan Nelson. Let's face it:
a. he was voted in by a narrow margin when a couple of eligible voters were absent;
b. his "listening tour" was ill-conceived and is most memorable for the repeated image of him playing with kids on a monkey bar;
c. most journalists rightly view his habit of having a heart breaking anecdote ready for every occasion as being just a tad bizarre and unconvincing. Glenn Milne says today "Nelson, bless his sincerity, is like a piece of emotional blotting paper."
At 9% preferred PM he has no credibility to be leader.
The most surprising thing to me about today's Newpoll was the 4% swing toward the Coalition, which I can only put down to the electorate being more cynical about the 2020 Summit than most media journalists expected (Yay!)
Surely Nelson himself is helping shave a few points off the Coalition's popularity. If so, it may be that the Coalitions "true" primary vote is currently very close to 40%, which seems to me to be not too bad at this stage of the electoral cycle.
So, is there any point to Brendan hanging on any longer? I can't really see it.
So, today we get all the detail of the "chair sniffing" incident. While I have no doubt there are other politicians who are just as crass and immature, a leader can't maintain credibility with a highly publicised incident like this. He should just do everyone a favour and resign. Have another cry and get it over with, Troy; there's probably a place waiting for you on Melbourne's Footy Show anyway.
And at the national level, I would be close to recommending the same to Brendan Nelson. Let's face it:
a. he was voted in by a narrow margin when a couple of eligible voters were absent;
b. his "listening tour" was ill-conceived and is most memorable for the repeated image of him playing with kids on a monkey bar;
c. most journalists rightly view his habit of having a heart breaking anecdote ready for every occasion as being just a tad bizarre and unconvincing. Glenn Milne says today "Nelson, bless his sincerity, is like a piece of emotional blotting paper."
At 9% preferred PM he has no credibility to be leader.
The most surprising thing to me about today's Newpoll was the 4% swing toward the Coalition, which I can only put down to the electorate being more cynical about the 2020 Summit than most media journalists expected (Yay!)
Surely Nelson himself is helping shave a few points off the Coalition's popularity. If so, it may be that the Coalitions "true" primary vote is currently very close to 40%, which seems to me to be not too bad at this stage of the electoral cycle.
So, is there any point to Brendan hanging on any longer? I can't really see it.
Monbiot catches up with me
George Monbiot: If there is a God, he's not green. Otherwise airships would take off | Comment is free | The Guardian
Hey, I first mentioned the return of airships as a possible way to reduce CO2 emissions back in August 2006! (The topic got more space in my post of November 2006.) What's more, hydrogen filled ones were mentioned in my March 2008 list of brilliant ideas for the 2020 Summit.
Now Monbiot is promoting the idea of hydrogen airships (see above). Well, actually he mentions one which would use both hydrogen and helium, which may well be a good idea.
I'm tempted to refer to myself as a blogging prophet who is not being adequately recognised in the blogosphere, and to take up wearing sackcloth and eating locusts in the desert. (Which, incidentally, may just mean a move into the backyard, as Brisbane's normal winter dry spell has already kicked in with a vengeance, it seems.)
Hey, I first mentioned the return of airships as a possible way to reduce CO2 emissions back in August 2006! (The topic got more space in my post of November 2006.) What's more, hydrogen filled ones were mentioned in my March 2008 list of brilliant ideas for the 2020 Summit.
Now Monbiot is promoting the idea of hydrogen airships (see above). Well, actually he mentions one which would use both hydrogen and helium, which may well be a good idea.
I'm tempted to refer to myself as a blogging prophet who is not being adequately recognised in the blogosphere, and to take up wearing sackcloth and eating locusts in the desert. (Which, incidentally, may just mean a move into the backyard, as Brisbane's normal winter dry spell has already kicked in with a vengeance, it seems.)
Nuclear notes
Alternative dares not speak | The Australian
Alan Moran writes about Garnaut's interim report, noting that it doesn't mention the "N" word.
He mentions a bit of history of interest:
Speaking of nuclear, and energy generally, the Mother Jones current issue is all about the topic. In the article about nuclear, it notes:
Alan Moran writes about Garnaut's interim report, noting that it doesn't mention the "N" word.
He mentions a bit of history of interest:
Now there's a rich irony. ALP ministers, many of whom have spent their lives demonising nuclear power, may soon have to start promoting it. Actually, that's a U-turn not without precedent, as nuclear power was once strongly advocated by the ALP: in the mid-1970s, the Dunstan government in South Australia even claimed that a nuclear industry in the state would create 500,000 jobs.That would be one way Kevin Rudd's reputation would soar in my eyes: if he could actually lead his party into accepting nuclear. (Go have a look at Pebble Beds, Kevin.)
Speaking of nuclear, and energy generally, the Mother Jones current issue is all about the topic. In the article about nuclear, it notes:
To be useful as nuclear fuel, uranium ore has to be refined into uranium oxide (the yellowcake of Niger fame) and then enriched—turned into pellets of 4 percent U-235. The sole U.S. plant that enriches uranium for civilian power reactors, located in Paducah, Kentucky, accomplishes this via an energy-hogging process that consumes 15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity a year. Even so, carbon emissions for the entire nuclear fuel cycle come to no more than 55 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour—roughly even with solar. By 2010, when the U.S. Enrichment Corporation is slated to switch to the more efficient method used in Europe, that number should come down closer to 12 grams per kilowatt-hour—on par with wind.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Naked singularities again
Here's a recent paper from arXiv that proposes how naked singularities may form instead of black holes. (My earlier post about naked singularities possibly being created at the LHC is here.)
The more recent paper does not mention the LHC, but the mechanism it describes still seems relevant (correct me if I am wrong, anyone.)
As this paper says:
OK, the argument against worrying about them will be the same as that for mini black holes: the earth and all astronomical bodies are constantly bombarded by higher energy particles, and if that hasn't created a naked singularity danger, then nor will the LHC.
And the reason for questioning this might be same as the argument regarding mini black holes: namely, cosmic naked singularities would presumably shoot off at near relativistic speeds , whereas those at the LHC would sometimes have low speed. Maybe ones that hang around a something more to worry about? Also, I am a little curious about what would happen if two of them meet, as would seem more of a possibility in the LHC than in nature.
Meanwhile, we sit around twiddling our thumbs while CERN takes its sweet time to publish the delayed safety paper.
The more recent paper does not mention the LHC, but the mechanism it describes still seems relevant (correct me if I am wrong, anyone.)
As this paper says:
Spacetime singularities belong naturally to the realm of quantum gravity. We believe that only a complete quantum gravity theory will be able to describe naked singularities properly, dissecting them conclusively or even restoring the WCCC in a more fundamental level.So: no one knows exactly what a naked singularity would be like, yet (according to some) they may be created in the LHC. (There's a short note on a CERN publication about naked singularities.)
OK, the argument against worrying about them will be the same as that for mini black holes: the earth and all astronomical bodies are constantly bombarded by higher energy particles, and if that hasn't created a naked singularity danger, then nor will the LHC.
And the reason for questioning this might be same as the argument regarding mini black holes: namely, cosmic naked singularities would presumably shoot off at near relativistic speeds , whereas those at the LHC would sometimes have low speed. Maybe ones that hang around a something more to worry about? Also, I am a little curious about what would happen if two of them meet, as would seem more of a possibility in the LHC than in nature.
Meanwhile, we sit around twiddling our thumbs while CERN takes its sweet time to publish the delayed safety paper.
Local electricity storage
A few posts back, I indicated I would do some Googling about household electrical storage, so that my future solar Stirling engine powered house would still let me watch TV at night.
Seems there's not many choices around. Of course, the truly dedicated can buy a huge number of lead acid batteries already, but they have a pretty short life. One site claims that nanotechnology will let us build superbatteries, but as to how realistic this proposal is, I have no idea:
They are big and expensive and used for a many houses, not just one. They appear to be largely a Japanese idea. The New York Times reported last year that one company in America is looking at using them for storing windpower. (The article also notes that they operate at more than 800 degrees F, which makes it sound like you wouldn't want even a small one in your backyard.)
So, OK, they won't fit in my backyard, but they sound a fairly promising idea if used on neighbourhood scale.
Of course, another Japanese idea may help in any plan to live off the grid: house sized fuel cells, which I have mentioned before. I wonder: can you turn these on and off easily, as required, and not affect their efficiency in the process? And can you get away with using bottled natural gas for them, instead of mains gas?
Funny how many of these energy ideas are coming from Japan, hey?
Seems there's not many choices around. Of course, the truly dedicated can buy a huge number of lead acid batteries already, but they have a pretty short life. One site claims that nanotechnology will let us build superbatteries, but as to how realistic this proposal is, I have no idea:
Today, using lead-acid storage batteries, such a unit for a typical house to store 100 kilowatt hours of electrical energy would take up a small room and cost more than $10,000. Through revolutionary advances in nanotechnology, it may be possible to shrink an equivalent unit to the size of a washing machine and drop the cost to less than $1,000. With these advances the electrical grid can become exceedingly robust, because local storage protects customers from power fluctuations and outages. Most importantly, it permits some or all of the primary electrical power on the grid to come from solar and wind.Still, there does exist one form of battery which allows a lot of electricity to be stored. Futurepundit talked about them last year: sodium sulphur batteries. He links to a USAToday story about them, which includes a photo.
They are big and expensive and used for a many houses, not just one. They appear to be largely a Japanese idea. The New York Times reported last year that one company in America is looking at using them for storing windpower. (The article also notes that they operate at more than 800 degrees F, which makes it sound like you wouldn't want even a small one in your backyard.)
So, OK, they won't fit in my backyard, but they sound a fairly promising idea if used on neighbourhood scale.
Of course, another Japanese idea may help in any plan to live off the grid: house sized fuel cells, which I have mentioned before. I wonder: can you turn these on and off easily, as required, and not affect their efficiency in the process? And can you get away with using bottled natural gas for them, instead of mains gas?
Funny how many of these energy ideas are coming from Japan, hey?
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Houses as art
Dezeen’s top ten: houses
Oddly, I found this link via Posthuman Blues.
In another life, I would have liked to have been an architect. (Must be all that time I spent designing houses with Lego. I don't think they even make the roof blocks any more.)
That said, you do have to laugh at the impracticality of some architect ideas for residences. Those that irritate me in particular are the ones that have enormous slabs of glass for walls, as if there is no human desire for privacy. (They also make no sense as far as energy efficiency is concerned.)
However, regular readers would recall my fondness for canvas, in the form of tents and upmarket yurts. Well, I learn from the story above that some architects from Chile have come up with a house which is sort of part normal wall and part tent, and you can readily buy plans off them.
Yes, it's probably got problems in terms of how long you could expect it to last, but the photographs make it look very appealing.
Oddly, I found this link via Posthuman Blues.
In another life, I would have liked to have been an architect. (Must be all that time I spent designing houses with Lego. I don't think they even make the roof blocks any more.)
That said, you do have to laugh at the impracticality of some architect ideas for residences. Those that irritate me in particular are the ones that have enormous slabs of glass for walls, as if there is no human desire for privacy. (They also make no sense as far as energy efficiency is concerned.)
However, regular readers would recall my fondness for canvas, in the form of tents and upmarket yurts. Well, I learn from the story above that some architects from Chile have come up with a house which is sort of part normal wall and part tent, and you can readily buy plans off them.
Yes, it's probably got problems in terms of how long you could expect it to last, but the photographs make it look very appealing.
That Austrian case...
Dungeons & Austrians - New York Times
See the link for an opinion piece that points out that the basement incest case is not the first horror basement story from Austria.
Actually, when I saw what the article was about, I thought it might delve into the whole question of whether European horror fairy tales actually do spring from something twisted in the collective unconscious of the area. It doesn't go there, but there'll be an academic somewhere who does.
Meanwhile, it's curious that in Australia, the city that has the general reputation for the most vile and twisted murders is Adelaide, which is seen as having both strong English and (in the hills at least) German influence.
See the link for an opinion piece that points out that the basement incest case is not the first horror basement story from Austria.
Actually, when I saw what the article was about, I thought it might delve into the whole question of whether European horror fairy tales actually do spring from something twisted in the collective unconscious of the area. It doesn't go there, but there'll be an academic somewhere who does.
Meanwhile, it's curious that in Australia, the city that has the general reputation for the most vile and twisted murders is Adelaide, which is seen as having both strong English and (in the hills at least) German influence.
Boris wins; exile threatened
Mayoral election results: Live | Politics | Guardian Unlimited
Of course, with Boris Johnson winning the London mayoral race, over at The Guardian there's an amusing outpouring of name calling of Boris voters (who are obviously just too stupid to vote for Ken), and empty threats of self exile from the city/country.
What is it about lefties and this precious "if the majority don't vote like I do, I cannot live here" attitude? People used to say that conservatives had a "born to rule" attitude, but it's clear that such a belief in entitlement (based on their superior intellect and morality, of course) has long since passed over to the followers of the other side of politics.
PS: Surely even those who hate him would have to agree that Boris made a very gracious acceptance speech. Maybe he will end up like Schwarzenegger: a somewhat unexpected great success when put in the right position.
PPS: Tigerhawk has a good post about the adolescent nature of this "if my candidate loses I will leave politics/the country" attitude.
PPPS: Or, to put it as Nige does at Bryan Appleyard's blog:
Of course, with Boris Johnson winning the London mayoral race, over at The Guardian there's an amusing outpouring of name calling of Boris voters (who are obviously just too stupid to vote for Ken), and empty threats of self exile from the city/country.
What is it about lefties and this precious "if the majority don't vote like I do, I cannot live here" attitude? People used to say that conservatives had a "born to rule" attitude, but it's clear that such a belief in entitlement (based on their superior intellect and morality, of course) has long since passed over to the followers of the other side of politics.
PS: Surely even those who hate him would have to agree that Boris made a very gracious acceptance speech. Maybe he will end up like Schwarzenegger: a somewhat unexpected great success when put in the right position.
PPS: Tigerhawk has a good post about the adolescent nature of this "if my candidate loses I will leave politics/the country" attitude.
PPPS: Or, to put it as Nige does at Bryan Appleyard's blog:
What has struck me in all the interviews with those on the losing side - Ken of course included - is the unspoken assumption that a Tory advance represents a reft in the very fabric of space-time, a fundamental anomaly, that can only be the result of 'mistakes', of 'not listening', of a failure to get the message across. I've often noticed this mindset in leftists, the assumption that their project is not only right but self-evidently right, and those who don't buy into it either haven't understood it or are outside the pale of rational discourse, irredeemable and best ignored or sneered at .....
Friday, May 02, 2008
Ocean issues again
Growing ocean dead zones leave fish gasping - earth - 01 May 2008 - New Scientist Environment
It's all inconclusive as to what will happen in future, but it's consistent with my position that the effect of CO2 and possible warming on the oceans is the clearest reason to do something about greenhouse gases.
It's all inconclusive as to what will happen in future, but it's consistent with my position that the effect of CO2 and possible warming on the oceans is the clearest reason to do something about greenhouse gases.
Well deserved snark
By far the most annoying, bitter, nasty, know-it-all blogger on the left in the last few years is Ken Lovell at Road to Surfdom. His post this week about Iran and most of the world's (not just America's) concern about its nuclear program is his typical schtick: informed by his reflexive anti-Americanism and his apparent confidence that he can tell more about the true state of the world from Adelaide [correction: Tweed Coast?] and his selective reading on the 'net than the governments of the Northern Hemisphere. (Anyone who thinks he has a good point on Iran should read this Economist article first.)
No one bothers any more trying to engage him in debate; he was always snide and insulting in response, and presumably just enjoys the company of the regular sycophantic, and even crazier, commenters. Yet other blogs of the more moderate left refer to some of his posts every now and again with approval. I guess the left loves company, no matter how unpleasant.
I simply can't stand him.
Ah, that feels better.
UPDATE: I see that Ken has psychoanalysed my intense dislike of his blogging style as being due to my not having a regular half dozen commenters who chime in after nearly every post with stuff along the lines of "oh, that's so right, but it's even worse than that."
I don't intend making snark attacks a regular feature here. The post was inspired by the fact that I have noticed more moderate lefties linking to him lately, and my knowledge from past experience that there is absolutely no point in challenging his views at his own blog.
UPDATE 2: Good grief. Someone at Club Troppo's Missing Link today has compared me to JF Beck . It would seem they just believed Ken's characterisation of this blog, rather than actually read it. (Nothing against JF, but somehow I don't think I count as a right wing death beast.)
Also, I don't think Ken realised how few hits there normally are here. His pointing out to the world that I had a snark attack against him has probably trebled my normal weekend hit rate.
No one bothers any more trying to engage him in debate; he was always snide and insulting in response, and presumably just enjoys the company of the regular sycophantic, and even crazier, commenters. Yet other blogs of the more moderate left refer to some of his posts every now and again with approval. I guess the left loves company, no matter how unpleasant.
I simply can't stand him.
Ah, that feels better.
UPDATE: I see that Ken has psychoanalysed my intense dislike of his blogging style as being due to my not having a regular half dozen commenters who chime in after nearly every post with stuff along the lines of "oh, that's so right, but it's even worse than that."
I don't intend making snark attacks a regular feature here. The post was inspired by the fact that I have noticed more moderate lefties linking to him lately, and my knowledge from past experience that there is absolutely no point in challenging his views at his own blog.
UPDATE 2: Good grief. Someone at Club Troppo's Missing Link today has compared me to JF Beck . It would seem they just believed Ken's characterisation of this blog, rather than actually read it. (Nothing against JF, but somehow I don't think I count as a right wing death beast.)
Also, I don't think Ken realised how few hits there normally are here. His pointing out to the world that I had a snark attack against him has probably trebled my normal weekend hit rate.
A stirling engine for the backyard
I mentioned the Infinia Corporation a year ago, and with all this talk of solar power, I thought it would checking if this alternative idea (of small scale solar thermal using stirling engines) is still around.
It is, and it seems as if they have recent significant funding and (presumably) may be selling the product soon. Their main product of interest should look something like this:
It is, apparently, a 3kW stirling engine that provides electicity, and the website claims that it has a 24 % energy conversion efficiency, low maintenance, and will be(I think they say somewhere) cheaper than solar cells.
I want one for my backyard, simply because they look cool and you can (presumably) also roast a chicken in the focal point of that dish. (Any passing crow that wants a rest on that engine part might be in for a shock, too.)
Now, if only there were economical and small electricity storage systems big enough to get your average house through the night. This calls for another round of Googling!
It is, and it seems as if they have recent significant funding and (presumably) may be selling the product soon. Their main product of interest should look something like this:
It is, apparently, a 3kW stirling engine that provides electicity, and the website claims that it has a 24 % energy conversion efficiency, low maintenance, and will be(I think they say somewhere) cheaper than solar cells.
I want one for my backyard, simply because they look cool and you can (presumably) also roast a chicken in the focal point of that dish. (Any passing crow that wants a rest on that engine part might be in for a shock, too.)
Now, if only there were economical and small electricity storage systems big enough to get your average house through the night. This calls for another round of Googling!
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Fear and loathing in London
Be very afraid: Zoe Williams on the possibility of Boris Johnson as mayor of London
Zoe Williams and a bunch of artistes are all in a frenzy over the distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will be mayor of London.
I haven't heard such hyperbole about a politician since, well since the headier days of Webdiary while John Howard was at his peak. Zoe says of Boris:
Zoe Williams and a bunch of artistes are all in a frenzy over the distinct possibility that Boris Johnson will be mayor of London.
I haven't heard such hyperbole about a politician since, well since the headier days of Webdiary while John Howard was at his peak. Zoe says of Boris:
He despises gays and he despises provincials (you are all right with Boris if you come from Liverpool but don't sound like a Liverpudlian. Once you've been to public school, then you are from postcode POSH), and he despises Africans. He despises them, and he despises those of us who would hold such judgments to be bigoted and inhuman.One of the funniest comments that follows is by fashion designer Vivienne Westwood:
"Boris as mayor? Unthinkable. It just exposes democracy as a sham, especially if people don't vote for Ken - he's the best thing in politics. Unthinkable."Yes, democracy is right and proper only if your candidate wins, hey, Vivien?
About boating accidents
Harbour death crash witness: 'They wanted to party' - National - theage.com.au
The thing that always seems kind of surprising to me about boating accidents is how easily they seem to kill people.
It's probably because the most common form of transport accidents (in cars) often occur at high speed; therefore it is easy to imagine that the crush of metal will kill. Boats, on the other hand, unless they are racing, don't give the impression of travelling fast enough to cause that much mayhem if they collide. But of course, the passengers are unrestrained, and always have water handy in which to drown.
The other thing is that boating crashes are more unusual; it's often hard to imagine how people fail to see other boats in their path or near them. It's probably the more unexpected nature of boating fatalities that make them seem more tragic.
The thing that always seems kind of surprising to me about boating accidents is how easily they seem to kill people.
It's probably because the most common form of transport accidents (in cars) often occur at high speed; therefore it is easy to imagine that the crush of metal will kill. Boats, on the other hand, unless they are racing, don't give the impression of travelling fast enough to cause that much mayhem if they collide. But of course, the passengers are unrestrained, and always have water handy in which to drown.
The other thing is that boating crashes are more unusual; it's often hard to imagine how people fail to see other boats in their path or near them. It's probably the more unexpected nature of boating fatalities that make them seem more tragic.
Not sure it's a good idea...
Tom Cruise set to make M:I4
The Mission Impossible series has gone like this:
M:I1 - Cheesily very enjoyable; that De Palma can really direct well when motivated (8/10)
M:I2 - seems to have killed John Woo's career, and none too soon. Awful (2/10, just for curiosity value of the Australian locations.)
M:I3 - better than M:I2 (well, that was no challenge), but directed by some hack who can't compose shots for the big screen, can't move a camera well, and seems to enjoy sadistic scenes a little too much. 4/10.
Can't de Palma, who admittedly is getting on a bit, make a come back? Or even Tom's pal Spielberg? Otherwise, there's not much hope.
The Mission Impossible series has gone like this:
M:I1 - Cheesily very enjoyable; that De Palma can really direct well when motivated (8/10)
M:I2 - seems to have killed John Woo's career, and none too soon. Awful (2/10, just for curiosity value of the Australian locations.)
M:I3 - better than M:I2 (well, that was no challenge), but directed by some hack who can't compose shots for the big screen, can't move a camera well, and seems to enjoy sadistic scenes a little too much. 4/10.
Can't de Palma, who admittedly is getting on a bit, make a come back? Or even Tom's pal Spielberg? Otherwise, there's not much hope.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Apostasy
A question of belief | Comment is free
Here's an interesting article on the very real problems that apostates from Islam (threat of death in some countries being the big one, but there are many other consequences in other countries.)
It was surprising to read this:
Here's an interesting article on the very real problems that apostates from Islam (threat of death in some countries being the big one, but there are many other consequences in other countries.)
It was surprising to read this:
In Sudan and in some states in Malaysia, capital punishment is permitted. In Saudi Arabia, Mauritania and Iran, death remains a real possibility for the convert as although it is not specified in law, the countries can invoke this penalty through their application of sharia.Malaysia? I wouldn't have thought it could happen there.
On going solar
The very sensible Robert Merkel has a very useful post at LP about why government subsidies for solar cell power don't really make much sense overall.
Despite the arguments he convincingly explains, individuals who install the systems and take the benefit of the government subsidies will feel as if they are doing good. It's easy to understand why, when they can look at their roof on a sunny day and think "I am making my contribution". It's a pity the world is more complicated.
Despite the arguments he convincingly explains, individuals who install the systems and take the benefit of the government subsidies will feel as if they are doing good. It's easy to understand why, when they can look at their roof on a sunny day and think "I am making my contribution". It's a pity the world is more complicated.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Itchy "art"
BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Artists catch head lice for show
Clearly, after 100 years or so, it's getting harder and harder to be an avant garde artist.
Who knew primary school children and the homeless were walking art installations?
Clearly, after 100 years or so, it's getting harder and harder to be an avant garde artist.
Who knew primary school children and the homeless were walking art installations?
How to win friends and influence people
Beer and wine tax rise proposed | The Courier-Mail:
A 300 PER CENT increase in beer and wine taxes is being proposed by the Rudd Government's new preventive health taskforce as families battle rising petrol, grocery and mortgage prices.
Monday, April 28, 2008
A stupid dream, then away
Work (and tax!) pressure is likely to keep me from posting/reading the internet much for a few days.
In the meantime, on Saturday night I was woken mid-morning by a child, causing me to remember this stupid dream. Some sort of alien invasion of earth had resulted, not in death or destruction, but just in all men being treated very unfairly. Wages were docked (I forget what for), and we were forced to sleep in some tiny, claustrophobic dormitory type arrangement. At work, a woman co-worker, when shown my pay slip, just found it amusing. I was very disappointed with her inability to see the injustice.
Then a different woman and I were outside an office window, a few stories up, in some window cleaning gantry set-up. It was early morning, and a robot guard was walking down the silent street. We froze, and he didn't see us, so we continued our break in into the alien controlled building. Inside the office, there were jewels, from which voices came, and then 2 of the aliens themselves made an appearance. They just looked like men in silly colourful pantomine alien costumes. They were very easy to kill. I think I stabbed them with something.
The last impression I have is of sitting in a chair with my feet up on a desk, satisfied that I could kill as many of these aliens as I want.
Now I can usually work out pretty quickly what quirky combination of day time stuff has lead to a particular dream. In this case there was certainly an element of Dr Who, which I had been watching on Friday, but the injustice to males took a while. But then I remembered seeing the heading for an article about child support somewhere recently, and that must be it.
Either that or I just have a generic fear of aliens as feminists (or feminists as aliens?), even though they are easy to defeat.
In the meantime, on Saturday night I was woken mid-morning by a child, causing me to remember this stupid dream. Some sort of alien invasion of earth had resulted, not in death or destruction, but just in all men being treated very unfairly. Wages were docked (I forget what for), and we were forced to sleep in some tiny, claustrophobic dormitory type arrangement. At work, a woman co-worker, when shown my pay slip, just found it amusing. I was very disappointed with her inability to see the injustice.
Then a different woman and I were outside an office window, a few stories up, in some window cleaning gantry set-up. It was early morning, and a robot guard was walking down the silent street. We froze, and he didn't see us, so we continued our break in into the alien controlled building. Inside the office, there were jewels, from which voices came, and then 2 of the aliens themselves made an appearance. They just looked like men in silly colourful pantomine alien costumes. They were very easy to kill. I think I stabbed them with something.
The last impression I have is of sitting in a chair with my feet up on a desk, satisfied that I could kill as many of these aliens as I want.
Now I can usually work out pretty quickly what quirky combination of day time stuff has lead to a particular dream. In this case there was certainly an element of Dr Who, which I had been watching on Friday, but the injustice to males took a while. But then I remembered seeing the heading for an article about child support somewhere recently, and that must be it.
Either that or I just have a generic fear of aliens as feminists (or feminists as aliens?), even though they are easy to defeat.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
An anecdote too far...
I Peed On Fellini - Book Reviews - smh.com.au
Bruce Elder provides a short review of David Stratton's autobiographical "I Peed on Fellini". (I have read somewhere that Stratton was not sure that the title was a good idea, but presumably someone in publishing convinced him. Let's hope it's not the same editor advising Peter Costello.)
Anyway, the review notes that the book has:
Bruce Elder provides a short review of David Stratton's autobiographical "I Peed on Fellini". (I have read somewhere that Stratton was not sure that the title was a good idea, but presumably someone in publishing convinced him. Let's hope it's not the same editor advising Peter Costello.)
Anyway, the review notes that the book has:
... some very amusing and extraordinary anecdotes (the story of Bob Ellis and the used condom is as fascinating as it is grotesque).There's no way I'm going to buy the book just to find out what that is about, but it's impossible not to be curious.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
That renewable target
This is another post where I try to get my head around energy issues from some Web sources. Anyone who has more accurate figures readily at hand is welcome to correct me.
I just saw some of Skynews Eco Report, in which the Rudd government's 2020 target of 20% energy from renewable sources was being discussed. (Can't find it on the Web yet.)
I think the female guest said that by 2010, Australia will have 2% of its electricity generated from renewables, and the 20% target by 2020 is made even worse by expected growth in demand for electricity (via population growth, presumably) in the same period.
However, this 2 % figure isn't right (or maybe I misheard her); a parliamentary paper from 2000, which I have referred to before, said we were already at something like 10% for electricity from renewables, but it was supposed to increase (by mandated government target) by 2% by 2010. Maybe that is the source of the 2% figure?
This 2004 fact sheet, from the Renewable Energy Generators Association, gives a better idea of the problem. It appears that, as of 2004, it didn't look likely that the mandated increase would be met. The problem has been that, after the enormous boost the Snowy Hydro scheme gave to renewable energy, the total proportion of renewable energy for the nation subsequently went into a pretty steady decline, as growth in demand was met by fossil fuels.
If I can follow the second table on that fact sheet correctly, it seems to be saying that:
a. total 1997 renewables was 16,000 GWh;
b. even to keep at 10.5% of total electricity by 2010, it would require an additional 9,500 Gwh from renewables;
c. to get to 12.5% by 2020 would take an additional 21,000 GWh;
d. to get to Labor's 20% target will take close to 45,000 GWh.
But: that government paper I linked to above said that close to 90% of the renewable electricity in 2000 was from hydro electric; a source which is presumably incapable of any significant further growth.
Actually, looking at the government's 2004 MRET (Mandated Renewable Energy Target) Review, it seems that they are now counting solar hot water as a renewable energy source, and in a table in that paper, they have hydroelectric down to 36% of renewables, and "deemed solar hot water" at 26%. (That figure for solar hot water seems kind of high, and almost a bit of a fudge to me.)
The MRET report does seem to confirm that an extra 20,000 GWh is needed by 2020 just to get to 12.5% renewables target. I assume that the REGA paper is therefore correct in its figure of 45,000 GWh to get to 20%.
The issue of how to treat hot water systems confuses the issue. If it were not for them, I would have said the following seems to be the case: we currently seem to get only about 2,000 KWh from renewables other than hydroelectric (that's 10% of 16,000 GWh, plus some extra to allow for changes since the 2000 paper). To get to 20% renewables by 2020 (an additional 45,000 GWh,) would therefore require the amount of current non-hydroelectric renewable electricity to be increased by a factor of (roughly) 23!
So, whatever windfarms, solar and other (non hydroelectric) electricity we have now, it has to increase about 23 times in 12 years.
(As I say, maybe intensive increase in solar hot water changes the figures somewhat, but as that seems not to be discussed much as a strategy, I am guessing that it won't be what rescues us.)
No wonder there is scepticism as to the target, and the Liberals are starting to argue that it will divert resources from the more important task of developing clean coal, which is actually much more important on a global scale. Greg Hunt may well have a good point here.
Anyway, it still seems pretty clear to me that the general public has no idea of the scale of the problem.
I just saw some of Skynews Eco Report, in which the Rudd government's 2020 target of 20% energy from renewable sources was being discussed. (Can't find it on the Web yet.)
I think the female guest said that by 2010, Australia will have 2% of its electricity generated from renewables, and the 20% target by 2020 is made even worse by expected growth in demand for electricity (via population growth, presumably) in the same period.
However, this 2 % figure isn't right (or maybe I misheard her); a parliamentary paper from 2000, which I have referred to before, said we were already at something like 10% for electricity from renewables, but it was supposed to increase (by mandated government target) by 2% by 2010. Maybe that is the source of the 2% figure?
This 2004 fact sheet, from the Renewable Energy Generators Association, gives a better idea of the problem. It appears that, as of 2004, it didn't look likely that the mandated increase would be met. The problem has been that, after the enormous boost the Snowy Hydro scheme gave to renewable energy, the total proportion of renewable energy for the nation subsequently went into a pretty steady decline, as growth in demand was met by fossil fuels.
If I can follow the second table on that fact sheet correctly, it seems to be saying that:
a. total 1997 renewables was 16,000 GWh;
b. even to keep at 10.5% of total electricity by 2010, it would require an additional 9,500 Gwh from renewables;
c. to get to 12.5% by 2020 would take an additional 21,000 GWh;
d. to get to Labor's 20% target will take close to 45,000 GWh.
But: that government paper I linked to above said that close to 90% of the renewable electricity in 2000 was from hydro electric; a source which is presumably incapable of any significant further growth.
Actually, looking at the government's 2004 MRET (Mandated Renewable Energy Target) Review, it seems that they are now counting solar hot water as a renewable energy source, and in a table in that paper, they have hydroelectric down to 36% of renewables, and "deemed solar hot water" at 26%. (That figure for solar hot water seems kind of high, and almost a bit of a fudge to me.)
The MRET report does seem to confirm that an extra 20,000 GWh is needed by 2020 just to get to 12.5% renewables target. I assume that the REGA paper is therefore correct in its figure of 45,000 GWh to get to 20%.
The issue of how to treat hot water systems confuses the issue. If it were not for them, I would have said the following seems to be the case: we currently seem to get only about 2,000 KWh from renewables other than hydroelectric (that's 10% of 16,000 GWh, plus some extra to allow for changes since the 2000 paper). To get to 20% renewables by 2020 (an additional 45,000 GWh,) would therefore require the amount of current non-hydroelectric renewable electricity to be increased by a factor of (roughly) 23!
So, whatever windfarms, solar and other (non hydroelectric) electricity we have now, it has to increase about 23 times in 12 years.
(As I say, maybe intensive increase in solar hot water changes the figures somewhat, but as that seems not to be discussed much as a strategy, I am guessing that it won't be what rescues us.)
No wonder there is scepticism as to the target, and the Liberals are starting to argue that it will divert resources from the more important task of developing clean coal, which is actually much more important on a global scale. Greg Hunt may well have a good point here.
Anyway, it still seems pretty clear to me that the general public has no idea of the scale of the problem.
Newt and climate change
Here's a video that I didn't see coming:
The We Can Solve It Project, which the Pelosi/Gingrich ad promotes, has close connections to Al Gore. Although it seems Gingrich has been promoting Green conservatism for some time, it is surprising that he should promote a Gore project, given other comments he has made about him and environmentalism generally in the recent past.
The We Can Solve It Project, which the Pelosi/Gingrich ad promotes, has close connections to Al Gore. Although it seems Gingrich has been promoting Green conservatism for some time, it is surprising that he should promote a Gore project, given other comments he has made about him and environmentalism generally in the recent past.
Spielberg time
Return of the storyteller | The Australian
Steven Spielberg is doing publicity for the new Indiana Jones movie, and The Australian has a long interview today.
Nothing too surprising in it for someone (like me) who reads or watches every Spielberg interview he can. But there is this slightly amusing bit:
Steven Spielberg is doing publicity for the new Indiana Jones movie, and The Australian has a long interview today.
Nothing too surprising in it for someone (like me) who reads or watches every Spielberg interview he can. But there is this slightly amusing bit:
Spielberg is courteous and generous, without front, yet with that slight distance celebrities adopt to stay sane. He’s just seen Kevin Rudd on television, meeting George Bush: “I was very impressed – is he Labor or Liberal?”
Tracee's excited
From a little sorry, big things may grow - Opinion - theage.com.au
With sentences such as this, Tracee Hutchison will not just be in Tim Blair's sights, she's painting a big red bullseye on her pants and waiting for the kick:
With sentences such as this, Tracee Hutchison will not just be in Tim Blair's sights, she's painting a big red bullseye on her pants and waiting for the kick:
...when I heard those historic words from Rudd's landmark sorry speech again this week — as part of a re-recording of an anthemic song about Aboriginal land rights due for release on Monday — few things could have convinced me more of the magnitude and significance of the metamorphosis this country is experiencing on a daily basis.And this:
A little thing is growing. We have a chance to sing from the same songbook. And we can dare to be hopeful again.Calm down, Tracee. Just get back to us in 5 years time, and tell us if your excitement was justified.
Friday, April 25, 2008
That'd be right
Concrete examples don't help students learn math, study finds
For some time I have been meaning to complain about the way maths is taught these days at primary level, and the story above gives me a good excuse to do it now.
While I can't be the only parent to doubt the value of the methods now used in early maths teaching, I have particular reason to be irritated with it.
That's because my son has a clear developmental language delay. His general IQ is fine, but it would seem that the way his brain processes and remember language is just not quite what it should be, so that (for example) at age 7 he still needs a lot of correction with the tense of very common verbs, and must receive directions in short, clear sentences.
The problem is, as his teachers acknowledge, the way maths is taught now is very verbal, and a language development delay can therefore cause a much stronger "knock on" delay with maths than in the past. You didn't need much language to memorise tables, or to learn the one set method of how to do simple maths operations. You do need solid language when the maths questions and exercises are all framed in something akin to "real life" examples, or when they don't show just one way of doing a simple mathematical exercise, but 3 or 4 ways of thinking about it and letting the child work out the way that best suits them.
Parents with kids in primary school will know what I mean.
Michelle Malkin had a post late last year about some particularly silly sounding American maths texts. Maybe ours are not as bad as that, but the video she has in that post does illustrate the "multi-method" approach that is taken here, even from Grade 2. The video link is here.
Anyhow, this is all by way of introduction to the link above, in which some researchers argue that the overuse of "real life examples" for teaching maths may not in fact help kids learn the basic concept behind the example. That sounds counter-intuitive, but they have experiment to back them up.
So, great, here we have a hint of what might be a coming maths education equivalent to the "whole word / phonetics" debate of the last decade or two. Maybe in 10 year's time there will be a lot less "real life" examples or problems for primary school kids, and more straight forward maths as per the 1960's.
In the meantime, my son will have been somewhat disadvantaged by current educational fads.
The irritating thing is that older class room teachers can recognise fads in education, but can nonetheless be pretty helpless in being able to counter them.
For some time I have been meaning to complain about the way maths is taught these days at primary level, and the story above gives me a good excuse to do it now.
While I can't be the only parent to doubt the value of the methods now used in early maths teaching, I have particular reason to be irritated with it.
That's because my son has a clear developmental language delay. His general IQ is fine, but it would seem that the way his brain processes and remember language is just not quite what it should be, so that (for example) at age 7 he still needs a lot of correction with the tense of very common verbs, and must receive directions in short, clear sentences.
The problem is, as his teachers acknowledge, the way maths is taught now is very verbal, and a language development delay can therefore cause a much stronger "knock on" delay with maths than in the past. You didn't need much language to memorise tables, or to learn the one set method of how to do simple maths operations. You do need solid language when the maths questions and exercises are all framed in something akin to "real life" examples, or when they don't show just one way of doing a simple mathematical exercise, but 3 or 4 ways of thinking about it and letting the child work out the way that best suits them.
Parents with kids in primary school will know what I mean.
Michelle Malkin had a post late last year about some particularly silly sounding American maths texts. Maybe ours are not as bad as that, but the video she has in that post does illustrate the "multi-method" approach that is taken here, even from Grade 2. The video link is here.
Anyhow, this is all by way of introduction to the link above, in which some researchers argue that the overuse of "real life examples" for teaching maths may not in fact help kids learn the basic concept behind the example. That sounds counter-intuitive, but they have experiment to back them up.
So, great, here we have a hint of what might be a coming maths education equivalent to the "whole word / phonetics" debate of the last decade or two. Maybe in 10 year's time there will be a lot less "real life" examples or problems for primary school kids, and more straight forward maths as per the 1960's.
In the meantime, my son will have been somewhat disadvantaged by current educational fads.
The irritating thing is that older class room teachers can recognise fads in education, but can nonetheless be pretty helpless in being able to counter them.
On other Anzac Day posts
Anzac Day gets so much written about it now, I find it hard to come up with anything original to contribute. But each year I can always count on some dubious post or comment from Larvatus Prodeo on the topic.
This year, Mark Bahnisch proposes that it was Paul Keating who played an important role in "reviving" Anzac Day to the current high regard that it seems to enjoy in the community today.
I am far from convinced. I don't recall Anzac Day ever being really "on its last legs" in the 1980's, as Mark suggests. (He doesn't sound like the type of teenager/young man to be attending marches at the time to see first hand, but I could be wrong.) However, it does seem clear that in the last decade or so it has become embraced in a way that was not predicted.
I don't really have an alternative explanation to push here, but I suspect that the increasing loss of grandparents who were WWII veterans may have had something to do with it.
For a Keating skeptic like me, his forays into history were a matter of trying too hard to impose his views and his sense of the "right" type of patriotism on the population, and as such came across as posturing and a tad insincere. I feel certain I would not be on my own in that reaction.
At least in Australia, the power of politicians to influence community attitudes on such matters is easily overestimated, I reckon.
The most puzzling thing Mark says is in his comment 9 to his post:
Similarly, John Quiggin repeats an older post of his in which he makes the comment that Gallipoli campaign was bloody and pointless, as indeed was the whole of WWI, a war of which "nothing good came ...." The surprising bit is that he then says that the danger now seems that we will forget this.
Really? What is evidence that there is any risk at all that young people will start to think that either Gallipoli or WWI were really worthwhile exercises that had good results? They certainly wouldn't be getting that idea from their school teachers, that's for sure.
If the past is another country, it sometimes seems that the left is too.
This year, Mark Bahnisch proposes that it was Paul Keating who played an important role in "reviving" Anzac Day to the current high regard that it seems to enjoy in the community today.
I am far from convinced. I don't recall Anzac Day ever being really "on its last legs" in the 1980's, as Mark suggests. (He doesn't sound like the type of teenager/young man to be attending marches at the time to see first hand, but I could be wrong.) However, it does seem clear that in the last decade or so it has become embraced in a way that was not predicted.
I don't really have an alternative explanation to push here, but I suspect that the increasing loss of grandparents who were WWII veterans may have had something to do with it.
For a Keating skeptic like me, his forays into history were a matter of trying too hard to impose his views and his sense of the "right" type of patriotism on the population, and as such came across as posturing and a tad insincere. I feel certain I would not be on my own in that reaction.
At least in Australia, the power of politicians to influence community attitudes on such matters is easily overestimated, I reckon.
The most puzzling thing Mark says is in his comment 9 to his post:
I think his [Keating's] purpose, as I’ve said, was to lay to rest the stoushes over conscription and the massive sectarian divide that Billy Hughes opened up. Implicit in this, and sometimes explicit, was a view that WW1 probably had been futile - an Imperialist adventure. He tried to weave it into a new story, but the hereditary defenders of the British Empire vented their fury accordingly.In the thread, Geoff Honnor at comment 19 challenges this; it would appear neither he nor I can recall any "venting" against Keating on the issue of the worthiness of WWI. As Honnor says, the disenchantment with that war overall seems to have been pretty much immediate.
Similarly, John Quiggin repeats an older post of his in which he makes the comment that Gallipoli campaign was bloody and pointless, as indeed was the whole of WWI, a war of which "nothing good came ...." The surprising bit is that he then says that the danger now seems that we will forget this.
Really? What is evidence that there is any risk at all that young people will start to think that either Gallipoli or WWI were really worthwhile exercises that had good results? They certainly wouldn't be getting that idea from their school teachers, that's for sure.
If the past is another country, it sometimes seems that the left is too.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Getting ready for May 22
Indiana Jones and the Heap of Old Junk - Features, Film & TV - The Independent
Here's an interesting article on the very murky history of the so-called Aztec crystal skulls, which feature in the next Indiana Jones movie.
The movie starts both here and in the States on 22 May, with its first public outing at Cannes on 18 May.
Here's an interesting article on the very murky history of the so-called Aztec crystal skulls, which feature in the next Indiana Jones movie.
The movie starts both here and in the States on 22 May, with its first public outing at Cannes on 18 May.
Attacking the facilitators
Good ideas lost in the translation - Miranda Devine - Opinion - smh.com.au
Miranda Devine's take on the 2020 Kevin Summit sounds pretty accurate. She doesn't trash it entirely (well, OK, she trashes about 95% of it), and she largely blames the outcome on the business management "facilitators."
Worth reading.
Miranda Devine's take on the 2020 Kevin Summit sounds pretty accurate. She doesn't trash it entirely (well, OK, she trashes about 95% of it), and she largely blames the outcome on the business management "facilitators."
Worth reading.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
So much for those clean, Green, Europeans
Europeans switching back to coal - International Herald Tribune
From the article:
I think they should give up on that idea, and either make it into powder that you can bury anywhere you have a large hole to fill, or algae.
From the article:
And why might some countries need to build more coal plants?:Over the next five years, Italy will increase its reliance on coal to 33 percent from 14 percent. Power generated by Enel from coal will rise to 50 percent. And Italy is not alone in its return to coal.
Driven by rising demand, record high oil and natural gas prices, concerns over energy security and an aversion to nuclear energy, European countries are slated to build about 50 coal-fired plants over the next five years, plants that will be in use for the next five decades.
Enel, like many electricity companies, says it has little choice but to build coal plants to replace aging infrastructure, particularly in countries like Italy, which prohibit nuclear powerThe story goes on to talk about vague hopes for CO2 capture from European plants. But surely, finding suitable places within densely populated Europe is going to be a much bigger challenge than in the relatively vast open spaces of the USA or Australia.
I think they should give up on that idea, and either make it into powder that you can bury anywhere you have a large hole to fill, or algae.
Deveny right
Lefties miss Howard - Opinion - theage.com.au
It's hard to disagree with Catherine Deveny's general idea here, that Lefties like her are feeling a little deflated over not having John Howard to hate. (Phillip Adams used to say that hatred of Howard kept him alive. I wonder if he goes to the doctor more often lately.)
As Deveny says: "The left loves a whinge, a wine and a rant."
And her line about John Howard being like "an ex-boyfriend we're over" rings true too: "We don't want him back, but we want to know he's suffering."
The funniest thing about her column , though, is inadvertent. She characterises the Howard years as follows:
It especially had all the elements of "dog whistling" that the left used to love to attack.
It's hard to disagree with Catherine Deveny's general idea here, that Lefties like her are feeling a little deflated over not having John Howard to hate. (Phillip Adams used to say that hatred of Howard kept him alive. I wonder if he goes to the doctor more often lately.)
As Deveny says: "The left loves a whinge, a wine and a rant."
And her line about John Howard being like "an ex-boyfriend we're over" rings true too: "We don't want him back, but we want to know he's suffering."
The funniest thing about her column , though, is inadvertent. She characterises the Howard years as follows:
...people felt disillusioned and powerless with a government that ran on spin, dog whistles, scare campaigns, pork-barrelling and fear-mongering.Sounds like a description of the 2020 Summit to me. (OK, the summit was not technically the government, but the way it was run, it may as well have been.)
It especially had all the elements of "dog whistling" that the left used to love to attack.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
A very funny Colbert
This segment from The Colbert Report, on current international food problems, is really top notch comedy writing:
The coming cat peril
Are cat colonies a legal and ethical part of nature?
(Answer: no, no, no, no, No!)
From the article (about feral cats in California):
But then again, maybe there's a reason I am not a demographer.
(Answer: no, no, no, no, No!)
From the article (about feral cats in California):
At that rate, it is clear we soon will not have enough ground to stand on: (400,000 x 6,000,000).While most states are stricter in their regulations regarding feral cats, case law in California legitimizes feral cat colonies. These colonies are established or tended by well meaning "caretakers" who believe that cats have a right to live in nature. They are fed and watered daily by the these caretakers. In some parts of the state -- Sonoma County for example -- colony densities approach three to five colonies per square mile and may have 20 or more feline members.
Realizing that one pair of cats, having two litters of five kittens per year, can exponentially produce over 400,000 cats in a lifetime, can we begin to understand the problem. And it is a worldwide problem. A recent study in Australia found more than 12 million feral cats in the country; feline experts in the U.S. peg the number of feral cats here at 70 million.
But then again, maybe there's a reason I am not a demographer.
More on anti-Semitism and its spread
Report: Muslim anti-Semitism 'strategic threat' to Israel | Jerusalem Post
It's an interesting report on the changing nature of anti-Semitism. An extract:
It's an interesting report on the changing nature of anti-Semitism. An extract:
Among the report's most worrying findings is the growth over the past three decades of uniquely Muslim roots to older European versions of anti-Semitism. Without discounting classical Christian Europe's canards regarding secret Jewish conspiracies, the ritual slaughter of non-Jewish children and other allegations of Jewish evil, anti-Semitism in the Muslim world increasingly finds its own, Islamic reasons for anti-Jewish hatred through new interpretations of Islamic history and scripture.
From the Koranic story of a Jewess who poisoned Muhammad, to the troubled relations between Muhammad and the Jewish tribes of Arabia, radical Islamist groups and thinkers have been using extreme anti-Semitic rhetoric that has grown increasingly popular with the Muslim public, particularly in Iran and the Arab states. Using well-known Koranic texts, these groups have been mapping out the Jews' "innate negative attributes" and teaching a paradigm of permanent struggle between Muslims and Jews.
The goal of this "Islamified" anti-Semitism, according to the report, is to transform the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a national territorial contest which could be resolved through compromise to a "historic, cultural and existential struggle for the supremacy of Islam."
Sounds about right to me. And the problem is, once you have a significant part of your population brainwashed with such stuff, how does the leadership talk them back down into a compromise with a side that that has been cast as inherently evil?
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