I freely admit I only have a broad brush knowledge of economics. Like most people, I read and listen to a range of commentators and try to work the ones who seem to make most sense. I also watch in amazement at how economic crises arrive, if not entirely unexpectedly when you look across all economic commentary, but certainly with a timing that seems to be well beyond the abilities of accurate forecasting. (Of course, some economists get some predictions right just by always predicting the next crisis is just around the corner.)
I have a hunch that the problem with economics is twofold: to a large extent it's based on human psychology (and even more unpredictably, human group psychology); but also I suspect that international financial systems have become so complicated that it has become extremely difficult for anyone to understand it in sufficient entirety to make accurate forecasts.
But what has become clear at the moment is that some economists have become well and truly caught up in a sort of culture war.
On the one hand, the Tea Partiers and small government libertarians in the US have decided that the key idea is the need for urgent reduction of debt. This ties in with wanting small government generally, which they argue also means low taxes, even while government debt is still high. They also both share a disbelief in climate change, frequently claiming it is merely the wolf of socialism and redistribution of wealth in sheep's clothing.
On the other hand, you have the proponents of Keynesian economics, arguing that stimulus is what is needed to help prevent a bad situation becoming worse. Although Tea Partiers and right wing pundits of all types now paint Keynesian economics as a Leftist sacrilege against good sense, the basic idea of Keynesian economics seems to have been accepted as making sense by many economists who you would not identify as being of the Left.
The culture war in the States clearly has Krugman on the one side, and the right wing noise machine on the other. (I'm not sure who to cite as a prominent economist who always supports what the Tea Partiers and Republicans say - their main support seems to come mainly from the likes of journalistic commentators in the Wall Street Journal and whole bunch of bloggers.)
In Australia, we get a whole lot of huffing and puffing about it from the "centre right" website Catallaxy, with Sinclair Davidson and especially Steve Kates citing every day the mantra "reduce debt, lower taxes". Of course, they totally oppose a carbon tax and a minerals tax, mainly (I suspect) because those phrases contain the word "tax".
Steve Kates seems so obsessive about Keynesian economics as the root of all evil that he has just written a whole book about it, and promptly promoted it on the Catallaxy website.
Sinclair Davidson is a member of the IPA, which not only runs campaigns against the carbon tax as a tax, it promotes actual disbelief in AGW science by hosting and publishing material by geologist sceptic Bob Carter. If you ask me, the IPA starts with its ideological hostility to taxes first, then works backwards to find any justification for no carbon pricing, including hosting a scientific maverick like Carter, despite his clear failure to make an actual dint the mainstream of climate science. They also hosted Vacla Klaus' recent talking tour of Australia, where his attack on carbon pricing was based on it being too much like communism.
Given that non-economist Rafe Champion takes every opportunity to promote anti-AGW articles from pure propagandists like Jonova, and spends all his time analysing AGW science as if it were entirely a result of Leftish propaganda; and Judith Sloan makes her disdain for the topic clear as well, it appears that not believing that climate change is real (or if real, not serious) is the essential requirement for anyone given posting rights on the Catallaxy.
This conflating of issues across economics and science seems to me to be a worrying phenomena. As the Europeans have shown, antagonism to climate change science does not have to be a prerequisite to conservatism in politics. Yet it is virtually a cornerstone of right wing small government philosophy in both America and Australia, even when the Coalition's policy is actually for direct government intervention, as opposed to the Labor trying to set up a more market orientated approach of an ETS.
Climate change skeptics spend all their time criticising alleged over-confidence of climate change scientists, and of course they have occasional PR wins when someone (often non scientists like Gore or Flannery) can be quoted with a careless exaggeration from years ago.
But when it comes to economics, Steve Kates in particular is like the epitome of over-confidence in one rock solid formula for economic truth, and it seems rather ludicrous to me that he and his co-bloggers should spend much of their time criticising climate change scientists for being stuck on one idea.
It seems to be common sense to me that the middle ground in economics is almost certainly right - a Keynesian type response is appropriate for some situations, but it can't always work and you obviously have to take into account the prospect of crippling your nation with too much debt for too little return. Same with taxes: sometimes lowering them will work with the economy generally, sometimes it won't. Refusing to increase taxes even moderately on the very richest (such as is happening in the States at the moment) makes little sense psychologically, even if it contributes to the bottom line minimally without reducing spending. Small government ideology can even be its own worst enemy to effective reductions in spending. I have noticed recently, for example, commentary emphasising how the key spending problem in the States is on health, and yet you get Australians in threads at Catallaxy, despite our egalitarian, high quality and yet cheaper health care system, siding with Tea Party opposition to substantial reform of the American system on pure ideological grounds of dislike of government involvement in anything.
The problem is, the ideologues on display at Catallaxy, as well as Republicans in the States, show no interest in trying to make objective assessment on climate science, and view it all through their "small government, lower tax, we hate Keynesians" ideological glasses. I wouldn't mind if they kept their little ideological school to themselves, but they spend a fair amount of their time as evangelists too, and in the US and Australia such evangelism seemingly has had some success on public opinion as to whether it is worth making any response to climate change at all.
They could contribute to useful discussion as to best policy options to move to reducing carbon, but instead they prefer to devote their time to insisting or insinuating there is not a real problem at all, and spreading negativity on an ETS in toto. I can't say that legitimate criticism of how a policy might fail is useless - I have a long standing scepticism of ETS' myself - but it is hard to get a clear idea of how valid some criticisms are when you know that they are all issuing from a largely ideologically driven hostility to accepting the very problem being addressed.
Anyway, that is how I see it: a bunch of non-scientifically interested economic ideologues interpreting a field of science through their cultural glasses and devoting a lot of time to criticising policy on it by claiming that all of the politicians and scientists involved are a bunch of political ideologues who have fooled themselves on both the science and policy.
Their position is not credible for the reasons I have outlined. To the extent that they run interference for their being no political response at all to reduce the use of carbon fuels, they are acting against the long term interests of humanity collectively.
The best that one who is sympathetic to their economics can argue is that they are trying to preserve a strong economy which will have better resources to adapt to climate change which is inevitable due to Chinese and Indian growth in carbon fuels regardless of what the West does.
The reason I do not find this compelling is because I find the uncertainty in the precise effects of climate change, something skeptics argue as a reason for doing nothing, is actually a more compelling argument for reducing CO2, because it may well that effective adaptation is simply not possible for many of the consequences of climate change. In the Australian context, for example, there is not a lot of adaptation to be done about severe flooding of the type that Queensland just went through: there is no other dam that can be built on the Brisbane River, and the floods were so widespread across the southern half of the State there was no relevance of talking about damming having any significant effect. The same applies for the flooding in Victoria, I expect.
Make formerly 1 in a 100 year floods happen, say, every 10 to 20 years, and the economic cost is surely very large, and the only adaptation possible is, I suppose, abandoning large swathes of Brisbane.
The same for droughts of the type currently happening in the USA. Make them more frequent, and I just don't know that there is any possibility of adapting to them at all.
Instead, you take the scientists' advice that limiting CO2 levels should limit to a lower range the possible climate changes.
My attitude to the problem of China and India is twofold: global climate change effects appear to be well on the way anyway, given the world's climate of the last year or so, and so recognition of the problem is not likely to be an issue. (In fact, it would appear that at least in China there is no serious government skepticism on the science, perhaps because "small government" is not an ideology that appeals to them!) Recognition of the equity issue, in terms of the telling these countries that they can't follow the Western route to increased prosperity, is going to be important, as will be all assistance possible to finding effective technological solutions to clean energy. Both of these are hindered by any large part of the West (being the USA and Australia) refusing to start any action towards carbon pricing, which should assist market moves to clean energy.
The bulk of non-ideologically bound economic commentary on the matter is that carbon pricing does not have to kill economies; I don't see why I should accept the ideologues against Keynesian economics are correct in their assessment to the contrary.
Of course, an international recession has its own problems for carbon pricing, and for all I know there may be a legitimate argument for delaying its start it in the worst affected countries. I suspect, however, that even in recession, it is not going to be a killer for recovery. Any reader who knows better can opine below. What I do think is that the longer the delay for any reason, the worse are the prospects of getting China and India to treat it as urgently as we should want them to.
There: that's the position of this non-economist, non-scientist, but compulsive blogger.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Quiet change
Uncovering your hidden ninja | The Japan Times Online
I thought this was quite a charming story from Amy Chavez about how Japanese psychology seems to work with respect to change. It certainly would indicate that the entrepreneurial spirit has to work a little differently there.
I thought this was quite a charming story from Amy Chavez about how Japanese psychology seems to work with respect to change. It certainly would indicate that the entrepreneurial spirit has to work a little differently there.
Look at the detail
The fact that some crops seem to do a bit better under increased CO2 is getting quite an airing in the anti carbon tax/climate change skeptic blogs at the moment. Just this morning, for example, Bolt has a US economist saying:
And the other point is, of course, that you don't get any wheat to eat at all if you have more severe droughts and baking summer heat.
Speaking of heat, John Nielsen-Gammon has been looking at the Texas drought. Texas certainly seems a dry place: in terms of length, this current one is not exceptional. However, combined with the degree of heat, even the cautious Nielsen-Gammon is saying this:
The experimental evidence suggests that at least 10 percentage points of the increase in wheat and rice yields since 1750 is the result of the roughly 35% increase in CO2 in the atmosphere that has occurred over the same period.Well, I'm not sure about the claimed yield increases, but you have to keep this recent finding in mind:
The study covered 24 cultivars studied in 112 experimental treatments from 11 countries. A significant growth dilution effect on grain protein was found: a change in grain yield of 10% by O3 was associated with a change in grain protein yield of 8.1% (R2 = 0.96), whereas a change in yield effect of 10% by CO2 was linked to a change in grain protein yield effect of 7.5% (R2 = 0.74). ...So, you might get more wheat, but have to eat all that extra to get the same amount of protein.
An important and novel finding was that elevated CO2 has a direct negative effect on grain protein accumulation independent of the yield effect, supporting recent evidence of CO2-induced impairment of nitrate uptake/assimilation.
And the other point is, of course, that you don't get any wheat to eat at all if you have more severe droughts and baking summer heat.
Speaking of heat, John Nielsen-Gammon has been looking at the Texas drought. Texas certainly seems a dry place: in terms of length, this current one is not exceptional. However, combined with the degree of heat, even the cautious Nielsen-Gammon is saying this:
I don’t consider it to be the worst drought on record, because the 1950s drought lasted for seven years, and 1956 alone gives 2011 a run for its money. But, combine it with July being the warmest month on record for Texas, and it probably becomes the most unbearable. It may well be the worst drought on record for agriculture.More generally (by which I mean, including outside of Texas) the mid West heat wave is breaking lots of records, but seems to be attracting little attention here.
Monday, August 08, 2011
Kilometer high
That tall building in Dubai comes in at 828 m, but this building for Jeddah, apparently still being designed in America, but with the promise that work on the foundations will start soon, will actually break the kilometer mark:
That little platform up on the top part is apparently this:
"....a sky terrace, roughly 30 meters (98 feet) in diameter, at level 157. It is an outdoor amenity space intended for use by the penthouse floor."
Your own little garden hanging 157 floors above the ground? Very Jetsons, but also makes me feel queasy just imagining being on it.
Anyhow, more at Dezeen.
This'll be interesting
Professor Murry Salby from Macquarie University gave a talk at the Sydney Institute last week in which he claimed to have shown that CO2 is "at the back of the bus" as regards driving the climate. The details were a tad sketchy, and seemingly left his audience a little bewildered, and no one has yet been able to get their hands on a copy of his slides. But the whole issue is to do with the carbon cycle. He says he has a peer reviewed paper coming out on this in about 6 weeks, although I don't think anyone knows in which journal either.
The claims are so extraordinary that several people in comments threads at Deltoid and Tamino (see link at side) have wondered if it is all a hoax.
The reasons as to why virtually everyone in the mainstream climate science field thinks the Professor (who appears to have done detailed and creditable work on the ozone hole and has no previous reputation as a climate change skeptic) has managed to fool himself are many, and will be apparent from the two links in the previous paragraph. I see that even John Neilsen-Gammon, a climatologist "believer" who tends to be very polite and non political in his handling of the topic, can't see that it can possibly be right.
One thing I don't think many people have noticed is that skeptic Roy Spencer turned up at Catallaxy and also didn't seem to think it was at all likely either.
So what is the explanation for this? We will have to wait a few weeks to see.
In the meantime, I can predict this: those climate change denying sites who have promoted this talk will simply move on and never mention it again if it compellingly proved to be a massive misinterpretation that convinces no one. That is how they work: raise any doubt possible, and move on when it is shown to be wrong.
The claims are so extraordinary that several people in comments threads at Deltoid and Tamino (see link at side) have wondered if it is all a hoax.
The reasons as to why virtually everyone in the mainstream climate science field thinks the Professor (who appears to have done detailed and creditable work on the ozone hole and has no previous reputation as a climate change skeptic) has managed to fool himself are many, and will be apparent from the two links in the previous paragraph. I see that even John Neilsen-Gammon, a climatologist "believer" who tends to be very polite and non political in his handling of the topic, can't see that it can possibly be right.
One thing I don't think many people have noticed is that skeptic Roy Spencer turned up at Catallaxy and also didn't seem to think it was at all likely either.
So what is the explanation for this? We will have to wait a few weeks to see.
In the meantime, I can predict this: those climate change denying sites who have promoted this talk will simply move on and never mention it again if it compellingly proved to be a massive misinterpretation that convinces no one. That is how they work: raise any doubt possible, and move on when it is shown to be wrong.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Memory lane
I finally got around to buying a slide/negative scanner, to deal with digitising some stuff that’s been in drawers and boxes for some time.
It was only a cheapie from Harvey Norman, so I am not sure if that is why the colour on the slides looks stronger than the colour on the scans, but still the results are good enough, from these first few attempts:
New York, December 1979.
View from top of World Trade Centre, if I’m not mistaken.
A very blue looking Washington Monument.
And who would this be?:
Pancake success
I’ve tried various pancake recipes for Sunday breakfast over the last year or two. Sure, I was able to do basic, simple pancakes (anyone can), but my wife showed me up by making the type where you separate the eats, beat the egg white and fold it into the batter to give it an extra lightness. (She also likes to use buttermilk.) These quickly became the kid’s favourites (and mine.)
But today I tried a similar recipe, with just a bit of variation on the quantities and technique involved, and it worked extremely well, even without buttermilk. What was the secret to its great success today? Was it that the butter that goes in the batter was unsalted, and not only melted, but “cooked” for two to three minutes too? Was it the pinch of tartar to the egg whites before they were beaten? Of course, the large pinch of cinnamon might have helped too.
But the key thing is that the texture and sweetness of this batch were just right.
I’ll record it here, just in case we ever lose the magazine it came from:
1. melt 60 g unsalted butter in small saucepan and “cook”until golden (2 –3 minutes). Let cool a bit.
2. whisk 450 ml milk, 50 g castor sugar, 3 egg yolks, large pinch of cinnamon and salt. Whisk in the melted butter.
3. sift in 380 g self raising flour. Fold in until just combined.
4. whisk the 3 egg whites with pinch of cream of tartar until it peaks. Fold gently into the batter.
5. Cook.
This makes quite a large batch; about 10 – 12 large pancakes.
Thank you Gourmet Traveller; although I’m going to bother with candied walnuts on a Sunday morning.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Could be something to this
Look, I found this via the religion/culture site First Things, which found it via some reader who suggested it. It's not like I have The Hairpin, self described as "a ladies website run by Edith Zimmerman" on my bookmarks, OK? Although, to be honest, now that I look at it, it looks much more interesting that I expected for a "ladies website." Anyway, someone slap me in the face quickly, and let's get back on track....
The post in question was Favourite Books of the Secretly Jerky, and I thought it was pretty funny.
For example:
The post in question was Favourite Books of the Secretly Jerky, and I thought it was pretty funny.
For example:
Someone in the comments thread (which starts off like a sandwich pun thread of doom - you should read it Tim) adds:Secretly Loves Himself More Than He Loves [Anything]: Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand.
He’s not going to feed your fish when you go out of town, and he’ll be mean to your mom.
Secretly Planning to Cheat on You: On the Road, Jack Kerouac. I’m not going to sugarcoat it. This book is straight up terrible. It's a bunch of rambling about eating some sandwiches and driving around while eating sandwiches, and driving around, and then making some more sandwiches, which you will then eat while driving around. It is the universal favorite book of commitment-phobes. And please don't quote me that paragraph about how the only people for you are the mad ones who pop like roman candles. You know what’s better than a dude who pops like a roman candle? A dude who can keep it in his pants, rent his own apartment, and cook you something other than a sandwich once in a while.
And YES to the quoting Kerouac's mad ones, roman candle thing. If I had a dollar for every Facebook friend who put that in their quotes/bio... I didn't realize there were so many crazy, bright, burning stars of uniqueness out there!
Friday, August 05, 2011
Cute
Short Sharp Science: To boldly go where no Lego man has gone before
The shuttle programme may be over, but NASA has not stopped taking passengers into space. Three Lego figurines - the Roman god Jupiter, his wife Juno and Galileo Galilei, who discovered Jupiter's biggest moons four centuries ago - will be hitching a ride to the solar system's largest planet aboard the Juno space probe, set to launch tomorrow. The probe is carrying the unusual passengers as part of a bid to help engage more children with science.There is a photo at the link.
What did Howard want?
Carbon Tax
The above piece by Labor's Mark Dreyfus does a pretty good job of finding quotes from John Howard that indicate he was prepared to have an ETS ahead of what other countries would do.
Previously, I had thought Howard was ambiguous on the point in his pre-election statements.
So, it looks more and more like a full blown Coalition retreat.
The above piece by Labor's Mark Dreyfus does a pretty good job of finding quotes from John Howard that indicate he was prepared to have an ETS ahead of what other countries would do.
Previously, I had thought Howard was ambiguous on the point in his pre-election statements.
So, it looks more and more like a full blown Coalition retreat.
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Something I didn't know about rats
I think most people (well, people with rodent interests) have heard that rats can't vomit, but I didn't know this:
...rats do still need a strategy to cope with ingested toxins. Rat food avoidance isn't foolproof. Rats do experience nausea and have evolved an alternative to vomiting: pica, the consumption of non-nutritive substances. When rats feel nauseous they eat things like clay, kaolin (a type of clay), dirt and even hardwood bedding (eating clay and dirt is a type of pica called geophagia). Their consumption isn't random, though: rats offered a mixture of pebbles, soil and clay after being given poison prefer to eat the clay (Mitchell 1976).Rats engage in pica in response to motion-sickness (Mitchell et al. 1977a, b, Morita et al. 1988b), nausea-inducing drugs (Mitchell et al. 1977c, Clark et al. 1997), radiation (Yamamoto et al. 2002b), and after consuming poisons (Mitchell 1976), or emetic drugs (Takeda et al. 1993). The incidence of pica decreases in response to anti-emetics (Takeda et al. 1993) and anti-motion sickness drugs (Morita et al. 1988a). Pica in rats is therefore analogous to vomiting in other species.
Playing at superhero
TV's Superheroes of Suburbia shows secret lives of citizens who patrol streets | UK news | The Guardian
Everyone needs a (stupid) hobby, I suppose...By day he is a mild-mannered financial adviser from Devon. But at night he dons an outfit that makes him look like a cross between a riot cop and a gladiator to become "the Dark Spartan", roaming the mean streets of Torquay on Friday and Saturday nights trying to keep the good people of the English Riviera safe.
The Dark Spartan – aka 27-year-old Will – is the star of a Channel 4 programme, First Cut: Superheroes of Suburbia. According to the programme, there is a growing band of upstanding citizens such as Will to be found trying to clean up the streets of Britain. As well as the Dark Spartan, there is a former soldier called Ken who operates as "the Shadow" and uses "ninjutsu" techniques and smoke bombs to tackle boy racers in Yeovil, Somerset. In Yorkshire, Keiran, a 17-year-old comic-book obsessive, takes on the persona of "Noir" to target muggers.
It gets worse
'Ugly' Tasmanian town upset over Lonely Planet rating
Apparently Burnie is cited as a very ugly Tasmanian town by Lonely Planet.
I'm sure it has nothing on the old mining town of Zeehan near the West coast. There does not seem to be a decent looking house in the place - it all looks like cheap as chips mining houses thrown up in 50's or 60's.
But it does have a pretty good museum, in a couple of grand old buildings left in the middle of small town decay.
Apparently Burnie is cited as a very ugly Tasmanian town by Lonely Planet.
I'm sure it has nothing on the old mining town of Zeehan near the West coast. There does not seem to be a decent looking house in the place - it all looks like cheap as chips mining houses thrown up in 50's or 60's.
But it does have a pretty good museum, in a couple of grand old buildings left in the middle of small town decay.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Philosophical Wednesday
Downward Causation | Cosmic Variance | Discover Magazine
Sean Carroll at Cosmic Varience delves into science and philosopher again with an interesting post talking about whether higher levels of emergent phenomena can properly be said to have "downward causation" on the lower levels of physical reality.
Because this is used as an "anti-reductionist" argument by some, Carroll, strongly atheist, reacts against it, and tries to explain why.
The comments that follow are just as interesting. It is, of course, a question that has been addressed by many philosophers of the mind.
This is a topic that I often find crossing my mind. I am tempted to add a comment there that anyone who has had a strong reaction to hearing the words "I love you" knows that downward causation happens. But, probably, serious physicists would say it doesn't.
Sean Carroll at Cosmic Varience delves into science and philosopher again with an interesting post talking about whether higher levels of emergent phenomena can properly be said to have "downward causation" on the lower levels of physical reality.
Because this is used as an "anti-reductionist" argument by some, Carroll, strongly atheist, reacts against it, and tries to explain why.
The comments that follow are just as interesting. It is, of course, a question that has been addressed by many philosophers of the mind.
This is a topic that I often find crossing my mind. I am tempted to add a comment there that anyone who has had a strong reaction to hearing the words "I love you" knows that downward causation happens. But, probably, serious physicists would say it doesn't.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Parasite strikes again?
A Common Parasite May be Linked to Brain Cancers
According to a latest geographic analysis led by the U.S. Geological Survey and French infectious disease research institute MIVEGEC, countries where Toxoplasma gondii is common had higher incidences of adult brain cancers than in those countries where the organism is not common.
Toxoplasma gondii is a single-celled organism found worldwide in at least one-third of the human population, researchers said.
Bad figures
Anorexic at five in Britain
Nearly 100 children aged between five and seven in Britain have been treated for anorexia or bulimia in the past three years, according to figures released on Monday.
The statistics show that 197 children aged between five and nine were treated in hospital in England for eating disorders, fuelling campaigners' fears that young children are being influenced by photographs in celebrity magazines.
The figures from 35 hospitals showed 98 children were aged between five and seven at the time of treatment and 99 aged eight or nine. Almost 400 were between the ages of 10 and 12, with more than 1,500 between 13 and 15 years old.
Hansen as renewables realist
James Hansen may promote the worst predictions of global warming, but when it comes to finding solutions, he appears very much a realist about the limited potential for renewable energy to rapidly replace carbon fuels.
He has a new essay up about this, and it is attracting some attention. Basically, he thinks new generation nuclear is the way to go, but his present analysis of its promise is definitely on the shallow side.
He has a new essay up about this, and it is attracting some attention. Basically, he thinks new generation nuclear is the way to go, but his present analysis of its promise is definitely on the shallow side.
Monday, August 01, 2011
Important overlooked climate change correlations
Reading a certain right wing blog has taught me the following relationships:
I'm hoping for a burqa version
BBC News - India 'Slutwalk' sex harassment protest held in Delhi
Most of the marchers in Delhi were soberly dressed in jeans and T-shirts or traditional shalwar kameez.
That bad
Did Amy Winehouse die from going cold turkey? - By Jeremy Singer-Vine - Slate Magazine
Slate's explainer column says you really can risk death by going cold turkey if you are an alcoholic.
Didn't know that.
Slate's explainer column says you really can risk death by going cold turkey if you are an alcoholic.
Didn't know that.
Republicans will pretend they didn't notice
July heat in Washington was unprecedented - The Washington Post
Relentless and punishing, July’s heat was unrivaled in 140 years of Washington, D.C., weather record-keeping. The July temperature averaged 84.5 degrees at Reagan National Airport — Washington’s official weather station — more than a degree above July 2010 and July 1993, which previously held the mark for hottest month.
Spencer misfire, again
Spencer & Braswell’s new paper | Climate Etc.
When even Judith Curry finds a lot of problems with Roy Spencer's latest attempt to prove every climate scientist apart from him is wrong, you know that it is not by any stretch of the imagination a serious threat to the "orthodox" view of AGW.
This post by Curry is actually one that is useful, for a change, as it notes the political use to which Spencer's study was put, and the reaction from Real Climate, and Fred Moolten, who for some reason has taken on the job of being the voice of AGW orthodoxy on Curry's blog.
But Andrew Bolt says: the guy who wrote about polar bears, he's done something wrong, apparently.
(The Alaska Despatch, meanwhile, reprinted an email from the relevant Alaskan Bureau, saying this in part:
When even Judith Curry finds a lot of problems with Roy Spencer's latest attempt to prove every climate scientist apart from him is wrong, you know that it is not by any stretch of the imagination a serious threat to the "orthodox" view of AGW.
This post by Curry is actually one that is useful, for a change, as it notes the political use to which Spencer's study was put, and the reaction from Real Climate, and Fred Moolten, who for some reason has taken on the job of being the voice of AGW orthodoxy on Curry's blog.
But Andrew Bolt says: the guy who wrote about polar bears, he's done something wrong, apparently.
(The Alaska Despatch, meanwhile, reprinted an email from the relevant Alaskan Bureau, saying this in part:
We are limited in what we can say about a pending investigation, but I can assure you that the decision had nothing to do with his scientific work, or anything relating to a five-year old journal article, as advocacy groups and the news media have incorrectly speculated. Nor is this a "witch hunt" to suppress the work of our many scientists and discourage them from speaking the truth. Quite the contrary. In this case, it was the result of new information on a separate subject brought to our attention very recently.Yet thousands of climate skeptics around the world will go on thinking this was a significant matter of another nail in AGW's coffin, or some such rubbish.)
A slightly optimistic story
Advanced Reactor Gets Closer to Reality� - Technology Review:
"Terrapower, a startup funded in part by Nathan Myhrvold and Bill Gates, is moving closer to building a new type of nuclear reactor called a traveling wave reactor that runs on an abundant form of uranium. The company sees it as a possible alternative to fusion reactors, which are also valued for their potential to produce power from a nearly inexhaustible source of fuel.
Work on Terrapower's reactor design began in 2006. Since then, the company has changed its original design to make the reactor look more like a conventional one. The changes would make the reactor easier to engineer and build. The company has also calculated precise dimensions and performance parameters for the reactor. Terrapower expects to begin construction of a 500-megawatt demonstration plant in 2016 and start it up in 2020. It's working with a consortium of national labs, universities, and corporations to overcome the primary technical challenge of the new reactor: developing new materials that can withstand use in the reactor core for decades at a time. It has yet to secure a site for an experimental plant—or the funding to build it."
Economics of GM
GM crops and foods: promises, profits and politics - On Line Opinion - 1/8/2011
I don't follow the GM food issue closely, and I don't know anything about Bob Phelps as an anti GM advocate.
However, I thought that at the least the economics argument, about how Australian non GM canola has a big market and is sold at a premium, was interesting.
He sounds a relatively sensible person in his opposition to GM, but I could be wrong...
I don't follow the GM food issue closely, and I don't know anything about Bob Phelps as an anti GM advocate.
However, I thought that at the least the economics argument, about how Australian non GM canola has a big market and is sold at a premium, was interesting.
He sounds a relatively sensible person in his opposition to GM, but I could be wrong...
Why large amounts of methane may be even worse than thought
Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness
This paper can be available in full via that link, and it sounds pretty important for long term climate change issues.
As it explains at the start:
The result would be, they think, less clouds, and therefore:
This paper can be available in full via that link, and it sounds pretty important for long term climate change issues.
As it explains at the start:
Among the various worst-case scenarios for catastrophic climate change suggested over the past decades, the so-called clathrate-gun hypothesis (Kennett et al., 2000) is one of theThey go on to note that, although most consider the large scale release of methane from clathrate reservoirs under the oceans during this century is improbable, it's important to look at what would happen if we did get a surprise.
most dramatic. In this scenario, a rise in temperatures leads to the destabilization and subsequent release of methane clathrates in the Arctic permafrost and seabed into the atmosphere, vastly amplifying the initial warming. This type
of mechanism has been suggested as a possible reason for millennial-scale warming during the last ice age, as well as the Paleocene – Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; see e.g. Kennett et al., 2000), though the evidence so far is inconclusive (Clark et al., 2008; Sowers, 2006). One criticism of the hypothesis is that the amount of methane estimated to have been released during the PETM is not sufficient to explain the observed warming, at least if only the longwave radiative forcings of CH4 and its oxidation product CO2 are accounted for.
The result would be, they think, less clouds, and therefore:
Together, the indirect CH4-O3 and CH4-OH-aerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases.To which Andrew Bolt will say - but Tim Flannery bought a house on the water.
Also good for the classroom
Tiny shocks help schizophrenics (Science Alert)
In a recent study using a technique called transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS), scientists from Neuroscience Research Australia (NeuRA) have shown that brain function in people with schizophrenia can improve after applying the stimulation for just 20 minutes.
“We found that this type of brain stimulation boosted learning from feedback which is important in everyday life, for example in learning to act on cues from other people in social situations,” says lead researcher, Dr Tom Weickert.
“There are very few new treatment options for people with schizophrenia, so finding a different treatment that is promising and also has little in the way of side effects is very exciting,” he says.
tDCS transmits a very mild electrical current to the brain through electrodes on the scalp. This technique has previously been shown to improve brain function in healthy people, as well as people with depression.
A strange story for Monday
The princess who swallowed a glass piano � Mind Hacks
The programme was created by writer and poet Deborah Levy who “considers the true story of Princess Alexandra Amelie of Bavaria, 1826-1875 who at the age of 23 was observed awkwardly walking sideways down the corridors of her family palace. When questioned by her worried royal parents, she announced that she had swallowed a grand glass piano.”
As we’ve discussed previously, glass delusions were quite regularly reported by physicians in the 19th century but are now seemingly extinct in a curious cultural shift in madness.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Catfish noodling
I had not heard of catfish noodling before, but Hamish and Andy enlightened me last night:
I suspect this Youtube extract won't last, so watch it while you can.
I suspect this Youtube extract won't last, so watch it while you can.
I don't think he liked it
'Transformers: Dark of the Moon' | The Japan Times Online
This reviewer really, really hated the latest Transformers movie, and I like many of his lines:
This reviewer really, really hated the latest Transformers movie, and I like many of his lines:
Given enough money, almost any filmmaker could deliver a big, loud, silly popcorn movie about giant alien robots beating the living crap out of each other, but it takes the special talent of director Michael Bay to make such a movie totally repellent. ...My son has seen it, he went with a friend and his Mum, so I didn't see it. Just lucky I guess.
Perhaps you'd like to know about the story? So would I...
Perpetual dweeb Sam Witwicky (LaBeouf) inexplicably has an even hotter girlfriend than before, Carly (Huntington-Whiteley), despite being unemployed and constantly whining about how having alien robot friends doesn't land him a cushy Homeland Security desk job, and sending abusive-boyfriend signals every time Carly talks about her cool boss (Patrick Dempsey). But then again, Sam's mom jokes about her son's penis size (seriously), so you can forgive the poor boy for having "issues."
Melting Arctic feedbacks
BBC News - Huge Arctic fire hints at new climate cue
When the tundra gets warm and dry, it burns. It burnt a lot in 2007. Seeing the ice melt this year is close to the 2007 level, I wonder if it will happen again this year?
When the permafrost melts, it releases more carbon dioxide.
That's about it, in short form.
When the tundra gets warm and dry, it burns. It burnt a lot in 2007. Seeing the ice melt this year is close to the 2007 level, I wonder if it will happen again this year?
When the permafrost melts, it releases more carbon dioxide.
That's about it, in short form.
Getting paranoid
China cracks down on wi-fi in public spaces
China has ordered public spaces offering wi-fi web access to install costly software to enable police to identify people using the service, state media said Thursday.The software, which also gives police a list of all websites visited by an online user, costs between 20,000 yuan ($3,100) and 60,000 yuan, the China Business News said.
As a result, many establishments such as bars, restaurants, cafes and bookstores have decided to stop providing wireless Internet to their customers despite its popularity, to avoid paying the money, the report said.
In Beijing, cafe and restaurant owners have been told they face a minimum fine of 5,000 yuan if they continue to offer wireless without installing the software, it said.
"In serious cases," offenders could see their Internet cut off for up to six months, the report said.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Hard to visit?
Trojan asteroid dances ahead of the Earth as it orbits of the sun | Science | guardian.co.uk
I wonder how difficult it is for a rocket to get to an object that is more or less in the same orbit as Earth.
I wonder how difficult it is for a rocket to get to an object that is more or less in the same orbit as Earth.
That rare?
Woman has healthy baby at 50
Not that I know anything about this topic, apart from a dim memory from a sitcom in the 1970's, but I didn't think this was so rare:
Not that I know anything about this topic, apart from a dim memory from a sitcom in the 1970's, but I didn't think this was so rare:
A 50-year-old Queensland woman has made history as the oldest Australian woman to fall pregnant naturally and give birth to a healthy first child.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
In important squirrel research news
Scientists make squirrels hibernate
(Actually, how much do hibernating animals dream, I wonder. I'm sure someone has done some research on it, but I don't have time to look just now.)
The non-hibernating squirrels were tested three times during one year. They were tested during the summer when they were not hibernating, again early in their hibernation season and a third time mid-way through the hibernation season. If animals were hibernating before the test Jinka woke them up to see if the substance would cause them to go back into hibernation.The thing I'm most interested in is: how drowsy looking is a hibernating squirrel when you wake it up.
(Actually, how much do hibernating animals dream, I wonder. I'm sure someone has done some research on it, but I don't have time to look just now.)
Arguing under the clouds
Why the UK must choose renewables over nuclear: an answer to Monbiot | Jonathon Porritt | Environment | guardian.co.uk
There appears to be an argument underway between Monbiot and Jonathon Porritt about that latter's claim that it's a question of nuclear or renewables. Monbiot argues instead that it shouldn't be an "either/or" issue.
Porritt goes into a lot of detail about true cost of nuclear, and claims big things for the coming lower costs of solar power in particular.
There are many links that look interesting.
But - the overwhelming thing I keep thinking about in terms of this is - solar power for England? - it's under cloud for about 8/10 of the year, isn't it?
There appears to be an argument underway between Monbiot and Jonathon Porritt about that latter's claim that it's a question of nuclear or renewables. Monbiot argues instead that it shouldn't be an "either/or" issue.
Porritt goes into a lot of detail about true cost of nuclear, and claims big things for the coming lower costs of solar power in particular.
There are many links that look interesting.
But - the overwhelming thing I keep thinking about in terms of this is - solar power for England? - it's under cloud for about 8/10 of the year, isn't it?
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Three science stories
* There's been a bit of media attention given to hints from data from the LHC that it might have found the Higgs boson. Peter Woit at Not Even Wrong has a good summary of what the LHC has achieved, and it appears to be quite a lot in a very short time. (Wouldn't it be kind of embarrassing if it makes all of its discoveries in the first couple of years, though?) Anyway, here's PW's summary:
* Was the Universe born spinning? From Physics World:
* Andy Revkin, in a column about underwater volcanoes, notes an incident I don't recall hearing about before:
Anyway, no wonder the Navy has trouble getting personnel for its submarines.
The bottom line is much stronger results ruling out supersymmetry, extra dimensions, black holes and other exotica, restriction of the possible mass range of the Higgs to about 114-150 GeV, and a tantalizingly small and not yet statistically significant excess of possible Higgs events in the mass range 120-145 GeV.Interesting.The big surprise here is that the experiments have done a fantastic job of getting these analyses of the data done at record speed. Before the LHC turn-on, estimates based on experience at the Tevatron tended to be that it would be 2012 before we saw completed analyses of a significant amount of the 2011 data. A lot of people have been working long hours and going without a summer vacation… The bottom line though is not a surprise, but rather pretty much what many people (including myself) expected. The unconvincing popular theoretical models of the last few decades have finally been confronted with experiment, which is falsifying them, to the extent that they can be falsified. It’s an inspiring example of the scientific method working as it should. The remaining mass range for the Higgs is the expected one, and, as expected, this is the hardest place to separate the Higgs from the background. If it’s really there, the data collected during the rest of this year should be enough to give a statistically significant signal. So, within a few months we should finally have an answer to the question that has been plaguing the subject for decades: “Higgs or something else?”. This is very exciting.
* Was the Universe born spinning? From Physics World:
The universe was born spinning and continues to do so around a preferred axis – that is the bold conclusion of physicists in the US who have studied the rotation of more than 15,000 galaxies. While most cosmological theories have suggested that – on a large scale – the universe is the same in every direction, these recent findings suggest that the early universe was born spinning about a specific axis. If correct, this also means that the universe does not possess mirror symmetry, but rather has a preferred right or left "handedness". ...I don't quite get the next bit, though, in that I didn't think it made sense to talk of subatomic spin as if it were, well, actual spin:
Longo and a team of five undergraduate students catalogued the rotation direction of 15,158 spiral galaxies with data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. They found that galaxies have a preferred direction of rotation – there was an excess of left-handed, or counter-clockwise, rotating spiral galaxies in the part of the sky toward the north pole of the Milky Way. The effect extended beyond 600 million light-years away.
The excess is small, about 7%, and Longo says that the chance that it could be a cosmic accident is something like one in a million.
What impact would this have on the Big Bang and how the universe was born? Observers in our universe could never see outside of it, so we cannot directly tell if the universe is spinning, in principle, explains Longo. "But if we could show that our universe still retains the initial angular momentum within its galaxies, it would be evidence that our universe exists within some larger space and it was born spinning relative to other universes," he told physicsworld.com. "I picture the Big Bang as being born with spin, just like a proton or electron has spin. As the universe expanded, the initial angular momentum would be spread the bits of matter that we call galaxies, so that the galaxies now tend to spin in a preferred direction," he explained.Others are not convinced he's got a valid conclusion on his hands. Still...interesting.
* Andy Revkin, in a column about underwater volcanoes, notes an incident I don't recall hearing about before:
Substantial gaps persist in basic oceanographic knowledge. One such gap was closed in January, 2005, when an American nuclear submarine making 33 knots 500 feet beneath the surface crashed headlong into an uncharted seamount 360 miles southeast of Guam.Here's Andy's link to the New York Times 2005 story of the accident, and it makes for fascinating reading. It opens with this:
Blood was everywhere. Sailors lay sprawled across the deck, several of them unconscious, others simply dazed.Did I read something about it before, and have forgotten? I don't think so.Even the captain was asking, "What just happened?" All anyone knew for sure was that the nuclear-powered attack submarine had slammed into something solid and very large, and that it had to get to the surface, fast.
Anyway, no wonder the Navy has trouble getting personnel for its submarines.
When "I'm really, really sorry" doesn't cut it
Majority want Murdoch to be forced out of BSkyB altogether - The Independent
Two out of three people believe Rupert Murdoch's News Corp should have to dispose of its entire stake in BSkyB. According to a new survey for The Independent by ComRes, 65 per cent agree that the phone-hacking scandal shows News Corp is not a "fit and proper" organisation to own any part of BSkyB, while 26 per cent disagree.For those who think Murdoch is a victim of left wing hysteria led by the likes of The Guardian, I'll use his "Daily Telegraph" defence, which comes in handy when running front page campaigns against incumbent governments: The Guardian is not running a campaign, it is merely reflecting public opinion.
Good for us, at least
More Aussie beef in pipeline amid cesium fears | The Japan Times Online
Domestic demand for Australian beef may increase after radiation was found in meat here and amid concern that cesium leaks from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant may spread farther, according to Australian Agricultural Co. Ltd.
"We're expecting to see better demand out of Japan as they move away from their own herds," Chief Executive Officer David Farley said on a conference call Monday. That follows a boost in demand for beef after radiation was detected in domestic seafood in March, he said.
Sorry, I still find you obnoxious
Death prompts bike groups to push for tougher laws
Look, I guess I'm OK with people who use cycling as a normal commuting choice. I'm even happy for them to do that sedately on a footpath, as they do in Japan and (no doubt) other asian countries.
But put them in lycra and trying to do 40 kph on a normal city road, or even on a shared bike/pedestrian path - no, just go away and do your speed stuff on a track.
Tour de France wins do not make anyone feel different about that.
Look, I guess I'm OK with people who use cycling as a normal commuting choice. I'm even happy for them to do that sedately on a footpath, as they do in Japan and (no doubt) other asian countries.
But put them in lycra and trying to do 40 kph on a normal city road, or even on a shared bike/pedestrian path - no, just go away and do your speed stuff on a track.
Tour de France wins do not make anyone feel different about that.
Right wing in Europe
Norwegian massacre is wrong, not far right
Peter Hartcher's take on right wing politics in Europe made for interesting reading, I thought. It's not a topic that is easy to keep a track of from afar.
(He also makes the point that terrorist acts do not usually work the way their instigators think they will - a lesson that terrorists seem very slow to learn.)
Peter Hartcher's take on right wing politics in Europe made for interesting reading, I thought. It's not a topic that is easy to keep a track of from afar.
(He also makes the point that terrorist acts do not usually work the way their instigators think they will - a lesson that terrorists seem very slow to learn.)
Monday, July 25, 2011
Oakeshott talks
Yes, of course Rob Oakeshott make a hugely self-indulgent and embarrassing spectacle of himself when he and Tony Windsor announced they would support a Gillard led government.
But listen to him this morning on Radio National, talking about his support for the government's carbon tax, and his view that MP's are elected to spend the time looking at the detail of an issue and then make a decision that is in the long term interests of the country, and he comes across as principled and reasonable.
But listen to him this morning on Radio National, talking about his support for the government's carbon tax, and his view that MP's are elected to spend the time looking at the detail of an issue and then make a decision that is in the long term interests of the country, and he comes across as principled and reasonable.
On the up-side
Why America's power grid is weathering the heat wave - CSMonitor.com
There is an usual aspect of the current American heat wave discussed here at the CSM: how come their power grid is coping with it so well? One factor shows that even economic downturns can have a sort of up-side:
There is an usual aspect of the current American heat wave discussed here at the CSM: how come their power grid is coping with it so well? One factor shows that even economic downturns can have a sort of up-side:
A lot of it has to do with a weak economy that has left plenty of backup power available. The rapid growth of energy-efficiency measures is also responsible, as well as something called demand response – when commercial and industrial electricity users are throttled back by the use of computer-controlled switches and the Internet.
Just a touch of hypocrisy
Isn't it odd that Pajamas Media should link to an article "Can the Left Resist the Temptation to Exploit the Norway Attacks", and the same day run one which is all about (alleged) anti-Semitism in that country? (It is attracting a significant number of hostile comments.) Mind you, as I noted yesterday, the first American right quasi-political comment I read anywhere about it was at Powerline, with its "but if only there had been more people with guns there" twaddle.
Meanwhile, in Australia, Andrew Bolt does his shark jumping routine again, re-posting some singing Nazi youth (from which movie, I don't know) when discussing the Greens.
(I would never vote for the Greens, but this is just childish. They have every chance of losing some of their current level of popularity when Bob Brown goes, anyway.)
Meanwhile, in Australia, Andrew Bolt does his shark jumping routine again, re-posting some singing Nazi youth (from which movie, I don't know) when discussing the Greens.
(I would never vote for the Greens, but this is just childish. They have every chance of losing some of their current level of popularity when Bob Brown goes, anyway.)
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Triple down Andrew
OK, well, who didn't think that Islamic terrorism was probably behind the terrible events in Norway earlier today? I mean, even Geraldine Doogue on Radio National this morning opined that it appeared to be an attack that would have had to involve several people and much care in planning, and (I think) there was mention of the Mohammed cartoon controversy.
So, I can't really say Andrew Bolt can be blamed for suspecting the same.
But when it turns out that it wasn't Muslim terrorism, why do this? It appears to be one of the strangest cases of doubling down on an error that I have ever seen:
He's getting worse by the day.
So, I can't really say Andrew Bolt can be blamed for suspecting the same.
But when it turns out that it wasn't Muslim terrorism, why do this? It appears to be one of the strangest cases of doubling down on an error that I have ever seen:
And then, Andrew does a triple down on a kinda offensive attempts at point scoring by noting with apparent approval John Hinderaker's very American argument that drives me crazy: to paraphrase, "well, that just goes to show what happens when you don't have enough normal people carrying guns". (Particularly when they are in swimmers on an island enjoying the sunshine, or at an Australian historical site, I suppose.) Hinderaker writes:UPDATE
In fact:
“Explosives were found on the island,” deputy Oslo police chief Sveining Sponheim told reporters. He said a man detained by police was aged 32 and ”ethnic Norwegian.”
Even so, the history of Islamic violence in Scandinavia suggests Muslim immigration there has been a bad deal for the locals:
It was not immediately known who was behind the bombing, but Norway’s intelligence police agency (PST) said in February that Islamic extremism was a major threat to the country…
... police last year arrested three Muslim men based in Norway suspected of planning an attack using explosives in the Scandinavian country.
Many facts are still unknown, but at this point it appears that a key ingredient in the tragedy was the fact that the killer had the only gun on the island.I honestly think that this type of argument is anathema for about 95% of Australians, yet Andrew gives it a run.
He's getting worse by the day.
Farewell to the shuttle
To be honest, despite my fondness for manned space exploration, I wasn't all that sad to see the end of the space shuttle program this week. Ever since the Columbia broke up over Texas in 2003, I found it difficult to avoid the feeling that the ageing program was not another disaster just waiting to happen. I mean, we're talking machines built in the 1970's and early 1980's. I'm not even particularly keen on flying in aircraft more than 25 years old, let alone a hybrid rocket plane which gets vibrated to hell on every launch and might have had its plans drawn by hand on that blue blueprint paper while I was still at high school.
On the other hand, I do share the disappointment that the manned space program has felt rudderless for, oh, about the entire 30 years we've watched the shuttle. American Presidents of both political persuasions never seem to have got it quite right ever since Kennedy: you know, set a goal that is achievable, expands humanity's reach in the universe, and achieve it. How hard can it be? Well, OK, pretty damn hard.
At the risk of repeating myself (but what's a blog for if you can't do that?): I don't see much point in aiming for Mars when you have such big gaps in knowledge as to how it will be achieved. I mean, I don't think anyone yet has a good plan for a spaceship that can ensure the survivability of astronauts from cosmic radiation on the trip, not to mention a foolproof space toilet. In reality, what you probably need is engines that get you there and back as soon as possible, yet you get the distinct impression that this has been on the economic backburner while all the engineering thought went into how to keep the remaining shuttles from disaster. (Interestingly, one of the hopes for better engines for a Mars trip - the next generation plasma engine VASIMR - was just recently attacked by prominent let's-go-to-Mars advocate Robert Zubrin as being "a hoax." Mind you, I've always half suspected Zubrin to be a slightly nutty techno-optimistic himself.)
George W Bush's 2004 plan for a return to the moon as a sort of stepping stone to Mars did seem basically sound, though; except for the stepping stone bit. I assume that setting up a long term post on the Moon probably does help a lot in developing reliable life supports systems that you would need to get to and from Mars; but it likely doesn't do anything much for the development of the new propulsion systems you need to get there and back ASAP.
Anyway, as far as I'm concerned - the Moon has been barely scratched in terms of exploration, and the surface of Mars is not all that more hospitable place to be setting up camp. There are almost certainly caves, gases and water on the Moon that are well worth exploring, and if enough buried water is found, you really do have a basis for a permanent base and, just maybe, genuine lunar industry. You're never going to be able to cover the shipping costs from Mars to Earth, regardless of what you make there.
Forget daydreaming about walking around the Red Planet; not for now anyway. We've seen the photos; it may look like an Earth side desert, but it's not going to feel that way when you're there.
The Moon is handily close and has the potential to actually help the Earth, as well as being a good base for science, at least of the astronomical variety. No one ever suggests this, but as I like to cover all bases, I actually think one of the key roles of the Moon should be as an emergency back up for Earth from planet-wide disasters of any variety. I'd be making it the equivalent of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway; except I'd also be sending DNA from all animals as well, together with encyclopaedic amounts of data on every technological or scientific topic that could be of use or interest in the future.
Anyway, enough of the Opinion Dominion Outline for a Reasonable, Useful and Human Space Program.
Back to the last Shuttle flight: James Lilek wrote well about it, and as he appears to be about my age, I understand the sentiment:
On the other hand, I do share the disappointment that the manned space program has felt rudderless for, oh, about the entire 30 years we've watched the shuttle. American Presidents of both political persuasions never seem to have got it quite right ever since Kennedy: you know, set a goal that is achievable, expands humanity's reach in the universe, and achieve it. How hard can it be? Well, OK, pretty damn hard.
At the risk of repeating myself (but what's a blog for if you can't do that?): I don't see much point in aiming for Mars when you have such big gaps in knowledge as to how it will be achieved. I mean, I don't think anyone yet has a good plan for a spaceship that can ensure the survivability of astronauts from cosmic radiation on the trip, not to mention a foolproof space toilet. In reality, what you probably need is engines that get you there and back as soon as possible, yet you get the distinct impression that this has been on the economic backburner while all the engineering thought went into how to keep the remaining shuttles from disaster. (Interestingly, one of the hopes for better engines for a Mars trip - the next generation plasma engine VASIMR - was just recently attacked by prominent let's-go-to-Mars advocate Robert Zubrin as being "a hoax." Mind you, I've always half suspected Zubrin to be a slightly nutty techno-optimistic himself.)
George W Bush's 2004 plan for a return to the moon as a sort of stepping stone to Mars did seem basically sound, though; except for the stepping stone bit. I assume that setting up a long term post on the Moon probably does help a lot in developing reliable life supports systems that you would need to get to and from Mars; but it likely doesn't do anything much for the development of the new propulsion systems you need to get there and back ASAP.
Anyway, as far as I'm concerned - the Moon has been barely scratched in terms of exploration, and the surface of Mars is not all that more hospitable place to be setting up camp. There are almost certainly caves, gases and water on the Moon that are well worth exploring, and if enough buried water is found, you really do have a basis for a permanent base and, just maybe, genuine lunar industry. You're never going to be able to cover the shipping costs from Mars to Earth, regardless of what you make there.
Forget daydreaming about walking around the Red Planet; not for now anyway. We've seen the photos; it may look like an Earth side desert, but it's not going to feel that way when you're there.
The Moon is handily close and has the potential to actually help the Earth, as well as being a good base for science, at least of the astronomical variety. No one ever suggests this, but as I like to cover all bases, I actually think one of the key roles of the Moon should be as an emergency back up for Earth from planet-wide disasters of any variety. I'd be making it the equivalent of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway; except I'd also be sending DNA from all animals as well, together with encyclopaedic amounts of data on every technological or scientific topic that could be of use or interest in the future.
Anyway, enough of the Opinion Dominion Outline for a Reasonable, Useful and Human Space Program.
Back to the last Shuttle flight: James Lilek wrote well about it, and as he appears to be about my age, I understand the sentiment:
But finally, for a bit of inspirational nostalgia, this video from Nature turned up at Boing Boing, and it is very good:NASA is keen to tell you there’s a still a future for sending Americans into space, but there’s a general cultural anomie that seems content to watch movies about people in space, but indifferent to any plans to put them there. This makes me grind my teeth down to the roots, but I suppose that’s a standard reaction when the rest of your fellow citizenry doesn’t share the precise and exact parameters of your interests and concerns. That’s the problem when you grow up with magazines telling you where we’re going after the moon, with grade-school notebooks that had pictures of the space stations to come, when the push to Mars was regarded as an inevitable next step.
Just got hung up on the “why?” part, it seems. Also the “how” and the “how much” and other details. I can see the reason for taking our time – develop new engines, perfect technology, gather the money and the will. It’s not like anything’s going anywhere. But it’s not like we’re going anywhere if we’re not going anywhere, either – when nations, cultures stop exploring, it’s a bad sign. You’re ceding the future.......
So what’s the attachment, really? Childhood attachment to Star Trek fantasies, geeky fascination with spaceships, adolescent marination in sci-fi visions of rockets and moon bases and PanAm shuttles engaged in a sun-bathed ballet with a space station revolving to the strains of Strauss, phasers and warp six and technobabble and the love of great serene machinery knifing through clouds of glowing dust? Probably. It’s not over, I know – but it’s like watching the last of Columbus’ ships return, and learning they’re cutting up the mast for firewood, and no one’s planning to go back any time soon.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Paging Dr Brady
Of course, climate change sceptics will be all over the article in The Australian today noting a recent study, based on just four tidal gauges, that argues that sea level increase has started to decelerate, at least around Australia/New Zealand. [Note: see the update below for the correction to this.]
The author of the paper, which I had actually heard about before, seems open minded as to the question of long term implications.
The report in The Australian, however, gives earlier prominence to some very climate change sceptic sounding comments by one Dr Howard Brady, of Macquarie University.
Googling Dr Brady reveal little about him, except for the following:
* he is aged 70
* he is a retired scientist who did a lot of work in Antarctica
* he is a former Catholic priest
* he used to be chief of Mosaic Oil
* he gave at least one talk to a Engineer’s Club to deliver a climate change update.
Now, not all of these things are necessarily indicative of climate change scepticism; but most of them are!
Yet one of the links says he is interested in the "non-linearity of climate change", which sounds more like a climate change believer interest.
So, it’s a bit of a mystery. Come out and reveal your position on everything to do with climate, Dr Brady, and tell us how you managed to get quoted in The Australian on this study.
UPDATE: I should have known. Deltoid looks at the actual science at issue here and shows how that article misrepresents it. He also notes that The Australia has not published a correcting letter from Watson's department, and also wonders why Dr Brady is quoted as some sort of authority on this.
In short: another case of pathetic journalism on climate change.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Worthy of a trip to the cinema?
Captain America: The First Avenger - Rotten Tomatoes
I'm not the world's greatest fan of Marvel movies by any means, but I note that Captain America is getting more positive reviews than bad, and the fact that it's directed by Joe Johnston, who did The Rocketeer 20 years ago, makes me more inclined to see it.
The Rocketeer certainly failed commercially to live up to its publicity, but I thought it looked great and found it quite likeable. CA might therefore be worth a shot.
I'm not the world's greatest fan of Marvel movies by any means, but I note that Captain America is getting more positive reviews than bad, and the fact that it's directed by Joe Johnston, who did The Rocketeer 20 years ago, makes me more inclined to see it.
The Rocketeer certainly failed commercially to live up to its publicity, but I thought it looked great and found it quite likeable. CA might therefore be worth a shot.
More about feeling your religion
Further to my somewhat rambling recent post about my wariness of how people sense divine guidance or presence, I see that Mark Vernon at The Guardian has his final piece on Carl Jung, and I thought this section was of interest:
Still, you never know what might come along.
As usual with Jung, I find it both interesting yet somewhat unsatisfactory, and not entirely clear what it means. Vernon finishes on this note:It is perhaps this craving for immediate experience that drives the highly emotional forms of religion growing so fast in the contemporary world, though Jung would have discerned a sentimentality in them that again simplifies humankind's moral ambiguities and spiritual paradoxes. He did not believe that authentic religiosity was expressed in these peak experiences. Rather he advised people to turn towards their fears, much as the mystics welcomed the dark night of the soul. This shadow is experienced as a foe, but it is really a friend because it contains clues as to what the individual lacks, rejects and distrusts.
"What our age thinks of as the 'shadow' and inferior part of the psyche contains more than something merely negative," he writes in The Undiscovered Self, an essay published in 1957. "They are potentialities of the greatest dynamism." That dynamism works by way of compensation. It aims to rebalance what has become lopsided. Hence, if at a conscious level the scientific has eclipsed the theological, the material the valuable, the emotive the spiritual, then the forces that hide in the unconscious will ineluctably make themselves felt once more. It will seem chaotic and quite possibly be destructive. But the passion also contains a prophetic voice calling humanity back to life in all its fullness.
Symbols do die. "Why have the antique gods lost their prestige and their effect upon human souls? It was because the Olympic gods had served their time and a new mystery began: God became man." Which raises the question of whether the Christian dispensation has now served its time too and we await a new mystery. Perhaps we do live on the verge of a new age, of another transformation of humanity.All a bit "Age of Aquarius", I feel. As I think technological transhumanism is a long, long way off, I don't see that as holding out much hope for "transformation of humanity". In a world where people are living more and more in front of a screen (I'm as guilty as anyone,) it's hard to see anything other than life enhancing mystery being slowly bled away.
Still, you never know what might come along.
Japan and renewables
BBC News - Fukushima crisis: Nuclear only part of Japan's problems
The article describes the problems Japan is going to face with electricity supply if they are going to do it with less nuclear power.
Let's face it: a country as prone to earthquakes as Japan should indeed be one of the more cautious ones about where and how they build nuclear power. Again, I suspect that building smaller, self contained reactors, such as those Toshiba and Hyperion have been said to be developing for a few years now, might be the only way to feel more confident about nuclear in that country.
On the other hand, a very geologically quiet country like Australia seems the ideal place for nuclear. But new designs, please.
Meanwhile, in Japan, we'll soon be seeing how well a concerted effort to build up solar power can work:
The article describes the problems Japan is going to face with electricity supply if they are going to do it with less nuclear power.
Let's face it: a country as prone to earthquakes as Japan should indeed be one of the more cautious ones about where and how they build nuclear power. Again, I suspect that building smaller, self contained reactors, such as those Toshiba and Hyperion have been said to be developing for a few years now, might be the only way to feel more confident about nuclear in that country.
On the other hand, a very geologically quiet country like Australia seems the ideal place for nuclear. But new designs, please.
Meanwhile, in Japan, we'll soon be seeing how well a concerted effort to build up solar power can work:
Japan has a relatively small share of renewables, which account for approximately 5% of its total primary energy supply. The current National Energy Plan has set a target of 10% by 2020. At the G8 summit in France this May, Mr Kan announced a plan to increase renewables to more than 20% of total electricity supply by the early 2020s. The government also plans to install 10 million rooftop photo-voltaic units (solar cells) by 2030.
Ice watch
RealClimate: Arctic sea ice discussions
Arctic ice extent is currently tracking below the 2007 summer minimum, although cautious people in the above thread note that July level is not that good at predicting the later minimum.
Still, someone else notes that ice volume is way down, which is arguably more important than extent for the long term.
Of course, a new record low in Arctic ice extent this year could only help the disturbingly gullible public of Australia believe that climate change is real, so here's hoping for it.
Arctic ice extent is currently tracking below the 2007 summer minimum, although cautious people in the above thread note that July level is not that good at predicting the later minimum.
Still, someone else notes that ice volume is way down, which is arguably more important than extent for the long term.
Of course, a new record low in Arctic ice extent this year could only help the disturbingly gullible public of Australia believe that climate change is real, so here's hoping for it.
Quiet companionship, indeed
Silicone love: Guys and dolls - ABC News
Gosh. What inspired the ABC to have a long article about Australian men who are having happy, contented, but rather weird, lives with their silicone life-like girlfriends.
I wonder if some of them have thought to do wills providing for their "quiet" companions. I would like to see a funeral with the silicone girlfriend seated in the front row, dressed in black. Maybe she could be thrown onto the coffin in an uncontrollable outbreak of grief, and someone else has to slap her hard in the face to get her to pull herself together.
Yes, I can imagine a lot of entertainment value in this.
Gosh. What inspired the ABC to have a long article about Australian men who are having happy, contented, but rather weird, lives with their silicone life-like girlfriends.
I wonder if some of them have thought to do wills providing for their "quiet" companions. I would like to see a funeral with the silicone girlfriend seated in the front row, dressed in black. Maybe she could be thrown onto the coffin in an uncontrollable outbreak of grief, and someone else has to slap her hard in the face to get her to pull herself together.
Yes, I can imagine a lot of entertainment value in this.
Hard to disagree
Intelligent discussion all but extinct
Barry Jones complains about the dumbing down of political debate, and it is hard to disagree.
In terms of the reasons why, I find it hard not to blame the internet for the ease with which ideologically motivated attacks on climate science have spread in the echo chamber that most people are happy to reside in.
And if you thought blogs were bad in this regard, I think that the Twitter is making it even worse. I'm sure blogging has taken a downturn in popularity as people have turned to the instant gratification of live, short jokey comments that seem to me to be the sole reason for the existence of that medium. When I have looked at Twitter feeds, I can't really understand the appeal of watching (or participating in) a knotted spaghetti of snippets of conversations from all over the place. Sure, the occasional witticism is there to be seen; but it drowns in a sea mundane connectedness.
There was probably a better informed level of debate when paper pamphlets were the only way to go about it.
The real puzzle is: how to get better detail in debate going again. TV panel shows such as Q&A are certainly not the way to go about it - I have always disliked that format too for its dumbing down of complex issues into one liners.
I am not sure what the answer is. Less electricity with which to use the internet might help though! (Just kidding.)
Barry Jones complains about the dumbing down of political debate, and it is hard to disagree.
In terms of the reasons why, I find it hard not to blame the internet for the ease with which ideologically motivated attacks on climate science have spread in the echo chamber that most people are happy to reside in.
And if you thought blogs were bad in this regard, I think that the Twitter is making it even worse. I'm sure blogging has taken a downturn in popularity as people have turned to the instant gratification of live, short jokey comments that seem to me to be the sole reason for the existence of that medium. When I have looked at Twitter feeds, I can't really understand the appeal of watching (or participating in) a knotted spaghetti of snippets of conversations from all over the place. Sure, the occasional witticism is there to be seen; but it drowns in a sea mundane connectedness.
There was probably a better informed level of debate when paper pamphlets were the only way to go about it.
The real puzzle is: how to get better detail in debate going again. TV panel shows such as Q&A are certainly not the way to go about it - I have always disliked that format too for its dumbing down of complex issues into one liners.
I am not sure what the answer is. Less electricity with which to use the internet might help though! (Just kidding.)
Does this sound like such a good idea?
Transgenic grass skirts regulators : Nature News
GM plants have been in the news lately, what with Greenpeace (literally) cutting down CSIRO work on GM wheat.
While I certainly don't support this Greenpeace action, I've always had reservations about GM technology, for many of the reasons you would no doubt find on a Greenpeace website. (Is it necessary in the first place, will genes inadvertently spread into the wild, it's not a precise science at all, is it putting too much control over farming into profit driven corporations, etc. Yes, I sound a regular Lefty, but I can see the reason people worry about it, and there are real life examples of how the technology has not worked out well.)
But GM proponents have often argued that the work is really important for helping the world feed itself in future. I'm yet to be convinced of that, but in any event one of the big GM controversies has been about GM cotton in India; hardly a crop with a vital importance for humanity's well being. (Well, a world only of polyester clothes would be a disaster of a kind, I suppose.)
Today I see from the link above that GM to do with herbicide resistence is also being done for lawn grass. You see, it'll just let you spray the weeds in your lawn instead of having to bend over and pull them up.
Is this something that is really in humanity's interest to develop? Do we really need to run the risk of transferring resistance to herbicides to other grasses?
What's more, there seems to be less regulatory control of this due to the way it's being made:
GM plants have been in the news lately, what with Greenpeace (literally) cutting down CSIRO work on GM wheat.
While I certainly don't support this Greenpeace action, I've always had reservations about GM technology, for many of the reasons you would no doubt find on a Greenpeace website. (Is it necessary in the first place, will genes inadvertently spread into the wild, it's not a precise science at all, is it putting too much control over farming into profit driven corporations, etc. Yes, I sound a regular Lefty, but I can see the reason people worry about it, and there are real life examples of how the technology has not worked out well.)
But GM proponents have often argued that the work is really important for helping the world feed itself in future. I'm yet to be convinced of that, but in any event one of the big GM controversies has been about GM cotton in India; hardly a crop with a vital importance for humanity's well being. (Well, a world only of polyester clothes would be a disaster of a kind, I suppose.)
Today I see from the link above that GM to do with herbicide resistence is also being done for lawn grass. You see, it'll just let you spray the weeds in your lawn instead of having to bend over and pull them up.
Is this something that is really in humanity's interest to develop? Do we really need to run the risk of transferring resistance to herbicides to other grasses?
What's more, there seems to be less regulatory control of this due to the way it's being made:
Let me just say: this does nothing to reduce my cynicism towards GM work on plants.The grass can evade control because the regulations for GM plants derive from the Federal Plant Pest Act, a decades-old law intended to safeguard against plant pathogens from overseas. Previous types of GM plants are covered because they they were made using plant pathogens. The bacterium Agrobacterium tumefaciens — which can cause tumours on plants — shuttled foreign genes into plant genomes. Developers then used genetic control elements derived from pathogenic plant viruses such as the cauliflower mosaic virus to switch on the genes.
By revealing similar elements in plants' DNA, genome sequencing has liberated developers from having to borrow the viral sequences. And Agrobacterium is not essential either; foreign genes can be fired into plant cells on metal particles shot from a 'gene gun'. Scotts took advantage of both techniques to construct the herbicide-resistant Kentucky bluegrass that put the USDA's regulatory powers to the test.
"The Plant Pest Act was completely inappropriate for regulating biotech crops, but the USDA jury-rigged it," says Bill Freese, science-policy analyst at the Center for Food Safety in Washington DC. "Now we can foresee this loophole getting wider and wider as companies turn more to plants and away from bacteria and other plant-pest organisms." The USDA has not made public any plans to close the loophole and has also indicated that it will not broaden its definition of noxious weeds, a class of plants that falls under its regulatory purview, to facilitate the regulation of GM crops.
Life imitates art
Some journalist has already noted the Murdoch double act before the committee the other day as having a bit of a Montgomery Burns/Smithers vibe about it, but the connection I kept thinking about was this:
To this:
It’s the hair. I find it very off putting.
UPDATE: Thank goodness: I'm not alone in wondering why on earth she has such an in-your-face 'do.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
And this man is the preferred Prime Minister
'Weathervane' Abbott targeted over support for price on carbon | The Australian
From the Tony Abbott "Just Say Anything" tour of Australia (it has the asterisked subtitle "Consistency and logic are for mugs") we get the following story:
UPDATE: Tony Abbott says he forgot to add "as leader" to the end of his claim that he has never supported an ETS. I'm sure he'll allow Julia to explain that she forgot to add "no majority Labor government I lead will have a carbon tax".
But Tony Abbott's career of just making it up as he goes along continues with this:
From the Tony Abbott "Just Say Anything" tour of Australia (it has the asterisked subtitle "Consistency and logic are for mugs") we get the following story:
The Opposition Leader made the claim on Gippsland's Star FM yesterday, saying: “I've never been in favour of a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme.”
But in October 2009 Mr Abbott, under then-opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull, publicly backed an emissions trading scheme in an interview on the ABC's Lateline program.
“We don't want to play games with the planet. So we are taking this issue seriously and we would like to see an ETS,” he said at the time.
He made a similar comment on radio 2UE in November that year. “You can't have a climate change policy without supporting this ETS at this time,” he said.
Earlier this week, Mr Abbott criticised a proposed 5 per cent carbon emissions cut as “crazy”, even though the Coalition supports the target.
UPDATE: Tony Abbott says he forgot to add "as leader" to the end of his claim that he has never supported an ETS. I'm sure he'll allow Julia to explain that she forgot to add "no majority Labor government I lead will have a carbon tax".
But Tony Abbott's career of just making it up as he goes along continues with this:
TONY Abbott now says he does not want any of Victoria's brown-coal-fired power stations to close or switch to cleaner fuels, despite the Coalition having repeatedly said it expects to pay for one of the generators to shut and convert to gas under its $10.5 billion Direct Action policy.
''I know that burning brown coal is a high emissions form of energy production, but I think the smart way forward is not to fail to use brown coal. It's not to close down these power stations, it's to try to ensure that we use technology better to reduce the emissions,'' Mr Abbott said yesterday as he prepared to visit the Hazelwood brown coal plant....
But as recently as Tuesday, Coalition Finance spokesman Andrew Robb had claimed Labor's proposal to pay to close a brown coal generator had been stolen from the Coalition.
''Despite all the fevered claims that Direct Action won't work, the single biggest abatement measure in the Government's scheme happens to be a Direct Action proposal - namely, the closure of Hazelwood power station.''
And after last year's election, the Coalition climate spokesman Greg Hunt said: ''One of the ironies of the election is that if the Coalition had formed government, we would be negotiating with the owners of Hazelwood and Yallourn power stations about converting either or both from brown coal to gas.''
But yesterday Mr Abbott said: ''There will be no act of policy from the next Coalition government or from any Coalition government that I'm associated with that artificially foreshortens the life of these power stations.''
A taxing success?
Calls for new tax on alcohol after success of alcopop tax stopping teen drinking | News.com.au
I haven't read the study reported here, and it is written by bodies who want to push a strong public health barrow, but still:
I haven't read the study reported here, and it is written by bodies who want to push a strong public health barrow, but still:
Research by the groups found that the alcopops tax, introduced in 2008, pushed the sale of the popular drinks down by more than 30 per cent in a year.
While sales of other spirits rose in the same period, the increase accounted for less than half the fall in alcopop sales.
The groups also pointed to the 2008 alcohol and drug survey of teenagers which showed that while the tax had not changed their preference for alcopops, the number of teen drinkers fell 27 per cent in three years.
The BBC sums it up
BBC News - Murdochs hearing: A day of high drama and farce:
Murdoch Sr had got off to a shaky start. We knew he was 80, but he seemed more frail - and certainly more human - than the figure of legend.
Not so much a titan before whom all must tremble, as an elderly man on a day trip to the coast, mistakenly arrested for shoplifting.Of course, Murdoch employed columnists are having a hard time seeing it this way. Can Andrew Bolt really say this with a straight face?:
The incident [the pie in the face] was a reminder to the committee that bad things can happen - like lax security - to the most august of institutions.A dignified refusal to comment might have been wiser, Andrew.
The Murdochs’ testimony was reassuringly impressive, after so many stumbles in dealing with this scandal...
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Sort of like a spoon full of sugar
Molasses help lose weight (Science Alert)
Molasses usually end up as a waste-product of sugar refining. However, they are rich in polyphenols, says Dr Weisinger, chemicals found in plants known for their antioxidant properties....
Researchers supplemented the high-fat diet of a group of laboratory mice with molasses for 12 weeks. They found that these mice had lower body weight, reduced body fat and decreased blood levels of leptin – a hormone involved in energy regulation, appetite and metabolism – than the control group.
Further analyses, says Dr Weisinger, revealed that molasses supplements led to increased energy excretion, i.e, more calories were lost in faeces. They also found increased gene expression for several liver and fat cell biomarkers of energy metabolism....
Clinical trials are scheduled to begin next year to evaluate the molasses extract for weight control in humans.
Nothing personal at all
Media Watch: Personal or policy? You be the judge (18/07/2011)
Media Watch last night was very good at pointing out the lengths to which right wing talk back radio in Australia has gone to make criticism of Julia Gillard (and anyone supporting carbon pricing) personal, extreme and offensive. Look at these extracts from callers who Chris Smith and Alan Jones have let go to air:
Speaking of poor taste, that's also how I found yesterday's post at Catallaxy by Sinclair Davidson headed "Roadkill", which featured a photo of the PM with a startled look, and talked about the bad, bad polls she is receiving at the moment.
That heading and attempt at humour really sounds to me like something you'd hear on a late night host on the Macquarie Network, rather than from a Professor of Economics.
Media Watch last night was very good at pointing out the lengths to which right wing talk back radio in Australia has gone to make criticism of Julia Gillard (and anyone supporting carbon pricing) personal, extreme and offensive. Look at these extracts from callers who Chris Smith and Alan Jones have let go to air:
'Bonita': Look I can say this, but you can't: she's a menopausal monster, and she needs to resign.
Chris Smith: Ok. Good on you, Bonita. Thank you.
'Tony': The Australian taxpayer even pays for the toilet paper she uses.The extracts that follow then go on to show how ridiculous is Jones' claim that he never gets "personal". He has used the "chaff bag" line more than once:
Does she go down to the chemist to buy her tampons? Or is the Australian taxpayer paying for those as well? ...
In my opinion Julia Gillard is a piece of crap ...
Alan Jones: Ok, well you made a lot of valid points there. We've just got to avoid in our criticism the personal. We stick to the policy; we never deal with the personal.
Alan Jones: Put her in the same chaff bag as Julia Gillard and throw them both out to sea.I saw on Andrew Bolt's TV show on Sunday a passing comment by him that he doesn't approve of Alan Bond's personal attacks. Might be nice if he would actually do a post on his own blog about this; but then, that would involve acknowledging his own role in creating a hysterical atmosphere about the carbon tax debate in the country at the moment.
Speaking of poor taste, that's also how I found yesterday's post at Catallaxy by Sinclair Davidson headed "Roadkill", which featured a photo of the PM with a startled look, and talked about the bad, bad polls she is receiving at the moment.
That heading and attempt at humour really sounds to me like something you'd hear on a late night host on the Macquarie Network, rather than from a Professor of Economics.
Sometimes I get noticed
Recently, I have posted a couple of times about Texas State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, including about his Counterpoint interview.
Even allowing for the fact that he almost certainly only found my comments via Deltoid, it's pleasing to see that my observations are sometimes noted on the other side of the world.
It's worthwhile reading my comment and Dr John's response on the thread, too.
Even allowing for the fact that he almost certainly only found my comments via Deltoid, it's pleasing to see that my observations are sometimes noted on the other side of the world.
It's worthwhile reading my comment and Dr John's response on the thread, too.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Unusual comparison of the week
Cold-blooded cunning | The Economist
This article suggests that no one has ever spent much time testing the intelligence of reptiles. Unfortunately, they are smarter than we knew:
This article suggests that no one has ever spent much time testing the intelligence of reptiles. Unfortunately, they are smarter than we knew:
In a paper published in Biology Letters Dr Leal and Dr Powell suggest that lizards are at least as intelligent as tits, a group of birds that has been well examined in this respect.Ah well: I suppose that as I never feared being outsmarted by a tit, I shouldn't fear reptiles doing it either.
Cultural nuttiness
Last week's article in Slate "A Bad Case of the Brain Fags" by Jesse Bering, was a pretty interesting short survey of culture specific mental illnesses.
The first one he mentions, though, "old hag syndrome" he indicates as being specific to Newfoundland. I thought that it was common throughout the world as part of sleep paralysis that people could wake up with the sensation of being pressed down on the bed by a ghost or phantom figure. Maybe it is only in Newfoundland that folklore says it is specifically an ugly, witch like woman doing it?
I did recently see the famous physicist/author Paul Davies on Lawrence Leung's Unbelievable talking about he suffered from waking sleep paralysis as a child or teenager, and used to interpret the pressure on his chest as feeling like a cat walking on him. Unhelpfully, he didn't explain if there was actually a cat in the house at the time.
(I can also mention, as an aside, that while sleeping in an unusual location once as teenager, I also woke up with the feeling of pressure on my chest, which really did turn out to be a cat.)
Anyway, Bering also mentions koro (the fear of the penis disappearing into the body), and although I knew about that already from Fortean Times magazine, he does add some interesting details.
As I have usually avoided gyms, I didn't really know this about body builders:
The first one he mentions, though, "old hag syndrome" he indicates as being specific to Newfoundland. I thought that it was common throughout the world as part of sleep paralysis that people could wake up with the sensation of being pressed down on the bed by a ghost or phantom figure. Maybe it is only in Newfoundland that folklore says it is specifically an ugly, witch like woman doing it?
I did recently see the famous physicist/author Paul Davies on Lawrence Leung's Unbelievable talking about he suffered from waking sleep paralysis as a child or teenager, and used to interpret the pressure on his chest as feeling like a cat walking on him. Unhelpfully, he didn't explain if there was actually a cat in the house at the time.
(I can also mention, as an aside, that while sleeping in an unusual location once as teenager, I also woke up with the feeling of pressure on my chest, which really did turn out to be a cat.)
Anyway, Bering also mentions koro (the fear of the penis disappearing into the body), and although I knew about that already from Fortean Times magazine, he does add some interesting details.
As I have usually avoided gyms, I didn't really know this about body builders:
One that's not in the manual but could be, argue psychiatrists Gen Kanayama and Harrison Pope in a short paper published earlier this year in the Harvard Review of Psychiatry, is "muscle dysmorphia." The condition is limited to Western males, who suffer the delusion that they are insufficiently ripped. "As a result," write the authors, "they may lift weights compulsively in the gym, often gain large amounts of muscle mass, yet still perceive themselves as too small." Within body-building circles, in fact, muscle dysmorphia has long been recognized as a sort of reverse anorexia nervosa. But it's almost entirely unheard of among Asian men. Unlike hypermasculine Western heroes such as Hercules, Thor, and the chiseled Arnold of yesteryear, the Japanese and Chinese have tended to prefer their heroes fully clothed, mentally acute, and lithe, argue Kanayama and Pope. In fact, they say anabolic steroid use is virtually nonexistent in Asian countries, even though the drugs are considerably easier to obtain, being available without a prescription at most neighborhood drugstores.I'm in no danger of needing treatment for this condition.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)