As explained at Real Climate, even some of the first climate models, when properly assessed (which means, taking into account when they got emissions and some other forcings wrong - which is not something you can blame them for) they have been pretty accurate.
Actually, I find the lengthy Twitter thread explanation by co-author Zeke Hausfather, which starts here, is better than the Real Climate post at explaining what they did.
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Quick takes
* I think the new James Bond trailer looks good. And I still think the new Q looks like they really had Richard Ayoade in mind, but the producers were worried that his fans would just fall about laughing for 5 minutes as soon as he appeared on screen.
* Richard E Grant is in the new Star Wars film and says its fantastic. All actors in these films say that, though, don't they? Is it possible that they have made a Star Wars film that doesn't include a big, new supa-dupa planet killing version of the Death Star? Will they have sorted out the unsatisfactory explanations of the nature of the Force? Gee, I'm sounding like I'm over Star Wars; but no, I will still likely see this one.
* What the heck? Just days after I say I might move to an OPPO phone because I like a pop up selfie cam, there's news that my current brand Motorola has just brought out a mid-range phone with the same feature (and same memory):
* Richard E Grant is in the new Star Wars film and says its fantastic. All actors in these films say that, though, don't they? Is it possible that they have made a Star Wars film that doesn't include a big, new supa-dupa planet killing version of the Death Star? Will they have sorted out the unsatisfactory explanations of the nature of the Force? Gee, I'm sounding like I'm over Star Wars; but no, I will still likely see this one.
* What the heck? Just days after I say I might move to an OPPO phone because I like a pop up selfie cam, there's news that my current brand Motorola has just brought out a mid-range phone with the same feature (and same memory):
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Big if true
Sabine Hossenfelder has a couple of good posts up - one generally explaining "dark energy", and a follow up post about a paper that has just come out which says that one key measurement that was taken to prove the acceleration of the expansion of the universe is wrong, and hence dark energy doesn't exist. The local movement of the relevant galaxies may explain the redshift of the light from certain supernovae.
This is, potentially, really big news. At least if you're an astrophysicist, or general observer of big science ideas.
This is, potentially, really big news. At least if you're an astrophysicist, or general observer of big science ideas.
He hates government spending, until it's directed towards his pocket (or at least, his workplace)
Chris Berg announces government funding for yet more of RMIT make-work for economists who can't get their heads on ABC TV much anymore, and look who's part of it:
The research:
Now send me $200,000 (not in Bitcoin, thanks), and you're $223,540 ahead.
Update: I have altered the heading to the post, because I don't know how such research funding works. I would presume it may involve economics minions (post grad students?) being paid to do some work for the report, and travel or some such, so I don't know if the troika personally make money from it.
At Announcement
- Funding: $423,540.00
-
Investigators:
- Prof Jason Potts (CI)
- Prof Sinclair Davidson (CI)
- Dr Christopher Berg (CI)
-
Organisations:
- RMIT University
The research:
Public Finance and Cryptocurrencies. This project aims to analyse the impact of cryptocurrency technology on taxation and the provision of public goods in Australia. The project will identify the historical relationship between money technologies and public finance, examine the impact of cryptocurrencies in relation to the modern state, and investigate the potential of utilising cryptocurrencies in the provision of public goods. The outcomes of the research will expand theoretical and practical understanding of public finance in a world of cryptocurrencies. The project findings will provide guidance to Australian and international policymakers to prepare for potential disruptions to taxation and public goods provision.Hey, Federal government, I can tell you what the conclusions of this troika will be before you pay a cent:
* Cryptocurrencies are great, cool, disruptive things and we really like them (because they have the potential to make governments collecting tax even harder);
* Our government should lead the way in facilitating the adoption of cryptocurrencies as soon as possible, because that way, it makes our waffly research look important.
Now send me $200,000 (not in Bitcoin, thanks), and you're $223,540 ahead.
Update: I have altered the heading to the post, because I don't know how such research funding works. I would presume it may involve economics minions (post grad students?) being paid to do some work for the report, and travel or some such, so I don't know if the troika personally make money from it.
What other world leaders have to put up with...
Look, honestly: if Macron and Merkel took Trump to a side room, and he was later found to have "fallen" out of its fifth floor window, the rest of the European leaders would say "Who pushed him? More to the point, who cares?"
Tuesday, December 03, 2019
The kinda depressing "big picture"
If this graph in this tweet is correct:
what's been happening is that wind, solar and other renewables have only been replacing another source of emissions free power - nuclear.
That would help explain why, despite big deployments of non-nulcear clean energy, emissions are not going down.
That we have to junk coal as a priority is obvious.
That would help explain why, despite big deployments of non-nulcear clean energy, emissions are not going down.
That we have to junk coal as a priority is obvious.
Well, that's weird
I don't know that I trust Hot Air contributor Jazz Shaw on anything much, but he has an interest in UFOs and occasionally talks about the Navy "tic tak" videos that have everyone puzzled.
He's interviewed a young physicist (? not sure that's right, given what follows) before about UFOs, but I hadn't read it.
Today, he's put up a post wherein said scientist (Deep Prasad) has explained that earlier this year he had an alien/otherworldly visitation (of sorts). They were trying to blast a lot of information into his brain, apparently. (Fortunately for Deep, anal probe was avoided. They seem to have gone out of fashion now as part of UFO alien abduction/visitation lore.)
You can read about it here, at Hot Air.
It puts me in mind of the sort of experiences Philip K Dick claimed to have had. But unlike Dick, I would hope Deep is not a massive drug user.
I'm not sure about him, nonetheless. Shaw links to a 2014 article in a University of Toronto paper in which they asked whether "first year undergrad" - on an electrical engineering course - Prasad "could be the next Einstein". But the big idea he discusses is - generating electricity from using your keyboard. This does not sound promising...
He's interviewed a young physicist (? not sure that's right, given what follows) before about UFOs, but I hadn't read it.
Today, he's put up a post wherein said scientist (Deep Prasad) has explained that earlier this year he had an alien/otherworldly visitation (of sorts). They were trying to blast a lot of information into his brain, apparently. (Fortunately for Deep, anal probe was avoided. They seem to have gone out of fashion now as part of UFO alien abduction/visitation lore.)
You can read about it here, at Hot Air.
It puts me in mind of the sort of experiences Philip K Dick claimed to have had. But unlike Dick, I would hope Deep is not a massive drug user.
I'm not sure about him, nonetheless. Shaw links to a 2014 article in a University of Toronto paper in which they asked whether "first year undergrad" - on an electrical engineering course - Prasad "could be the next Einstein". But the big idea he discusses is - generating electricity from using your keyboard. This does not sound promising...
Gopnik on James
Oh - Adam Gopnik's column on Clive James is very interesting (he knew him) and well written.
The irony
To be honest, I think the White House Christmas decorations are at least better this year than the blood red theme that Melania chose last year (and which many mocked as resembling something from the Overlook Hotel):
But the funniest thing in the White House produced video (which gives the impression Melania personally sets this all up) is the bit where it shows a tree decoration reading "Be Best".
That the wife of the appallingly "Be Worst" tweeting President should have chosen that as a theme for her "everyone, be nice to each other" campaign is just irony run amok.
But the funniest thing in the White House produced video (which gives the impression Melania personally sets this all up) is the bit where it shows a tree decoration reading "Be Best".
That the wife of the appallingly "Be Worst" tweeting President should have chosen that as a theme for her "everyone, be nice to each other" campaign is just irony run amok.
Sordid
Well, this is a headline you don't see every day:
War and pissoirs: how the urinals of Paris helped beat the Nazis
Unfortunately, most of the article is about how the Paris "pissoirs" came to be installed and then widely used by men for illicit sexual encounters. I find that very surprising, given that I would have thought that the open air design of these things, whereby you can see who and how many are using the facility, would have meant that this protected them from such use.
But there you go.
It is interesting that the opening anecdote is this:
And on the straight sex scandal side, this recent one shows another Trump supporting Republican with low grade morals:
War and pissoirs: how the urinals of Paris helped beat the Nazis
Unfortunately, most of the article is about how the Paris "pissoirs" came to be installed and then widely used by men for illicit sexual encounters. I find that very surprising, given that I would have thought that the open air design of these things, whereby you can see who and how many are using the facility, would have meant that this protected them from such use.
But there you go.
It is interesting that the opening anecdote is this:
At 11pm on 6 December 1876, policemen patrolling the Champs-Élysées discovered a well-to-do bourgeois in a public toilet, engaged in what they described as “indecent exposure” with an 18-year-old labourer. The older man, it turned out, was the prominent Catholic politician Eugène de Germiny, a bastion of the reactionary right who railed against the government’s secular tendencies and advocated a society based on family, religion and a return to monarchy.That put in mind of certain high profile "family values" Republicans in America caught out in toilets or with male staff over the years.
The press immediately called out Germiny’s double standards. Despite his protests – he claimed his adventure was merely “research” – he became a magnet for satire, his political opponents making much of his hypocrisy. The writer Gustav Flaubert described the scandal as a “comfort that encourages the will to live”. Germiny was sent to jail and went into exile on release.
And on the straight sex scandal side, this recent one shows another Trump supporting Republican with low grade morals:
Mr. Hunter is accused of spending more than $200,000 [of campaign funds] on personal expenses. The indictment, which was released last year, detailed spending on lavish family vacations to Hawaii and foreign countries, large bar tabs, and grocery purchases for his family.Mr. Hunter was also accused of using campaign dollars to fund several extramarital affairs between 2010 and 2016, including one with a member of his staff. Prosecutors also alleged that the congressman, a Republican elected to represent a Southern California district in 2008, attempted to pass off some of those expenses as charitable contributions to veterans.Until Monday, Mr. Hunter had remained steadfast that he was innocent of the charges, at one point calling it a “deep state” conspiracy. Despite the allegations, Mr. Hunter won re-election to his seat in November 2018.
Monday, December 02, 2019
On a Polish question
A couple of links for a friend, if he happens to visit, and put here as a result of a conversation on Saturday night:
And in The Atlantic:
Remarkable phones
I've been very happy with my Moto phone, but am very tempted to buy an OPPO phone when I can next justify an upgrade.
I convinced my son to buy the Reno 2Z at JB Hi Fi yesterday. As usual, I am blown away by the increasing sophistication of newer phones in the mid range market. And this phone was on sale for (I think) $455 - when I had only been looking at it recently at its normal price of $599. (In fact, looking online, this does not seem to be a nation wide catalogue sale price - do JB Hi Fi do local store sales too?)
The specifications for the phone are remarkable - especially at under $500.
6.5" AMOLED 1080 x 2340 screen
128GB storage
8GB RAM
16MP front facing camera
48MP/f1.7 + 8MP/f2.2 + 2MP/f2.4 + 2MP/f2.4 rear cameras
Bluetooth v4.2
4000mAh battery + VOOC 3.0
Hidden Fingerprint Unlock 3.0
And I really like the pop up selfie camera, which avoids the whole issue of a camera lens cut out at the edge of a screen. (I presume people get used to that, but it still seems an annoying feature of new phones to me.)
Of course, I might be doing my part to support a worrying wannabe world dominating nation by going for a Chinese brand over a Korean or Taiwanese one - but they make such cool stuff.
I convinced my son to buy the Reno 2Z at JB Hi Fi yesterday. As usual, I am blown away by the increasing sophistication of newer phones in the mid range market. And this phone was on sale for (I think) $455 - when I had only been looking at it recently at its normal price of $599. (In fact, looking online, this does not seem to be a nation wide catalogue sale price - do JB Hi Fi do local store sales too?)
The specifications for the phone are remarkable - especially at under $500.
6.5" AMOLED 1080 x 2340 screen
128GB storage
8GB RAM
16MP front facing camera
48MP/f1.7 + 8MP/f2.2 + 2MP/f2.4 + 2MP/f2.4 rear cameras
Bluetooth v4.2
4000mAh battery + VOOC 3.0
Hidden Fingerprint Unlock 3.0
And I really like the pop up selfie camera, which avoids the whole issue of a camera lens cut out at the edge of a screen. (I presume people get used to that, but it still seems an annoying feature of new phones to me.)
Of course, I might be doing my part to support a worrying wannabe world dominating nation by going for a Chinese brand over a Korean or Taiwanese one - but they make such cool stuff.
Someone thinks Boris is not doing so well...
A really vicious take on Boris Johnson's campaign performance from someone writing (where else?) in The Guardian:
...with Boris Johnson we are in the political wild west. A one-man amoral no-go zone, whose prime motivation is his own survival and who can only talk in staccato bursts of white noise – an incoherent stream of unconsciousness designed to run down the clock in any public appearance.I must say, from the other side of the world, it is very hard to see why he is as successful as he is in Britain. It would be a bit akin to, I don't know, some eccentric like Bob Katter being taken seriously as Prime Minister material here.
Quantity theory breaks down with Johnson. The longer the election campaign goes on, the more bloated and pneumatic he becomes. Yet the more space he inhabits, the more distant he seems. Day by day, there is less to him than meets the eye. He neither looks like a prime minister, nor sounds like one.
Johnson used to at least be able to give a passable imitation of being Boris Johnson. Now he can’t even manage that. The gags and the mannerisms that used to be his calling card, now just fall flat. A one-trick pony whose one trick everyone knows. The surface has been stripped bare to reveal a core of molten need. Someone who craves attention and fears he wouldn’t exist without it. Someone whose narcissism leaves him devoid of empathy. Incapable of either giving or receiving love.
A recent daily visitor
It's been cute finding a wallaby having a rest at the side or front of our suburban house each recent morning, but it does cause the dog to go berserk:
By the way - that side of the house is a mess, but it can't seen from the street, and we have no reason to go there either. Still, yeah, it should be cleaned up.
By the way - that side of the house is a mess, but it can't seen from the street, and we have no reason to go there either. Still, yeah, it should be cleaned up.
Friday, November 29, 2019
Appeal...
Against my expectations, a New South Wales court has found negligence proved in the class action against the operators of Wivenhoe dam in the 2011 floods.
Of course, I don't know the exact detail of the evidence presented, but what always seemed fishy to me was the complexity of modelling, compiled from overseas, to show what level of flooding would have happened following different release patterns.
From memory, the modelling didn't even show that earlier releases would have guaranteed no flooding, just reduced heights. If so, it should not be as if every house flooded deserves compensation - it should only be those in which flooding reached above the level that would have happened under the best scenario. But maybe the judgement incorporates that?
I will be curious to see whether the litigants end up happy with the final results, or indeed, whether there might be an appeal. The problem is, with an election looming, State Labor probably does not want to appear to be the one holding up "justice", even if there is doubt about the weighting given to conflicting expert evidence.
Update: I wrote (surprisingly extensively!) about the details of flood levels discussed at the inquiry into the dam operation back in 2012. It should be clear from that why I was extremely dubious of a court win on the negligence case.
Of course, I don't know the exact detail of the evidence presented, but what always seemed fishy to me was the complexity of modelling, compiled from overseas, to show what level of flooding would have happened following different release patterns.
From memory, the modelling didn't even show that earlier releases would have guaranteed no flooding, just reduced heights. If so, it should not be as if every house flooded deserves compensation - it should only be those in which flooding reached above the level that would have happened under the best scenario. But maybe the judgement incorporates that?
I will be curious to see whether the litigants end up happy with the final results, or indeed, whether there might be an appeal. The problem is, with an election looming, State Labor probably does not want to appear to be the one holding up "justice", even if there is doubt about the weighting given to conflicting expert evidence.
Update: I wrote (surprisingly extensively!) about the details of flood levels discussed at the inquiry into the dam operation back in 2012. It should be clear from that why I was extremely dubious of a court win on the negligence case.
Fast food review
It's been a long time since I tried a Hungry Jacks burger, but I wanted to give them a go with their fake meat burger. I thought I had read that the patty was made by Beyond Burger, but I see from Lifehacker that (in Australia at least) it's by an Australian start up. Cool.
So I had it last night.
First - I think it's amusing marketing (which probably causes some irritation to conservatives) that they have called it the Rebel Whopper. Yeah - us real rebels are now the one disdaining meat [at least once a week, anyway.:)] It was also at the very top of the drive through order board, indicating either that there is high demand for it, or the company is trying to generate high demand.
Second: I had the Rebel Whopper Cheese. No need to go completely hair shirt just because I'm not eating meat on my burger.
Thirdly: the taste - really good, actually. Sure, if you think about the texture too much, it is softer than a beef burger, but the flavour is very similar. There was a lot of some creamy sort of sauce, but I didn't mind that.
Fourth: even the chips seemed nicer than what I remember from HJ's. Pretty salty, but nice texture and less fatty than McD's french fries.
Fifth: the price - $11.70 for the medium meal. Compares very well with the golden arches.
I will buy one again. I liked it.
So I had it last night.
First - I think it's amusing marketing (which probably causes some irritation to conservatives) that they have called it the Rebel Whopper. Yeah - us real rebels are now the one disdaining meat [at least once a week, anyway.:)] It was also at the very top of the drive through order board, indicating either that there is high demand for it, or the company is trying to generate high demand.
Second: I had the Rebel Whopper Cheese. No need to go completely hair shirt just because I'm not eating meat on my burger.
Thirdly: the taste - really good, actually. Sure, if you think about the texture too much, it is softer than a beef burger, but the flavour is very similar. There was a lot of some creamy sort of sauce, but I didn't mind that.
Fourth: even the chips seemed nicer than what I remember from HJ's. Pretty salty, but nice texture and less fatty than McD's french fries.
Fifth: the price - $11.70 for the medium meal. Compares very well with the golden arches.
I will buy one again. I liked it.
Thursday, November 28, 2019
So this is what has become of the White House press corps under Trump...
Wow:
"TruNews" has a person in the White House press corps. Completely normal times, hey?
(It would be rather like Graeme Bird getting press corps credentials. And no - Graeme, I can and will still delete your comments at will, even if I mention you in a post.)
(It would be rather like Graeme Bird getting press corps credentials. And no - Graeme, I can and will still delete your comments at will, even if I mention you in a post.)
Can actual academics talk about this?
Re the Bruce Pascoe/ "Dark Emu" fight between Andrew Bolt and Leftists attacking Bolt's attack:
* Andrew Bolt can, obviously, be a terribly sloppy and careless (not to mention stupid) polemicist, and being (more or less) on his side on any issue should give anyone sensible pause for concern.
* That said, those on the liberal Left are clearing responding reflexively against him in defence of a book that is seen as supportive of aboriginal rights;
* I have tried finding detailed reviews of Pascoe's book from when it first came out, but they are few and far between, and as far as I can tell, nearly all by people who are not experts in this field but are broadly sympathetic to the aim of improving cultural perceptions of the aboriginal inhabitants at the time of colonisation. Even so, there does seem an admission in them that Pascoe's claim might not be "fully proved", or such like, while still praising the enterprise overall. Certainly, this has been enough to enable the book to be endorsed by the soft Left within the education departments of most States.
* I am suspicious that there are academics out there who would be very critical of some of Pascoe's interpretations of historical reports, but they are probably reluctant to "stir the pot" and find it far more convenient and politically correct within the circles they work to remain silent on the matter.
* My impression, which I almost hate to admit, is that the Bolt take on the matter is likely more correct than those who think the book a brilliant work of valid revisionism. I think it is very likely that it is really a political book based on scant evidence that hasn't been discussed much before only because it is quite properly considered scant and unreliable evidence by real academics who are choosing to remain silent.
That's my current take on it all, anyway.
* Andrew Bolt can, obviously, be a terribly sloppy and careless (not to mention stupid) polemicist, and being (more or less) on his side on any issue should give anyone sensible pause for concern.
* That said, those on the liberal Left are clearing responding reflexively against him in defence of a book that is seen as supportive of aboriginal rights;
* I have tried finding detailed reviews of Pascoe's book from when it first came out, but they are few and far between, and as far as I can tell, nearly all by people who are not experts in this field but are broadly sympathetic to the aim of improving cultural perceptions of the aboriginal inhabitants at the time of colonisation. Even so, there does seem an admission in them that Pascoe's claim might not be "fully proved", or such like, while still praising the enterprise overall. Certainly, this has been enough to enable the book to be endorsed by the soft Left within the education departments of most States.
* I am suspicious that there are academics out there who would be very critical of some of Pascoe's interpretations of historical reports, but they are probably reluctant to "stir the pot" and find it far more convenient and politically correct within the circles they work to remain silent on the matter.
* My impression, which I almost hate to admit, is that the Bolt take on the matter is likely more correct than those who think the book a brilliant work of valid revisionism. I think it is very likely that it is really a political book based on scant evidence that hasn't been discussed much before only because it is quite properly considered scant and unreliable evidence by real academics who are choosing to remain silent.
That's my current take on it all, anyway.
What "you can't believe the modelling" looks like
Tamino at Open Mind has done an updated bit of graphing, and while it looks a lot like what Gavin Schmidt does from time to time, it's worth publicising anyway:
Someone in comments notes that Ross McKitrick has done a similar thing, but it's not as good as it ignoring coverage bias with HadCRUT. Yet, when you look at his graphing, it still indicates a relentless climb, just lower in the "pink" band. Which makes his scepticism look kinda pointless...
I took the data for global average temperature from climate model simulations in the CMIP5 archive; those are computer models used in the latest IPCC report. I used only those models with the “RCP4.5” emissions scenario (a middle-of-the-road choice). I then aligned them all so their average value was zero during the 1961-1990 “baseline” period. Finally, I calculated yearly averages for each of the 108 models included.
That enables me to compute the “multi-model mean,” the average of all the models at each moment of time. Also at each moment of time, I computed the standard deviation of the model values and recorded the highest and lowest model values (which can be different models at different times).Now I can graph the multi-model mean over time as a thick red line, together with a yellow outermost envelope showing the range from highest to lowest, a tan-colored middle range the limits of the 2-sigma range (about 95% of the models) and a pink band the 1-sigma range (about 2/3 of the models).And I can also plot actual observed global temperature from NASA (yearly averages using the same 1961-1990 baseline) as a black line:
In other obituary news
Sir Jonathan Miller, the writer, theatre and opera director, and member of the Beyond the Fringe comedy team, has died at the age of 85.I thought Miller gave one of the funniest Parkinson interviews I ever saw, and his series The Body in Question was just terrific viewing. I'm not sure that I saw another series referred to in his Guardian obituary - Madness - if I did it obviously did not leave the same memory traces as did his first series.
In a statement his family said Miller died “peacefully at home following a long battle with Alzheimer’s”.
In any event, a very clever and witty man.
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