Wednesday, July 24, 2019

A telling tale of the United States


So, the US could get him to the Moon and back, but couldn't assure safe surgery under their health care system?

Either that or I am being unfair and it was not the hospital's/surgeon's fault, but what about the ridiculous litigation infested US system that was unfairly used to enrich a white family that probably had money to spare?

Either way, I can turn it into a Lefty attack on the modern US.

Maybe he can tell us about Harry's Dad?

Well, what an odd story:
A television personality in Australia says that his four-year-old son has made a number of inexplicable and eerie statements which suggest that he was Princess Diana in a past life. The bizarre revelation reportedly came by way of a magazine article written by the boy's bewildered father David Campbell. He explained that the strangeness began two years ago when the youngster first pointed to a picture of Diana and declared "look, it's me when I was a princess."

According to Campbell, the boy continued to make spooky comments about what appears to be his past life, such as saying that he had two boys that he called his 'sons.' While the confounded dad initially dismissed these statements as fanciful talk from the toddler, he really took notice when they began to become more detailed. In particular, Campbell says that his son was able to name a site in Scotland where Diana frequently stayed and can describe the interior of the residence known as Balmoral.

Chillingly, the child has even allegedly made mention of Diana's tragic death, saying "one day the sirens came and I wasn't a princess anymore."

As might be expected

Over at Quillette, a profile of Boris Johnson has some lurid passages.  Here is a memory of him from 1983, debating at Oxford:
With his huge mop of blond hair, his tie askew and his shirt escaping from his trousers, he looked like an overgrown schoolboy. Yet with his imposing physical build, his thick neck and his broad, Germanic forehead, there was also something of Nietzsche’s Übermensch about him. You could imagine him in lederhosen, wandering through the Black Forest with an axe over his shoulder, looking for ogres to kill. This same combination—a state of advanced dishevelment and a sense of coiled strength, of an almost tangible will to power—was even more pronounced in his way of speaking.
This writer, Toby Young, then says that Boris argued all over the shop, appeared unprepared, and prompted laughter, but he (Toby) still seemed to find it all a cunning plan:
You got the sense that he could easily have delivered a highly effective speech if he’d wanted to, but was too clever and sophisticated—and honest—to enter into such a silly charade. To do what the other debaters were doing, and pretend he believed what was coming out of his mouth, would have been patronising. Everyone else was taking the audience for fools, but not him. He was openly insincere and, in being so, somehow seemed more authentic than everyone else. To say I was impressed would be an understatement.
Now, to be fair, Young makes it clear in the rest of the article that he has plenty of reservations about how Boris will perform as PM, but at the end of the day, it's the feelz:
The rational part of my brain is still full of doubts and uncertainties. What sensible person would look at Boris’s peripatetic career and rakish personality and conclude that he is the right man to lead Britain at this moment of maximum danger? But at a more primitive level, a level impervious to reason, I cannot help but believe. From the first moment I saw him, I felt I was in the presence of someone special, someone capable of achieving great things. And I’ve never quite been able to dispel that impression.
Update:  following Jason's assurances about how good the UK Spectator is, I see that it has a Nick Cohen anti Johnson/Brexit column which reads in part:
Brexit was won with an impossible promise that we could have wrenching economic and constitutional change without suffering. Now the men and women who sold the false prospectus have 100 days to try to make good on their word. They will either succeed and leave the little people to live with the consequences or be thrown out of power and freed to play the role of martyr that appeals as much to the Brexit right as the Corbynite left.

As they chunter in their think tanks and newspapers and rage on the Web, they will say that they at least remained pure, they at least remained true to the lies they told to themselves as much as others. They were riding the unicorn to a glorious future until they were betrayed by the EU, by the remainers, by the elite. By anyone but them.



As if a rush to Mars wasn't nutty enough

Axios says that Robert Zubrin, who has spent a lot of time trying to promote a complicated way of getting to and from Mars, and a couple of other "space evangelists" got caught up in the excitement of the Apollo 11 celebrations by saying that actually, colonising Titan is a better long term for humanity.   By 2069.  

Ha ha. 

I will write a post about the continual confusion about the aims of a space program sometime soon.

But what's really important

What a tosser:


Yeah, because the fear of the white male (and the occasional Asian one) being so oppressed that they can't talk about how annoying they find the cultural Left is the major danger to the world at the moment.  

Actually, last night I was thinking:  people like Latham and his latest acolytes from Catallaxy past and present (he is big at Catallaxy at the moment, which people should take as a bad sign) complain that the cultural Left is all about "feelz" - claiming victim status, seeking out offence whether it intended or not, etc.    But their reaction against it has exactly the same over-emotional colour - how else can you inflate the matter of "PC-oppression" into such a large scale, crushing problem of global proportion?    You're into the "feelz" just as much as they are, Latho. 

Sounds all above board [sarcasm]

I really like the spaghetti diagram of Adani's financial set up in this article which lists these key points:

 Key points:
  • The company responsible for the Carmichael coal mine has current liabilities of more than $1.8b versus current assets of less than $30m
  • The auditors signed off on the company being a "going concern" because of a 12-month guarantee from the Indian parent firm
  • Accounting expert Sandra van der Laan says "effectively on paper they are insolvent. I wouldn't be trading with them"


Woke mining executive

The chief executive of the world's largest mining company has endorsed drastic action to combat global warming, which he calls "indisputable," and an emerging crisis.

"The planet will survive. Many species may not," BHP CEO Andrew Mackenzie told a business breakfast in London on Tuesday.

"This is a confronting conclusion but as a veteran geologist once said, 'you can't argue with a rock.'"
The link is here.

A pod of pea brain opinion writers for The Australian are drafting their pooh-poohing columns in response as I write.

Domestic violence of the American kind

FBI Director Christopher A. Wray told lawmakers Tuesday that the bureau has recorded about 100 arrests of domestic terrorism suspects in the past nine months and that most investigations of that kind involve some form of white supremacy — though an FBI spokeswoman later clarified the percentage is smaller.   ......
At a congressional hearing in May, the head of the FBI’s counterterrorism division testified that the bureau was investigating 850 domestic terrorism cases and that of those, about 40 percent involved racially motivated violent extremists. Most in that group, he said, were white supremacists.
That's from the Washington Post.

But the real problem is that a journalist/opinion writer who knows he gets up the nose of Leftist thugs stood in the middle of a protest involving some of them and got beaten up, hey Jason.  

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Some Guardian funnies

Author John Marsden has a piece at The Guardian in which he complains about over-parenting and the harm he sees it doing to kids education these days.  (He apparently now runs a couple of private schools in the bush where physical activity is far from discouraged.)

Anyway, I thought this comment was not too far off the mark, but the follow up comment was a bit funny nonetheless:

Yeah, sure

Axios headline:

Top 2020 Dems would punish China over mass detentions of Uighurs 

Had missed the support that China has received from some countries:
Context: Earlier this week, 37 countries — including North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Russia, among other mostly-authoritarian states — signed a letter defending China's policies in Xinjiang.
The bottom line: Most of the world has been largely silent on this issue due in large part to China’s economic clout and penchant for lashing out over criticisms of its internal affairs. Trump administration officials have repeatedly criticized China but not acted on concrete proposals to impose costs on Beijing.
I don't think anyone can do much about it anyway.

I think it will be very interesting to see if such an attempt at compulsory mass re-education to love your authoritarian government can actually work.  

An unusual form of dark matter detector

At Science, an article explaining that scientists think they can rule out one form of dark matter, because if it existed, " people would be dying of unexplained ‘gunshot’ wounds". 
The idea boils down to this: If a certain type of dark matter particle existed, it would occasionally kill people, passing through them like a bullet. Because no one has died from unexplained gunshotlike wounds, this type of dark matter does not exist, according to a new study....

A less mainstream dark matter candidate, known as macros, would form heavier particles. Although macros would be much rarer than WIMPs, any collisions with ordinary matter would be violent, leaving an obvious trace. The new study explores what those traces might look like if the macros hit people.

Glenn Starkman and Jagjit Singh Sidhu, theoretical physicists at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, were originally searching for traces of macros in granite slabs when a colleague made a suggestion. “Why can’t you just use humans as a detector?” they recall Robert Scherrer, a co-author and theoretical physicist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville saying. “The energies you’re talking about, these things would probably at best maim a person, at worst kill a person.”

The team forged ahead with the idea and modeled macros that would have a similar effect to a fatal shot from a .22 caliber rifle. Such particles would be minuscule, but very heavy, and thus release the same amount of energy as a bullet as it passes through a person. Their calculations focused on the millions of people living in Canada, the United States, and Western Europe over the past decade because researchers say these countries have more reliable data on how many people died and from what causes.

In this sample, scientists would expect to see a handful of reports of unexplained deaths from invisible dark matter “bullets.” But there were none, the researchers report this week on the preprint server arXiv. These deaths would not go unnoticed—they would leave victims dead or dying with a tubular wound where their flesh was vaporized.
Good thing it doesn't exist, I guess.

Ups and downs (global warming is not as simple as some want it to be)

Well, that's interesting.  And Graeme will be along in comments today to say that he's taken time off from contemplating space cows on Ceres, unlimited electricity in space, water oceans on the Sun,  and ancient greenhouses on Mars to say "try science, Steve."
 Climate-related risks are dependent not only on the warming trend from GHGs, but also on the variability about the trend. However, assessment of the impacts of climate change tends to focus on the ultimate level of global warming1, only occasionally on the rate of global warming, and rarely on variability about the trend. Here we show that models that are more sensitive to GHGs emissions (that is, higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)) also have higher temperature variability on timescales of several years to several decades2. Counter-intuitively, high-sensitivity climates, as well as having a higher chance of rapid decadal warming, are also more likely to have had historical ‘hiatus’ periods than lower-sensitivity climates. Cooling or hiatus decades over the historical period, which have been relatively uncommon, are more than twice as likely in a high-ECS world (ECS = 4.5 K) compared with a low-ECS world (ECS = 1.5 K). As ECS also affects the background warming rate under future scenarios with unmitigated anthropogenic forcing, the probability of a hyper-warming decade—over ten times the mean rate of global warming for the twentieth century—is even more sensitive to ECS.
Here's a press release type report about the same study.


Mayor Pete and the loss of well written, politically topical novels

Slate has an article up looking at a Pete Buttigieg speech in which he referenced the Graham Greene novel The Quiet American (but, in Slate's view, somewhat misread its message.)   I see that the book came out in 1955 (I thought it was a bit later than that.)

All very interesting, and a great reminder that this is what we seem to have lost in recent literature - authors who are widely travelled, well read, and can write really well with a distinctive perspective  about the current, complicated, state of the world.   

 Instead, modern literature seems to have become intensely navel gazing and way less interesting for it.

I should really go read more of Greene.  (I think I have read 4 or 5.)  I think even some of his lesser known works have key parts that have lodged in memory due to their distinctiveness.

Monday, July 22, 2019

Moon telescopes

Once again, I wonder: why hasn't there ever been a decent science fiction novel (that I know of) about the far side of the Moon?   I mean, there are good astronomical reasons for having a base there, but if orbiting communications satellites stopped working, it would be about the loneliest place in the local corner of the universe.   Surely the potential isolation could be a good setting for a story?  

Anyhow, that's all by way of preamble to noting that Science magazine has an article about possible astronomical uses for the far side, from low frequency radio telescopes:
Charting the dark ages' 21-centimeter radiation “is essential. It has to be done at some point,” says radio astronomer Heino Falcke of Radboud University in Nijmegen, the Netherlands, who works on the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR), a vast radio telescope spread across northern Europe. The problem is that after 13 billion years of cosmic expansion, photons from the dark ages arrive at Earth stretched to frequencies below 50 MHz, where they not only have to contend with the ionosphere, but also with confounding signals from ham radio, aviation, and long-distance communications. LOFAR, for example, has struggled to detect the 21-centimeter signal from that epoch (Science, 7 November 2014, p. 688). The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array, which Hewitt and others are building in South Africa, may have a better shot. But Falcke and others are looking to the Moon.

Burns's 35-year campaign for a lunar radio telescope won him NASA funding in 2008 to form a team called LUNAR to work out how to build it. The researchers designed a lunar telescope array that would include hundreds of simple dipole antennas laid flat on the ground. They demonstrated how autonomous rovers could lay out strips of conducting film to act as antennas. In a 2013 experiment, astronauts on the International Space Station remotely guided a rover that laid out antenna strips on a simulated moonscape at the NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, to show how a future crew onboard NASA's proposed Moon-orbiting Lunar Gateway station could supervise construction.
 to optical:

One solution, proposed by a NASA-funded team last decade, is to build a liquid mirror. The idea is simple: Construct a large shallow circular dish, fill it with a liquid, and set it gently spinning. Centrifugal force will pull the surface into a parabolic shape. Liquid mirror telescopes on Earth use mercury, which is naturally reflective. The biggest so far was the 6-meter Large Zenith Telescope in British Columbia in Canada. That testbed telescope, built in 2003 and now decommissioned, paved the way for the 4-meter International Liquid Mirror Telescope, which will take its first view of the sky from the Devasthal Observatory in India later this year. Although a liquid mirror is limited to looking straight up, the rotation of Earth—or the Moon—scans it across the sky.

Mercury won't work on the Moon—it would evaporate in the lunar vacuum and is too heavy to transport from Earth. In its place, the NASA team came up with a class of organic compounds called ionic liquids, essentially molten salts, that would remain liquid in the frigid lunar night. Ionic liquids are not reflective, but could be glazed with silver to make an ideal reflecting surface. Superconducting bearings could levitate the dish and keep it spinning frictionlessly. “In principle there is no limit on the size,” says team member Ermanno Borra of Laval University in Quebec City, Canada. “This would be totally impossible in space, but not that expensive on the Moon.”

The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) followed up the NASA study by looking at the practicalities of building such a scope. “There were no showstoppers and the mechanical tolerances were more relaxed than for a space telescope,” says Paul Hickson of the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. A 20-meter telescope, CSA concluded, would require no more than 3.5 tons of material to be transported to the surface. An even larger instrument, as big as 100 meters across, “would be in a class of its own,” Hickson says, able to study the very first stars that formed and coalesced into galaxies at the end of the dark ages.

No beer burps in space

At NPR, they have an article talking about the way astronaut food has changed over the years, and end on this point (my bold):
Astronauts must go without many popular foods and beverages on the International Space Station, including soda — the carbonation goes wacky in space and could wreak havoc on the digestive system; perishable items, because food poisoning would be pretty terrible in space; and alcohol, because it could damage water recovery equipment and impair astronauts' judgment.

And some have been staples since the early missions. Tang, a beverage nearly synonymous with spaceflight, remains popular among astronauts today. What you won't hear about as often — shrimp cocktail. "Shrimp cocktail has almost forever been [one of] their favorite foods," Bourland says (and Kloeris agrees).
New Scientist once had an article on beer in space, and noted:
Unfortunately for thirsty astronauts, beer is poorly suited to space consumption because of the gas it includes. Without gravity to draw liquids to the bottoms of their stomachs, leaving gases at the top, astronauts tend to produce wet burps.

“That’s one of the reasons why we don’t have carbonated beverages on the space menu,” NASA spokesperson William Jeffs told New Scientist.
Burping got coverage in another article, which explained
You can't burp in space - at least not like you do here on Earth.

"You can't burp in space because the air, food and liquids in your stomach are all floating together like chunky bubbles," Hadfield replied on Twitter.

"If you burp, you throw up into your mouth. So guess where the trapped air goes?"

But you can try to time your burps right:
If you do end up going to space, there was one enterprising astronaut who found a way to belch without bomiting. According to the book What's it Like in Space? by Ariel Waldman, NASA astronaut and physicist Jim Newman, who has spent 43 days in space, developed what he called the "push and burp."

"He found that by pushing off a wall, he could create a force in lieu of gravity that kept his food down in his stomach, giving him a brief chance at expelling gas without consequence," Waldman wrote.



Ultra violence as entertainment

Yesterday, my wife had put on John Wick 2 on Netflix but proceeded to spend all of her time looking at her phone, while I occasionally saw bits of it from the kitchen. 

I once started watching the first one, but left it before the violence started.   (I think I thought some of the acting was bad, and wasn't interested in a revenge over a dog story anyway.)

Well, the tiny amount I did see of JW2 I thought was pretty dismaying regarding the desensitisation of society to graphic violence.  It was what, back in 1969 (in the news this weekend for obvious reasons), would have been called shocking ultra-violence.   It's still ultra-violence, but now people watch it for entertainment.

I really do not like the way this incremental change happened to society, and continue to be  dismayed at the lack of critical thought applied to the question of the depiction of violence.

I would also add that while Keanu Reeves get all this adulation for being such a nice guy, to my mind he has no taste for being in these movies.  

Serious Catholics who do not have a problem with the film (such as this guy) need their head read.   

Raw

Guess what I ate for the first time on Saturday? 

Steak tartare.  It was at a French cafe at South Bank which my wife and I quite like; and no, I didn't order it for myself, but my wife had it as a main and there was too much for her.

The idea of the dish has never appealed to me (I am not even that keen on seafood sushimi), but it was pretty nice.  I expected a raw meat flavour but the seasoning overrides all of that.

See, all of you with an electric cook top can now cut your electricity bill substantially by eating the way lions do, and help save the planet from CO2 emissions.   (This line designed to annoy Jason.)


Sunday, July 21, 2019

The (lack of) clear memory of the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11 post

I write this knowing that at this exact  time 50 years ago I was keenly watching Armstrong step onto the moon.  But as I have confessed before, despite my great interest in all space related news as a child, my 8 year old brain did not record permanently enough whether I was watching at school or at home. 

I know I saw some Apollo stuff at school, but I am pretty sure the lunar step was not the only time they got the TV out.  I also am pretty sure I watched some of the lunar walk at home,  and what might have happened is that I saw the first part at school and the rest at home, having been allowed to go home early.  Even staying at school all afternoon, I might have caught the tail end at home.  Or did they allow us to go home when there was some uncertainty, I think, as to when they would leave the module?  I have an idea that someone complained about how long it was taking for them to get out, but was that my Mum or a nun?  (I'm leaning towards Mum.) 

There are two people from my class that year that I could probably track down.  One was a best friend that I lost all contact with  from the age of perhaps 16 or 17.  He went to a different high school and (so I was told by the other person I could probably contact, as I met her again 10 or 15 years ago) had become a bit of a wannabe, or actual, Lothario as a teenager.  People change, obviously; but I was pretty much the opposite, so it may have a case of a hormonally induced loss of friendship even if I had seen him much as a teenager.

So, this post has gone off a bit more personal than intended!

Anyway, I am pleased to see how much attention the anniversary did eventually attract.  A pity Armstrong himself didn't live to see it.  

Modern technology should address the memory uncertainties I discuss here.  Any kid watching today would probably have at least some selfies showing him or her watching it.  That's at least one advantage of the way technology has evolved that is perhaps under-appreciated.

Update:   I was somewhat surprised to hear a man on ABC News saying that he was in Britain, working on a satellite project, at the time of the moon walk, and despite his great interest, was asleep at the time of the moon walk because it happened there in the "middle of the night" (yes, I checked - started just before 4 am) and he thinks the BBC has closed for the night and didn't carry any live telecast anyway!    I had sort of forgotten about TV ending overnight and, even on this occasion, apparently refusing to break that rule.   I guess that would not have seemed odd at that time if it had happened similarly in Australia, but the 24 news cycle - and even 24 sport -  we have all become used to now makes it seem a very antiquated world.

Update 2:   going back to the topic of the fallibility of memory, I remember being particularly amused by Spike Milligan, in one of his WW2 memoires, talking about a particular incident in which he couldn't remember a detail, leading him to ring his old mate who had a completely different recollection of the incident in total.  Spike then joked about what this might mean for the real history behind some of the Bible, giving a comedic example.   That did strike me as a good point, and that one should be cautious about recollections, be they your own or someone else's.   In fact, it started to bother me that scepticism of their own memories is not very common amongst people, when psychological studies, and incidents like Milligan's, teach us that we should be.    


Saturday, July 20, 2019

A great Boris explanation

Turns out I was way more accurate than I realised when I opined here that Boris Johnson seemed to have the same rank political opportunism of Tony Abbott.  As explained in detail in this great read from New York Review of Books, Boris was very equivocal on the matter of whether he would support Brexit or not, finally settling on the pro side almost by accident (despite having played a key role in writing the often inaccurate tabloid level "the EU is bureaucracy gone mad" press stories for years):
To grasp how Johnson’s akratic character has brought his country to a state approaching anarchy, it is necessary to return to the days immediately before February 21, 2016, when he announced to an expectant throng of journalists that he would support the Leave campaign. This was a crucial moment—polls have since shown that, in what turned out to be a very close-run referendum, Boris, as the mayor of London had branded himself,2 had a greater influence on voters than anyone else. “Character is destiny, said the Greeks, and I agree,” writes Johnson in The Churchill Factor, his 2014 book about Winston Churchill, which carries the telling subtitle “How One Man Made History.”3 While the book shows Johnson to be a true believer in the Great Man theory of history, his own moment of destiny plays it out as farce, the fate of a nation turning not on Churchillian resolution but on Johnsonian indecision. For Johnson was, in his own words, “veering all over the place like a shopping trolley.” On Saturday, February 20, he texted Prime Minister David Cameron to say he was going to advocate for Brexit. A few hours later, he texted again to say that he might change his mind and back Remain.

Sometime between then and the following day, he wrote at least two different columns for the Daily Telegraph—his deadline was looming, so he wrote one passionately arguing for Leave and one arguing that the cost of Brexit would be too high. (Asked once if he had any convictions, Johnson replied, “Only one—for speeding…”) Then, early on Sunday evening, he texted Cameron to say that he was about to announce irrevocably that he was backing Leave. But, as Cameron told his communications director, Craig Oliver, at the time, Johnson added two remarkable things. One was that “he doesn’t expect to win, believing Brexit will be ‘crushed.’” The other was staggering: “‘He actually said he thought we could leave and still have a seat on the European Council—still making decisions.’”4

The expectation—perhaps the hope—of defeat is telling. Johnson’s anti-EU rhetoric was always a Punch and Judy show, and without the EU to play Judy, the show would be over. But the belief that Britain would keep its seat on the European Council (which consists of the leaders of each member state and makes most of the EU’s big political decisions), even if it left the EU, is mind-melting. Not only was Johnson unconvinced that he was taking the right side on one of the most important questions his country has faced since World War II, but he was unaware of the most basic consequence of Brexit. Britain had joined the Common Market, as it was then called, in 1973 precisely because it was being profoundly affected by decisions made in Brussels and was therefore better off having an equal say in those decisions. Johnson’s belief that Britain would continue to have a seat at the European table after Brexit suggested a profound ignorance not just of his country’s future but of its entire postwar past.

This ignorance is not stupidity—Johnson is genuinely clever and, as his fictional alter ego Barlow shows, quite self-aware. It is the studied carelessness affected by a large part of the English upper class whose manners and attitudes Johnson—in reality the product of a rather bohemian bourgeois background—thoroughly absorbed. Consequences are for the little people, seriousness for those who are paid to clean up the mess.
 Incredibly, Asian Latham Jason seems to think this is the kind of flim flam person who will make a good Prime Minister.

My rules for life (updated, again)

This is proving a slow process.  My book based on this will be out by 2030, at this rate.

Attentive readers (ha!) will remember I am up to 4, but something occurred to me today that is worthy of being rule 5.  The first four:

1.  Always carry a clean, ironed handkerchief in your pocket.  Always.
2.  Never buy into timeshare apartments or holiday schemes.
3.  If you have a choice, buy the washing machine with a 15 minute "fast wash" option.
4.  Always buy reverseable belts. (You know, usually black on one side and brown on the other.)

And now, number 5:

5.  The best souvenir when on a good holiday is a distinctive cup or mug, which is to be used semi-regularly on your return.  (Don't get in the rut of using the same mug daily for years - you need to rotate through all of them.)  Use will prompt good memories and make you happier.  

[My rabbit patterned cup from Okunoshima, and my mug with Julia Gillard's face on it from Canberra, both make me happy.]