Not encouraging

Climate 'Tipping Points' May Arrive Without Warning, Says Top Forecaster

"Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them," said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. "Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning -- systems can 'tip' precipitously.

"This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible."....

Among the tipping points Holdren listed were: the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer, leading to drastic changes in ocean circulation and climate patterns across the whole Northern Hemisphere; acceleration of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, driving rates of sea-level increase to 6 feet or more per century; and ocean acidification from carbon dioxide absorption, causing massive disruption in ocean food webs.

Coming soon

What the LHC could find at half-power - New Scientist

There's no mention in this short note as to whether half power is enough for mini black holes. The answer will be somewhere on the internet.

Missing Annabel

I had been wondering why Annabel Crabb, my favourite political commentator of late, had gone to the ABC then promptly disappeared. The Australian has the answer, when Caroline Overington wrote about Insiders:

It will be a different kind of show this year, since the sharpest wit, Annabel Crabb, last week gave birth to a son, Elliott James, who is now undergoing 24-hour worship with his happy mum at home.

Betty still busy

This was one of the superbowl ads, and features Betty White, who I've always found funny:



She's 88 years old (!) and as sharp as a tack. You have to admire her.

Technical problem in the sky

Burj Khalifa observation deck incident is minor case, says official

The mystery reason as to why the Burj Khalifa 124th floor observation deck was suddenly closed is given some more background:

Michael Timms, a 31-year-old telecommunications engineer from the US, said: "I was walking around the observation deck when I heard this really loud noise and what looked like smoke or dust coming out from one of the elevator doors. There were at least 60 people on the deck at the time. Employees and security staff were telling people that everything was ok. But once it became clear we were not being allowed back down, some people got really angry while others started crying."

Timms added: "Civil Defence, paramedics and the police all arrived on the scene. One of the elevators had not reached all the way to the 124th floor and I saw some people climbing a ladder from the elevator up on to the observation deck." Timms said they were given an offer to return for free.

The elevators seem a bit problematic:

Fourteen people were also trapped in one of the Burj Khalifa's elevators for over an hour last month.

He should've travelled via robot camel

gulfnews : Dubai's Arabic-speaking robot takes a flight to Riyadh

A bit of silly stuff here about a robot taking a plane trip. I hope security gave him a thorough body cavity search first:

A first for Emirates, Ibn Sina, one of the world's most advanced robots, travelled as a First Class passenger on the flight accompanied by Dr Nikolaos Mavridis, Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the UAE University College of Information Technology in Al Ain where the machine was developed, along with two of his assistants.

Able to verbally interact with people, Ibn Sina stunned fellow passengers as he was checked in at Emirates' dedicated First Class check-in counter and relaxed in Emirates' First Class lounge prior to boarding his flight.

More justification for my ETS cynicism

David Prosser: Carbon prices are going the wrong way - The Independent

Right now, the carbon price is heading in the wrong direction. The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee said yesterday that £88 per tonne was the lowest price necessary for investment in green technologies to become economic. In the EU scheme, the price for the right to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide is currently £13, having fallen back from closer to £20 since the middle of last year.

There have been two reasons for this decline. First, the free emissions allowances for the scheme were set prior to the recession: in a slowdown, emissions fall, so there has been less demand for additional allowances than was anticipated. And second, with the failure in Copenhagen to secure an international agreement on emission reductions, one crutch for the carbon price – that fewer free allowances might soon be available – was kicked away.

One of the few positive effects of the global recession has been lower-than-expected emissions. But the gain from that benefit will be more than wiped out by higher future emissions if the result is that the low carbon price makes it impossible for private-sector organisations to justify committing themselves to investing the huge sums necessary to build renewable energy plants with scale, or nuclear facilities.

When will the simpler idea of fixing a price on carbon via a tax so as to give investment greater certainty going to start getting more political support?

Growth area

South Brisbane And West End Population To Increase Three-fold

Over the last year I've spent quite a lot of time at West End and South Brisbane on Saturday afternoons while the kids attend a local class.

West End to me still has too much of the seedy feel that New Farm used to have (until the large number of boarding houses started closing down.) It seems pretty rare to walk down the main shopping street without seeing some drunk (or possibly drug addled or otherwise mentally disturbed) person on a bus bench or elsewhere. There are a large number of the artistically inclined living in the area, but I am not sure that modern artists necessarily make the best neighbours. The little enclave on the main street that is left as a aboriginal meeting place just serves to remind people of the seemingly listless and alcohol centred life of a large number of the urban aboriginal residents.

Still, I can see that it could have a bright future with more and more redevelopment of what is currently industrial land.

Must praise Malcolm

ABC The Drum Unleashed - Turnbull: why I will vote for Rudd's CPRS

I can't let Malcolm Turnbull's speech go without comment.

Even though I have always been cynical about emissions trading schemes, and doubt that they will work as well as economists like to think they could, Malcolm Turbull's speech yesterday was the best presented and most logically argued justification for an ETS for Australia that I have ever heard.

But of course, logic and reason (and principled stands on issues) don't count for much in politics. You have to take into account "the vibe", and with lots of TV images of lots of snow in America and Europe, and a lot of poorly understood reports on "Climategate", public opinion is swinging away from taking any serious action on CO2 emissions for the moment. There is still a majority supporting action, but the skeptics/disbelievers/deniers (there is no good term for them collectively) are feeling very buoyed at the moment.

The public is fickle on this topic, which is an inherently hard one to explain. (By that I mean not only emissions trading schemes, but climate change science itself is not "intuitive".) That the Right is increasingly identified itself with those who disbelieve a consensus view of science is a major tragedy.

To revive political will on the subject, we actually have to hope that 2010 is demonstrably a hot year globally, and the early indications are that this may turn out to be true.

As for convincing people that ocean acidification is a major issue: I don't know how you do that when it'll be a while yet before clear evidence of its effects on the ocean ecosystem can be irrefutable. It is clear that ocean pH is lowering, but will it take proof of the population of some sea creature falling as a result to overcome ignorance based skepticism of the topic? But then again, how did scientists manage to convince governments that the ozone hole depletion was a major issue before they could show ecological effects actually happening? Maybe that example of science successfully convincing the public of a need for action is reason to not be completely pessimistic.

An identity issue, continued

Yesterday while looking for something else, I found this post from 2007 which I had half forgotten about. (As with many of my half remembered stuff, I am often surprised how good some of my old posts are. Sorry, I may well suffer from too much self-regard!) It was on the topic of teenagers and the current Western cultural ideas about sexual orientation/identity. The issue was revisited in this post last year.

The short version is that the modern idea of the importance of identifying sexual orientation and "being true" to it may in fact be unhelpful to teenagers with uncertain or malleable sexual feelings by placing them under greater pressure to try to identity (and acknowledge) a sexual category at ever younger ages.

Anyway, today I find this item, which is very relevant to the topic:

Mental health professionals have long-known that gay, lesbian and bisexual (GLB) teens face significantly elevated risks of mental health problems, including suicidal thoughts and suicidal attempts. However, a group of McGill University researchers in Montreal has now come to the conclusion that self-identity is the crucial risk-factor, rather than actual sexual behaviours. Their results were published in February in the Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry.

The researchers administered a detailed, anonymous questionnaire to nearly 1,900 students in 14 Montreal-area high schools, and found that those teens who self-identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual, or who were unsure of their sexual identity, were indeed at higher risk for suicidal ideation and attempts. However, teens who had same-sex attractions or sexual experiences – but thought of themselves as heterosexual – were at no greater risk than the population at large. Perhaps surprisingly, but consistent with previous studies, the majority of teens with same-sex sexual attraction or experience considered themselves to be heterosexual....

"It's important to realize that a large proportion of people who have sex with or are attracted to people of the same sex do not identify themselves as gay, lesbian or bisexual. They consider themselves heterosexual." added co-author Dr. Richard Montoro of the McGill University Health Centre (MUHC). "Those students were not at all at risk of worse mental health outcomes."

"The main message is that it's the interface between individuals and society that causes students who identify as gay, lesbian, or bisexual the most distress," said study first author Yue Zhao, a McGill University graduate student working with Dr. Thombs.. "Sexual orientation has three different components. The first is identity, which is dependent on the society in which one lives; the second is attraction or fantasy; and the third is behaviour. Previous studies have not addressed which of those components may explain why GLB youth are at risk."

Well, there might be more than one way of looking at this, but I think it's not unreasonable for me to say it supports my position that any sex education (or school based gay support groups as are increasingly popular in America) which tend to encourage teenagers to self identify as gay at too young an age is not a good idea. It may do more harm than good.

I have no issue with schools taking strong action on bullying of anyone, whether its on the basis of perceived sexual orientation or not. But bullying is wrong because it is wrong, and you don't need to further emphasise the importance of sexual self identity to respond to it.

Must be time for another post about Japanese toilets

Caring about toilet noise: from feudal-era urn to 21st century gadget

This article suggests that Japanese sensitivity about the sounds people make when using a toilet has a long history. You've probably heard before:

most ladies’ rooms in the country’s department stores and office buildings are equipped with a device commonly known as ‘‘Otohime’’—originally the brand name of a product developed by Toto Ltd—which emits the simulated sound of a toilet flushing.

The rest of the article contains some phrases that you are unlikely to hear again. Ever. I'll put them in bold:

Shigenori Yamaji, an expert on toilet culture and researcher at Osaka University of Tourism’s Institute of Tourism Studies, agreed that being embarrassed by the thought of other people hearing such sounds in the lavatory seems peculiar to Japan.

According to Yamaji, this particular sensibility can be traced back to at least the 19th century, a time of feudalism in Japan, as the residence of a wealthy family in Yakage that also served as a designated inn for dignitaries was equipped with an urn traditionally called ‘‘Otokeshi-no Tsubo’’ (Urn for Covering the Sound).

The urn, now kept in storage at Yakage Folk Museum and expected to be put on display there in the near future, has a water outlet in the shape of a dragon. A curator said the urn was originally placed on a platform near the restroom, which was exclusively for the high-ranking guests of the inn and not for family members or servants.

When a guest wanted to use the room, it is thought that his attendant would be standing by to lift the plug on the urn and let the water out from the dragon’s mouth to cover the sound of the nobleman urinating, Yamaji said...

But some are critical of the custom. ‘‘I think the Japanese sometimes read too much between the lines,’’ said a housewife in her 30s in Chiba Prefecture.

‘‘My own excretory sounds never make me embarrassed. It’s much more embarrassing to put on makeup on the train,’’ said a dance instructor in her 50s in the same prefecture.

Amusing snark

“Edge of Darkness” and “The Red Shoes,” review : The New Yorker

Anthony Lane writes in his review of the new Mel Gibson movie "Edge of Darkness":

Mel Gibson, who looks and sounds not a day over sixty-five*, plays a policeman named Thomas Craven. ...

He wears a loose-fitting suit that he might have picked up at a morgue. “I’m the guy with nothing to lose who doesn’t give a shit,” he says. You’re telling me.

* He has, even I am surprised to learn, only just turned 54. Must be all that church going. Or the drinking and womanising. One or the other.

Something you didn't know about the LHC

Backreaction: The LHC Proton Source

A brief but surprising bit of information about the LHC at this post.

Living up to its reputation

BBC News - In Paris, the customer is not always right

Here's a somewhat amusing story of the famously surly service in Paris. (I visited once for a few days in the 1980's, and yes, the service for a foreigner barely able to cope with ordering a steak was pretty crook. But in a way, my travelling companion and I found it kind of amusing that it lived up to its reputation.)

There is a reason offered for this attitude, but I am not really convinced:

The revolution of 1789 has burned the notion of equality deep into the French psyche and a proud Parisian finds it abhorrently degrading to act subserviently...

In America, your waiter comes to your restaurant table to tell you his name is Joe. Here, your waiter expects to be addressed formally as Monsieur, in exactly the same way he will address you.

It is made clear from the start that no-one has the upper hand. The strict code of manners in Paris is a deliberate class-leveller.

Actually, I thought people sometimes complain that service in America was kind of surly in its own way now, with the reliance on tips to make any kind of decent living meaning that waiters will expect a decent tip regardless of the level of service offered.

And of course, I reckon the best service in the world comes from Japan. But commit a crime, and all bets are off. (See previous post.)

Punishment in Japan

Record 85% favor death penalty | The Japan Times Online

Wow. Amnesty International presumably has its work cut out for it in Japan.

Mind you, according to reports in the mid 1990's, prisoner treatment in Japan was so bad they might not thing execution is so bad. I wonder if things have improved since then?

Serious TV

Four Corners - 08/02/2010: A Good Death

When I first saw the topic for tonight's Four Corners (four terminally ill people let the program follow them in their last months) I thought that it was likely to be yet another bunch of pro-euthanasia people wanting publicity.

But from the program description, it's all about a palliative care centre in Sydney (and a Catholic one at that), so it's not what I expected.

A couple of years ago I mentioned that the Health Report on Radio National had a surprisingly good segment on palliative care. It's good to see occasional coverage of alternatives to euthanasia on "our" ABC.

And just before Four Corners, I see that Australian Story is about Red Symons and a fight with brain cancer that one of his sons had to go through when he was only 4. (He survived, but the family kept it quiet all these years.) Should be worth watching.

Christmas break 2009

I haven't got around to posting about the short Christmas holiday to Ballina, Northern New South Wales.

In 2008, the family made a brief incursion into Byron Bay (warning - best not attempted in peak holiday season), which at that time was the furthest south I had ever been along the northern NSW coast. (As I noted recently, the ocean does get cold very fast one you cross the border.)

Late last year, we started looking for somewhere to stay in the Christmas - New Year week, and found the Ramada Hotel & Suites at Ballina. It's a very new place, was pretty good value and had vacancies. I can recommend it.

The one bedroom suites are very nice, with a kitchenette, two big LCD TVs and a pretty large balcony. If you are on the side facing the Richmond River, you get pretty nice views too:


There's a good Indian restaurant downstairs, and not a bad Italian one as well. The main street of town is a block away. The beaches are only a short drive away, although you could walk a bit and just swim in the river if you wanted to. Here's a view of the town from the local lookout:


The coastal drive from Ballina up to Lennox Head is particularly nice. Here's a north looking photo just before Lennox Head, with Byron Bay in the distance:


The best thing about Lennox Head is Lake Ainsworth, a freshwater tea tree stained lake just across from the surf beach, which has the very nice feature of being exquisitely warm when the ocean is cold:


One other tourist place just outside of Ballina is the tea tree plantation of Thursday Plantation, which makes all those tea tree oil products. It features a free, though mosquito infested, maze which contains odd bits of artwork, such as these which seem to have gone missing from a scary sequence in a Harry Potter film:


Yes, despite some less than ideal weather for much of the time, we were suitably impressed by Ballina and environs, and decided we would particularly like to visit Lennox Head again. But let's end with the traditional sunset shot (I thought the dark rays were a little odd):



(As always, you can click on the photos to enlarge.)

A plainer form of CO2 cap

Lexington: A refreshing dose of honesty | The Economist

The Economist seems pretty impressed with the relative simplicity of this alternative proposal in American to "cap and trade":

Enter Maria Cantwell, the junior senator from Washington state. She is pushing a simpler, more voter-friendly version of cap-and-trade, called “cap-and-dividend”. Under her bill, the government would impose a ceiling on carbon emissions each year. Producers and importers of fossil fuels will have to buy permits. The permits would be auctioned, raising vast sums of money. Most of that money would be divided evenly among all Americans. The bill would raise energy prices, of course, and therefore the price of everything that requires energy to make or distribute. But a family of four would receive perhaps $1000 a year, which would more than make up for it, reckons Ms Cantwell. Cap-and-dividend would set a price on carbon, thus giving Americans a powerful incentive to burn less dirty fuel. It would also raise the rewards for investing in clean energy. And it would leave all but the richest 20% of Americans—who use the most energy—materially better off, she says.

Ms Cantwell’s bill is refreshingly simple. At a mere 40 pages, it is one-thirty-sixth as long as the monstrous House bill (known as “Waxman-Markey”, after its sponsors), which would regulate everything from televisions to “bottle-type water dispensers” and is completely incomprehensible to a layman. Instead of auctioning permits to emit, Waxman-Markey gives 85% of them away, at least at first. This is staggeringly inefficient: permits would go to those with political clout rather than those who value them most. No one is proud of this—Mr Obama wanted a 100% auction—but House Democrats decided that the only way to pass the bill was to hand out billions of dollars of goodies to groups that might otherwise oppose it. (There was plenty of pork left over for its supporters, too.)

Certainly, it would seem that Rudd' CPRS has much the same deficiencies as the Waxman-Markey proposal.

I wonder if anyone has modelled this simpler suggestion for Australia?

Cheers

Whisky recovered after 100 years on ice

Five crates of whisky and brandy belonging to polar explorer Ernest Shackleton have been recovered after being buried for more than 100 years under the Antarctic ice, explorers said on yesterday.

The spirits were excavated from beneath Shackleton's Antarctic hut which was built in 1908.

It's not confirmed yet that there are intact bottles inside the crate, but if there is, what should they do with it? I get the feeling that auctioning some bottles for some charity would be just as good a use as keeping it in a museum.

How to annoy the Left

The New Abstinence-Education Study Is Good News. So Why Are Liberals Freaking Out?

A good post here about the Left's seeming annoyance that any type of abstinence based sex education could possibly work.

The type of programme the subject of this study is described as follows:

...the study authors looked at African-American middle-school students in the Northeast who enrolled in an abstinence-only program (no instruction on contraceptives) and were taught, sans moral or religious arguments, that they should delay sex until they were ready. Marriage was notably left out of it.

The students in this program were more likely to delay sex in the two years after the program, as opposed to those who enrolled in no program or those who were instructed in safe sex.

As the post further notes:

The generally negative reaction from the left really gets at how incredibly polarized the sex-education debate has become, to the point where supporters of comprehensive sex education can barely mumble a word of praise for a successful program.