I really find this hard to comprehend:
While the overall numbers are essentially unchanged from before the convention, the gender gap has widened. Harris leads by 13 points among women, 54-41 percent, while it’s Trump +5 points among men, 51-46 percent, for an 18-point gap. (The Trump-Harris difference among men is not statistically significant.) Pre-convention, Harris had been a slight +6 points among women and a non-significant +3 among men, a 3-point gap. The gender gap now is more in line with recent elections, an average of 19 points in exit polls since 1996.
Much of the moves among women and men have occurred among white people. White women have gone from +13 points for Trump pre-convention to a virtual dead heat (Trump +2) now; white men, from +13 points for Trump before the convention to +21 points now.
I mean, I think this would freak me out a bit if travelling in the USA - knowing that if I ever get into a conversation with a white male, the odds are extremely high that they will be intending to vote for Trump!
You could make out the case that the problem is pretty much white people generally, to be honest. This is from exit polling at the last election:
But I just don't see how it is possible to interpret the massive jump in polling support amongst white males since Harris was the candidate as anything other than residual sexism. (Come on, if she was an appalling candidate in all respects, she wouldn't have jumped significantly with white women.)
Here's a good article from the New York Times in 2020 that seeks to explain the massive gender difference. Some extracts:
When Ronald Reagan defeated the incumbent president, Jimmy Carter, in the 1980 presidential election, exit polls showed that women favored him by a slim 2-percentage-point margin but that he won the male vote 55 to 36 percent. The last time the gender gap was that big was the 1950s, but at that point — and traditionally — it was women who were the more conservative voters, which was largely attributed to their greater religiosity.
Polling is consistent that women are more likely to favor government spending on social issues, and that is likely one reason the gender gap emerged in 1980....
Some argued that the gender gap emerged because women were voting in their self-interest. But the sociologist Martin Gilens, now the chairman of the public policy department at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, took issue with that idea.
In a paper published in the Berkeley Journal of Sociology late in Mr. Reagan’s first term, he wrote, “I do not believe that ‘women’s issues’ such as the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) or abortion, nor economic conditions such as the growing number of impoverished women, are primarily responsible for the gender gap, though they may play a part.” Instead, he continued, “I think the gender gap reflects traditional differences in male and female values and personalities, differences such as men’s greater competitiveness and concerns with issues of power and control, and women’s greater compassion and nurturance, rejection of force and violence, and concern with interpersonal relations.”
The language is a bit dated, but much of the research since has come to similar conclusions. A 2012 report from what is now the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University reviewed polling results and summed up the issues dividing male and female voters.
Women, it found, were more likely to favor an “activist role for government” and were more supportive of guaranteed health care, same-sex marriage and restrictions on firearms. They were more likely to favor legal abortion without restrictions, though polls sometimes show fairly equal support among men and women on abortion.
Men’s political views were shaped by a more individualistic attitude, the report found — a feeling that government should not help so much.
The piece also then notes that the parties have "branded" themselves in (what I suppose you could call) gendered ways too:
You can make an argument
that, rather than men and women having changed their ways of thinking
over the past several decades, the two major parties have basically
branded themselves by gender, as well as by race. The hundreds of
million of dollars spent each election cycle to “energize the base”
serve to herd voters into their respective tents. Once inside, they hear
messages that reaffirm and cement their party identity.
The
Republican Party is for white men and people who think like white men.
“We see it in poll questions that ask, “Is America getting too soft and
feminine?” Dr. Deckman said. “Those who answer ‘yes’ lean strongly
Republican.”
The Democratic Party is the party for women and for people of color, who
are even more dependable Democrats than women. It is also,
increasingly, the party of the college educated: In a late September Washington Post-ABC News poll,
Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden by a modest 8 points among white men with a
college degree, but by a whopping 39 points among white men without a
college degree. In other words, white college-educated men are beginning
to vote more like women and people of color.
Towards the end, some straight talking:
The gender gap cannot be completely differentiated from rank misogyny. Some would argue that it is
misogyny. At the very least, it is a sign of our nation’s broken
culture that men and women cannot agree on fundamental moral questions:
The importance of integrity and common decency. The humane treatment of
society’s most vulnerable. The worthiness of a man to lead our nation
who apparently paid hush money to a porn star.
Anyway, while MAGA types always go on about how it could take a civil war to sort out America, I might be starting to agree; except it shouldn't be one between Democrats and Republicans - it just needs to be one that's pretty much a race war - Blacks, Hispanics and Asian against white - particularly white males - and especially if they never went to college!
Unfortunately, that's probably also the category most likely to have an arsenal at home ready for such a war. But they aren't so smart - some nerdy Asian American military leadership can probably put together a pretty good home made drone war against them. But then again, Musk would naturally want a leadership role in the incel Army. I don't know that he would be much of a military leader though - he might flame out on ketamine or something.
Apart from that, I don't know how this terrible situation in the US is going to change. No doubt, some aerial bombing of Fox News and Newsmax would surely help. Especially if it is by female pilots...
Update: Further to the discussion in comments about how much it might be a "culture war" related issue of how masculinity is perceived, the thing that I don't get is why it seems to be primarily a white male thing. Why would white men be so disproportionately insecure in that way? I mean, Black and Latino men as a group generally have a reputation for macho type masculinity, yet the exit polls indicate it doesn't affect their voting in the way it does white men:
So, if I am reading these correctly, about 80% plus of Black men voted for Biden, 60% of "Latinex" men and 68% of Asian Americans. Compared to 40% of white male voters!
One partial explanation might be that the macho-est of macho Black and Latino men might not vote at the same rate as white men? This article does indicate that Black men vote at lower rates, but doesn't explain by how much, and it wouldn't seem likely to account for it
So, as the title of the post says....why white men in particular??
Update 2: A few related jokes from the late night shows:
“Forty-eight percent,” Stephen Colbert said, referring to a recent USA Today survey in which Harris led Donald Trump, 48 percent to 43 percent. “That really restores my faith in almost half of humanity.”
“Harris is particularly popular with
women, while Trump is ahead among men, leading some to call this ‘the
boys versus girls election.’ And, remember, many Trump voters are not
vaccinated against cooties.” — STEPHEN COLBERT
“A
new poll found that Harris has widened her lead among women to 13
points. Thirteen. Trump heard the news and was like, ‘Was it everything I
said?’” — JIMMY FALLON
