Planet America on the ABC is really good: smart, sharp and knowledgeable programming of the kind that has pretty much disappeared from commercial television.
Unfortunately, though, I often overlook watching it on its first screening, and it's the sort of topical show which it seems not worth going back to view on line even after a few days, given the speed with which Trump generates new, usually appalling, news.
However, I watched last night's episode and it was well worthwhile. They had an interview with a New York doctor who painted a very bleak picture of the city at the moment. You should watch it.
And I have been meaning to comment on this for a good few days now: New Yorkers, being at the epicentre of the North American COVID-19 crisis, must be absolutely hating listening to Trump downplay the problem, trying to claim that there is plentiful protective equipment, and giving himself top marks for how his government has responded. They must despise the man.
Thursday, April 02, 2020
Our numbers do seem pretty good
Far be it for me to want to give any succour to right wing figures who are screaming "Think of the economy! We have over-reacted!", but I do get the feeling that it's not unreasonable to be starting to think that Australia might have caught COVID-19 in time. I've been looking at the Worldometer table, and note that:
a. as everyone knows, the South East Asian rich countries did exceptionally well;
b. you can ignore the poorer SE Asian countries which currently show tiny case numbers, but presumably they have tiny testing rates, and I think the WHO should rightly be warning everyone of terrible death tolls that may come from those places over the next 6 months;
c. but compared to other Western nations, including virtually all of Europe and the USA, Australian figures do seem remarkably good, especially on a per capita basis. We're still under "1" for deaths per million of population, and our "total cases per million" at 195 is close to that of South Korea, and a fraction of the figures for the likes of Germany, France (around 1/4), the USA (about 1/3) and the UK (about 1/2). In fact, looking at the UK, why is their death rate running at 35 per million, while ours is barely 1?
The trick, of course, is going to be how to judge an appropriate rate of "return to something like normalcy" without risking the numbers getting out of control.
But, the figures do seem to give some optimism that early action may have worked well, and the government should not be shy of saying that. I think that, for general economic confidence reasons, it would good for the government to also start talking about the criteria it will be using to look at when they will start to relax the present semi-lockdown. It's probably a pretty hard thing to communicate, as I expect the expert opinion on that will be divided.
Update: here's a report on the same topic in The Guardian today.
Update: I see from Bolt's blog (I can only see the header - no way I would part with a cent of money to a Murdoch publication) that he is saying something similar to what is in my last paragraph. (Except he puts it in his bombastic way, that the PM must tell us how the lockdown will end; it can't go on for 6 months, that would be a disaster, etc) The problem with Bolt's take on it all, though, is that he helping encourage the dangerous Right wing views that it was never a serious danger; it's enabled something like a Left wing dictatorship; and it's already low risk to go back to normal. Just have a look at the headings of his other posts.
a. as everyone knows, the South East Asian rich countries did exceptionally well;
b. you can ignore the poorer SE Asian countries which currently show tiny case numbers, but presumably they have tiny testing rates, and I think the WHO should rightly be warning everyone of terrible death tolls that may come from those places over the next 6 months;
c. but compared to other Western nations, including virtually all of Europe and the USA, Australian figures do seem remarkably good, especially on a per capita basis. We're still under "1" for deaths per million of population, and our "total cases per million" at 195 is close to that of South Korea, and a fraction of the figures for the likes of Germany, France (around 1/4), the USA (about 1/3) and the UK (about 1/2). In fact, looking at the UK, why is their death rate running at 35 per million, while ours is barely 1?
The trick, of course, is going to be how to judge an appropriate rate of "return to something like normalcy" without risking the numbers getting out of control.
But, the figures do seem to give some optimism that early action may have worked well, and the government should not be shy of saying that. I think that, for general economic confidence reasons, it would good for the government to also start talking about the criteria it will be using to look at when they will start to relax the present semi-lockdown. It's probably a pretty hard thing to communicate, as I expect the expert opinion on that will be divided.
Update: here's a report on the same topic in The Guardian today.
Update: I see from Bolt's blog (I can only see the header - no way I would part with a cent of money to a Murdoch publication) that he is saying something similar to what is in my last paragraph. (Except he puts it in his bombastic way, that the PM must tell us how the lockdown will end; it can't go on for 6 months, that would be a disaster, etc) The problem with Bolt's take on it all, though, is that he helping encourage the dangerous Right wing views that it was never a serious danger; it's enabled something like a Left wing dictatorship; and it's already low risk to go back to normal. Just have a look at the headings of his other posts.
Wednesday, April 01, 2020
Back to COVID
It's hard to believe that it won't be a disaster in India. Not to mention Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, and any nation when large numbers of the poor live in slum like areas. From Science:
Fewer than 600 cases had been confirmed at the time of Modi’s announcement, although that number is widely believed to be an undercount. But without control measures, 300 million to 500 million Indians could be infected by the end of July and 30 million to 50 million could have severe disease, according to one model. And the world’s second most populous country has large numbers of poor living in crowded, unsanitary conditions and a weak public health infrastructure, with just 0.7 hospital beds per 1000 persons, compared with Italy’s 3.4 and the United States’s 2.9; India also has fewer than 50,000 ventilators.
Self indulgent observations (because it's not about you-know-what)
* I reckon viognier is a very underutilised wine grape variety. You can barely find it in a lot of liquor outlets, but it has distinctive characteristics which I like.
* Speaking of wine grape varieties that don't get a fair go - I remember drinking Australian made verdelho back in the 1980's, and now I don't think I have seen it for many years. It was fine. Why did it go out of style?
* More about wine in the 1980's: the Hunter Valley used to be hugely into making semillon. I think they still do, but again, I doubt that it has the sales that it used to. I thought it was OK, especially if older, but I was never the biggest fan. Hunter Valley wineries also always made a chablis style of wine, and I used to always dislike it for being extremely dry and (to my mind) acidic. It always used to give me indigestion, like no other wine. I'm glad you don't see that one around anymore.
* On to food: I really like the frozen Scottish kippers you can buy. I get the feeling they don't sell many in Australia, and they do stink up the kitchen when you grill them, but a very pleasing, salty treat, if you ask me.
* My son has taken to making mojitos for himself, but he prefers using dark rum over white. I presume he is following a similar trajectory to me - the first spirit I remember buying was Southern Comfort, which I think I drank with soda; but I used to enjoy cheap brandy with (don't know how common this is) dry ginger ale. Scotch and dry was fine too. I still like scotch and dry, sometimes, from a pub. I presume it's a common thing that young drinkers most often do not have a taste at first for bitterness, or overly dry characteristics, in their alcoholic drinks. That usually develops later. Or it did with me, over my 20's.
* Speaking of wine grape varieties that don't get a fair go - I remember drinking Australian made verdelho back in the 1980's, and now I don't think I have seen it for many years. It was fine. Why did it go out of style?
* More about wine in the 1980's: the Hunter Valley used to be hugely into making semillon. I think they still do, but again, I doubt that it has the sales that it used to. I thought it was OK, especially if older, but I was never the biggest fan. Hunter Valley wineries also always made a chablis style of wine, and I used to always dislike it for being extremely dry and (to my mind) acidic. It always used to give me indigestion, like no other wine. I'm glad you don't see that one around anymore.
* On to food: I really like the frozen Scottish kippers you can buy. I get the feeling they don't sell many in Australia, and they do stink up the kitchen when you grill them, but a very pleasing, salty treat, if you ask me.
* My son has taken to making mojitos for himself, but he prefers using dark rum over white. I presume he is following a similar trajectory to me - the first spirit I remember buying was Southern Comfort, which I think I drank with soda; but I used to enjoy cheap brandy with (don't know how common this is) dry ginger ale. Scotch and dry was fine too. I still like scotch and dry, sometimes, from a pub. I presume it's a common thing that young drinkers most often do not have a taste at first for bitterness, or overly dry characteristics, in their alcoholic drinks. That usually develops later. Or it did with me, over my 20's.
Made me laugh
So I saw the tweet about an English woman asking about the name of a neighbour's cat via signs in the window. Read about it here.
Here's the full sign:
Then saw this later tweet, which amused me a lot:
Here's the full sign:
Revelation, indeed
I didn't see the second episode of the ABC's Revelation documentary series about child abuse in the Catholic Church, but I ended up watching the final episode last night.
It really was pretty shocking stuff: in particular, the couple of current priests who struck, shall we say, far from the expected tone in their attitude.
For example, there was the sad interview with a 90 something year old mother whose 13 year old son hanged himself in his bedroom in the 1970's. Three Brothers from his school, one of whom was his class teacher, came to the house and asked if he had left a note. He hadn't. Later, it transpires that his teacher was convicted of multiple sex offences against his students.
But the priest who also attended the dead boy's house to anoint him is still alive, and was interviewed. He expresses the view that it was more likely a prank that went wrong than a case of the boy being a victim of sexual abuse(!). Why would he express such a view after what has gone on? Completely and utterly "tone deaf", if nothing else.
Father Brian Lucas came out of his interview as a pedantic jerk, too.
It was pretty powerful stuff, really.
There was also another interview, from jail, of a brother who had been moved from place to place once his abuse was discovered. His comments further put paid to the conservative idea that it was homosexuality that was at the heart of the problem, rather than sexual immaturity, social isolation and opportunistic access to boys. I cannot believe that conservative Catholics cannot get this into their heads: it would never have been a case that a priest or brother could easily explain away spending time with girls or young women in their accommodation, or taking them on trips. But they could readily be assumed to be having a mentoring or friendly relationship with boys, and they used this to access sex.
It really was pretty shocking stuff: in particular, the couple of current priests who struck, shall we say, far from the expected tone in their attitude.
For example, there was the sad interview with a 90 something year old mother whose 13 year old son hanged himself in his bedroom in the 1970's. Three Brothers from his school, one of whom was his class teacher, came to the house and asked if he had left a note. He hadn't. Later, it transpires that his teacher was convicted of multiple sex offences against his students.
But the priest who also attended the dead boy's house to anoint him is still alive, and was interviewed. He expresses the view that it was more likely a prank that went wrong than a case of the boy being a victim of sexual abuse(!). Why would he express such a view after what has gone on? Completely and utterly "tone deaf", if nothing else.
Father Brian Lucas came out of his interview as a pedantic jerk, too.
It was pretty powerful stuff, really.
There was also another interview, from jail, of a brother who had been moved from place to place once his abuse was discovered. His comments further put paid to the conservative idea that it was homosexuality that was at the heart of the problem, rather than sexual immaturity, social isolation and opportunistic access to boys. I cannot believe that conservative Catholics cannot get this into their heads: it would never have been a case that a priest or brother could easily explain away spending time with girls or young women in their accommodation, or taking them on trips. But they could readily be assumed to be having a mentoring or friendly relationship with boys, and they used this to access sex.
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Idiocracy, indeed
Meanwhile, in Australia, Sinclair Davidson is doing another bit of comic book inspired "take down the government" wankerism by re-heading Catallaxy as follows:A man suspected of plotting to blow up a Missouri hospital and was killed in a shootout with FBI agents was apparently frustrated with local government action to stop the spread of coronavirus, the FBI said Wednesday.Timothy Wilson, 36, died Tuesday in Belton, Missouri, a suburb of Kansas City, after members of the FBI’s joint terrorism task force attempted to arrest him. The FBI says Wilson was the subject of a “months-long domestic terrorism investigation."
[Update: see comments for apparent clarification.]
I don't know why any politician gives him the time of day.
I had noticed this too...
What is it about Trump putting trust in long haired doctors? It's very odd...
Update: Slate has an article pointing out that this French doctor/researcher has a very, very dubious track record. Also, is a climate change denier. The "crank" element is high.
Watching the goal posts shift
And this laughable Trump spin on how he's now being thanked for social isolation bringing families together!:
And over at Catallaxy, I continue to be amused at how keyboard warriors of the Right are bravely offering the sacrifice of anyone over 70 in the interests of keeping the economy ticking. (Someone wittily tweeted last week that they wouldn't have guessed that it would be the conservative Right that would end up endorsing the social system of Logan's Run.)
And look at the pathetic goal post shifting that is going on. CL posts with strong endorsement a Roger Kimball article (dated 28 March) which encapsulates the view that it's still an over-reaction, this economic shutdown. Yet towards the end, he has to do some fessing up:
Over the past few weeks, I have been predicting a modest fatality rate from COVID-19. I began by predicting no more than a couple of hundred deaths and then upped my prediction to a 1,000-1,200. As of today, the number of deaths attributed to the virus is just over 2,000. So I was wrong about that.He then argues that maybe he wasn't really wrong - most of these deaths are old people who had other conditions. [Groan].
But look at the basic goalpost shifting - his initial prediction was out by a factor of 10 - as of 28 March. The number of deaths today? - close enough to 3,000. [Update - over 3,000 now, according to the Worldometer count, which seems to update faster than WHO or other sites and is quoted by Kimball himself.]
At what point will these dimwits admit that their initial predictions were so embarrassingly wrong, people should ignore any and every thing they ever say about risk and science again? At the "I was out by a factor of 100" stage? 1,000? We will see.
Update: Via The Onion, this story headline fits perfectly with a common view on the wingnut, Trump defending Right at Catallaxy and elsewhere:
Monday, March 30, 2020
Further downgrading warranted
I recently rubbished conservative Catholic Trump excuser Gray Connolly for his bad takes on many topics.
Today, I noticed that he recently went up to another level on the "pathetic" scale. This is how it went:
Connolly went on to challenge Dale to put up the video, and he did. There is no laughter to be heard, from journalists or otherwise.
Connolly then, unbelievably, tweets this:
And then:
What an arrogant schmuck!
As someone says following:
And this:
Others point out that, even if you were to believe Trump was "joking" - that would be appalling in its own way.
Connolly is just a Trump excusing fool. No doubt about it.
Today, I noticed that he recently went up to another level on the "pathetic" scale. This is how it went:
Connolly went on to challenge Dale to put up the video, and he did. There is no laughter to be heard, from journalists or otherwise.
Connolly then, unbelievably, tweets this:
What an arrogant schmuck!
As someone says following:
Others point out that, even if you were to believe Trump was "joking" - that would be appalling in its own way.
Connolly is just a Trump excusing fool. No doubt about it.
Go right ahead, libertarians
I've probably mentioned Topher Field only once before - the guy who has seemingly been funded (I would have to suspect by someone like Gina Rinehart via the IPA) to try to become a social media star running libertarian, anti-government, anti-regulation and "let's not worry about the environment" lines. I see from his Youtube channel that he's been at it for more than 10 years, but it would seem hard to say "successfully" when the number of views he gets for a video now looks to be about a quarter (around 5,000) compared to what he used to get. He has also bulked up - he looks (and sounds, now that I think of it) like a version of Benedict Cumberbatch who has let himself go even before he hit middle age.
I find him very easy to ignore, but Sinclair Davidson still thinks he's worth listening to, apparently, and has posted his latest video in which Field fatuously offers to be infected with Covid-19, so as to help increase the herd immunity that will ultimately mean we can relax concerns about the virus.
Hey, given that libertarians are a serious menace to the future of the entire planet, who am I to object? Is it too mean to say that I only wish more libertarians would give it a go?
The broader point I want to make is that the libertarian line is to be upset that the government is taking economically harmful action when the data is not clear enough as to know with certainty how bad the problem really is. This is very consistent with their malleable line on climate change - they first tried to convince everyone it was not happening at all, then moved towards conceding it might be happening but arguing you can afford to wait, until you know for sure how bad it is. (Maybe it's even pretty good, some still try to argue.)
What they do not get, or wilfully ignore, is that the nature of some problems is that if you wait, there is no undoing the damage. They are prepared to gamble on dire harm to the future of humanity because they value continuing economic growth so highly they try to convince everyone else to ignore well founded, scientifically based warnings that are dire for both the health of individuals and long term economic prospects of an entire planet.
In other words, they are foolish and try to spread their foolishness. It's good they can't get their head on TV much lately. Keep them in their internet enclaves, where they mainly just dumb each other down.
I find him very easy to ignore, but Sinclair Davidson still thinks he's worth listening to, apparently, and has posted his latest video in which Field fatuously offers to be infected with Covid-19, so as to help increase the herd immunity that will ultimately mean we can relax concerns about the virus.
Hey, given that libertarians are a serious menace to the future of the entire planet, who am I to object? Is it too mean to say that I only wish more libertarians would give it a go?
The broader point I want to make is that the libertarian line is to be upset that the government is taking economically harmful action when the data is not clear enough as to know with certainty how bad the problem really is. This is very consistent with their malleable line on climate change - they first tried to convince everyone it was not happening at all, then moved towards conceding it might be happening but arguing you can afford to wait, until you know for sure how bad it is. (Maybe it's even pretty good, some still try to argue.)
What they do not get, or wilfully ignore, is that the nature of some problems is that if you wait, there is no undoing the damage. They are prepared to gamble on dire harm to the future of humanity because they value continuing economic growth so highly they try to convince everyone else to ignore well founded, scientifically based warnings that are dire for both the health of individuals and long term economic prospects of an entire planet.
In other words, they are foolish and try to spread their foolishness. It's good they can't get their head on TV much lately. Keep them in their internet enclaves, where they mainly just dumb each other down.
Speaking of tone deaf...
Chris Uhlmann, who I never considered the sharpest mind in journalism, was widely mocked on Twitter last week for praising himself for...not praising himself and his network about its Covid-19 coverage. (He was ineptly having a go at his former ABC colleagues who were happy to see they were doing very well in internet hits for their coverage. I think 7.30 might be rating well too, but I'm not sure. Why he should resent the ABC doing simple self promotion and taking pride in the credibility with which it is perceived when it is under constant threat of more defunding under the current government, I have no idea.)
And today he is at it again:
It seems he positively wants to help prompt the defunding of the ABC. As someone says in a follow up tweet:
And today he is at it again:
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Must...post..about...something...else...
Let's get trivial, in this time of great upheaval, caused not by rioting in the streets, but people being stuck in their bedrooms. I never expected the almost-end-of-Western-hegemony* to be quite like this. But back to the trivial:
* I can't decide which of these is the better "toilet care" product:
or
I've tried both. Just can't make up my mind....
* Watched the well reviewed (actually, I think overly well reviewed) Chinese movie Shadow on Netflix last night. It's one of the most arthouse-y Chinese myth-historical martial arts-ish movies I've ever seen (not that I have seen many). On the upside, it does have lovely, eye catching directorial compositions shot in greyscale (except for skin and blood), an argument conducted by zither (honestly), and an arcane plot which seems very unclear at first but does become more comprehensible as it goes on. A lot of money spent on costumes and (perhaps) the very silly weaponry which shows up unexpectedly in the climatic fight. Overall, it kept my attention and I would say I enjoyed it for its Chinese peculiarities as well as its looks.
I suggested to my son (who was less impressed with the film than I was - but he watched to the end) that the fist and palm salute as executed in the film does look pretty cool, and I was hoping that he would acknowledge my requests to do some chore or other around the house in that manner, for the next few days at least. He has not complied. But it's good for our current situation, no?
* Good to know [sarc] that Kimmy has got his priorities right:
By the way, the grey haired guy sitting in on that chat show is Boris Johnson's Dad - I haven't watched the clip of the interview with him yet, but it is on the Youtube channel as well.
* I am exaggerating to amuse myself. I hope.
* I can't decide which of these is the better "toilet care" product:
I've tried both. Just can't make up my mind....
* Watched the well reviewed (actually, I think overly well reviewed) Chinese movie Shadow on Netflix last night. It's one of the most arthouse-y Chinese myth-historical martial arts-ish movies I've ever seen (not that I have seen many). On the upside, it does have lovely, eye catching directorial compositions shot in greyscale (except for skin and blood), an argument conducted by zither (honestly), and an arcane plot which seems very unclear at first but does become more comprehensible as it goes on. A lot of money spent on costumes and (perhaps) the very silly weaponry which shows up unexpectedly in the climatic fight. Overall, it kept my attention and I would say I enjoyed it for its Chinese peculiarities as well as its looks.
I suggested to my son (who was less impressed with the film than I was - but he watched to the end) that the fist and palm salute as executed in the film does look pretty cool, and I was hoping that he would acknowledge my requests to do some chore or other around the house in that manner, for the next few days at least. He has not complied. But it's good for our current situation, no?
* Good to know [sarc] that Kimmy has got his priorities right:
SEOUL: North Korea fired what appeared to be two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast on Sunday (Mar 29), the fourthsuchlaunch this month* It's always hard to tell how much of Richard Ayoade's persona on TV is a kind of performance art, but I thought he was entertaining and somewhat charming in this recent chat show appearance. (I've never heard of this Norwegian host before, but I see he has been around a long time):
By the way, the grey haired guy sitting in on that chat show is Boris Johnson's Dad - I haven't watched the clip of the interview with him yet, but it is on the Youtube channel as well.
Friday, March 27, 2020
About those Dr Birx comments
So, that Deborah Birx gave some surprisingly Trumpian sounding "I wish the media would stop scaring everyone without foundation" comments about Covid-19 (and hospitals being all A-OK with plenty of ventilators), which I thought sounded suss.
And here on Twitter is a carefully worded critique (in a thread starting here) of what she said, by one of the epidemiologists whose work she was apparently referencing, which indicates that scepticism of her reassurances is quite justified.
Will the conservative media, and Catallaxy fools, who immediately celebrated her as a realist hero tramping all over the liberal media, ever bother reading Lipsitch's comments? I doubt it.
Update: Yes, no one sensible thinks she has credibility any more.
And here on Twitter is a carefully worded critique (in a thread starting here) of what she said, by one of the epidemiologists whose work she was apparently referencing, which indicates that scepticism of her reassurances is quite justified.
Will the conservative media, and Catallaxy fools, who immediately celebrated her as a realist hero tramping all over the liberal media, ever bother reading Lipsitch's comments? I doubt it.
Update: Yes, no one sensible thinks she has credibility any more.
More tweets worth noting
Yes, I had been intending to make the same point. Steve Kates, for example, does not believe that Y2K was a serious software issue on which lots of time, effort and money was necessarily expended to ensure a crisis didn't happen.
Oh, and now that I look, I see that CL is already claiming this, because a UK expert is saying that the deaths in total could be on the low side because of the tough lockdown the country has been prepared to enforce.
CL, who craps on routinely about how shameful it is that too many old people end up in nursing homes (instead of at home, presumably being cared for by all the women he resents for having a job instead of being a housewife) has come out all in favour of the the Trumpian/conservative line "you know, these old people were going to die anyway, let's not worry too much about it":
Then there are my fellow Catholics, a number of whom seem to believe the right to life – which is the right not to be killed – means no-one can be “allowed” to die at any cost. This is both childish and theological nonsense. Society and the economy cannot be “shut down.” This isn’t a Ferris wheel. If that’s the putative solution, then there is no current “solution” – except patience, charity, cleanliness and protection of the vulnerable. That is the best we can do.The Trump supporting conservative (especially a Catholic one) is the most ridiculous, inconsistent, morally offensive and intellectually vacuous thing I have ever seen in my lifetime.
Next:
Yes, been seen at Catallaxy, too.
I trust Steve Kates is pleased that Trump gives out press credentials to such outlets. (He is Jewish, apparently. And living proof that you can't stereotype all Jews as intellectually sharp.)
Yes, I think this is likely, too.
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Finally!
So, the Queensland government finally does what I have been saying they should:
Queensland schools will be 'student-free' from next week amid coronavirus pandemic, Premier announcesAnd how about this for an unfortunate Coronavirus situation:
...The Premier said the decision to make schools student-free from Monday would give teachers a chance to prepare learning materials and get training in online teaching.
A Peruvian hostel full of international travellers, including at least one Australian, has been put under strict lockdown for up to three months after two guests tested positive for coronavirus.Look at the accommodation they are stuck in:
The street surrounding the Pariwana Hostel in Cusco has been barricaded by local authorities, while the 146 guests and staff were informed that they could face up to 10 years in prison if they leave the property while the quarantine orders are in place.
Is Mark self isolating with a few bottles of red, or something?
How does Latham's tweet make any sense at all?:
I am amused, however, by one of the tweets following which notes that at least he's found his place in One Neuron.
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