The Ego has Landed

 Still got that Mussolini smug grin going, I see.

I did see some bits of the speech - all the greatest "hits" delivered in rambling fashion:  the nation under his reign was like heaven on Earth; it's now a crumbling, wretched wreck again that only he can fix.  

Couple of new things I noticed:  death penalty for drug dealers (expressing approval of execution immediately after trial - pretty much the same day - like he reckons Xi told him is the system in China.)   Also a bit of the trans gender stuff (no men in women's sports), which wasn't such a thing back in his first campaign.   

Anyway, he'll be charged before too long, I reckon.   I wonder if that will be the opportunity for Hannity and Carlson to withdraw support?   

Update:  George Will putting out the strong anti-Trump case in the Washington Post points out a few things worth remembering:

Among the Republican nominating electorate, Trump has a floor of forever Trumpers, but the floor is sagging. If his bitter-enders were the questioning sort, they would ask: What states that he previously carried might he lose in 2024, and what states that he previously lost might he conceivably carry in 2024?

His 2016 victory was sealed by wafer-thin margins (a combined 77,744 votes out of 13,940,912 cast) in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All three just elected Democratic governors, two (Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania) by landslides over notably supine Trump grovelers who were out of their depths and perhaps their minds. Trump’s marathon post-2020 tantrum was ignited when he was declared the loser in Arizona, which has just elected a Democratic senator and perhaps governor. Georgia, which Trump won by 211,141 votes out of 4,114,732 cast in 2016, and which he lost by 11,779 votes out of 4,999,960 cast in 2020, just emphatically reelected Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both of whom Trump reviles because they acknowledged the arithmetic of his 2020 Georgia loss....

What handhold can Trump, the entertainer turned bore, now grasp to stop his current slide? He has always been a Potemkin tycoon, parasitic off the superstition that great wealth is somehow symptomatic of other greatness. Hence his tenacious secretiveness regarding his tax returns, which might reveal the fictitiousness of his financial wizardry. New York prosecutors could soon lift the veil....

The midterm elections indicate that a growing number of voters seem inclined to make cool-eyed calculations as unenthralled adults: Do not seek the best imaginable political outcome; seek instead to avoid the worst.

The problem is, though, the Trump base is in a cult and immune to such reasoning.  How the party and its "establishment" is going to deal with that is the puzzle.  (Even though I suspect they will hope that his legal problems will help solve it, we know that Trump will just paint those as the Deep State against him, and fund raise off it.)

 

 

Demography before and after 8 billion

 The Washington Post has an interactive graphic article that lets you put in your age and then learn some specific facts.  I was a bit surprised by much of it.  Here are a bunch of screenshots:

I was expecting more people of my age....

Again, way to make me feel old.

Great.  Somehow, the fact that a handful  of the currently most politically dysfunctional countries are on the path of big population increase doesn't fill me with confidence.

I will add a video to this later...

 

Update:  Here it is.  John Green giving a quick run down on historical demography:

 

Some reasons why DeSantis is popular in Florida

The Washington Post has a piece by Jim Geraghty (from National Review) entitled DeSantis would pave the way for a post-Trump GOP return to normal, and it does offer some explanation as to why he did so well in Florida.

I don't want to come across as a DeSantis apologist, but the article makes its case pretty well, I think.  For example, as I said in an earlier post the "Don't Say Gay" stuff was Right wing populist, but it was more a case of legislative virtue signalling than making dramatic changes:

Next to his pandemic policies, DeSantis might be best known for Florida’s Parental Rights in Education Act — better known by the name its critics gave it, the “don’t say gay” law. Liberals howled that the measure was pure discrimination, targeting teachers and students who wanted to discuss sexual matters openly. But many Florida parents saw it as a common-sense restriction keeping explicit materials out of elementary school classrooms.

(That said, the move then to punish Disney for complaining about it shows a dangerous side - what's he willing to do to Google and Meta in future, I wonder.)

But as Geraghty argues, DeSantis is not really as "Trumpy" in policy as it might initially seem:

If DeSantis the nominee became president, Democrats and Republicans would no doubt disagree just as strongly as before. But there would be one big difference: They’d spend more time arguing about policy and what the federal government ought to do, and less about whatever crazy thing Trump said or did that day.

Independents and centrists might find themselves disappointed or irked with a President DeSantis. But they’d be irked within normal parameters, not fearing that he’d burn the country down in a fit of rage because he thinks someone wasn’t being fair to him.

As is all too well known, Trump on social media is a taunter, a belittler, a braggart. Compare that with DeSantis’s Twitter feed, which might or might not be administered by the governor: It is an anodyne scroll of alerts about the weather, news about Florida government initiatives and occasional retweets of messages from his wife, Casey, on such controversial matters as having “a happy and safe Halloween.”

 And this next part is pretty important:

It’s worth noting that DeSantis, unlike many elected Republicans, has never claimed the 2020 presidential election was rigged or stolen, and he rejected calls for a statewide audit of Florida’s 2020 vote. It would have been preferable if DeSantis hadn’t campaigned in the midterms for bona fide election deniers such as Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Kari Lake in Arizona, but that might be too much to expect of any Republican with aspirations for higher office. By the low standards of today’s GOP, though, a Republican who ignored Trump’s 2020 bellyaching is a step in the right direction.

Now we get to the "doesn't always govern like a Republican" part:

If you let the smoke clear from the high-profile fights over pandemic policies and parental rights in education, DeSantis emerges as a committed conservative, yes, but also one with some ideological wrinkles that those on the left might find surprising.

As governor, DeSantis increased spending on environmental projects by $1.5 billion compared with the previous four years.

He and the state legislature approved $800 million to increase salaries and raises for teachers across Florida, boosting the average starting salary to at least $47,000 a year, ninth-highest in the nation.

DeSantis also launched a $100 million program for home purchases by educators, health-care professionals, child-care workers, law enforcement officers, firefighters and veterans or active members of the military.

Yes, on abortion rights, DeSantis is much more conservative than liberals would prefer, but not so drastic as leaders in many other red states. In April, he signed a law making abortion legal until the 15th week of pregnancy, or later to protect the mother from injury or death. DeSantis seems content for his state’s laws to align with those of many European countries — banning elective abortions after 15 weeks, with certain exceptions for a woman’s health.

Every now and then, DeSantis takes the not-so-conservative path when it’s popular with his constituents. This doesn’t mean liberals will embrace him; it’s just an observation that a DeSantis presidency wouldn’t mean enduring four years of an inflexible, hardcore conservative. There would be occasional areas of agreement.

On the matter of climate change and the environment, this article in The Guardian suggests that he is a very mixed bag, who seem willing to play up to climate change denial when it suits (although one would think the reality of his State going literally underwater more frequently must make that hard to sustain.  I wonder if the reality is that the advanced average age of Floridians means that their attitude is usually "well, yes, seems it might be a problem, but I won't be around to see how bad it gets.")  

An article in Time explains it this way:

DeSantis has piloted a new Republican approach to climate change by spending money on climate adaption but not on mitigation. In other words, he has sought to pay for his state to adapt to a changing climate but not to address its greenhouse gas emissions, the root causes of climate change. DeSantis’ Resilient Florida Program is politically savvy, passing nearly unanimously in a bipartisan vote in 2021 and receiving enthusiastic plaudits from local officials. And, experts say, it’s also good policy that will help allocate money to the places that need it the most. But it does nothing to cut carbon pollution, and DeSantis has dismissed such efforts as “left-wing stuff.” And there’s another issue: adaption alone isn’t enough. Florida is at risk of hundreds of billions of dollars in climate damage in the coming decades; the program allocates hundreds of millions. Even with state adaptation funds, climate change presents a dire, potentially cataclysmic problem for the state.

There are lessons in Florida’s shifting climate politics. DeSantis’ embrace of climate adaptation is an indicator that climate change will lead even the most hardened ideologues to acknowledge the real harm caused by a warming planet. But his approach should also alarm anyone concerned about the future. We will all be in trouble if merely bracing for impact becomes a mainstream approach to address climate change in the U.S.

Yeah, he's not good; but (how to put this) not completely outside the bounds of reason, which seems all that you can hope for on the Right at the moment.

 

We will miss laughing at the soft filter - Kari Lake is done

As the Guardian notes:

The Democratic candidate for governor in Arizona, Katie Hobbs, has defeated her far-right, Trump-endorsed opponent, staving off a major threat to voting rights in the state.

Hobbs, who is Arizona’s outgoing secretary of state, defeated Kari Lake, a former TV anchor who denies the 2020 election results. Lake has refused to say if she would accept defeat this time around but tweeted “Arizonans know BS when they see it” after Monday’s result emerged. The Associated Press projected Hobbs as the winner on Monday evening with more than 95% of votes reported.

I haven't read all that much about her before, but I see this article in The Atlantic sets out the reasons to believe she is a giant, opportuntistic, political fake:

I talked with half a dozen of Lake’s former Fox 10 co-workers for this story, and all but one requested anonymity—partly because current employees are not authorized to talk to reporters about Lake, and partly because they fear retaliation from the candidate and her supporters. She was demanding, they told me, and always wanted her lighting just so. She would sometimes belittle the production staff. But she was good at her job, fluent and warm on camera. Viewers liked her.

Back then, most of her friends at work assumed that she was politically liberal. She was a casual Buddhist, they said, and she’d donated to John Kerry and Barack Obama. She’d once called for amnesty for the roughly 11 million immigrants living in America illegally. (Lake was reportedly a Republican before she registered as an independent in 2006, and as a Democrat in 2008. She reregistered as a Republican in 2012.) Plus, Lake was fun. She liked to host dinner parties, and entertained guests with her bawdy sense of humor. She was good friends with some of the gay men in the newsroom—she’d vacationed with a few on occasion. And she sometimes attended drag shows at a local bar with other newsroom staff, former colleagues and friends told me. She even became friends with the well-known Phoenix drag queen, Barbra Seville. Lake “was the queen of the gays!” a former colleague told me.

Nowadays, Lake wears a small gold cross on a chain around her neck. She prays before rallies and has warned of the dangers of “drag-queen story hour.” “They kicked God out of schools and welcomed the Drag Queens,” she tweeted in June. “They took down our Flag and replaced it with a rainbow.” This is puzzling and hurtful to Lake’s former friends. Lake was not always the “anti-choice, anti-science, election-denying caricature that she’s become,” Richard Stevens, who performs as Seville, told me. A former colleague sighed when I asked him about Lake’s evolution, “It’s like the death of a friend.” (Lake’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment for this story. Previously, her campaign has acknowledged that Stevens was “once a friend” and that she attended an event with a “Marilyn Monroe impersonator,” but has accused Stevens of spreading “defamatory lies.”)

Before her campaign, Lake had praise for the late Senator John McCain, and she was friends with his son Jimmy for years. But during her bid, Lake has repeatedly attacked the late Arizona politician. “It’s extremely upsetting on a personal level,” Meghan McCain, the senator’s daughter, told me. “I don’t know if it’s authentic,” she added, referring to Lake’s campaign persona, but “she is a savant at imitating Trump.”....

People change. But some people who knew Lake view her evolution—and her unflinching support for Trump—as mostly an act. Lake has always been good at image management, Diana Pike, the former HR director at Fox 10, told me. “She’s a performer.” Lake “read the room, took the temperature, and realized there’s an anti-media sentiment for a lot of people,” Stevens said. “Rather than using her platform to fix it, she chose to throw fuel on that fire.”

Update:    lulz - 

The trans lobby is going to be upset

The New York Times has a lengthy article on the very medically controversial question of puberty blockers for trans youth - covering not only the risk of osteoporosis, but other issues (questions about the effect on brain development are being raised now too, apparently.)

Vat produced protein in the news again

The Guardian reports:

Enough protein to feed the entire world could be produced on an area of land smaller than London if we replace animal farming with factories producing micro-organisms, a campaign has said.

The Reboot Food manifesto argues that three-quarters of the world’s farmland should be rewilded instead.

That's an awful lot of farmers without a living anymore.  Is that how much they reckon is devoted to growing animals, and the food to feed animals?

Anyway, I've been interested in lab grown protein (not lab grown meat) ever since I read an article or interview about it years ago which I haven't been able to track down again.

George Monbiot is on board, which is a bit of a worry, given that my impression is that he does come with some ideas that are wildly unlikely to be implemented, such as the part of his 2006 article which included:

 Legislate for the closure of all out-of-town superstores, and their replacement with a warehouse and delivery system. Shops use a staggering amount of energy (six times as much electricity per square metre as factories, for example), and major reductions are hard to achieve: Tesco’s “state of the art” energy-saving store at Diss has managed to cut its energy use by only 20%(6). Warehouses containing the same quantity of goods use roughly 5% of the energy(7). Out-of-town shops are also hard-wired to the car – delivery vehicles use 70% less fuel(8). Timescale: fully implemented by 2012.

(He's a bit like the Green Elon Musk - instead of "we can have 100,000 colonists on Mars within 25 years" it's "we can change retail shop completely in the space of 6 years".)

Anyway, back to vat grown protein:

They say protein from precision fermentation is up to 40,900 times more land efficient than beef, making it technically feasible to produce the world’s protein on an area of land smaller than Greater London.

Some forms of precision fermentation are being deployed already in the US, including a process that can make the milk proteins responsible for the fatty, tangy taste in ice-cream usually achieved by dairy.

The Guardian columnist George Monbiot, who wrote about this potential solution in his recent book Regenesis, is supporting the campaign.

He said: “The elephant in the room at Cop27 is the cow. But thankfully this time, there really is a recipe for success. By rebooting our food systems with precision fermentation we can phase out animal agriculture while greatly increasing the amount of protein available for human consumption.”

But - I think they ought to be producing some actual product from it, and not just Quorn, which is pretty underwhelming in texture if you ask me.  

Hopefully, it is produced cheaper than animal meat too.   There has been a lot of talk recently about the falling "plant based meat" sales in the US (and I expect, Australia.)  Here's an article from the Washington Post last week.   I think what has happened is too many so-so quality manufacturers have rushed into market based on dubious marketing research and early enthusiasm for just a couple of hamburger products (Impossible and Beyond's burgers).  And as I have said before, I think both of these are very good, taste wise.  But they are both also considerably more expensive than a cheap old mince burger.    

I think plant based meat would sell better if it was cheaper than animal meat:  people could at least justify the "doesn't taste quite as good as real meat" factor by at least figuring they have saved a bit of  money.  And given that the plant based burgers are based on what seem like pretty cheap ingredients (for the most part, like pea protein powder, which I think is the basis of a lot of some gym junkies protein drinks), it does seem that they should be economical compared to the cost of feeding, transporting, killing and butchering a cow.

But they aren't.

Moderation fail

So dover beach's Blog for Ageing Reactionaries is arguing with monty about the MAGA line that young single women (who voted against Republicans) are obviously all unhappy and don't know what's good for them (namely, getting married, stop working and having kids.)  This led to mention of lesbians, and, generically, how gay people never end up happy.  Which led to this:

I am mildly curious as to whether allegedly serious Catholic dover beach leaves up a comment that, obviously, is virtually a Nazi level justification for the terrible treatment of all gay people.  

Update:   I clicked on "Report comment" link yesterday, which is meant to alert dover beach to a problematic comment. He has also been on the site since it was posted.

This morning, the comment is still there, now with 4 likes!:

Once again, I note my absolute disgust with dover beach, who facilitates the promulgation of hatred in a way that is clearly against the teaching of his own Church.  

Lost Lake

God knows, I'm not normally that interested in who wins the Governor races in America, let alone Arizona in particular, but that Kari Lake is so awful I am very pleased to see that she is not picking up the votes she thought she would in today's "drop".  It makes it look very unlikely that she will win.

I can be pretty confident of this, because with today's "drop", stupid Gateway Pundit has upped it's "that's impossible, an obvious election fraud is happening right before our eyes" game.  I will link, so you can read how evidence free that site likes to be.  For example:

Kari Lake gained only 8,911 in Maricopa!

So now we are supposed to believe that Democrats came out in force on Election Day!  What a disgusting lie!

This is the standard of evidence required on the MAGA Right:  "You're saying we lost?  That's impossible!  It is obviously fraud."

A cool movie worth seeing

Finally caught up with Dune (part 1) on Netflix on the weekend, and I have to say I was very impressed.

I have previously criticised Denis Villeneune for making movies which look great but are still not satisfying.  There is a certain coldness about much of his work  - I'm thinking of the over praised Arrival and Blade Runner 2049, for examples.  And I could say the same about Dune, except that I reckon this time it works for the source material.   (Not that I have read the book, but I am basically familiar with the story.)  

I never saw all of David Lynch's version, but the bits I did watch (perhaps on VHS?) looked kind of ludicrous in comparison.  In fact, I think the main thing people remember about the film is the quasi camp costume and set design - has anyone ever worked out whose fault that was?   Because Villeneune's version just felt exactly right - all brutalism in the building design, and a sort of organic look to some of the space craft.   A lot of it was dark too, but not "can't work out what's going on dark" as so many people complain about in the likes of Game of Thrones.

Anyway, a pretty great film.  I am very glad it made enough money to get the second bit made.

Update:  speaking of Messianic fantasies:  

Things can turn around suddenly

After feeling bad about the state of the world a couple of weekends ago, things have taken a surprisingly strong turn for the better.

Republicans convincingly lost the mid terms (even if they manage a slim House majority - but it will be exquisite if they don't even get that);  it is indeed looking likely that this is a sign that Trump will be loosing power over the party - although hopefully not without a bitter and damaging intra party civil war;  Elon Musk made himself look foolish in the extreme with his harebrained Twitter management (which is only a good thing in that it might make some people finally realise that his "we're ready to go to Mars in a decade or so" boosterism is just wishful thinking with no basis in reality; Russia really does seem to be doing badly in Ukraine; Europe has a lot of alternative gas for the winter saved up; and finally, it seems crypto's reputation is self destructing, as many have been predicting for years while it pointlessly spewed out greenhouse gases.   

Of course, everything could fall apart again if China decided to make a move on Taiwan.  But let's hope this idea just fades again...   

More scenes from Singapore

There's a large monastery and temple complex in the middle of Singapore, the Kong Meng San Phor Kark See Monastery, which is not exactly on the usual tourist path, but it has some impressive features:

Okay, so this impressively large concrete building (it's the roof that makes it look so eyecatching) is not in fact a temple, but a "memorial hall", and the ground floor seemed to serve food, but I don't know if they do to just anyone.  We got there just after lunch, and the floor was being cleaned, and we were not allowed in.  

In fact, as I said at the start, the whole place is not exactly set up as tourist friendly:  there is nothing really at the entry to explain where to go or what to do, for example.  I don't think it has its own website, either, but here is the Wikipedia entry.   There is an office which seems to cater to people who are going there to do courses, and a gift shop with some (rather expensive) items for sale.   They obviously don't mind tourists being there - as you will see, there are explanatory signs in front of most of the individual temples, but that's about it.   (Oh, there is a large crematorium on the grounds too, and one of the buildings is a columbarium for storing the ashes, so I can understand why you don't want to make too touristy.) 

So one of the larger "halls", with no one else in it on the week day when we were there:

 

So, you can read for yourself what this other particular hall, with its very colourful decoration, is about.

The building to the left is in fact a large library, no doubt used by the students who stay at the monastery, but I think open to the public as well.   I did not go on, but I will next time!

 

In any event, over near the office part, they were giving out free books on Buddhism, and I took one which talks about Chinese Buddhism, but I have yet to read it.  Still - free books, who can complain?

 

Next, a tree with some history behind it.   I am not familiar with how many trees there are around the world supposedly descended from the "original" Bodhi tree, but as with the matter of the number of Buddha's teeth around the place, I would not be surprised if there was reason for skepticism.

The whole grounds, and all of the buildings, are extremely well kept and maintained, giving the impression (as does the Buddha's Tooth temple in town) that Singaporean Buddhism is extremely well funded.  In fact, here is an extract from the Wikipedia page exactly on that point:

In the same year in October 2007, the temple was one of seven religious groups ordered by the Commissioner of Charities (COC) to open their books to auditors.^[9] With an annual income of S$14.95 million, it had one of the largest incomes among the charities under the COC's direct purview. Its main income sources were crematorium and columbarium services, prayer services and donations. Between November 2007 and June 2008, the monastery also reportedly gave free meals to about 200 people daily,^[10] clarifying their prayer and meditation practices instead of relying on probable means of incomes such as exorcism.^[11]

Well, actually, that doesn't seem all that big an income for such a physically large complex.  (My photos don't show it all.)   Also, I didn't know that Buddhists made income from exorcism.   Maybe just Chinese Buddhism?   Although here is an article about it in Vietnam:

With nearly 80% of Vietnamese people holding Buddhist beliefs in some form, Buddhism-based healing is popular in Vietnam. Coupled with cultural stigma against seeking formal mental health services, Vietnamese people with psychological needs frequently seek different forms of healing at Buddhist temples, including exorcism and spirit-calling. In this article, I present case vignettes of exorcism and spirit-calling that I documented during my ethnographic study in Vietnam. Based on these cases, I will discuss the healing impact of spiritual activities like Buddhism-based exorcism and spirit-calling for Vietnamese people and implications for social work in Vietnam and elsewhere.

And buddhaweekly.com has a longer article about it.   I must admit, I have wondered whether anyone has studied the utility of conducting an exorcism rite (not a "real" one, with a real priest - as they will only do it if they think it is a real possession) but a "placebo" style rite on a person with mental illness who thinks they might be possessed.

Perhaps hard to get that past the ethics committee!

When I Google the topic, I see there is a rather interesting article from 2009 called "Placebo Controls, Exorcisms and the Devil" which is worth a look, too.  In fact, it might deserve its own post.

All interesting...

 

Pick my ending! Pick my ending!

Some slightly concerning news:

Rumors are swirling about Disney’s recent test-screenings of James Mangold’s “Indiana Jones 5.” Supposedly, a handful of different endings have been tested and audiences haven’t liked any of them. Furthermore, the rumors indicate that Disney is in a panic over the screenings and that they’re worried the movie will bomb.

One of the endings, which was said to be the least popular one, had Phoebe-Waller Bridge replacing Harrison Ford at the end of the movie. Presumably, this would set up the franchise for further sequels with Ford not returning. Another unpopular conclusion had Ford’s Indiana Jones dying.

The last thing Disney needs is another Indiana Jones movie bombing with audiences, especially after the major shrug that greeted “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”. I’m still holding out hope that this fifth installment will be a return to form, but, I won’t lie, I’m concerned.

There's time to shoot and insert my ending, which I've stated here before, several times [gosh - starting in 2007!]:   Indiana Jones needs to be shown as a late addition to the line of people entering the mothership at the end of Close Encounters of the Third Kind.  

You know it makes sense.

I do not want to be paid (well not much) for this brilliant idea - I reckon $100,000 would do it.

The "Mary Kay Mussolini" still doing video with a soft glow

It amuses me no end when you see Lake on a split screen, with one side (never hers) looking like normal, crisply clear video, and the other with the "smear of vaseline on the lens" look, similar to what used to happen sometimes to face shots of Cybil Shepherd in Moonlighting, if I recall correctly.   (I did like Cybil, though.)

Excellent new definition spotted

Also - OMG, I just saw a Kari Lake ad, in which she literally swings a sledgehammer into some TVs while she decries how "corrupt" the leftist MSM is.   Honestly, if a politician in Australia used such advertising, they would be laughed out of contention.  I don't think we appreciate how crazy American political advertising can be.
 

Some relevant tweets about the Trump problem

Update:   Erik Wemple at Washington Post provides the usual caution that some seem to be forgetting:  Murdoch press has attacked Trump before, but Fox News continues the tongue bath:

All these examples yield an important lesson about the federalism that prevails in the Murdoch media empire. It’s apparently just fine that the mogul’s print publications adopt one stance toward Trump while opinion hosts at his most influential outlet, Fox News, promote an entirely different one. For while the newspapers have attacked Trump, Hannity has given the former president airtime in softball interview after softball interview. He also played a central role in boosting Trump’s midterm agenda, presiding over puffy events and interviews with multiple Republican candidates.

Now, in the midst of all the Murdoch murmuring, Semafor reporters Shelby Talcott and David Weigel report that the Hannity-Trump alliance might be foundering. Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz lost his Pennsylvania campaign against Democrat John Fetterman despite Hannity’s strong and persistent advocacy for Oz. Trump emerged from election night “upset” with Hannity, according to Talcott and Weigel.

Let’s put that in context: Prime-time anchors at Fox News have extraordinary autonomy to say and do what they want. Hannity has used that latitude to boost Trump rhetorically as well as crossing over into political activism on his behalf. This behavior has persisted ever since Trump has been at the center of national politics.

On Wednesday night, in his first show since the Republicans’ disappointing midterm showing, Hannity steered away from discussing the former president, focusing instead on the Republican candidates who won and the pitfalls of those who “overpromise” and “under-deliver.” After seven years of praising Trump, Hannity is unlikely to shift gears just because others in the Murdoch empire have written some critical editorials. If Trump’s fortunes keep sliding, the host might one day embrace alternatives.

One day.

And make no mistake: A Hannity breakup with Trump — which might just entail a revolt among Hannity’s core viewers — would be the greatest spectacle in cable-news history.

Yes:  unless Hannity and (more importantly, I think) Tucker Carlson stop supporting Trump, there is no hope of a "civil" transfer of leadership power to DeSantis, or anyone.   

 

For posterity

Dover beach, the conspiracy addled conservative Catholic who runs the Australian home for ageing angry conservatives reactionaries,  opined:

Here is my prediction. In the Senate, like Gingrich, I think we are looking at a 53-55 R majority. In the House, I think we can expect something in the low 240s. Surprises in the Senate, I think, may include pick-ups in the NH and NV. I think Walker will win the GA Senate convincingly less so Masters but he is a very good candidate and future of the party so I hope to see him get through and pick-up the Senate seat. Lake’s strong run for AZ Gov and the generic support for R should lift him over the line.

On the election night:

He's also stopped with the "of course the Russians know what they're doing" line of (what's the opposite of passive aggression? Passive cheerleading?) regarding Ukraine.

He's foolish - doesn't recognise Right wing commentary con men for what they are - and obnoxiously arrogant, but doesn't know it. 

 

Digging into 20,000 years of crap

A short item at the Nature website features this photo:

 and explains that it's no ordinary rock she's leaning on:

This might look like an ordinary rock formation, but the black material is actually preserved faeces and urine from a small mammal called a rock hyrax (Procavia capensis).

Hyraxes, which are common in Africa and the Middle East, look like groundhogs but are more closely related to manatees and elephants. They live in crevasses and pick one spot to use as a latrine. The use of the same spot over tens of thousands of years creates a layered refuse heap known as a midden that scientists can mine for palaeoclimatic data. I specialize in examining the pollen in these dungheaps for information about the vegetation and climate of the past.

Our team found this site in May, in the Cape Fold Belt mountains of South Africa, using a drone to help investigate crevasses. We were excited when we saw the extent of this midden; we think it covers at least 20,000 years.

 The article fails to include a photo f a rock hyrax, so I had to Google it:

 Cute!  And very considerate, not pooping all over the place.  :)

Considering DeSantis

I really don't follow State level American politics all that closely - who has the time, honestly - so it's not like I have watched DeSantis much at all.   But we are being hit with a wave of Right wing admiration for him for being a Right wing culture warrior who wins (latest example - the recently divorcing Rod Dreher) - and I have to say it's strong enough that I am starting to think Trump is not going to survive it. 

So, there are going to be many, many more words spilt on analysis as to why DeSantis did so well.  I have some guesses of my own, but stand to be corrected on any of them:

*  the retirees there are not likely to be concerned about abortion as an issue.  Doesn't affect them.  And Florida is full of older folk, as this map shows:

 

* Some have been saying that DeSantis looked credible during the recent hurricane recovery - and it is true, even I noticed that he did openly thank Biden for the help and co-operation from the Federal level in a way one would find it hard imagining Trump (if in his place) ever doing. (Trump throwing paper towels to victims was one of the worst images to come out of his presidency.)   So yeah, it's easy to understand DeSantis getting a boost from that, and he is capable of playing "normal politician, with normal manners" at times, when appropriate.

* Similarly, lots of folk are saying that his "keep open under Covid" approach went down well in a State full of tourism businesses.   I think age may be a factor in that too - seems to me that the older a Right winger is, the more likely they are to value convenience over risk.   They're probably the first to have rushed back to the cruise lines, for example.   

* Some say that the Democrats are very poorly organised in Florida, but I have no idea why that is the case.

* The Big Question:  how much does the culture warrior, anti-woke, status of the "Don't say Gay" governor factor into his electoral success?   I wonder if concerns about school kids exposure to "gay" material in school is higher amongst the older population than actual school parents?  I would have to look for some survey results on that.   But, here I will be honest and say that, at least on this aspect of the culture wars, I thought that DeSantis was kind of clever, as he could easily claim the law was doing something most parents would accept - that you don't need to go out of your way to "teach" kids about gay or alternative relationships during early school:

The new law, championed by Florida’s GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, bans lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade as well as material that is not deemed age-appropriate. Most educators do not expect a major change in lesson plans — one of the key reasons critics cited in saying the law was unnecessary was that teachers do not cover such subjects in early grades anyway.

But some worry it sets a tone that will leave LGBTQ teachers and kids feeling ostracized.  

Some gay and lesbian teachers (or Disney executives) who would turn up on Tik Tok claiming that took every opportunity to insert "gay" narratives pretty much were asking for pushback, and DeSantis took it up enthusiastically.   And it seems to me arguable that the response was -  shall we say - more moderate than it could have been.  More like right wing virtue signalling, perhaps.

Still, as I said recently, I don't see much in the way of broad charisma - and I see that apparently Ross Douthat would agree:

Now, there are various ways that this analysis might overstate the DeSantis case. There are reasons apart from his political skills that Florida has trended sharply to the right, and his message and persona might not yield the same results elsewhere. You can’t base a 2024 campaign just on being the guy who kept a sunny vacation destination open for business in 2021 (and drew many right-of-center migrants in the process). You can’t assume that the Hispanic vote nationwide will follow the same patterns as in South Florida. You can’t count on DeSantis’s peculiar kind of anti-charisma playing nationally the way it has played in his home state.

And, who knows:  his success may well go to his head and lead to overreach.

But overall, we do have to remember:  Florida is a weird kind of place.  

Update: I forgot about the ridiculous "con illegal immigrants into going to Martha's Vineyard" exercise, which I reckon shows a dangerous inclination to overreach which is going to get him into trouble.  

And a couple of tweets expressing skepticism of his appeal on a national stage:

Advice I didn't need

There must be enough alternative medicine sites around promoting "urine therapies" that The Conversation has run an article warning against things like drinking urine.  

It does note that urine normally doesn't contain a lot of bugs:

In most cases only very low levels of bacteria are excreted in urine. But the idea urine might be sterile is simply a myth. The word sterile means “completely clean and free from dirt and bacteria”.

Our body is full of resident bacterial colonies that maintain our health and assist with general daily functions. This means most of our body is not sterile, and the bladder is no exception.

A high level of bacteria is usually associated with urinary tract infections. Nonetheless, there’s an ever-growing body of research identifying all kinds of healthy bacteria living in our bladder, which can be excreted in the urine of healthy people. 

But still warns against, ahem, peeing in the shower:

Peeing in the shower is also a no-no, as urine can cause infections if it comes in contact with cuts or wounds on your legs. This practice can even make disorders such as overactive bladder or incontinence worse, by causing our brains to associate running water with the “need to pee”. 

However, this last line seems a little over the top:

If you accidentally drink urine, call your local poisons information centre for advice.

The embarrassment factor of explaining how a person came to accidentally drink it must be high, though...

 

Election analysis noted

 

Although parts of Fox News have apparently been flying the "DeSantis is the new Republican leader" line, I would think that Carlson's and Hannity's take on whether Trump or DeSantis should be the next candidate is going to be more important.     

Update:  Oh, the (quite influential, I think) professional wingnut blog Powerline has John Hinderaker strongly attacking Trump:

At this point, Trump is a giant anvil around the neck of the Republican Party. In many areas, likely most, he is absolute poison. To be associated with Trump is to lose. Pretty much everything he has done in the last two years has been not just ill-advised but massively destructive to the Republican Party and to the United States. He has teased a “big announcement” in the next few days. I hope he announces that he is moving to Bulgaria.

Oh look, 53 minutes of Biden sounding reasonable and presidential

This happened to be streaming live this morning on Youtube, so I got to watch Biden deliver prepared comments, but then go on to take an extensive number of questions from the Press.   He played it very straight, Presidential, and reasonable; promising to try to work with Republicans to get things done, but also saying there are key initiatives he is not to going to go back on.  Pointed out that even with a majority in the House, if it not overwhelming, there is always hope to move some Republicans towards consensus support on certain things.  Repeated his optimism for America going forward.   And, of course, not sounding the least bit like someone suffering dementia:

 

On that last point - if I haven't made it clear before, this is why I say "journalists" or opinion makers who persist in building a narrative of "dementia Joe" (based on things like 5 second clips of his not knowing which way he is meant to leave a stage) deserve zero respect and are appalling people. And the right wingers who repeat this line are dumb and gullible and need to be sat down and made to watch material like this video and then be challenged "seriously, you think this is a man who is so feeble he doesn't know what he's doing?"

Lots of "Trump in trouble" talk

Many people already speculating that a Trump/DeSantis showdown over the Presidential nomination must now happen, given Trump's high profile mid term picks did pretty poorly, and DeSantis did so well.  Some say DeSantis should sit it out and run in 2028 - he's only 44 (gawd - he could pass for older.)   But surely, there are enough in the GOP to know that Trump won't win in 2024??   Biden may not be super popular, but Trump is extremely damaged goods outside of his cult following, and stuck in stale repetition.    Even the ageing Australian dimwits at the post Catallaxy blogs are mostly against Trump running again.

Finally, are we going to have an actual confrontation between the Trump MAGA idiot wing of the Party, and the rest of it??   I hope so.

And incidentally, I don't think DeSantis has any noticeable charisma at all.  I don't expect him to do well at the national level.

He's taking it well

Jim Hoft, of prime wingnut disinformation site Gateway Pundit, is taking the mid term election results in his stride [sarc]:

BLOOD MOON BLOODBATH… Democrats Steal Midterms, Communism Comes Home to America… Crime, Inflation, Record Gas Prices, War, Open Borders and Corruption WIN BIG  

Why there won't be a civil war

There are lots of seats still up for grabs, but I took a screenshot of this from the NYT to show how red and blue is pretty mixed up within most states:

At the time of writing - nothing is 100% clear, except that it was not a "red wave".   Seems most likely that the Senate may be the same as it was (Dem control with the VP vote), but lose the Reps by a small number.  (Although some are saying it is still conceivable that the Dems keep the Reps by one.  That would be impressive...)

She is truly awful

Her losing today would be one of the greatest highlights:

Update:  this amused me -

Droughts and floods under climate change - a good explanation

I strongly recommend this video, which explains clearly the issue which millions of climate change denialists have clung to for a decade or two:  climate change can mean both worse floods and worse droughts.  It's not that hard to understand, but it does have its complications (in terms of the different effects in different parts of the globe):

 

The video also brings to my attention a massive American historical flood of which I was unaware - the Californian one of 1861-2. 

Pre-emptive conspiracy to comfort themselves

It's remarkable - the way they pre-arm themselves with conspiracy claims as the being the only reason they could possibly lose.   Read about it at the Washington Post (gift link.)

Prominent Republicans who do not call out this divisive fantasy BS on their own side are at the core of the problem.

Consider the chickens of Singapore

One of the most surprising things about Singapore is that it's not only so lushly green and fecund with plant life, but it's increasingly attractive to wild animal life.   I haven't managed to see the otters yet, but this last recent trip, it became quickly obvious that wild chickens are now a "thing" there.   

The photo above was near my hotel, pretty close to Chinatown, and as you can see, the busy road was no deterrent.  (It was, perhaps, thinking about crossing it...ha ha.)  This was not the only one I saw.  While having dinner at a footpath place there were a few on the nearby bit of lawn one evening.

And this recent article explains what's been going on:

Since 2020, the National Parks Board (NParks) has received more than 1,000 reports annually about free-ranging chickens, said Ms Jessica Kwok, group director of NParks’ Animal and Veterinary Service (AVS).

Animal Concerns Research and Education Society's (ACRES) co-chief executive Anbarasi Boopal told CNA that the animal welfare group has seen an increase in feedback related to the chickens. There were nine reports in 2019 as compared to 18 reports last year and 14 reports in 2022 so far, she said. 

Feedback came from locations “more or less” all over Singapore, such as Marine Parade, Pasir Ris, and Ang Mo Kio, said Ms Anbarasi.

Add to that list - Tanjong Pagar, where I saw "my" chickens.  I think they are more widespread than even that recent article notes.  More from it:

The issue of wild chickens came to the fore in 2017, when the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority of Singapore (AVA) revealed that it put down 24 chickens that were wandering around Thomson View and Blocks 452 to 454 Sin Ming Avenue. There were about 20 complaints from residents there, mainly about noise.

The incident sparked an outcry. AVA later clarified that it was not because of complaints of noise, but the risk of exposure to bird flu that prompted them to cull the chickens in areas where there are “relatively high numbers” of them.

Since then, a task force has been set up to deal with the chicken population at Sin Ming.

But just a moment - was my chicken actually a "junglefowl":

At the same time, not all wild birds are alike.

Often confused for wild chickens, native red junglefowl can also be spotted throughout Singapore even though they were rare a decade or so ago.

While they may look similar to chickens, they have a number of characteristics that set them apart, said Dr Yong Ding Li, the regional coordinator for migratory bird conservation and an ornithologist at BirdLife International.

These junglefowl have grey legs, unlike domestic chickens which generally have yellow legs. They also have a shorter and more abrupt call and a white tuft of feathers on their rump. However, many hybrids exist and it can be hard to tell them apart.

"It's very common that junglefowl come into contact with these farm chickens and they hybridise on and off, on and off, so the genes of these junglefowl and chicken have been mixing," he said.

Junglefowl have become increasingly common over the last few decades as they have "colonised" more habitats across the island, added Dr Yong.

In the early 2000s, red junglefowl were mostly found in the Western Catchment Area and Pulau Ubin, but they can now be spotted in many urban areas and most nature reserves, he added.

OK, so maybe my picture is a fine specimen of a junglefowl, but it's still surprising that such a densely packed city like Singapore has more of them around than ever before.  (Or, I guess, maybe it's just a case of reduced bushland in which to hide.)

Anyway, I like seeing them.