About that indigenous Voice referendum

This is how I currently see it:

1.   It is correct to believe that the publicity given to the high crime rate in the Northern Territory, and elsewhere (including the recent high profile murder in Brisbane), from indigenous offenders is not going to help with the referendum to give a constitutional voice to aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders.  Voting "yes" will be seen by some as akin to rewarding anti-social behaviour and a political grouping that has no control over its lawless members. 

2.  I understand the irony in this - the indigenous advocacy world will insist that because they haven't had the type of input needed to government, the social situation has deteriorated, and the Voice is what is needed, in the long run, to help address entrenched disadvantage, etc.  

3.   But the problem is - let's be honest here - what really is the basis for believing that this means of giving input into government decisions has any prospect of achieving better results on the ground than that of past and current input?   I mean, the final report of the Indigenous Voice Co-design Process makes it 100% clear that there is already a lot of effort to gain local input, even after ATSIC was wound up, and the Voice seems to be just more of the same.   This example of the (awful) bureaucratic writing style of the report explains:

I can't help but feel that the whole Voice idea is just an attempt at creating some sort of supercharged resurrected version of ATSIC - have a look at this article about it worked while it existed - which is very much about bureaucratic empire building that doesn't address the fundamental problem of internal conflict within the world of indigenous advocacy, which is my next point.       

 4.   Isn't the problem that indigenous politics is fraught with internal dissent, particularly over the extent to which government (or local communities) can be "paternalistic" in trying to address issues such as alcohol and drug use, domestic violence, and how people can spend their money?    There are always elements within indigenous advocacy - often within the same community - which will welcome strict controls as the only way to make a dysfunctional community safer, and other elements which will decry such steps as being against freedom, self control and self determination.     

How is the Voice going to help with that fundamental problem?   

 5.   Unfortunately, I think there is some truth to the conservative criticism that aboriginal advocacy has become dominated by urban academia (with, for whatever reason, a very heavy slant towards women) for whom university jobs and consultation to government are a solid way to earn a living, without having to experience the worst of lived realities.  There is also an increasing radicalism to a lot of  indigenous advocacy (especially from the young) - and it's as wildly impractical as the communists of the 50's and 60's thinking that if only capitalism could be overthrown and we all start again, every problem could be fixed.    Even someone like Noel Pearson, who still will sometimes sound conservative-ish on matters such as the importance of education to enable young people to grow up and engage in the "real" economy, is now prone to hyperbole if he doesn't get his way, with this unhelpful contribution:

Pearson reduced the issue to the simple question: “Are we going to vote ‘yes’ for reconciliation through constitutional recognition?”

“This year is the most important year in the past 235 […] and this referendum is the most important question concerning Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians since the first fleet.

"What is at stake is the chance for reconciliation. And if this referendum is kiboshed through game playing and a spoiling game by the opposition, we will lose the opportunity I think forever,” Pearson told the ABC.

If the referendum were lost, “then I can’t see how the future will be anything other than protest. The Indigenous presence in this country will forever be associated with protest”, rather than reconciliation being achieved.

6.  The increased radicalism in rhetoric is not going to help - continually encouraging economically disadvantaged people to believe that their problems are always someone else's fault is not a winning strategy, at least when you are numerically a small percentage of the entire population.   At a time when there is genuine (and justified) concern over increased lawlessness amongst indigenous youth, it is positively counter-productive.  

7.   Here is how I saw the swings in political views on indigenous matters in a post in 2014:

Look at aboriginal issues - Labor was embarrassed by being gullible on Hindmarsh Island, and Bob Hawke weeping over claimed aboriginal sites; by the end of the Howard government, they were supporting the intervention in the Northern Territory and had a tougher approach to limiting alcohol than the current Liberal government.  (In truth, both parties have moved somewhat to the centre.  The Coalition's panic about native title is now seen as greatly exaggerated, and most in the party were fairly gracious about the Rudd apology.)

Now, if we really were still "centrist", the Liberals would not be playing political games on the Voice as Dutton clearly is.   But in a way, the Labor approach to this referendum was pretty much an open invitation to the Coalition parties to play politics.   If it fails, I think (contra Pearson) it will be the chosen tactics of the pro-Voice camp which will have caused it - almost a case of snatching defect from the jaws of victory.

8.   I therefore am feeling uncomfortable about the whole process - I don't have a problem with constitutional recognition, but in the bigger picture, the exercise feels like its an expensive and pretty pointless reinvention of ATSIC. 

This is going to make me sound uncomfortably close to Andrew Bolt and the Sky News set - but the trajectory of indigenous advocacy and rhetoric here seems now to be largely leading in the wrong direction, and I don't see any hopeful signs of a correction.   There's Jacinta Price, whose rare conservative voice is blunt and seems to align with my concerns, but she also seems very isolated within the world of indigenous advocacy.   Noel Pearson used to be somewhere in the ballpark of a straight talking advocate for indigenous self improvement, but as I say, he seems to have a mixed record and is now more Lefty mainstream.  I think Warren Mundine is just a bit of a goose, and I don't see him helping one way or another.  

I think there is a risk of the referendum failing, and increased protest from the advocates leading to worse outcomes - a hardening of mainstream sentiment against indigenous politics.   

We'll see.  

Update:    Further to my point about increased radicalism, often coming from women (when it used to be young men with the reputation for calling for revolution), and who we are supposed to listen to:

Buddhism and psychotherapy

Thinking about Buddhism, I don't think I have mentioned before that it seems to me it ought to have something of interest to say about the current hot button issue of trangenderism.  Don't Buddhist ideas of what it is to be a person (I'm thinking in particular of the "five aggregates" which is discussed in detail in this Wikipedia entry on Skandha) suggest that it's right to be skeptical of the idea there's a gender essentialism in the mind that must be accommodated by altering the body to match it?   (And, while I'm at it, it does seem to me that this aspect of Buddhist thought is one which most aligns with a lot of current theorising on the nature of mind and consciousness:  a large part of why there can be a popular book from 2017 Why Buddhism is True.)

Well, I would have thought so, but just as the American version of the religion has a reputation for being all non-judgemental on sex generally (when in fact the original Buddha is supposed to have scolded a monk who had sex with his wife by saying "worthless man, it would be better that your penis be stuck into the mouth of a poisonous snake than into a woman’s vagina"), it would seem that American practitioners are also happy to bend over backwards to accommodate transgender individuals as needing to do whatever makes them happy:

Each of us has genitals, but they do not determine gender. Our gender—male, female, or intersexual—includes such disparate forces as genetics, family, and culture. The source of transgender identity is mysterious because we don’t understand how all these forces work together. But the incongruence you feel is not that uncommon. I would advise only that this felt identity is not your “true self.” The Buddhist true self is much more than our phenomenal existence. That self is not dependent on the physical body, intellect, spiritual practice, or relationship; it cannot be obstructed by anything phenomenal.

What you describe is what I think of as the “authentic self,” the urge to live in this world in the most whole way possible. For some of us, it might mean braces or a different haircut; for others, it may mean monastic robes and a shaved head. For a certain number of people, it will require gender-reassignment surgery. So yes, embrace your authentic self completely. If that means you need to make some practical adjustments, you will have plenty of company.

Colour me skeptical that this is really consistent with most of Buddhist teaching.

A more interesting take on Buddhism and transgender is to be found in this paper, which looks at the Thai "third gender" cultural belief and the contradictory response to it in Buddhism.  I didn't know that old Thai Buddhism thought that both transgender and homosexual impulses were a sign of bad karma - a punishment for bad sexual conduct in a previous life: 

Thailand in particular is well known for its population of transgendered people. Although they are a minority they are still recognized. A person of this minority is known as a kathoey, the Thai word for transgender. There has been a lack of official concern religiously and legally against homosexuality (Sinnott 2002). This allows the transgender population freedom to continue to grow and implies that transgenderism is seen throughout Thai history. Folklore of Thailand has been seen to involve three genders, as well as transgender shamanists (Winter, 2002). Here it is evident that transgenderism has always played a role in Thai culture, that it is not something new and depending on the role of the transgender in stories it is nothing to be ashamed of either. Thus, it is evident that transgender tales extend beyond the medical and religious realms into historical folklore that helps shape Thai culture.

Not all historical tales of transgenderism are so positive in Thai society, for the third gender is seen as a karmic consequence. Traditional accounts of Thai Buddhism propose that homosexuality and transgenderism are to be viewed as a result of a negative previous life full of acts of sexual misconduct (Jackson 1993). The karmic build-up from the previous life has resulted in the punishment of being a social outcast as a transgender in a new life, but there are implications suggesting that we may all have been a kathoey at one point. No one knows for sure because no one knows all their past and future lives, only that if they are still living they are stuck in the cycle of samsara. Despite being a kathoey as a result of bad karma, some kathoey’s use the Buddhist teachings of karma to explain their identity and so it allows them to lead a life  where wanting to change sexes is not seen as sinful nor does it affect their future lives (Winter 2002). Therefore, if being a kathoey is not seen as sinful and a result of bad karma and it is possible that everyone has been a kathoey in their past life; it brings forth the chance for kathoey’s to become accepted by religious laws and shape future history.

The acceptance of kathoey’s in society by non-homosexuals teaches a lesson of compassion. The kathoey may not be able to change their fate but for Buddhists to act compassionate to the kathoey is to recognize them as a fellow human trapped in the cycle of rebirth. Due to mixed understandings of transgendered beings in Buddhist traditions it is difficult to understand how to act towards them. For instance, the Vinaya does not contain explicit rules or understandings of a third gendered being, nor are Theravada Buddhist scriptures consistent in their judgements of the third gendered being within the sangha (Jackson 1993).

Anyway, more generally, there is the question of what Buddhist influenced psychotherapy would be like.   I presume it has had some influence on the field, and Googling the topic, I see that indeed it has, although it would seem it's not all that well researched an area.  

But, by happy coincidence, there is a recent New York Times review of a book which is right on this topic - The Zen of Therapy by Buddhist psychotherapist Mark Epstein.  The review is headed:  What Unites Buddhism and Psychotherapy? One Therapist Has the Answer.  (It's a gift link so you can read the whole thing.)

It starts:

Despite often being lumped together these days in what gratingly gets called the “wellness sector,” psychotherapy and Buddhist meditation might be seen as almost opposite approaches to the search for peace of mind. Show up on the couch of a traditional American shrink, and you’ll be encouraged to delve deep into your personal history and emotional life — to ask how your parents’ anxieties imprinted themselves on your childhood, say, or why the way your spouse loads the dishwasher makes you so disproportionately angry. Show up at a meditation center, by contrast, and you’ll be encouraged to see all those thoughts and emotions as mere passing emotional weather, and the self to which they’re happening as an illusion.

These differences also help explain the characteristic ways in which each approach goes wrong — as in the case of the lifelong therapy patient who’s fascinated by his own problems, yet still as neurotic as ever; or the moony meditator engaged in what’s been termed “spiritual bypassing,” attempting to transcend all earthly concerns so that she needn’t look too closely at her own pain.

Sounds about right.

(Epstein, by the way, looks pretty much as you would expect if David Byrne were a psychotherapist).  

Anyway, Epstein seems to endorse a feeling I always have about religion that involves abandoning family:

Epstein, whose earlier books on related themes include “Advice Not Given” and “Thoughts Without a Thinker,” is adamant that psychotherapy is right to emphasize the importance of our personal stories — the history and texture of what it feels like to be, uniquely, ourselves — as against the meditator’s tendency to disdain the realm of emotions, seeing them “as indulgent at best and as an impediment at worst.” It’s clear from early in the book that Epstein won’t be romanticizing the ascetic life when he describes a pivotal moment in the story of the historical Buddha, in which he walked out on his wife and child to seek spiritual enlightenment, not as an act of courage, but as a rather obvious case of emotional avoidance.

OK.  And the key idea is in these two paragraphs:

Buddhism’s critical insight, though, is that those personal stories are just stories, as opposed to nonnegotiable, objective reality; that the selves to which they occur are much less substantial than we tend to assume — and that freedom lies ultimately not in understanding what happened to us, but in loosening our grip on it all, so that “things that feel fixed, set, permanent and unchanging” can start to shift. The goal, in a refreshing counterpoint to the excesses of a certain way of thinking about therapy, isn’t to reach the state of feeling glowingly positive about yourself and your life. It’s to become less entangled with that whole question, so that you get to spend your time on more meaningful things instead....

The mantra of the Buddhism-inclined therapist, he writes, is to “find the clinging” — to detect where a patient is holding tightly to certain stories or feelings on which they’ve come to believe their happiness depends (or, alternatively, those they seek at all costs to keep at bay — since aversion, for a Buddhist, is just an inverted kind of clinging). The point isn’t to stop feeling or thinking them, but to change one’s relationship to them. The “ultimate Buddhist therapeutic maneuver,” he explains, is “not to ignore the emotion but to leave it alone, allowing it to appear in its own way, appreciating it for what it seems to be without getting taken in by it.” Talking with one patient, a stepmother bitter about her stepchildren’s lack of appreciation, he makes the fine distinction that her expectations are “valid” but “not realistic.” It’s perfectly OK to have expectations; just don’t make your happiness dependent on their ever being fulfilled.

Going back to the original point:   it seems to me that Buddhist inspired psychotherapy should lean towards helping people let go of clinging to the idea that body modification is key to their happiness.   Perhaps some will say "so, are you going to argue they should also tell people to just ignore same sex attraction?"  But I don't think the comparison is the same.  Sex and the intimacy it brings is something nearly everyone desires, and some find they can only achieve it by being with a same sex partner.  Body dysmorphia - which is at the heart of transgenderism - is different, and being able to overcome it doesn't mean that there should be any effect on fulfilment in terms of sexual enjoyment and personal intimacy.

That how it seems to me, anyway... 

 

Kohler on the Liberals

I see nothing significant to disagree with here in Alan Kohler's article:   The Liberal Party is a retirement village for male baby boomers.  

(He pins their lack of appeal to Millennials and younger voters to their obvious internal divisions on climate change, and anger about housing becoming so expensive.)

Today's Buddhist trivia

So, I've been reading up a bit on Pure Land Buddhism, and the origin of Amitabha Buddha, which it centres around.

According to the (pretty well written) Wikipedia entry, the story comes from 3 sutras thought to have been written in what's now the Pakistan area in the first and second centuries (CE), and were translated into Chinese as early as the second and third centuries.    (It's curious that this was happening at the same time, pretty much, as the compilation of the New Testament was happening in the Christian churches.)    

Anyway, the trivia bit comes from Wikipedia too:  the Longer Sukhāvatīvyūha Sūtra (or Infinite Life  Sutra) has a passage that is inscribed on the Peace Bell at Hiroshima, with the English translation given as:

The lord of vast light, incomparable and infinite, has illuminated all Buddha countries in all the quarters, he has quieted passions, all sins and errors, he has quieted the fire in the walk of hell. 

That does seem a good line for such a memorial.

Anyway, it seems that no one seriously argues that Amitabha was a historical figure, unlike Siddhartha Gautama, the "original" Buddha, about whom it seems (mostly) agreed that he really existed as a founder of a new religion.   (An interesting article on whether the historicity of his story is actually important or not can be found at Tricycle.)

The problems (and contradictions) of Japan

This article at the BCC by its long time correspondent in Japan gives a very convincing summary of the situation with the county.   You've probably read the matters noted in other places, but this just puts it together very well.

Doesn't this seem a charge destined for acquittal from the start?

Alex Baldwin being charged with involuntary manslaughter, I mean.   As noted in the NYT:

The criminal charges Mr. Baldwin faces came as a surprise to many in the film industry and were strongly disputed by his legal team. A lawyer for Mr. Baldwin, Luke Nikas, said the prosecutors’ decision “distorts Halyna Hutchins’s tragic death and represents a terrible miscarriage of justice.”

“Mr. Baldwin had no reason to believe there was a live bullet in the gun — or anywhere on the movie set,” Mr. Nikas said in a statement on Thursday. “He relied on the professionals with whom he worked, who assured him the gun did not have live rounds. We will fight these charges, and we will win.”

SAG-AFTRA, the union representing film, television and radio workers, said in a statement that the death of Ms. Hutchins was a “preventable” tragedy but that it was “not a failure of duty or a criminal act on the part of any performer.”

“The prosecutor’s contention that an actor has a duty to ensure the functional and mechanical operation of a firearm on a production set is wrong and uninformed,” the union said. “An actor’s job is not to be a firearms or weapons expert.”

 I just can't see that a jury (I assume it's a jury trial) wouldn't see it this way.  

Gotta pierce my eye, again

I didn't realise it was so long ago, but it was apparently in January 2018 that I had a cataract operation on my right eye.  The left had a much milder cataract but it has worsened:  interestingly, it seems they can get to a point where the suddenly get significantly worse in a short timeframe, and that's where I've been at for the last 6 months.

So, it's time to get the left eye done, this afternoon, and hopefully stop my brain from being confused about why it should ignore the looking-through-yellow-tinted-frosted-glass style of vision from one eye. 

See you later...clearer, too. 

Update: Success.   Seems I may be able to revert to reading and computer use without glasses, too.

Can I mention something that I often think: undergoing light anaesthesia is cool.  It's close to experiencing magic, I reckon.  Awake, awake, there's the slight tingle or warmth in that arm, I guess it will work: bam, awake in a different room.

The King of Buddhas, noted

Sometimes I watch low quality Buddhist videos for fun, but this one does show how simple the Pure Land style of Buddhism can be, with the "King of Buddhas" (a term I hadn't heard before) Amitabha Buddha having vowed to bring all who chant his name into the Pure Land upon death, which is almost the same as Heaven:

 

Perhaps I have written this before, but this simple formula does remind me very much of the "born again" strain of Protestantism which places a lot of emphasis on acknowledging Christ as your Lord and Saviour as the key thing to get right, and the importance of good works after that are given short shrift. 

So in that respect, it is unlike Catholicism.   But on the other hand, the countless number of Buddhas,  and bodhisattvas, and the way they are in a hierarchy and doing stuff to help people, not to mention the Pure Land itself as pretty much an Eastern decorated version of Heaven, does resemble the colour and flavour of Catholicism with its communion of saints, and its interest in angels and the hierarchy of Heavenly beings.  

It's this odd meld of two strains of Christianity that makes it interesting.

     

  

Why is the ABC trying so hard with this person?

I really don't understand why the ABC seems to be trying so hard to give high profile to drag figure Courtney Star, who I don't find particularly talented or engaging as an interviewer, presenter, or singer.  (OK, I have to admit, I haven't even seen the singing part of it: I'm making an assumption there.)  Yet he/she has been everywhere over the ABC for the last 12 months.  Like this video, one in a big series in which matters are discussed between his drag and non drag persona.

I don't know the preferred pronouns either, but it's like he/she/they has got incriminating photos of Ita Buttrose, or something...

Bugs we share

From Nature:

People living in the same household share more than just a roof (and pints of milk). Be they family or flatmate, housemates tend to have the same microbes colonizing their bodies, and the longer the cohabitation, the more similar these microbiomes become.

The conclusion — based on an 18 January study in Nature of the gut and mouth microbiomes of thousands of people from around the world¹ — raises the possibility that diseases linked to microbiome dysfunction, including cancer, diabetes and obesity, could be partly transmissible.

“This study is the most comprehensive look to date at when and why microbes transmit into the gut and oral microbiomes,” says Katherine Xue, a microbiome researcher at Stanford University in California. “New microbes can continue to reshape our microbiomes throughout our lives.”...

The analysis confirmed the strong link between the microbiomes of mothers and those of their children, particularly early in life. During an infant’s first year of life, half of the microbial strains in their guts were shared with their mothers. The extent of overlap decreased as children aged — but did not vanish. Older people, aged 50–85, still had gut microbe strains in common with their mothers.

Other family members were also an important source of gut microbes. After the age of 4, children shared similar numbers of microbe strains with their father as with their mother. And twins who moved away from each other shared fewer gut microbes the longer they had lived apart. Sharing occurred even between households in several of the rural-living groups: people from separate households in the same village tended to have more overlap in gut microbes than did people from different villages.

And this is a bit surprising:

The researchers also found that the extent of household sharing was no less in people from Westernized cultures than it was elsewhere. Ilana Brito, a microbiome researcher at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, was surprised by that insight. She expected that microbiome transmission would be harder to detect in Western populations because of factors, such as better public-health infrastructure, that might impede spread.

Counting again

Further to my previous posts about the various attempts that have been made to count the number of gay (and generically queer) people in different countries, this recent news out of England about its 2021 census seems to have attracted little attention:

• The census question on sexual orientation was a voluntary question asked of those aged 16 years and over.
• In total, 44.9 million people (92.5% of the population aged 16 years and over) answered the question.
• Around 43.4 million people (89.4%) identified as straight or heterosexual.
• Around 1.5 million people (3.2%) identified with an LGB+ orientation (“Gay or Lesbian”, “Bisexual” or “Other sexual orientation”).
• The remaining 3.6 million people (7.5%) did not answer the question.

 A lot of the 3.2% million did put themselves down as bisexual or other, and I think we can safely assume (based on other surveys in Western countries) that this would include more women than men:

• 748,000 (1.5%), described themselves as gay or lesbian

• 624,000 (1.3%) described themselves as bisexual

• 165,000 (0.3%) selected “Other sexual orientation”

Apparently, they will be releasing more information about the gender of the respondents later this month.

Anyhoo, given that 7.5% didn't answer the question, it would seem plausible to add a significant number from that group into one of the "queer" categories, so I would still stick by my guesstimate from 2013 that the "true" figure in the Western countries that have done this research is that around 4 to 5% fall within the broad "queer" category, although it seems to have become clearer over the years that a lot of that is actually bisexuality which might not (or might, who knows?) play a significant role over a lifetime. 

But perhaps the biggest surprise is that in a country where gay celebrities seem so prominent (especially in their media and entertainment industry), the number of "pure" gay or lesbian willing to disclose it is under 2%.  They do seem to be disproportionately visible because of the sort of work they like to do.  (Same can be said about all Western countries, really.) 

Speaking of economics...what has happened to Jason Soon?

He hardly seems to have any online presence anywhere anymore...

Economics Explained seems OK...

I think I have not watched Google recommended videos from the Economics Explained Youtube channel before now because I assumed it might be something like that god awful PragerU channel.   But I finally watched a couple of the videos, and thought they were pretty mainstream and good.  For example, this one about capitalism and economics generally:

 

 And this one about Sri Lanka's problems in particular:

 

The latter doesn't spend much time on the issue they say they will discuss, about the inevitable inequality between nations, in terms of their ability to grow into wealthy modern economies, but maybe they will come back to that. But overall, I didn't find much to criticise or be suspicious about.

Get a grip

In my never ending quest to find the laziest way I can remain fit, there's this:

Want to know how well you’re aging? Check your grip strength.

A recent study of 1,275 men and women found that those with relatively feeble handgrip strength, a reliable marker of overall muscle quality and strength, showed signs of accelerated aging of their DNA. Their genes appeared to be growing old faster than those of people with greater strength.

The study, although preliminary, raises the possibility that visiting the gym or doing a few push-ups in our living rooms might help turn back the clock and make our cells and selves more biologically youthful, whatever our current age.

Strength also can be an augury of how long we’ll live. In a 2015 study of almost 140,000 adults in high-, middle- and low-income nations, reduced handgrip strength was closely linked to mortality in people of all incomes, predicting risks for early death better than blood pressure, which is often considered one of the best indicators of life span.

I think my grip is not bad, but I have never measured it properly...

 

Fairly unimpressed, or just getting old?

I tried watching the much praised first episode of The Last of Us on Binge last night.

I was deeply unimpressed.  OK, the first 5 minutes was pretty well done, but as I said to my son, the next 20 minutes of "the world is suddenly turning zombie and collapsing overnight" is stuff we've seen many times before and there was nothing novel or particularly interesting in how it happened in this story.

The rest of the show was heavy on dialogue, which I didn't think was particularly well written, and the main male and female character don't display much at all in the way of likeability.   I get that the developing dynamic between them is at the heart of the show, but I already don't care for them.

It just feels a very well trodden path of familiar tropes.

This is not a view widely shared amongst critics, although here is one exception.  On Twitter, it seems that many gamers are just ecstatic that the show follows the game so closely, with comparisons of the cut scenes from the game apparently looking at times exactly the same as the scene in the TV show.   Am I supposed to impressed about that?  Why? 

So, I wonder if this is a fair reaction, or a sign that I'm getting old(er)-age cynical of what anyone 30 years or more younger than me likes?    I'm not entirely sure...

 

Noel Coward's advice remembered

So, Renee Geyer has died.  I thought I might have posted briefly before about an autobiography (of sorts) that came out about her, but I see now that it predates this blog, so I probably didn't. 

It certainly confirmed her "bad girl" reputation, but as this review/interview with her explains, it was (somewhat refreshingly) not done in the often cloying "I was lost but am now redeemed" style of American celebrity autobiography.  

But I have a suspicion that the conservatives over at the ageing Australian reactionaries blog have forgotten about the extent of her unapologetically (shall we say) dissolute life:

So there are the stripped-bare stories of three near-fatal drug overdoses, six abortions and a collection of short-lived relationships.

"I've died three times," she writes. "Overdosed ... heart stopped beating ... blue in the face for 20 minutes ... had to be revived. That kind of dead."

Of the abortions, she says she was unlucky, with three of the pregnancies happening while she was using contraception.

Oddly, Googling her has also turned up that she sang the campaign song for the Liberals in the 1975 election (!)*, and got charged with threatening a  hotel receptionist (in racist terms) in 2015.  Had forgotten about that.  As well as the car crashes. 

She was an odd character, I think it is fair to say.

And the Noel Coward advice, of course, refers to this:

Regarding yours, dear Mrs. Worthington,
Of Wednesday the 23rd,
Although your baby
May be
Keen on a stage career,
How can I make it clear
That this is not a good idea? 

At least I suspect a quieter life out of the public eye could have been a happier one.  Although you never know, I guess.

* This site says that she later distanced herself from the Liberals and politics generally, saying she only did it for the money. 

Toilet talk

Well, it's really poop talk, but I didn't want that to be in the heading.

An article in the Washington Post "Ask a Doctor:  Are my bowel movements normal?" (gift link)  contains some enlightening information, such as:

A general rule of thumb is that anywhere from three bowel movements per day to three per week is within the range of “normal.” If we look at the numbers closely, stool frequency varies by geographic region, age, sex and cultural habits. In the United States, the majority of people who consider themselves to have normal bowel habits report having between 3-7 bowel movements per week. In eastern India, however, where more people are vegetarian and the typical diet is much higher in fiber, people have a median of 14 stools per week. In Italy, meanwhile, people tend to defecate once per day.

Women and older people tend to have less frequent stools.

Hmmm...that last point doesn't seem to apply to me, but I will spare you the details here.  Anyway, I do fit within the normal range.  I like the coy words here: 

Once-a-day bowel movement is great for many people. But the key to a healthy stool frequency is that however often it happens, it should be comfortable and occur in a socially appropriate context.

If you consistently have a bowel movement once a day, but to do so, you have to strain significantly, take four laxatives in the morning, and never feel like you’ve quite … evacuated … everything, then I’d say there is a problem...

Maybe you’re someone who has three bowel movements each day, but they’re soft and never feel so urgent as to disrupt important work meetings or stymie your agenda at happy hour. I’d say to leave it alone and consider yourself “normal.” But when the urge to poop occurs at frequent and inconvenient times, making you afraid to socialize for fear of an embarrassing call of nature, it’s worth talking to a physician about potential ways to address it.

So if you find that your bathroom habits are comfortable and don’t hold you back socially, then poop in peace, even if it’s not always precisely once per day.

As for the question of colour, this is the commentary:

Green: Don’t sweat it.

Yellow: No big deal.

Orange: Not worried.

Dark brown: Still not worried. If it’s not black like the hue of your TV screen and sticky, it’s probably not because of bleeding....

White: You have my attention. Bilirubin, the waste product found in bile, is what gives your poop its characteristic brown color. Without it, stools are pale. White or clay-colored poop could suggest a blockage, such as from a gallstone that is preventing bile from reaching your intestine. This should be discussed as soon as possible with your physician.

Silver: Do tell. There was a vivid case report about the stool of a patient with simultaneous gastrointestinal bleeding and bile duct blockage, leading to shiny silvery stool. But this would be exceedingly rare.

She doesn't mention something that caught my attention recently:  following Eric Idle's publicity tour where he talked about surviving pancreatic cancer (he was very lucky that it was caught very very early), I watched some English video about the warning signs, and a woman survivor said that, in retrospect, one of the first signs for her had been changes in her poop,  as explained at this website:

If your pancreatic duct blocks, you might develop a symptom called steatorrhoea. This means fatty stools. You may pass frequent, large bowel motions that are pale coloured and smelly, and are difficult to flush away. These bowel changes can mean that you are not absorbing your food properly. This can also cause weight loss.

Diarrhoea and constipation are also other possible bowel changes you can have.

I hadn't realised that could be a sign of pancreatic cancer before.  Now I'm happy when it doesn't float.  

 

 

 

Climate change denial doesn't seem great for health

I learn from reading the Australian blogs for ageing conservatives/reactionaries that Tim Blair had a heart attack at the start of this year (he did post about it but I don't bother checking even the headlines of his paywalled blog anymore); apparently Ian Plimer is unwell*; and Mark Steyn had two heart attacks in December (saying he didn't recognise the symptoms at first.)    Jim Molan died this morning, and of course, the late George Pell was a gullible fan of Plimer.

Of course, ill health can strike anyone, and I will touch the (probably fake veneer of) wood of my desk more than once while writing this post.  But, I see via (smoker) Currency Lad's ridiculous blog that Tim Blair started his post with:

I chose to ignore relatively mild early symptoms and instead filed this year’s predictions – which somehow didn’t include any personal cardiac catastrophes. Bit of a missed opportunity there.

Symptoms intensified on January 2. I was suffering, to use a medical acronym I’d soon learn, a full-blown STEMI.

It has stuck in my mind from years ago that Blair, in his column explaining his bout with colon cancer, said he ignored the initial signs for a very substantial period.

Mark Steyn explains that his first heart attack started just before his TV show started, but he went ahead anyway (and, to be fair, I know that it is indeed possible to not recognise the symptoms for what they really are.)  

But still - it seems to me that if you have pinned your whole public shtick on poo-pooing scientists' near unanimous warnings of the confirmed and dangerous phenomena of AGW, it doesn't exactly help your credibility to be happily explaining that you are good at ignoring other danger warning signs that are happening, like, 50 cm from your own brain.

Just sayin', as they say....

Update:   I see also from reading another ageing smoker, Roger Franklin from Quadrant in his areff incarnation at Catallaxy, who visit Tim in hospital, this:

We both agree his great challenge will be learning to write without a fag in the ashtray by the keyboard. His post suggests he’s on the way to mastering the art. 

Smoking and climate change denial are incredibly strongly co-related.   I would have thought that someone with colon cancer might also have given up on the habit already, but apparently not.

It's a very safe rule of thumb that if anyone likes to opine about issues of public safety and health, including on climate change, vaccines, or diet, and they are a proud smoker, you know with 95% certainty that their view can be safely ignored.   

* disseminated melanoma, someone has since said on the site.  

A bit of casual racism

A terrible story of American racism from the end of World War 2 in the Washington Post.   Here's a gift  link.

The basics:

About two weeks after the end of World War II in Europe, French women were serving U.S. soldiers coffee and doughnuts in a Red Cross tent in France. Two Black soldiers went inside to get some.

This was a breach of norms: In a segregated army, many White American soldiers did not want Black men talking to French women.

The Black soldiers — Allen Leftridge and Frank Glenn — were challenged by a White sergeant, according to a witness. When a White armed guard arrived, he fatally shot the two men. A third soldier — a White man just released from a German prison camp who was not named in documents related to the incident — was caught in the crossfire and killed, a newspaper from the time reported.

Now, there was a court martial, but they acquitted.  

On the most "generous" reading, a fight broke out and the guard acted in self defence;  but it remains hard to believe that he would have been so trigger happy in a fight with a white soldier.  Or, of course, that a white soldier would be in trouble for talking to a white woman.

An unusually satisfying ratatouille

Things that were cheap(ish) at the West End markets on Saturday included eggplants, tomatoes, capsicum and okra.  There were a couple of zucchini at home.  And a tube of this:

which I am finding is a much more handy way of having basil flavour ready to add to cooking, rather than buying a bunch of fresh basil leaves, using a third of then, and the rest rot away before getting to use them again.

All of this (save for the okra) suggested ratatouille, which can be a bit hit or miss in terms of flavour.  But I found this recipe, Southern Ratatouille, and it worked well.  I had no "poblano pepper" of course, so a teaspoon of chilli flakes substituted.  

• 1 tablespoon extra-virgin olive oil
• 2 small zucchini, sliced 1/2 inch thick
• 1 eggplant (about 1 pound), cut into 1-inch cubes
• 1 medium onion, chopped
• 1 small poblano pepper, chopped
• ½ red bell pepper, chopped
• 1 pound okra, stem ends trimmed
• 3 large tomatoes, seeded (see Tip) and chopped
• ¾ cup water
• 1 teaspoon chopped fresh thyme or 1/2 teaspoon dried
• 1 teaspoon salt
• ½ teaspoon freshly ground pepper
• 2 cloves garlic, finely chopped
• ½ cup chopped fresh basil

The garlic (minced through a garlic crusher) goes in last and doesn't get cooked out like it usually does, I think that might account for a significant part of the deeper flavour.

Another notable death - Paul Johnson

As it happens, it occurred to me just a day or two ago to check whether Paul Johnson was still alive, and saw that he was.   (Seems he might have been on his death bed at the time, though.)  Here's his obituary from the New York Times. 

I've read at least three of his early history books, as well as at least one collection of essays, and yes, he was influential on my views.  I think the first I read was his History of Christianity, which really served to enlighten me about how absurd (to the point of comical) some purportedly religiously motivated behaviour could be; and what a (let's say), obviously human enterprise the development of the religion had been.  (I found his history of the Jews heavier going, and much less of that has stuck with me.)    I think it might have been from Modern Times that I credit him with bringing to my attention the idea that capitalism and markets are basically an organic and natural feature of how humans like to organise themselves; and the contrary, high flalutin' theories of how the world ought to be, like Marxist economics, fail because they don't accord with this aspect of human nature.   This still seems true to me, even though I have learnt to deeply regret that free markets types can love money so much that they actively deny science for the sake of continuing profit.   (You know what I'm talking about, and it gets a mention below.) 

I think it obvious that in his swing from Leftism to Conservatism, he swung too far to the Right, especially when the American Republicans started idolising him.   (There is also, of course, the loss of face suffered when he was exposed as a long term adulterer, after often criticising that behaviour in others and writing a whole book - as entertaining as it is - about hypocrisy in the personal life of famous Leftists.)  

But I think in at least one respect, his Catholicism, he perhaps did become more progressive as he aged:  I remember being surprised in his book of essays that he opined that women being allowed into the Catholic priesthood was inevitable.  Now that I think of it, I think it might also be in that book that he made a comment about how the Church would have to deal with the fact that gay relationships can be as loving as straight ones, making their complete condemnation difficult.  (For some reason, I also remember how he wrote that he increasingly gave all living creatures a chance - preferring, for example, to open a window and try to chase a fly out of the room rather than immediately try to kill it.)  

Generally speaking, though, I have the impression from reviews that the quality of his historical works never really recovered after A History of the American People (which is discussed in this interesting article from 1998.)   On that great indicator of whether a person has retained reasonable judgement or not - his attitude to climate change - I still don't know whether he ever expressed an opinion.  I would be happy to know that he did accept the science on that, but it would not be at all surprising if he didn't.  (Or if he took a Thatcherite path of believing it initially, and then turning against it as being a Leftish plot.)

The above article about him indicates other personal faults beyond (hypocritical) adultery - heavy drinking, for one, but also having views on politicians seemingly determined by whether they had ever met, or praised, him.   Jacob Weisberg, who wrote the article, concludes this:

...it is hard to avoid the impression that he is a misunderstood man, at least in America. Johnson is much less a bitter ultraconservative than a professional provocateur, a controversialist. Creating outrages, he has learned, can be a good business.

That may be true, although I don't think it a feature of his earlier works, which will remain worth reading for a long time yet.   

 

 

  

Lab grown chicken does look pretty good

This video has been out for a couple of weeks, about a couple of well know American Youtubers tasting the product of the Singaporean company that is making (small) amounts of chicken "meat" from lab cultivated cells.

Despite my scepticism of lab grown beef as a potential, economically viable, product, I have to admit that this video is making me reconsider, at least with respect to chicken.  Two reasons - I'm not sure how they have done it, but the texture on one of these examples looks very much the same as real chicken meat (and I do expect that the texture would be easier to copy for chicken than for beef, just because chicken is a more uniform, and softer, meat.  I recently noted that lab grown salmon might be easier too, for the same reason.)  And secondly, it seems the company grows the cells in a plant based serum, whereas I don't know that they have achieved that in beef yet.  Anyway, here it is:

Technical issues after all

It seems I have to humble brag, again, but there's an article up at The Guardian about the technical issues with the troubled Sun Cable project which indicates that my hunch that this idea wasn't likely to fly was correct:

The problems are technical, economic and even geopolitical. Giving some observers solace is the presence of David Griffin, Sun Cable’s founder and chief executive, who is a veteran of the renewable industry. “He’s very competent at these kinds of things,” said one industry insider. “He loves obstacles, he loves challenges.”

Griffin will have many of these. Georgious Konstantinou, a senior lecturer in energy systems at the University of New South Wales, said the length of the cable alone makes the project “extremely ambitious”.

Konstantinou said a global desktop study done three years ago researching the feasibility of building power links between different regions was not promising for Sun Cable.

“It ended up with the Australian connections being way more difficult and way costlier than any of the other links that you would have around the world,” he said, adding the depth of waters to be crossed – such a 2km deep Timor trench – was a key issue.

“So when Sun Cable says ‘we can actually do that’, it makes you think what are the differences do they see compared to what everyone else is thinking?”

Konstantinou estimates energy losses even with the best high voltage direct current technology would be at least 15%. Boosters would also be needed to ensure voltage is maintained for the end users, such as Singapore.

Singapore itself is yet to commit funds or sign up as a customer. Sun Cable would need to offer the island nation an ultra-low price if it’s to rely on one supplier for 15% of its electricity, not least because it would need back-up in case of sudden failure, Andrew Blaker, an energy expert at the Australian National University, said.

“If you, in the space of half a second, took out 15% of Australia’s electricity supply, Australia’s grid might have a few problems,” said Blakers, who describes himself as “cautiously sceptical” of Sun Cable’s prospects.

Singapore’s Energy Market Authority declined to comment on Sun Cable’s administration. A spokesperson, though, told Guardian Australia the authority had “received more than 20 proposals to import electricity from countries including Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand”.

“We remain on track to meet our imports target of 4GW by 2035,” she said.

Blakers said Sun Cable’s going to face “very stiff competition from similar projects located in northern Indonesia or on hydroelectric reservoirs in Borneo because they are within 50 to 500 or so kilometres across the shallow sea from Singapore”.

While the solar resource is “not quite so good” in those regions compared with the Northern Territory, “it’s still pretty good”, he said. “I just wish they would turn the cable around and send [the power] south” to markets in southern Australia.

Dylan McConnell, an energy expert also with UNSW, said the estimated cost and timing of the venture of $30bn seem unrealistic compared with projects being developed in Australia.

The proposed Marinus Link, for instance, involves a 250km HVDC link across Bass Strait at an average depth of about 60m. The combined capacity in two stages would be 1.5GW with a total of more than $3bn. Stage 1, at 750MW, would be built by 2028 on current plans.

“Sun Cable, on the other hand, is set to be almost 17 times longer, about twice as much capacity , and is through the Timor Sea,” McConnell said. “It’s also between two countries and through Indonesia’s territorial waters, and was apparently targeting ‘first delivery ‘ to Singapore in 2027.”

“It’s difficult to imagine how you might deliver that, alongside about 20GW of solar and about 40GW-hours of storage for [$30bn],” he said.

OK, so it seems the project is looking technically and/or economically dubious.

Which raises the question, how reliable is the judgement of Infrastructure Australia, which ticked off on it 6 months ago:

Infrastructure Australia has provided its endorsement for the economic benefits of the Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), which would export solar power from the Australian outback to Singapore via a submarine transmission link.

The endorsement ensures that the project can advance to third-stage, “investment-ready” status on Infrastructure Australia's priority list, opening the door for government funding.

   

 

 

   

An interesting take on George Pell

There's a very interesting personal take on Cardinal George Pell by John Allen, a journalist at the Catholic website Crux.

It's hard to summarise - but Allen obviously liked him, despite being fully aware of his combative character and being on the receiving end of criticism on more than one occasion.  Some extracts:

The last time I spoke to Pell was about three weeks ago. He’d called in part to see how I was doing in my recovery from esophageal surgery last fall, but, more to the point, to chide me for a recent article I’d written. I’d called Pope Francis “decisive,” and Pell was livid – the pope’s problem, he thundered, is that he routinely fails to act, with his dithering about the German “synodal way” the latest case in point.

Having done everything but call me brain-dead, Pell concluded by saying, “Well, take care of yourself … we need your voice. Even if you do sometimes muck it up, at least you’re paying attention.” He then hung up without waiting for me to reply.

(Following the normal rules of polite telephone interaction seem to be something Pell didn't feel obliged to follow, then.)

More:

I’ve known Pell since his days in Sydney. If memory serves, I think my first interview with him was during the “liturgy wars” in English-speaking Catholicism in the 2000s, when Pell led a new commission created in Rome to supervise the translation of liturgical texts into English.

I remember being stunned at how blunt he was, using peppery adjectives to describe a few of his opponents that would never see the light of day in a family newspaper. From that point on, we struck up a sort of symbiotic friendship – Pell loved getting the latest Roman gossip, and I always enjoyed his assessments of people and politics.

So, I take it that he was blunt and sweary in the discussion of his perceived enemies.

Some years later, Pell’s return to Rome after his legal battles in Australia more or less coincided with my return to living here full-time, which gave us the opportunity to see one another more frequently. Over conversations in his Vatican apartment – which, he informed my wife Elise and I, he had swept regularly for electronic surveillance, because the Vatican in his view has become a “police state” – or over meals at our house and in favorite Rome restaurants, Pell would share his ever-colorful assessments of personalities and issues, not to mention his often disparaging take on whatever I’d just written or said.

As the saying goes, George Pell was sometimes wrong, but never in doubt.

We can add a bit of paranoia to the later Pell character?  Mind you, in the Vatican, I suppose it might be deserved.

During one of our recent exchanges, Pell speculated that Pope Francis was suffering from an undisclosed illness related to his colon surgery in 2021 and that we’d have a conclave before Christmas. Since the holidays are over, I’d been meaning to call Pell to rib him about getting that wrong – sadly, now I’ll never have the chance.

To sum up, the George Pell I knew was brash, hilarious, opinionated and tough as nails. I never worked for him, but I know plenty of people who did, and they say he could be equal parts a bull in a China shop and the most caring father figure you’d ever meet. With Pell, literally, you got strong doses of both the bitter and the sweet.

Pell thought in “us v. them” terms, and it always irritated him that I try not to. Yet despite that, he took a genuine interest in my life and career … he was one of the first to call when I was in the hospital in October, and I was especially glad to have his prayers.

And finally:

Of course, I realize that Pell was strong medicine, and he wasn’t everyone’s cup of coffee. With such a polarizing figure, it’s hard to say anything that’s unassailably objective, but here’s my stab at it.

No matter what else one might conclude, from here on out Roman Catholicism is going to be just a little less interesting, a little more gray and dull, because George Pell isn’t around. He will be missed … by many, many, people, and certainly by me.

I think it fair to say from this description that:

a.    he can hardly be said to have a saintly character;

b.    he played (very human) power games, hard; and

c.    I would not have liked him if I had met him.    

More broadly, it is understandable how he is already the "patron saint", so to speak, for conservative Catholics who refuse to think that the Church needs any reform, at all, and yearn for the same power it used to hold over its members until the second half of the 20th century.

Not unexpected, but bad news nonetheless

As noted in The Guardian:

The world’s oceans were the hottest ever recorded in 2022, demonstrating the profound and pervasive changes that human-caused emissions have made to the planet’s climate.

More than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is absorbed in the oceans. The records, starting in 1958, show an inexorable rise in ocean temperature, with an acceleration in warming after 1990....

Prof John Abraham, at the University of St Thomas in Minnesota and part of the study team, said: “If you want to measure global warming, you want to measure where the warming goes, and over 90% goes into the oceans.

“Measuring the oceans is the most accurate way of determining how out of balance our planet is.

“We are getting more extreme weather because of the warming oceans and that has tremendous consequences all around the world.”

Prof Michael Mann, at the University of Pennsylvania, also part of the team, said: “Warmer oceans mean there is more potential for bigger precipitation events, like we’ve seen this past year in Europe, Australia, and currently on the west coast of the US.” He said the analysis showed an ever-deeper layer of warm water on the ocean surface: “This leads to greater and more rapid intensification of hurricanes – something we’ve also seen this past year – since the winds no longer churn up cold sub-surface water that would otherwise dampen intensification.”

 

 

Yglesias gets the blogging star treatment

Gee, a lengthy article at the Washington Post about the successful career of Matt Yglesias.

He's OK, I think, and I do follow him on Twitter, but I would have preferred to read about the even more eccentric centrist Noah Smith.

Was I right?

It was barely 6 months ago that I expressed surprise that the very ambitious plan to send electricity from Australia to Singapore via undersea cable was apparently going to go ahead.

Today, the news:

Sun Cable, the company behind a massive solar farm and power export project planned for the Northern Territory, has gone into voluntary administration.

Mind you, the reasons for this seem a bit unclear, and perhaps are not due to technology issues?:

The company, whose major investors include billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, provided a vague statement about why it collapsed:

"The appointment followed the absence of alignment with the objectives of all shareholders," it said. 

"Whilst funding proposals were provided, consensus on the future direction and funding structure of the company could not be achieved."

But there is this:

The ABC understands that Sun Cable's major investors, Mr Forrest and Mr Cannon-Brookes, had disagreements about the funding and direction of the company.

These included the significant amounts of cash that Sun Cable was spending, and its failure to achieve certain milestones — as required by its venture capital funding agreement.

I hope something successful arises from the financial ashes.

Moving on (Catholic Church edition)

So, with Cardinal George Pell dying suddenly, as well as Pope Benedict, it seems that the ageing doctrinal/social conservatives are being pushed out of the way by the inevitable march of time.  Mind you, I don't know that you can really call Francis significantly doctrinally different - he perhaps just gives the impression of being less judgemental in the application of doctrine.

I've been rather distracted with work and things, but it did seem to me that Benedict's funeral attracted a lot less media attention than your average passing of a Pope.  Seeing his body being carried around St Peters made the whole proceedings look a tad more, um, medieval? than I expected.   (I can't remember anything of the last Papal funeral, though.   I guess they just are never ratings winners.)   

As for people talking about Pell post mortem, there's going to be lots of embarrassing or dubious stuff said on both sides of the culture wars, for sure.  First off the rank, Tony Abbott:

"His incarceration on charges that the High Court ultimately scathingly dismissed, was a modern form of crucifixion; reputationally at least a kind of living death."

I have a hunch that Pell himself would not have liked the comparison to crucifixion - seems a bit trivialising of the travails of Christ.

As for the general state of the Church - we have the very curious problem that the US Culture Wars (and the permanent hot button issue there of abortion) has turned the local Church - apparently both clergy and the remaining practising lay members - more socially conservative than since about the 1960's (or so it seems to me.)  There was this recent report:

Research on Catholic clergy by the Austin Institute has found that younger Catholic priests and priests ordained in more recent years tend to be noticeably more conservative than older priests on a host of issues, including politics, theology and moral teaching. The Survey of American Catholic Priests has found that since the 1980s, successive cohorts of priests have grown more conservative, according to a 2021 summary report.

When asked for their convictions about a number of Catholic teachings (for example the Catholic Church’s “prohibitions of contraception, masturbation, homosexual behavior and suicide, the impossibility of women’s ordination to the priesthood, and the necessity for salvation of faith in Jesus”), Rocca wrote, “each successive 10-year cohort of priests supports church teaching more strongly than the one before it,” the Austin Institute found. “Those ordained in 2010 or later are the most conservative of all—and the least happy with Pope Francis, with roughly half disapproving of him….”

 The total number of priests in that country is, of course, still sliding downwards:

 As for the number of regularly practising Catholics:

So, the "increasingly conservative young priest" cohort is obviously not doing much to encourage Catholics to actually attend church and listen to them.

The problem in Australia, I expect, is not that there is the same level of conservative resurgence in young priests from here (and certainly not amongst the bishops), but the unintended importation of social conservatism via the use of priests from other (often developing) countries:

In order to make up for the shortfall, Australian bishops have adopted a policy of recruiting priests from dioceses and religious institutes mainly in West Africa (+80), India (+185), the Philippines (+93) and Vietnam (+88). Furthermore, it would be reasonable to assume that most of these priests have been brought to Australia on 3-5 year, possibly renewable, 457 ‘skilled worker’ visas.

That was written in 2018:  I wonder how many imports we still have?

Anyway, as is clear from the Right wing conservative Catholics who blog, they don't care that their Church is numerically diminishing, as long as they can be in charge of an anachronistic club that considers purity of doctrine more important than things like caring for people.  Hence the cruelty of Trump and Australian Right wing politicians to the likes of immigrants (or women) doesn't phase them.  It's why they don't like the current Pope, too: he's in danger of sounding too soft. They prefer the "Christian hard man" model, even to the extent of not being overly bothered by one of them (Putin) invading another country with the help of obscenely violent vigilantes.

They are blind to the long term reputational harm to the Church from their attitudes.    

So where the Church goes from here, it's extremely unclear.   I can't see that the mood is really right over the next decade for any changes that might make a difference - I mean, even the relatively modest step of allowing a married priesthood doesn't seem close to being on the cards, and rather than pressing for such changes in the West, a lot of people just chose to walk away instead.

Of course, as I have always also pointed out, denominations that flip the switch to progressivism don't find themselves surging in numbers either, and share a diminishing social influence.  

I keep wondering if there is some way to walk the fine line between integrity with most historical belief, with an appropriate modernisation in doctrine necessitated by the explosion in our understanding of the universe since (say) 1860; and would like to see the Catholic Church be the one to do it.

Can't see it happening any time soon, though.   

 

Simple but funny

This tweet today:

 

A bit of woo for you

Harry's recent disclosure of apparent mediumship type messaging from his late Mum reminded me that I had never mentioned a study recently published in the cheerily named "Omega - Journal of Death and Dying" which tried some "triple blinding" testing of non-professional mediums.  (The idea is to try to exclude the mediums source of information as being the sitter, either by direct clues from them, or from the theoretical possibility of mind reading.)

You can read the whole paper here.  This is the abstract:

The accuracy of information obtained by 28 self-claimant mediums related to 100 readings obtained with a triple level of blinding was examined across three indices: percentage of correct reading identified by the sitters, global score of readings and percentage of difference between correct and incorrect information.

All three indices showed statistical differences of the intended versus the control readings: correct identification 65%; global score: intended readings, mean = 2.4, SD = 1.5; control readings, mean = 1.7, SD = 1.2; percentage difference between correct and incorrect information: intended readings, mean = −7.9%, SD = 38.7%; control readings, mean = −27.3%, SD = 38%.

 

Our results using a very large sample, confirm previous results, supporting the hypothesis that self-claimant mediums are able to retrieve correct information about deceased people without knowing and interacting with the sitters having access with only to the deceased persons’ first name.

Trying to understand how it was done is much harder than it should be, however.  If I have it right, the  the "sitter" does not directly communicate with the medium, who is asked by a researcher to give two readings - one for a deceased person (identified only by a first name) and one "control" reading.    The researcher dealing with the medium doesn't know anything about the deceased person (or the sitter, I think). The sitter is later provided the two sets of information given at the reading (as categorised by the researcher) and rates their accuracy.

As indicated in the abstract, the result was that 65% of the time the sitter correctly identified the "intended" reading from the control.

But the thing that I don't quite understand is how the "control" reading works:

The mediums were contacted for the consultation by research assistant A (raA) who acted as proxy-sitter. On the day of the consultation, raA contacted the medium via either Skype or WhatsApp and gave her only the deceased’s first name (without the surname) as sent by raB. Italian first names did not convey any information about age and ethnicity.

The medium was required to provide oral information relative to the deceased, related to physical description of the person during life, any other information pertinent to the deceased’s identification by the sitter, and anything the deceased wished to communicate to the sitter. At the conclusion of the reading, raA electronically recorded each detail into a column, excluding generic information, for example “I love you” or “Don’t worry about me”, “I’m well”, etc., and sent them to raB. 

In a session, each medium was always asked to contribute two readings of pairs of deceased individuals of the same gender, male or female as the only common characteristic.   

So, I guess, the proxy sitter says "give me some identifying information for [real deceased] Jack" and then "can you give me another reading for another deceased male"?   But do they ask for exactly the same identifying type of information, or is there something different about what they ask for from a the "control" reading.   Because that would seem to me to be one way in which you could get a difference between control readings and the one directed to a named person. 

Or does the way they operate hide which reading is the control?   I mean, it could easily, if they just asked for a reading for (real deceased) Jack, and a reading for (not real) James.    

If I knew exactly how it was done, there is (shall we saw) at least the potential to be impressed - it does seem, as a gut reaction, that correct identification of the "intended" reading 65% of the time is pretty high above random guessing.

But I would really like some psychic skeptic to be observing the whole show before being satisfied there isn't some ready explanation. 

Friday miscellany

*  It's pretty depressing reading about the wild success of Covid anti-vax misinformation swirling around the internet.   This thread on Twitter, for example.   

* James Hansen and his research buddies think that climate sensitivity is worse (higher) than 3 degrees, and aerosols are giving a false sense of security (that's my paraphrase).  The paper is currently only a pre-print, and I haven't noticed much commentary on it yet, but it sounds a worry.    (If he is correct, it really makes it sounds like geo-engineering by putting more aerosols high in the atmosphere might be unavoidable, in the long run.)

* Joe Rogan continues to be a force for misinformation.   

* I can't help it - even I'm getting a tad interested in the Harry melodrama.   This latest bit, about a visit to a California medium, is interesting because it sounds like what has happened to quite a few people - amongst a lot of generic comfort messaging, there is one detail given which sounds convincing because of its peculiar specificity.  Unless, of course, the woman had been fed that story beforehand.  

I really like this short exercise movement

We just seem to keep hearing news stories about how short bursts of exercise are surprisingly effective.  Here's the latest one, in the Washington Post:

Here’s an easy and effective way to add physical activity to your daily routine during the new year: turn your exercise into a snack. New research shows exercise “snacks,” which consist of brief spurts of exertion spread throughout the day, can improve metabolic health, raise endurance and stave off some of the undesirable changes in our muscles that otherwise occur when we sit too long. “It’s a very practical approach” to physical activity, said Daniel Moore, an associate professor of muscle physiology at the University of Toronto in Canada, who led a 2022 study of exercise snacking and muscle health. The physiological benefits of activity snacks can rival those of much longer sessions of brisk walking or other, traditional workouts, the science shows. And they come in multiple flavors, from stair climbing to unobtrusive chair squats in your office. Such “snacks” require no gym membership, special shoes or other equipment; office attire is optional but okay, and the time commitment is minimal.

I will gift link the article.   

There was also this article in The Conversation, with a message I liked:

It’s OK to aim lower with your new year’s exercise resolutions – a few minutes a day can improve your muscle strength

These articles brought up an old memory - an episode of (1970's TV version) The Odd Couple in which Felix did an isometrics exercise, pushing his clasped hands back and forth, and said to Oscar that this worth more than the exercise he got from playing something or other.

Through the wonders of Google, and obsessive people who have done a podcast purely about reviewing a popular sitcom from the 1970's, I have quickly established that this was from an episode called "The Odd Decathlon" in which they got into a fitness challenge, brought on because Felix found out that Oscar's health insurance premium was half of his (despite Felix just having passed a health check with flying colours.)   (Oh, and the exercise Oscar claimed keep him fit was softball.)

I'm impressed with two things:

a.    that I remember an episode of a show that I probably last watched in the mid to late 1970s; and

b.    that Felix was probably right!  

Now excuse me while I stand up and down rapidly for 100 seconds.