A bunch of people (mainly on the Right) seem to think that the Covid lab leak theory has been shown to be true, when it hasn't at all.
A new study shows that the first origin story is still very much on the cards:
In a study published on Wednesday, a team of researchers compared the evolutionary story of SARS with that of Covid 17 years later. The researchers analyzed the genomes of the two coronaviruses that caused the pandemics, along with 248 related coronaviruses in bats and other mammals.
Jonathan Pekar, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Edinburgh and an author of the new study, said that the histories of the two coronaviruses followed parallel paths. “In my mind, they are extraordinarily similar,” he said.
In both cases, Dr. Pekar and his colleagues argue, a coronavirus jumped from bats to wild mammals in southwestern China. In a short period of time, wildlife traders took the infected animals hundreds of miles to city markets, and the virus wreaked havoc in humans.
“When you sell wildlife in the heart of cities, you’re going to have a pandemic every so often,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and an author of the new study.
You can read the details here.
The article ends:
Dr. Eloit and other scientists agreed that finding an intermediate form of SARS-CoV-2 in a wild mammal would make a compelling case for a natural spillover. Chinese authorities looked at some animals at the start of the pandemic and did not find the virus in them.
However, wildlife vendors at the Huanan market removed their animals from the stalls before scientists could study them. And once China put a stop to wildlife sales, farmers culled their animals.
“There’s a big missing piece, and you really can’t dance around it,” said Dr. Pond.
Stephen Goldstein, a geneticist at the University of Utah who was not involved in the new study, said that the research served as a warning about the risk of a future coronavirus pandemic. Wild mammals sold in markets anywhere in the region where SARS and Covid got their start could become a vehicle to a city hundreds of miles away. “The pieces of these viruses exist in all these places,” Dr. Goldstein said.
Now, of course, you could argue that climate change fence sitting has not stopped the public going for the Liberals before over the last 15 years - but the apparent success of the Teals in two elections now does strongly suggest to me that it has become a key issue for well off Australians based in the capital cities - who would formerly be seen as the Liberal's natural constituency.
As I'm sure I have written before, Malcolm Turnbull is the one who should have dragged the party into facing reality on this issue. He should have demanded that those who are going to continue casting doubt on the matter being a real, scientifically verified, issue should leave the party, and make any continuing coalition also dependent on the Nationals not undermining him. Maybe the Queensland melding of the parties would have made that difficult/impossible - but he should have acted decisively on it, instead of allowing the alternative to Labor to continue looking disingenuous in their strategy of "we believe in it - don't listen to our MPs and Senators who don't - but to keep the doubters happy we will nag continuously about renewables and undermine other action for political advantage."
Update: it seems still unclear if Tim Wilson will regain Goldstein, but you know, him being one of the few Liberal "wins" out of this generally disastrous election would actually amuse me, given that he is so ambitious that it will be funny to see how little he can achieve by being in such a diminished and talentless Opposition.
Watching a bit of evening commercial TV in Indonesia last week, one thing that really struck me was the amount of advertisements dedicated to kid's nutrition. Not just baby formula, but those toddler formula, and other foods, often with emphasis on health and development.
It reminded me that I had read before about the extent to which children in that country were considered to have "stunted" growth due to poor nutrition. I thought I had posted about it before, but can't find it in my blog search.
Googling it certainly brings up the stories, though:
The World Bank Board of Executive Directors on June 26, 2023, approved a program to provide additional support to expand Indonesia’s efforts to improve the delivery and quality of health and nutrition services for adolescent girls, pregnant women, and young children to accelerate the reduction of stunting among children under five.
Stunting, caused by undernutrition and frequent infections, can result in slower growth, cognitive damage, and impaired learning. The World Bank’s Human Capital Project identifies stunting reduction as crucial for countries to reach their full productive potential. Concerted efforts by Indonesia have lowered stunting rates from 31.4 percent in 2018 to 21.6 percent in 2022, and the country’s goal is to cut stunting further to 14 percent by 2024. The World Bank’s Investing in Nutrition and Early Years (INEY) Phase 2 Program will extend the duration and scope of World Bank support to the Government of Indonesia’s National Program for the Acceleration of Stunting Reduction.
This article at the ABC from 2019 has this surprising fact:
The country is classified as middle income by the World Bank, but its stunting rate is higher than those in South Sudan and Somalia.The government has responded by implemented a massive free meal program for schools and elsewhere:
Indonesia has launched a transformative free meal program designed to combat malnutrition and support underprivileged communities.
Championed by President Prabowo Subianto, the initiative aims to provide nutritious meals to almost 83 million Indonesians by 2029, focusing initially on school children and pregnant women.
However, logistical challenges, budgetary constraints and feedback from beneficiaries and experts highlight the complexities of implementing such a large-scale program.
But, the program is not without its problems:
Nearly 80 students across two high schools in Cianjur, south of the capital Jakarta, fell ill after eating the meals this week. Most of those who ended up in hospital have since been discharged.
This is the latest in a series of food poisonings that have been linked to the programme, a signature policy of President Prabowo Subianto.
Authorities investigating the case say the suspected cause is negligent food preparation. Samples from the vomit of students have been sent for lab testing, and police say they have questioned people handling the food, from cooks to packers to delivery workers....Across the world, programmes offering free meals to students have proved to be effective in improving health, academic performance and attendance.
But Indonesia's $28bn (£21bn) version - shaping up to be the most expensive of its kind - has become the target of food safety concerns and heated anti-government protests.
In February, when thousands took to the streets to protest at budget cuts, they aimed their ire at the hefty price of Prabowo's free school meals: "Children eat for free, parents are laid off," read one of their protest signs.
So, I guess it is no wonder that I saw kid's nutrition featuring on TV ads often...
I've been wondering for ages where the obsession with protein in the diet came from. This article in the New York Times doesn't fully explain, but notes this:
Protein has been the hot macronutrient for a while now. Longtime readers may recall that I gently mocked my husband for his protein obsession in 2023. He had been listening to health podcasts and social media posts, and various protein powders made their way into our pantry. In the two years since I wrote that piece, protein has become even more widespread. This month The Wall Street Journal noted that “in the year to Feb. 22, the fastest-growing grocery items were those with the most protein per serving — 25 grams or more, according to NielsenIQ data.” Members of the extended Kardashian clan, who never met a trend they couldn’t capitalize on, are in the mix. Khloe Kardashian just announced a new line of protein popcorn called Khloud.
Protein-forward diets are easy to market because they appeal to both men and women. Dieting in general is female coded, but men can focus on protein without feeling emasculated because body builders do it and it comes in the form of literal red meat (hello beef tallow, my old friend) and gym-rat powders.
And:
I would like to tell you that I moved away from my protein obsession because I saw that it was silly and that, as a person who is healthy and fit, it was an unnecessary tweak. But the truth is, I stopped because most of those protein-packed products tasted like chemicals and sawdust and they caused the kind of gastrointestinal woe I do not need to go into. “Proteinified food is just slightly better junk. Whether you notice the ‘better’ or the ‘junk’ first is a Rorschach test: You see whichever you care about more in the moment,” concluded Chris Gayomali in Grub Street, after he did a deep dive on how protein took over American grocery stores.Unfortunately, the linked article is behind a paywall. Guess I will have to look elsewhere.
Yes I'm back from the short trip to Jakarta/Yogyakarta.
Let's start with the photo above of the Hindu (and Buddhist) temple compound at Prambanan, on the outskirts of Yogyakarta. The amount of reconstruction that had to be done is pretty amazing, putting together the blocks again after eruptions and earthquakes over the centuries. (It was built in the 9th century, but abandoned for about 900 years.)
On arriving there, this was the first "influencer in the wild" that I spotted on this trip. A simple photo of smiling and being happy to be at a grand historical site was not enough for her, obviously:
The temples are very impressive, obviously:
After seeing the group of Hindu temples, you can take a golf buggy ride (or walk in the heat) to a separate large group of temples at the back of the compound to see the one that is believed to have been Buddhist (and yes, I think the tops look more obviously stupa like than in the Hindu temples above):
He dedicated himself to writing The History of Java, an encyclopaedic, seminal study of Java, contributing hugely to Western knowledge of the East and still used by scholars today. In 1815, undaunted by the 400-mile journey across difficult tropical terrain, he finally arrived at the jungle covered site on the fertile Kedu Plain to find a vast structure built of andesite covered with panels of exquisitely carved relief carvings – the Buddhist temple of Borobudur.
Sir Stamford Raffles was, as Collis writes, ‘captivated by it as a work of art,’ even if he was, as Collis claims, uncertain whether it was Hindu or Buddhist. ‘We are at a loss,’ wrote Raffles, ‘whether most to admire the extent and grandeur of the whole construction, or the beauty, richness and correctness of the sculpture’. Filled with awe, he organised drawing, measuring and recording details about the numinous structure with its rising four square terraces, three circular terraces,1,460 radiant relief carvings, 504 life size images of the Buddha and 72 perforated stupas culminating in a single, large, empty stupa at the top. Dating from the 9th century and the period of the Sailendra (‘Lords of the Mountain’) dynasty in Java, the exquisite narrative carvings form a divine exposition of Mahayana Buddhist doctrine, as later scholarship would reveal, with figures in meditative and graceful movement, sculpted with sublime expressions.
Hindu clerics appealed to the people of Java for generations, a fact that architect and author Jacques Dumarçay finds first mentioned in 450 AD.[25] Influence of the Sailendra and Sanjaya dynasties followed. Dumarçay says that de Casparis concluded that Sanjaya and Sailendra shared power in central Java for a century and a half, and that de Casparis traced alternating succession from 732 until 882.[26] During this time many Hindu and Buddhist monuments were built on the plains and mountains around the Kedu Plain. Buddhist monuments, including Borobudur, were erected around the same period as the Hindu Prambanan temple compound. In 732 AD, King Sanjaya commissioned a Shivalinga sanctuary to be built on the Wukir hill, only 10 km (6.2 mi) east of Borobudur.[27]
There are no known records of construction or the intended purpose of Borobudur.[28] The duration of construction has been estimated by comparison of carved reliefs on the temple's hidden foot and the inscriptions commonly used in royal charters during the 8th and 9th centuries.[28] Comparison of an Indian architectural process across temples, and acknowledgment of who was in power, enabled Dumarçay to approximately date the construction of Borobudur in five stages.[29] Loosely, the Sailendra began c. 780, and continued stages two and three c. 792 through to an unremarkable fourth stage during their decline c. 824.[30] The Sanjaya completed Borobudur's fifth stage c. 833.[30][a]
Seems to me that the American stock market is actually not taking as seriously as it should the effect of Chinese tariffs. I guess there is a fair chance that it is because of Trump's constant reversals, or pauses, but it seems to me he is not likely to make a major reversal on several key Chinese exports that are important to American manufacturing and business:
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The Trump administration insisted Sunday that it has no legal obligation to arrange for the return of a Maryland man illegally deported from the United States, arguing that a Supreme Court ruling last week only requires officials to admit him into the country if he makes it back from a high-security prison in El Salvador.And why exactly is this guy Buekele sucking up to Trump?:
Justice Department lawyers told a federal judge that they don’t interpret the Supreme Court’s Thursday ruling — that the administration “facilitate” Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s release — as obligating the administration to do anything more than adjust his immigration status to admit him if El Salvador’s government chooses to release him.
Attorney General Pam Bondi told reporters at the White House that the fate of the father of three is now up to El Salvador.
Buekele then said that he does not have the power to return Ábrego García t the US - and that he won't.
Also on the agenda was topics including transgender people in sports, DEI and women, Iran and tariffs and Ukraine and Russia.
Temu Goebbels, as I have seen Stephen Miller called on social media, insists that the deported guy deserved it and it wasn't a mistake, contradicting court filings by the administration.
We're about a centimetre away from being able to declare the US a fascist state.
It is difficult to comprehend fully how yin and yang pervade Heaven and Earth because the forces themselves are invisible. That images may manifest the minute is a fact that does not perplex even the foolish, whereas forms hidden in what is invisible are what confuses even the learned.
How much more difficult it is, therefore, to understand the way of Buddhism, which exalts the void, uses the dark, and exploits the silent in order to succor the myriad grades of living things and exercise control over the entire world. Its spiritual authority is the highest, and its divine potency has no equal. Its magnitude impregnates the entire cosmos; there is no space so tiny that it does not permeate it. Birthless and deathless, it does not age after a thousand kalpas; half-hidden and half-manifest, it brings a hundred blessings even now. A wondrous way most mysterious, those who follow it cannot know its limit. A law flowing silent and deep, those who draw on it cannot fathom its source. How, therefore, could those benighted ordinary mortals not be perplexed if they tried to plumb its depths?
Interesting opinion piece seems to be free to read at the Jakarta Post (for now anyway):
Why corruption thrives in a religious society
Here are some bits:
In a widely shared article titled “Religius tapi Gemar Korupsi, Ada Apa?” (Religious but keen to corrupt), Kompas journalist M. Zaid Wahyudi raised a timely question: Why does corruption remain widespread in a nation so openly religious? His article highlights a common assumption, that religion guarantees morality, that belief and ritual naturally lead to ethical behavior. A paradox indeed: Indonesia ranks high in religiosity but low in clean governance. Places of worship are crowded; prayer groups flourish. Yet corruption remains a daily reality. So, if religion is not to blame, what is missing?
....
WW Howells, in The Heathens: Primitive Man and His Religions, explains that early religion was never primarily moral. It was a response to fear. Faced with death, disease and natural disasters, early humans created rituals to reduce anxiety and restore order. Religion gave comfort, not necessarily ethics.
This primitive function has not disappeared. Today’s religious practices, prayers, fasting, sacred artifacts, still serve psychological and social needs: belonging, identity and comfort.
However, these rituals do not always shape conduct. One can fear God yet cheat the system. One can wear piety as a badge yet abuse office. Religion works well as a symbol. But without inner conviction, it does not restrain wrongdoing. The psychologist Lawrence Kohlberg showed why. His six-stage model of moral development explains that people grow from a basic fear of punishment to principled reasoning. But most never reach the higher stages. Many obey rules to avoid shame or to be accepted by others, not out of justice or compassion.
Public religiosity often reinforces these early stages. One fasts only to be seen, prays to belong, avoids alcohol to gain respect. The moral compass is external. Right and wrong depend on who’s watching. And so corruption thrives, not because people lack belief, but because belief stays stuck at the surface level.
....
Ruth Benedict and Koentjaraningrat both showed that Indonesian society leans more toward a shame culture than a guilt culture. What matters is not whether something is right, but whether it is seen. The wrongdoing itself is tolerated as long as it stays hidden. When exposure comes, the shame is in being caught, not in having done wrong. So the question is not “Why are religious people corrupt?” but “Why has religious life become more about performance than formation?”
I was watching a clip from CNN this morning featuring two American women who run small businesses and their concerns about the tariffs.
One in particular had a story which would be happening in thousands of small businesses across the country. She designs and manufacturers some kind of baby products, and has them manufactured in China. It's a small business, I think with 5 employees. She has a loan secured by her house to support the business.
She said she has a shipment of products waiting to leave China, but she knows she cannot afford the massive tariff abuptly imposed on them. It means the few months of stock she has left might be the end of the business. She can't figure out a work around (she mentioned shipping them first to Australia and repackaging them before sending on to the US) because of the continuous changes in policy "every 36 hours". She also said there is no way an American factory can be expected to be geared up to make her particular products in less than (I think) 6 to 12 months. That's assuming she can find any factory that can take it on.
This all sounded very realistic and with no exaggeration for political spin.
I thought it a very effective and telling story on the turmoil which Trump and his very rich advisers, who don't have a worry in the world about how it will affect them, are causing.
Here's a link to the video.
Funny the things that can pop into your head while ironing a shirt. Or am I just remembering something I have already read online?
For some reason, I was thinking about the Wizard of Oz, and the song "If I only had a heart/brain/the nerve", which sums up the deficiencies of each of Dorothy's companions. Then Trump came to mind, and I realised how remarkable it is that he is like a Trinity of each of these deficiencies in the one man.
No brain - the evidence is overwhelming.
No heart - has no real interest in justice and wants to punish foreigners for all of America's woes.
No nerve - President Heal Spurs who flip flops on policy continuously.
The only way in which the analogy falls apart is in the resolution in the movie, where the characters are taught they always had what they desired within them. I try to be generous, but I can't see that happening with Trump...
[The other obvious Trump in Oz comparison was in the meme that went around a few months ago that showed Putin as the true Wizard behind the curtain controlling the fake Wizard head in the form of Trump. I liked that too.]
I would guess that like most people, I have the slimmest understanding of bond markets, but as far as I can tell, the changes in the US market may well have been the motivation for Trump to "pause" his tariff plans (on everyone except China). See this article, for example:
U.S. Treasury bonds are being sold off. Here’s why it’s concerning.
I don't really understand why it seems no one can tell who is selling - there was speculation by some that it was retaliatory selling by China, and denials from other finance types that the pattern indicated that this was the likely explanation.
Here's an opinion column at the NYT about it:
What’s Probably Going On With the Volatile Bond Market
And how disingenuous is Bessent: that this was Trump's plan all along. And he denies the bond market had anything to do with it. Not to be trusted in the slightest.
Finally: many, many people suspect a lot of insider trading happened on the Republican side. Who would be surprised? No one, given that this administration seems to be the first to think that if you do it (pretty much) in the open, it can't be corruption.
I note that the headline on an NPR article about a new book on the last Presidential election has this headline:
Biden's closest advisers were in 'denial' about his decline, 'Uncharted' author says
But in the body of the interview, the author seems to make the case that the decline was in stamina only, and nothing to do with mental ability when sufficiently rested:
As the 2024 campaign kicked into gear, the president couldn't hide from public scrutiny, Whipple says. He notes that in the days leading up to his disastrous debate with President Trump, Biden "was in a terrible state."
"He was absolutely exhausted. He was unable really to follow what was happening in the campaign. He was tuned out," Whipple says. "Early on, he walked out of a [debate preparation] session in the Aspen Lodge, the president's cabin, went over to the pool, sank into a lounge chair, and just fell sound asleep."
OK, but then further down:
On why Biden's staffers believed he could still govern
I think that this is much more interesting and not nearly as simple as the notion of a cover-up. In other words, I am convinced that Joe Biden's inner circle was convinced that Joe Biden was capable of governing, and they believed that he could do it for another four years. And we can't dismiss the fact that Biden on the very last day, July 21st, that Sunday when his aides came to hammer out his abdication statement, Joe Biden was on the phone parsing the details of a complex multi-nation prisoner swap. He was on top of every detail.
People who visited Biden in the Oval Office to talk about the Middle East said he was on top of every nuance of Middle Eastern policy. ... Joe Biden, behind closed doors, was governing, capably, whether you liked his policies or not. So there's no question that he was a shadow of the campaigner that he once was, and that was true from 2020 all the way to the end. But, you can't dismiss the fact — it's an inconvenient fact for people who say it was a cover-up — that Biden was capable.
* I still think, after viewing the extended sneak peek on Youtube, that the new Superman film does look good. It's weird, but so many people in comments on Youtube agree that it literally "looks great" - meaning the colours and CGI and cinematography overall. And there's a dog, of course. It's funny how some trailers can really still hit the spot and make a film look like it will definitely be a hit - I felt the same about the one for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
* I see that Spielberg is now actually directing his first film in years, and it's a science fiction one something to do with UFOs. Cool.
* There is also a new Wes Anderson film coming out. And again, it is in his highly, highly idiocentric and stylised, um, style, which makes the recent films play more like dryly and ironically amusing comic books than anything reflecting the real world. In fact, I reckon people now feel that his refusal to back down from this signature style has become something of a meta-joke in itself. As for me: I do think his "miss" rate has been getting higher (I didn't think much of Asteroid City, although I was watching on an jet and had interruptions), but I still am happy to try out each new one to see just how amused I am. I don't know why, but there is something pleasing about his persistent self indulgence, perhaps because you have a sense of how much he likely enjoys creating it?
* On politics: I am encouraged about the Labor policy to subsidise more home battery power. As I said a while ago - why aren't they (and solar panels, and solar hot water) a requirement on all new house builds under State construction codes? Maybe not worth it in Tasmania, but definitely for most of the country.
Sure, there are some around who tread carefully, sound socially responsible and don't go nuts.
But - Elon Musk, obviously.
And now, I'm wondering about this Scott Bessent, (worth about half a billion, apparently) who I knew nothing about until this tariff meltdown.
I mean, Wikipedia indicates that he used to have decent Democrat supporting credentials (originally worked for Soros, supported by donations Gore, Hilary Clinton and Obama.) Now he works for Trump.
Despite rumours (JC at New Catallaxy referenced them, but I think I have seen it said online too) that he's privately freaking out about how Trump has dealt with his tariff scheme, there is no indication of that at all in his public appearances - he went on Tucker Carlson to defend the whole scheme, talking about the need for a complete recreation of American trade, etc. And look at the reference to him in this article from WAPO, about how the MAGA Right has gone all Maoist:
Recently, a viral meme in MAGA circles captured the moment, featuring a cartoon Trump addressing a faceless American: “Your great grandfather worked the mines, your grandfather worked in a steel plant, and you thought you could be a ‘product manager’ ???” It’s a joke, but it’s also a worldview — one where white-collar ambition is seen not as a step forward, but as a fall into decadence. The meme doesn’t just mock digital work; it exalts physical labor as the only authentic form of contribution.
What we’re seeing is a kind of MAGA Maoism, remixed for the algorithm age. Like the Chinese Cultural Revolution, it glorifies physical labor as moral purification, only now the purification is from the supposed “wokeness” of desk work, filtered through TikTok, X and Twitch. It’s not about creating jobs. It’s about creating vibes: strong men doing hard things, reshared until they become ideology. As one MAGA influencer put it, “Men in America don’t need therapy. Men in America need tariffs and DOGE. The fake email jobs will disappear.”
This style, what some might call online pastoralism, is no longer fringe. It is a governing strategy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently hinted to Tucker Carlson that the administration plans to restock America’s factories with recently fired federal workers. It’s a sharp evolution of the old MAGA line, which claimed elites abandoned the working class by offshoring jobs and hoarding the degrees that powered the new economy. Now, those same college-educated liberals once seen as the future of work are being recast as its obstacle.
This new turn is also punitive: It challenges the idea drilled into millennial and Gen Z brains — especially immigrant families, like my own — that education and meritocracy are the path to the American Dream. It says not only that you were left behind, but that you were wrong to try to get ahead. Populists used to share memes about miners who were condescendingly told to “learn to code” while their towns struggled. The coders, in this updated version, need to be thrown back in the mines.
I don't trust him in the slightest.
Exploitation fears as people in extreme poverty perform stunts and beg for virtual gifts
My daughter has said that she is very close to deleting Tik Tok off her phone because she fully recognises the way it saps attention span and wastes time. I must ask her if she has done it yet...
