Stephen's problem

Stephen Fry reveals details of recent attempted suicide | Culture | The Guardian

Apparently, he had another suicide attempt last year, despite being on medication for bipolar and being a spokesperson of sorts for mental health.

Like most people, I suppose, I find Fry quite likeable, but suspect his reputation for high intelligence and all round brilliance is probably rather over-rated .   I just wish he would slow down.  He seems the perfect candidate for something like intense meditation for its calming effect.

The remarkable ageing Japan

Japan's oldest community - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I saw this story on Lateline last night and thought it was a poignant illustration of what is happening in the Japanese countryside.

The most remarkable figures from the story are these:

There are more than 7.5 million empty houses and apartments in Japan. That's about 10 per cent of all residences in the country. And here, in this district of Nanmoku, more than two-thirds of homes have been abandoned....

While there are 10 babies in this village, there are also 10 people over the age of 100. 106-year-old Masu Koido is the oldest of the lot.

I didn't quite get why at least one house of a deceased resident, who the neighbours come over to open up every now and then, still seemed to be full of contents and family memorabilia.

If I had enough money, a holiday home in some nice corner of the Japanese countryside would be very pleasant.  A spare one in France is needed too.

Would be interesting if I could read it

Quantum physics: The quantum atom 

This special issue of Nature explores the origin and legacy of Bohr's quantum atom, a model that has resonated ever since. In 1911, Bohr began a postdoctoral year in England that planted the seeds of his thinking. In a Comment on page 27, historian John Heilbron relates how letters from Bohr to his brother Harald and to his fiancée, Margrethe Nørlund, published this year, chart the dauntless physicist's work with J. J. Thomson and Ernest Rutherford, and his study of the papers of John William Nicholson, which presaged his breakthrough.

All stuck behind the ridiculously expensive Nature paywall, unfortunately.   Seriously, who is going to pay £12 for access to an article like that?  

Safety advice

Rescuing drowning children: How to know when someone is in trouble in the water. - Slate Magazine

This is good to know.  It explains how drowning doesn't look like what most people expect.

It certainly seems remarkable how silent it is, given the number of toddlers who drown in backyard pools each year with their parents hearing nothing.  

Looking on the bright side (except for Julia)

The Aussie dollar is doing its bit 

Stephen Koukoulas does his bit to counter the "it's a looming catastrophe" meme that seems to be dominating commentary on the Australian economy at the moment.

The depreciation of the Australian dollar is just the tonic the Australian economy needs.
It will give a welcome income and competitive lift to exporters and will see local firms and industries that are competing with importers get a boost to their activity as the price of imports increase.

For the exporters that maintained solid activity when the dollar was trading around $US1.05, the recent move below $US0.97 will translate directly to higher profits, additional output and jobs. So too for local firms competing with imports.

This sets the scene for a lift in aggregate economic conditions into 2014 and a rebalancing of economic activity a little away from mining and related sectors towards domestic activity.

It is an outlook where the unbroken run of annual GDP growth will almost certainly extend to a 22nd, 23rd and 24th year. This is a truly fantastic performance in the Australian economy.

It is also likely to extend the time in which the unemployment rate has remained below 6 per cent into an 11th, 12th and 13th year.

And aside from the temporary jump in inflation in 2008 which was inspired by the reckless Howard government spending spree, inflation has been within the target range for two decades.

These stunning economic fundamentals have occurred with the Australian dollar being as high as $US1.10 and as low as $US0.4775. Official interest rates have been as high as 7.5 per cent and as low as 2.75 per cent. The budget has registered a deficit as high as 4.3 per cent of GDP and a surplus as large as 2.0 per cent of GDP.

All of which shows that the floating of the Australian dollar, successful inflation targeting from the RBA and a pragmatic approach to fiscal policy have yielded long run economic benefits.

Of course, the terrible thing for Labor is that some commentators believe the Aussie dollar will settle over the next 6 months at about .90US, which will clearly be very advantageous for the economy, and will have nothing to do with a Coalition win in September, but the Coalition will reap the political benefit of it. 

Next for State of Origin?

In what (for me) is an unusual concession to traditional Australian masculinity, I say again that Rugby League as played at its peak in a State of Origin match constitutes the most impressive and watchable sporting event in Australia.

I see in tonight's game that some cameras seem to be being zipped around mounted on Segways.

The next level of camera innovation might be this, one suspects (at least if the 60 seconds it takes for the computer to stitch the image together can be reduced):

 

Good old NHK.

The Catholic Multiverse

The Large Hadron Collider, the Multiverse, and Me (and my friends) - First Thoughts

You don't often see particle physics discussed at the religious blog First Things, but I see that Stephen Barr (a physicist who is a Catholic and writes about religion and science) is doing a bit of bragging that he and some colleagues had suggested quite a while ago (1997) that a multiverse could perhaps account for the odd weight of the Higgs particle.

Barr links to an article that recently appeared at Scientific American about this, which details the argument that comes down to this:

The spectacular discovery of the Higgs boson in July 2012 confirmed a nearly 50-year-old theory of how elementary particles acquire mass, which enables them to form big structures such as galaxies and humans. “The fact that it was seen more or less where we expected to find it is a triumph for experiment, it’s a triumph for theory, and it’s an indication that physics works,” Arkani-Hamed told the crowd.

However, in order for the Higgs boson to make sense with the mass (or equivalent energy) it was determined to have, the LHC needed to find a swarm of other particles, too. None turned up.

With the discovery of only one particle, the LHC experiments deepened a profound problem in physics that had been brewing for decades. Modern equations seem to capture reality with breathtaking accuracy, correctly predicting the values of many constants of nature and the existence of particles like the Higgs. Yet a few constants — including the mass of the Higgs boson — are exponentially different from what these trusted laws indicate they should be, in ways that would rule out any chance of life, unless the universe is shaped by inexplicable fine-tunings and cancellations.

Peter Woit, at Not Even Wrong, who hates the multiverse being invoked as a solution, has also seen the article and is dismissive of it.

I am curious as to how theology would really cope with a multiverse if it was shown to definitely exist. 

Just last night, I was skimming through The Pearly Gates of Cyberspace, the book by Margaret Wertheim that got a lot of attention when it came out in 1999.  (Interestingly, some of it about how the internet could develop - talking about the potential for cyberworlds like Second Life, for example - already reads as very dated.   Spending time as an avatar turned out not to be all that it was cracked up to be.)

Anyhow, the key theme of the book is that cyberspace essentially now serves as the "space" in which heaven and immortality can reside.  She starts off talking about the medieval (or earlier) understanding of the universe as involving a finite, onion like arrangement of spheres, with the heavenly world existing beyond the outer shell.  (I think it is sometimes said that stars were taken to be pinpricks in the outer shell, letting in the eternal light of heaven.)

Well, with a multiverse, you may have an entirely new way to locate something that could pass for heaven.  Or so it seems to me.  The only problem being that there is no obvious way to access it.  Unless you can information leakage from one universe to the next, I suppose.

Don Page is the only other religious scientist I can recall who talks about such things.  I referred to his papers on the multiverse back in 2008.   Perhaps I should re-read him, but I still think there is more room for interesting speculation on the topic.

Update:  Well, that's a co-incidence.  Margaret Wertheim has an interesting article just published in which she covers the big questions of physics, and explains the likes Lee Smolin's book which I just mentioned a couple of posts back.   Here's her take on string theory's version of the multiverse:

The idea of a quasi-infinite, ever-proliferating array of universes has been given further credence as a result of being taken up by string theorists, who argue that every mathematically possible version of the string theory equations corresponds to an actually existing universe, and estimate that there are 10 to the power of 500 different possibilities. To put this in perspective: physicists believe that in our universe there are approximately 10 to the power of 80 subatomic particles. In string cosmology, the totality of existing universes exceeds the number of particles in our universe by more than 400 orders of magnitude....

What is so epistemologically daring here is that the equations are taken to be the fundamental reality. The fact that the mathematics allows for gazillions of variations is seen to be evidence for gazillions of actual worlds.

This kind of reification of equations is precisely what strikes some humanities scholars as childishly naive. At the very least, it raises serious questions about the relationship between our mathematical models of reality, and reality itself. While it is true that in the history of physics many important discoveries have emerged from revelations within equations — Paul Dirac’s formulation for antimatter being perhaps the most famous example — one does not need to be a cultural relativist to feel sceptical about the idea that the only way forward now is to accept an infinite cosmic ‘landscape’ of universes that embrace every conceivable version of world history, including those in which the Middle Ages never ended or Hitler won.

As for Smolin's book, she writes:

Time indeed is a huge conundrum throughout physics, and paradoxes surround it at many levels of being. In Time Reborn: From the Crisis in Physics to the Future of the Universe (2013) the American physicist Lee Smolin argues that for 400 years physicists have been thinking about time in ways that are fundamentally at odds with human experience and therefore wrong. In order to extricate ourselves from some of the deepest paradoxes in physics, he says, its very foundations must be reconceived. In an op-ed in New Scientist in April this year, Smolin wrote:

The idea that nature consists fundamentally of atoms with immutable properties moving through unchanging space, guided by timeless laws, underlies a metaphysical view in which time is absent or diminished. This view has been the basis for centuries of progress in science, but its usefulness for fundamental physics and cosmology has come to an end. 

In order to resolve contradictions between how physicists describe time and how we experience time, Smolin says physicists must abandon the notion of time as an unchanging ideal and embrace an evolutionary concept of natural laws.

I should look around for other reviews of the Smolin book...

Furry friends for science

Animals in research: mice

There's quite an interesting article here at The Conversation regarding the extensive use of mice in scientific research.

I learnt that there is a sperm bank for mice in Australia.  You can visit the website here.

I wonder if they have tiny magazines available for use by the donors....

We believe (no we don't)

Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald notes that last week in Parliament, a motion was passed with no dissent on climate change:

The Parliament was debating a motion put by NSW independent Rob Oakeshott to try to clear that up: "That this House expresses full confidence in the work of Australia's science community and confirms that it believes that man-made climate change is not a conspiracy or a con, but a real and serious threat to Australia if left unaddressed".

Why did Oakeshott think it necessary? "I thought it was important to get everyone on the record. Some of the Coalition members run around the country playing to an audience of conspiracy theorists and deniers."

The record does show that about a quarter of the Coalition's federal MPs have, at some point, expressed disbelief or outright denial that man-made climate change is real.... 

But when the Oakeshott motion was put to the House, the sceptics were nowhere to be seen. No one spoke against it in the bright glare of full national scrutiny: "We accept the science, we accept the targets and we accept the need for a market mechanism; we just happen to clearly, absolutely, fundamentally disagree over the choice of those mechanisms," Coalition spokesman Greg Hunt said. Prime among them, the carbon tax.

And when it came to the vote, the motion was carried on the voices, without dissent. This is taken as a unanimous vote. It "positions the deniers and the conspiracy theorists where they should be - on the fringe," Oakeshott says.

Here's what's missing from Hartcher's column.  From Michelle Grattan last week:

The Nats are having their jamboree, AKA federal council, in Canberra tomorrow, as the party juggles trying to keep its own voice while singing in the Abbott choir.

A morning highlight was to have been an address by climate sceptic professor Ian Plimer, sponsored by a Gina Rinehart company, of which Plimer is a director. But now his place is set to be taken by another Gina man, CEO of Hancock Prospecting, Tad Watroba, who earlier thought he couldn’t make the function. ....
The fact Plimer was on the program to speak says heaps – the Nationals were not afraid of the signals it might send, despite Abbott trying to ensure the argument about climate change itself, as distinct from the carbon tax as a way of dealing with it, doesn’t become an issue. Can anyone imagine the Liberal federal council having a climate sceptic as a featured speaker?

Two bits of physics

There are a couple of interesting posts out there about physics:

1.  Lee Smolin is the subject of a short article (including a video) about his new book summarised as follows:

Time is real, the laws of physics can change and our universe could be involved in a cosmic natural selection process in which new universes are born from black holes, renowned physicist and author Lee Smolin said in a talk at the Institute of Physics on 22 May.

 His views are contrary to the widely-accepted model of the universe in which time is an illusion and the laws of physics are fixed, as held by Einstein and many contemporary physicists as well as some ancient philosophers, Prof. Smolin said. Acknowledging that his statements were provocative, he explained how he had come to change his mind about the nature of reality and had moved away from the idea that the assumptions that apply to observations in a laboratory can be extrapolated to the whole universe. The debate had sometimes taken a metaphysical turn, he said, in which the idea that time is not real had led some to conclude that everything that humans value – such as free will, imagination and agency – is also an illusion. "Is it any wonder that so many people don't buy science? This is what is at stake," he said.

2.   Bee at Backreaction talks about the multiverse, inflation and cyclic models.  A bit technical but worth it.

She also reviewed Lee Smolin's book the subject of the point 1, and did not care for it.  Physicists, I don't know.

The trouble with Chris

Christopher Pyne has, it seems to me, made it pretty clear in the last 12 months that he tells tactical lies if he thinks he will get away with it.

There are now three examples which indicate his lack of close intimacy with forthright truthfulness:

1.   His attempts to distance himself from the James Ashby complaint about Peter Slipper was full of denials which were proved completely wrong; and the "oh I forgot about that" excuses were just not credible.

2.   The explanation attempted as to why that Labor MP was given a pair (that her request had not specified it was her sick child she wanted to visit) was shown to be wrong by reporters as soon as it said it:

Mr Pyne said the leave was requested on Monday for Ms Rowland to be with a "ill family member"  but did not specify it was her child.

"Warren Entsch quite rightly thought … that he would like further information," he said.
When it was put to Mr Pyne by reporters that the letter from Ms Rowland to Mr Entsch clearly stated the leave was to be with her child he said he would be asking further questions.

"I might," he said.

"That’s not the information that I have been provided by the chief whip," he said.

Given the brazenness that would have to be assumed of this attempted excuse if he knew it was a lie, maybe I should give him the benefit of the doubt?  Well perhaps, but he does have pretty brazen form on the Ashby matter, and then we have this latest item just from this last week.

3.  Pyne was on breakfast TV (can't find a link, but it was shown on Insiders this morning) talking about a letter he had written to the Independents asking if they would support a no confidence motion in the government.  Trouble was, the letter had been given to The Australia, but was sent via email that arrived an hour or so after the TV appearance.   He was challenged by Albanese that the Independents had not received such a letter; Pyne made out that they had definitely been sent.

Once again, he has a set up whereby he can (I suppose) blame someone else for his misleading statements.

Even allowing for routine slipperiness from politicians, I just do not trust the guy.  I predict that, assuming an Abbott election win in September, Pyne will be the first Minister to come unstuck in some scandal involving dishonesty.

Recipes noted

Excuse me while I note some recent successful Saturday night recipes I've used in the last month, for my future reference:

* Salmon pilau:   I can't be bothered re-typing this, so I will scan it from my very old book of canned fish recipes.  (It will serve me well in the coming climate apocalypse.)  You don't really have to use Ally brand salmon, honest.  It went over pretty well with the family.  Perhaps needs a side salad too, though:

*  Smoked salmon pasta:

Sort of made this up myself:

Sauté a large finely slice leek in some olive oil til soft; throw in some diced red capsicum for a while too, and some snow peas or something else green at the end.  Pour in most of a can of evaporated milk, and a 185 g packet of hot smoke salmon and bring to boil and let reduce a bit.   Pour over a packet of cooked pasta.   Delicious.

Hot smoked salmon is the key here, but it is become more and more popular in supermarkets now.  (I don't think you used to see it at all in the supermarket until a couple of years ago, but maybe I just wasn't looking.)   Your normal smoked salmon goes too oily in flavour when heated in pasta. 

Served four easily.

*   Ham hock with spiced cabbage:  I really liked this recipe, but the kids were only so-so about eating apple with cabbage and ham.  As even my wife was non committal in her enthusiasm level, I may never get to cook it again.  I may have to start cooking for strangers, preferably very hungry ones.

When they can get it down to 10 minutes, I'll start

Forget the gym: Just 12 minutes' exercise a week is enough to stay fit, says study

(Pretty extraordinary, if 3, four minute bouts of exercise a week can help, though.)

More detail on a well known problem

BBC News - Radiation poses manned Mars mission dilemma

I keep saying Mars is not that more attractive a place to be than the Moon (assuming there is at least some water on the Moon.)   In fact, even if there isn't water on the Moon at suitable locations, why not crash an icy asteroid onto it?  If you can find one, I suppose.

The Hidden Shyamalan and the Glitter Cannon Baz

Well, this is amusing.   The LA Times has a story about how M. Night Shyamalan's involvement as director and co-writer of the new Will Smith science fiction movie After Earth has been completely ignored in all of the advertisements.    It has been fun over the years watching the increasingly dire reviews for Shyamalan's films, but it's almost getting sad when he can make a movie and the studio tries to hide his involvement.

And guess what:  the new movie is getting pretty bad reviews anyway.  Maybe not quite as dire as some of his past ones, but it still sounds like a movie that is not going to to do well.  

As for the new The Great Gatsby:  I love to hate Baz Luhrmann, even though I don't see his movies either.   Gatsby has had mixed reviews, but one very savage one which I imagine would reflect my sensibilities is to be found in Crikey.   Here's how it ends:

If you own a copy of The Great Gatsby, you don’t need to cough up hard-earned to see Luhrmann’s movie. The experience can be replicated quite easily at home.

Here’s what you do. Play hip hop loudly. Retrieve the book from your shelf and douse it with glitter. Get a (preferably gold painted) hammer and smash it repeatedly. Turn the music up louder. Throw on more glitter. Do it again. Do it harder. Do it faster. And don’t, whatever you do, pause to consider what the author of the book might think of the grisly, glittering mess around you.

Update:  Will Smith and his son are said to have given a very peculiar interview as part of the publicity for this movie.  (There also appears to be a Scientologist connection in the family, which I hadn't heard before.  Not that that worries me - I enjoy Tom Cruise movies nonetheless.) 

Infrastructure for what?

Is microeconomic reform on its way back? - The Drum - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Alan Kohler has been getting some inside gossip about what the Coalition is looking at doing in terms of microeconomic reform.  It gives a good summary of how we got to where we are, but as for future plans, this is the core:

The National Competition Council, which came out of the Hilmer reforms, still exists but it is no longer the barnstorming body it was under Graeme Samuel, when it critically examined 2,500 pieces of legislation in a few years and doled out money to state governments for privatisation and other reforms.

As I understand it, the Coalition will re-energise the NCC and offer to return company tax receipts from newly privatised state enterprises for 10 years.

This has been a particular issue for the Queensland Government in thinking about the privatisation of its electricity assets, adding to the difficult politics of it. The Labor Government in Canberra has so far refused to consider donating any tax receipts from those businesses back to the state once they are privatised. A Coalition Government will offer to do it for 10 years.

On infrastructure, I understand the Coalition is looking at several models, including some form of Government-guaranteed infrastructure bonds.

I have a few questions:

1.  privatising electricity seems to have been a fetish of right wing reform for some time, but what is the evidence that it has substantially helped those states which have already followed that path, and hindered those that haven't?  

2.  Infrastructure for what?   Martin Ferguson said mining represents 60% of export income, and it would seem everyone expects that to decrease.   Mining obviously needs specialised infrastructure, but if the growth in that is slowing, where are the big infrastructure projects that are identified as helping the economy?  (Apart from your generic things like improvements to roads and highways:  I guess that will always have some advantage to an economy, but not dramatically.)   I am particularly interested in infrastructure that will help export markets.   Are agricultural exports particularly hindered by anything at the moment? 

3.  If you want to talk dams, and in particular dams in the North, where are they going to go?   Why isn't the Ord River project taken as a definitive warning that it is not a case of "build it and they will come"?   And wasn't there some body that looked at Northern development years ago and concluded that the quality of soil and geographic restrictions on where you can dam in the north meant it wasn't really viable?  (Update:  here's one report from 2009 detailing the issues with northern agricultural development with irrigation.  I haven't read it carefully, but the conclusion does not sound very promising.)

4.  It does concern me that "niche market" ideas that Australia could develop and have started to develop in the last decade or so seem to be much more subject to rapid  fluctuations in demand and economic conditions than mining.   For example, we are supposed to be pretty good at higher education in the region, but if the economy tanks for a few years, those overseas students dry up very quickly.   Agriculture is at the whim of the weather and will boom in some periods, and then struggle badly in droughts; and in all likelihood, climate change is going to exacerbate the extremes.   Film production goes well for some years, but is very much at the whim of the strength of the Australian dollar and the level of government assistance (as well as the government assistance other countries give.)   Any industry which is essentially done using computers, the internet or telecommunications is very easily moved to any cheaper country where English is commonly used.   It is a worry that manufacturing is so much at the whim of the dollar.    I guess I just feel concerned about how you ensure that niche market ideas can avoid all these pitfalls.

Update:  Jessica Irvine talked about infrastructure a couple of days ago - but it still strikes me as kind of vague: 

We need something bigger, like a new boom in road, rail and public transport construction. ...

Australia needs an independent agency, on par with the Reserve Bank, with the power to decide infrastructure priorities.

Labor, to its credit, invented Infrastructure Australia. But it is hamstrung in important ways. It can only provide a cost-benefit analysis of projects submitted by governments. It can’t make recommendations on other projects, such as a second Sydney airport for example.

It consists of 12 board members, chaired by Sir Rod Eddington and including the Treasury Secretary, Martin Parkinson, but its support agency, the Office of the Infrastructure Co-ordinator, is run on a shoestring.

According to IA estimates, Australian governments have about $100 billion in assets that could be sold, like electricity, utilities, gas, to fund important infrastructure investments. Even a small portion of that would represent significant seed funding for a beefed-up national infrastructure agency.

Such an agency could, like any other business, have the ability to borrow to fund important work. Investors could purchase longer term (20-year or 30-year) bonds to fund its work.

Unfair competition

GM 'hybrid' fish pose threat to natural populations, scientists warn | Environment | guardian.co.uk

The offspring of genetically modified salmon and wild brown trout are even faster growing and more competitive than either of their parents, a new study has revealed, increasing fears that GM animals escaping into the wild could harm natural populations.

The aggressive hybrids suppressed the growth of GM salmon by 82% and wild salmon by 54% when all competed for food in a simulated stream.

 I am unconvinced there is a real need to be genetically modifying fish just to get them to grow faster. 

Stay away from the window

I was struck by lightning yesterday—and boy am I sore | Ars Technica

A fascinating first hand account here of being struck by lightning inside a house, through a window.  (He was sitting pretty much beside the window, it would seem.  Have a watch of the video too.)

I always shut windows during electrical storms.   People think I am a bit obsessive about it.  It is, in fact, simply a reasonable precaution.   

All about emergency doors on planes

Airline emergency exit doors: Who unlocks exit doors in an emergency? - Slate Magazine

Interesting.

But includes most chronic set of right wing whingers

Australia Tops 'Better Life' List - WSJ.com

From the article:

A fading mining boom may be taking the gloss off Australia's resource-rich economy but the country has retained the title of happiest industrialized nation in the world.

That's according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Better Life Index, which ranked the world's developed economies on criteria such as jobs, income, environment and health...

The OECD survey of 34 industrialized nations didn't award an overall top ranking. But if each of the 11 categories in the survey is given equal weight, Australia's cumulative rank rises to No. 1, according to the OECD website.

Obviously, the OECD survery does not include a category for "most chronic set of Right wing whingers who are convinced the country is in an economic and social disaster when it isn't", because that would have brought the overall rating down.  

Two things in the survey surprise me:

While the OECD survey found that Australians rank their life-satisfaction at 7.2 out of 10, higher than the average of 6.6, the reading is below levels recorded in Mexico, Norway and neighboring New Zealand.

What makes Mexicans so happy?  The image of the country we have now is one of economic stagnation and extreme danger from the drug trade criminals.   In fact, what makes New Zealander's happy?  A large number want to live here.

And the other thing, more on the upside:

While locals complain of living costs, Australian households on average spend 19% of their disposable income on keeping a roof over their heads, below the OECD's average of 21%. And 85% of Australian respondents said they were in good health, well above the survey average of 69%.

Our housing costs are not as expensive as everyone seems to think?  That's a surprise.   (And the health figures probably have something to do with universal health care, one suspects.   The Tea Party inspired nutters of Catallaxy like to call Medicare "socialism" and think it should be abolished.)