Watching the goal posts shift

And this laughable Trump spin on how he's now being thanked for social isolation bringing families together!:

And over at Catallaxy, I continue to be amused at how keyboard warriors of the Right are bravely offering the sacrifice of anyone over 70 in the interests of keeping the economy ticking.   (Someone wittily tweeted last week that they wouldn't have guessed that it would be the conservative Right that would end up endorsing the social system of Logan's Run.)

And look at the pathetic goal post shifting that is going on.   CL posts with strong endorsement a Roger Kimball article (dated 28 March) which encapsulates the view that it's still an over-reaction, this economic shutdown.  Yet towards the end, he has to do some fessing up:

Over the past few weeks, I have been predicting a modest fatality rate from COVID-19. I began by predicting no more than a couple of hundred deaths and then upped my prediction to a 1,000-1,200. As of today, the number of deaths attributed to the virus is just over 2,000. So I was wrong about that. 

He then argues that maybe he wasn't really wrong - most of these deaths are old people who had other conditions.  [Groan]. 

But look at the basic goalpost shifting  -  his initial prediction was out by a factor of 10  - as of 28 March.    The number of deaths today? - close enough to 3,000.  [Update - over 3,000 now, according to the Worldometer count, which seems to update faster than WHO or other sites and is quoted by Kimball himself.]

At what point will these dimwits admit that their initial predictions were so embarrassingly wrong, people should ignore any and every thing they ever say about risk and science again?   At the "I was out by a factor of 100" stage? 1,000?   We will see.

Update:  Via The Onion, this story headline fits perfectly with a common view on the wingnut, Trump defending Right at Catallaxy and elsewhere:

Further downgrading warranted

I recently rubbished conservative Catholic Trump excuser Gray Connolly for his bad takes on many topics.

Today, I noticed that he recently went up to another level on the "pathetic" scale.  This is how it went:

Connolly went on to challenge Dale to put up the video, and he did.    There is no laughter to be heard, from journalists or otherwise.    

Connolly then, unbelievably, tweets this:

And then:

What an arrogant schmuck!

As someone says following:

And this:

Others point out that, even if you were to believe Trump was "joking" - that would be appalling in its own way.

Connolly is just a Trump excusing fool.  No doubt about it.

Go right ahead, libertarians

I've probably mentioned Topher Field only once before - the guy who has seemingly been funded (I would have to suspect by someone like Gina Rinehart via the IPA) to try to become a social media star running libertarian, anti-government, anti-regulation and "let's not worry about the environment" lines.   I see from his Youtube channel that he's been at it for more than 10 years, but it would seem hard to say "successfully" when the number of views he gets for a video now looks to be about a quarter (around 5,000) compared to what he used to get.  He has also bulked up - he looks (and sounds, now that I think of it) like a version of Benedict Cumberbatch who has let himself go even before he hit middle age.   

I find him very easy to ignore, but Sinclair Davidson still thinks he's worth listening to, apparently, and has posted his latest video in which Field fatuously offers to be infected with Covid-19, so as to help increase the herd immunity that will ultimately mean we can relax concerns about the virus.

Hey, given that libertarians are a serious menace to the future of the entire planet, who am I to object?  Is it too mean to say that I only wish more libertarians would give it a go? 

The broader point I want to make is that the libertarian line is to be upset that the government is taking economically harmful action when the data is not clear enough as to know with certainty how bad the problem really is.   This is very consistent with their malleable line on climate change - they first tried to convince everyone it was not happening at all, then moved towards conceding it might be happening but arguing you can afford to wait, until you know for sure how bad it is.  (Maybe it's even pretty good, some still try to argue.)

What they do not get, or wilfully ignore, is that the nature of some problems is that if you wait, there is no undoing the damage.   They are prepared to gamble on dire harm to the future of humanity because they value continuing economic growth so highly they try to convince everyone else to ignore well founded, scientifically based warnings that are dire for both the health of individuals and long term economic prospects of an entire planet.

In other words, they are foolish and try to spread their foolishness.   It's good they can't get their head on TV much lately.   Keep them in their internet enclaves, where they mainly just dumb each other down.

Speaking of tone deaf...

Chris Uhlmann, who I never considered the sharpest mind in journalism, was widely mocked on Twitter last week for praising himself for...not praising himself and his network about its Covid-19 coverage.  (He was ineptly having a go at his former ABC colleagues who were happy to see they were doing very well in internet hits for their coverage.  I think 7.30 might be rating well too, but I'm not sure.  Why he should resent the ABC doing simple self promotion and taking pride in the credibility with which it is perceived when it is under constant threat of more defunding under the current government, I have no idea.)

And today he is at it again:

It seems he positively wants to help prompt the defunding of the ABC.   As someone says in a follow up tweet:

Intense narcissism means having no comprehension of the phrase "tone deaf"

Must...post..about...something...else...

Let's get trivial, in this time of great upheaval, caused not by rioting in the streets, but people being stuck in their bedrooms.  I never expected the almost-end-of-Western-hegemony* to be quite like this.  But back to the trivial:

*  I can't decide which of these is the better "toilet care" product:

or

I've tried both.  Just can't make up my mind....

*  Watched the well reviewed (actually, I think overly well reviewed) Chinese movie Shadow on Netflix last night.   It's one of the most arthouse-y Chinese myth-historical martial arts-ish movies I've ever seen (not that I have seen many).   On the upside, it does have lovely, eye catching directorial compositions shot in greyscale (except for skin and blood), an argument conducted by zither (honestly), and an arcane plot which seems very unclear at first but does become more comprehensible as it goes on.  A lot of money spent on costumes and (perhaps) the very silly weaponry which shows up unexpectedly in the climatic fight.   Overall, it kept my attention and I would say I enjoyed it for its Chinese peculiarities as well as its looks.

I suggested to my son (who was less impressed with the film than I was - but he watched to the end) that the fist and palm salute as executed in the film does look pretty cool, and I was hoping that he would acknowledge my requests to do some chore or other around the house in that manner, for the next few days at least.   He has not complied.    But it's good for our current situation, no?

*  Good to know [sarc] that Kimmy has got his priorities right:

SEOUL: North Korea fired what appeared to be two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast on Sunday (Mar 29), the fourthsuchlaunch this month

*  It's always hard to tell how much of Richard Ayoade's persona on TV is a kind of performance art, but I thought he was entertaining and somewhat charming in this recent chat show appearance.   (I've never heard of this Norwegian host before, but I see he has been around a long time):



By the way, the grey haired guy sitting in on that chat show is Boris Johnson's Dad - I haven't watched the clip of the interview with him yet, but it is on the Youtube channel as well.

*  I am exaggerating to amuse myself.  I hope.

About those Dr Birx comments

So, that Deborah Birx gave some surprisingly Trumpian sounding "I wish the media would stop scaring everyone without foundation" comments about Covid-19 (and hospitals being all A-OK with plenty of ventilators), which I thought sounded suss.

And here on Twitter is a carefully worded critique (in a thread starting here) of what she said, by one of the epidemiologists whose work she was apparently referencing, which indicates that scepticism of her reassurances is quite justified.

Will the conservative media, and Catallaxy fools, who immediately celebrated her as a realist hero tramping all over the liberal media, ever bother reading Lipsitch's comments?   I doubt it.

Update:   Yes, no one sensible thinks she has credibility any more.

More tweets worth noting

Yes, I had been intending to make the same point.  Steve Kates, for example, does not believe that Y2K was a serious software issue on which lots of time, effort and money was necessarily expended to ensure a crisis didn't happen.

Oh, and now that I look, I see that CL is already claiming this, because a UK expert is saying that the deaths in total could be on the low side because of the tough lockdown the country has been prepared to enforce.

CL, who craps on routinely about how shameful it is that too many old people end up in nursing homes (instead of at home, presumably being cared for by all the women he resents for having a job instead of being a housewife) has come out all in favour of the the Trumpian/conservative line "you know, these old people were going to die anyway, let's not worry too much about it":

Then there are my fellow Catholics, a number of whom seem to believe the right to life – which is the right not to be killed – means no-one can be “allowed” to die at any cost. This is both childish and theological nonsense. Society and the economy cannot be “shut down.” This isn’t a Ferris wheel. If that’s the putative solution, then there is no current “solution” – except patience, charity, cleanliness and protection of the vulnerable. That is the best we can do. 

The Trump supporting conservative (especially a Catholic one) is the most ridiculous, inconsistent, morally offensive and intellectually vacuous thing I have ever seen in my lifetime.

Next: 

Yes, been seen at Catallaxy, too.

I trust Steve Kates is pleased that Trump gives out press credentials to such outlets.  (He is Jewish, apparently.   And living proof that you can't stereotype all Jews as intellectually sharp.)

Yes, I think this is likely, too.

Finally!

So, the Queensland government finally does what I have been saying they should:

Queensland schools will be 'student-free' from next week amid coronavirus pandemic, Premier announces

...The Premier said the decision to make schools student-free from Monday would give teachers a chance to prepare learning materials and get training in online teaching.

 And how about this for an unfortunate Coronavirus situation:

A Peruvian hostel full of international travellers, including at least one Australian, has been put under strict lockdown for up to three months after two guests tested positive for coronavirus.

The street surrounding the Pariwana Hostel in Cusco has been barricaded by local authorities, while the 146 guests and staff were informed that they could face up to 10 years in prison if they leave the property while the quarantine orders are in place.

Look at the accommodation they are stuck in:

Is Mark self isolating with a few bottles of red, or something?

How does Latham's tweet make any sense at all?:

I am amused, however, by one of the tweets following which notes that at least he's found his place in One Neuron.

How true

Today's thoughts on you-know-what (and sorry if my talking about schools is getting tedious)

*  I thought that Scott Morrison last night was sounding reasonably good in his press conference of new restrictions, with little smirking to be seen;  but it sort of fell apart yet again when it came to how he can't make "schools to remain open" sound logically consistent with things like "we are so worried about people being too close together in a food court, they can't sit down in one."   

I don't care how many times Homer tells me in comments that his wife works at some (very unique, I reckon) school in which no teachers are scared of catching it from a student, and they all have no problem keeping 1.5m away from every single student every single minute of the day:   my daughter tells me student numbers at her high school are down to less than half anyway, and the teachers that are turning up (some are not!) aren't really trying to teach those students who are there.    I got a letter today from the school saying "yeah, we know this is really hard, but we aren't set up for online teaching, and the Year 12 assessment times are set in concrete and just have to start going ahead next week anyway.   Good luck everybody!". 

My brain does not understand why this is so difficult to deal with:   an abrupt move to students learning at home is not going to be a success, so just close at least all high schools for a month now (adding two weeks to the Easter holiday) to let the schools work out how best to deal with "at home" schooling, and whether it is really needed after after a month at all.   (It probably won't be, is my guess.)  The date for assessments are pushed out, and students get two weeks less holiday later in the year.  

If Victoria can manage this, why can't other states?  There are presumably administrative reasons of which I am unaware, but this situation requires a new found flexibility, surely.

I do think that Morrison talking as if once you close a school down, for 2 weeks extra, you can never recover from it for the rest of the year (not to mention his suggestion that they might stay closed for 6 months), shows a remarkable lack of flexibility.

As for primary schools:  an extended holiday now may help, except that those essential services parents who cannot look after the kids suddenly should be able to leave them at schools that perform more of a child minding service.  Maybe it would be 1/5 of the normal students, with a similar reduction in staff needed to look after them.  

*  There is reason to think, based on a couple of things I have read today (like these comments by Peter Doherty) that the sudden strong action which we are having may succeed in never letting this problem get out of hand in the hospitals.   I feel talk of closing down anything for 6 months may be unnecessarily alarmist.

*  Conflict between doctors and experts as to future progress of the problem continues apace - it's interesting how difficult this problem is for experts as well as lay people.

Can someone just blow up Fox News and do the USA, and the world, a favour?

How appalling:

The Fox News whipsaw on coronavirus: In another swerve, hosts push Trump to abandon shutdown 

   

RMIT must be so proud

Steve Kates at Catallaxy, today:

It’s the flu and it’s on the way to containment. It looks like a relative handful will unfortunately die, but its not the Andromeda Strain either.

Just shows the quality of Associate Professors at that institution...

Various thoughts

*   Fran Kelly on Radio National Breakfast this morning was broadcasting from her living room, and I had no idea until she said so.  The audio quality was exactly the same. 

My thought:  if too many businesses find they can get things done just as well if key employees work from home, is the commercial real estate market going to come out as the long term loser as a result of coronavirus?   I mean, it already seemed clear that too much new floorspace has been built in the last decade or so for retail, with shopping centres gradually emptying.   Is the same going to become clear for office space now too?   I think all funds which invest in commercial real estate ought to be having a very serious re-consideration.

*  So, as I expected, the Teachers Union has had to step in to tell at least the Queensland government to just close the schools now (for a month long break).   My daughter tells me that there are a lot of students not coming to school.   She also tells me about some teachers who are spraying disinfectant with wild abandon around their classroom.

*  Is there an actual personality disorder for people who fall in love with fascist authoritarian figures but can't recognise what fascistic authoritarianism looks like?   If so, Steve Kates has it.  In a ridiculous paranoid post a couple of days ago, he got mightily offended by Dr Fauci correcting Dear Leader Trump, who obviously is the wisest man in any room:

Every time I see the face of Dr Fauci while telling us about Corona Virus I realise how much he must have had a bollocking from the President since from the start I was aware of what a complete lying incompetent he was....

The one thing you may be sure of is that he was “muzzled” in the sense that he was told in no uncertain terms that he is an untrustworthy dimwit and if he doesn’t work within the team, he will be out on his ear. The Deep State is your enemy. You can see it in the way the media will say not an unkind word about the Chinese origins of the CV. In fact, all they do is rant on themselves about the so-called racism of saying that a virus that originated in China originated in China. If you can’t say something negative about the President, don’t say it at all is the policy.

 * In one rare case of outlets on either side of the political divide agreeing, I have seen both Right and Left-ish opinion pieces saying "Washington, don't you dare bail out the cruise line industry".   I think that's right.   I mean, it's not as if the sparkling new-ish mega ships are going to be immediately sent to be cut up into scrap on that beach (in India?) if the head company goes bankrupt, surely?    There would just be a re-arrangement of assets and, given its likely continued popularity once coronavirus has run its course, the industry will be fully back within a couple of years.  I would think.  Yet Dear Leader is keen to help them, apparently.

 

Late Movie review - Us

I'm having trouble tracking down my review of Jordan Peele's first big success - Get Out.   I'm pretty sure I said it was good, up to the point of the explanation of what was going on, which was lifted from C grade 1950's science fiction.   And I was a little perturbed about the relish with which the righteous black guy got to violently attack the evil white people.

I am sad to report that pretty much the exact same things can be said about Us.  He's a good director of well made, well acted films based on his own really bad ideas for films.   The explanation for what is happening in this one seemed to me even more ludicrous than that in Get Out.  I thought it may have been inspired by a nightmarish dream, perhaps after watching a Twilight Zone episode.

My son commented that it seemed obvious that it was intended to have a deeper meaning:  some sort of critique of American society, but it's hard seeing what it is.  I think it may be a case of an appearance of depth that is not really there.

I would like Peele to direct something he doesn't write, and which ultimately makes more sense.

To state the obvious - the Australian response to Covid 19 is pretty confusing

Everyone else is talking about it, so why not me?:

*  on schools (again):   it seems that the Commonwealth tried to get the States to agree on a consistent approach, but failed.  My daughter is in year 12, and I regularly also chat to a State school primary school teacher of Year 1.  From these sources, I have a fair idea that teachers are not happy and are fearful of catching it from their students.  Queensland teachers were expecting the Easter holidays to be extended and brought forward, allowing a month long break.   Now we are having a "going to school is not compulsory, but schools are open, and if you are in one State they would like you to go to school, but in another they would prefer you stay at home" mishmash, all (presumably) with students still having to sit exams and submit assessments whether or not their parent lets them go to school.  

Morrison talked as if closing down schools might mean they can't reopen for, say, 6 months, and so all kids would lose a full year of school.   But of course that's not a necessary outcome.   I would ahve thought that re-arranging holidays this year allows the schools to get better prepared for both:

a.  dealing with prevention in schools assuming they can continue after a month break (allowing classrooms to be re-arranged for distancing, building up a pile of soap, paper towels and hand sanitisers, detailing compulsory sanitation measures before classes, maybe even getting thermometers to allow student's temperatures to be taken) and

b.  preparing for the potential need to fully close them to but allow for on line education to continue, even if at a reduced intensity compared to normal schooling.

And, as with other countries, you could also make it clear that those parents whose jobs simply do not allow for day time care of younger students, the schools will always be available to provide that service.

This would have made a lot more sense, if you ask me, compared to the weird sort of mishmash we now have.

*  the financial response - I don't understand enough about it to have a strong opinion one way or another.   Significant parts of it don't make obvious sense to me.

*  closing down of cafes, pubs and cinemas, etc.   Perhaps this needs more emphasis on a successful outcome meaning they can re-open, perhaps with limitations, in a (say) a month's time.   I think part of the dismay about it is that the overall impression left is that the shutdown will likely be for months, not weeks.

A bunch of tweets I liked

Consistency was never Tony's strong point

Getting more dubious by the day

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy has joined Mr Morrison at the media conference and he has confirmed schools are staying open under these measures, for these reasons:

"I think it is really important to recognise that, as we've said before, we think the risk to children with this virus is very low. Only 2.4% of all the cases in China in Hubei Province were under 19, and there have been very, very few significant cases. Obviously we do have some concerns that children may have a role in transmission but most children who have seemed to have got the virus have got it from adults as you've seen in this case. We think keeping children at home when there is relatively no community spread is probably disproportionate given they probably won't stay at home anyway. They may be cared for by elderly parents. There may be circumstances where there are outbreaks in an area where we do need to close schools for a period of time. Our strategy for the next six months is to keep schools open and we think that risk is appropriate."

Sorry, but I am sceptical of this advice, given that:

a. other countries and states are obviously not closing their schools without having their own medical advice that it's a worthwhile thing to do;

b.  the advice from the same CMO  keeps getting tougher on the recommended social distancing, it seems a bit nonsensical to say that the age group most notorious for having little "personal space" are to stay in the place where they are going to rub up against maximum numbers of people;

c. "...they probably won't stay at home anyway..."  seems just a bit of guesswork, no?

d.  as I argued yesterday, why not differentiate between high schools and primary schools:  it doesn't have to be "all or nothing";

e.  this advice is being given on the same day a student caught Covid-19 from a teacher in Adelaide.   Are the State government immune from legal action by parents who kids catch it from teachers?   I have my doubts.   And, of course, transmission the other way is quite possible, too.

I don't know - I think the Teachers Unions might have to take this on....