Healthier to be with a Democrat, obviously

I don't normally like to post photos of politicians, or people associated with them, looking grim and out of sorts.  I mean, you get no context and it can be quite unfair.

BUT:   it's impossible to resist it this time, given this dire recent appearance of Trump Jnr's girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle:

 

I mean, honestly: having Morticia Addams as a make up and style consultant would give a less disturbing result.   Of course it's not the first time I have noticed her increasingly harsh look in the years since she threw her lot in with the Trumps.   But to my surprise, when I was looking for past photos to compare (many have used those from when she was at Fox News, but I was looking for something different) I learned that she used to be married to Gavin Newsom!   I didn't know that:

 

They were married from 2001 to 2006.

This is like the reverse of what Republicans like to think - that their typical follower is a wholesome Mom from the suburbs, and that trashy woman dressed and made up like a sex doll must be a liberal.  

Weird!

Local politics is often the nuttiest politics

From the Guardian:

Backed by 5G truthers, exiled from One Nation, banned from parliament – now Troy Thompson looks set to be Townsville’s mayor

Pisto and pesto

From "recent recipes successfully tried" files:

a.    hadn't heard of pisto before (a Spanish vegetable stew - although this recipe ups the protein with a chorizo topping), but this came out very nice.  Here's the Guardian's photo:

and here's my real life version:

 

Would have looked better in a smaller bowl, and the egg yolk broke and I flipped it, but it was still runny inside, honest.

Anyway:  yes, I did the cubed pumpkin in the airfryer first to get it a bit Maillard reacted on the outside. I also skipped the sage - it's not a herb I care for, much, to be honest.

As for pesto:   I followed a Youtube short for making a prawn pesto pasta, and I can't even find it again. I've forgotten the exact details, but I think it was prawns fried (with garlic? or was that after the prawns?) with a squeeze of lemon.  Added some halved grape tomatoes too - that wasn't in the video.  Remove from frying pan, put chicken stock in frying pan and cook the spaghetti in that (I used 100 g per person, it worked well.)   Drain spaghetti, add pesto and the prawns and tomatoes and mix around, maybe adding lemon and salt to taste.   Came out a bit dry, but next time I will just add back in more of the pasta water.

 

Is there something like an ontological argument for free will?

Let's kick off the week with something like a shower thought: the kind that is sometimes embarrassing to ask openly, because of the degree to which it can show the writer's unfamiliarity with aspects of philosophy.

But the question in the post title occurred to me this weekend when reading this short interview with Robert Sapolsky, who currently is the most prominent figure arguing that free will does not exist, and (to give him some credit) discussing the consequences of that view.  (I think far too many people - like Sabine Hossenfelder - just shrug their shoulders about the real life consequences of the belief in no free will.)

Anyway, as I have mentioned before, when it comes to the free will argument, I keep on having difficulty with grasping how lack of free will copes with the concept of a mere idea that comes from outside a person changing a person's behaviour in reaction to that idea.   The fact that a person can, for example, be given concepts that may help them climb out of depression seems to indicate that something ephemeral, like how they should analyse themselves and their present situation, does change a person internally because they have accepted the ephemeral idea is true. 

The somewhat novel extension (to me, anyway) of that line of thinking that has occurred to me is this:  "does the mere concept of free will and people's ability to believe in it mean that free will does indeed exist - much like the ontological proof for the existence of God."

Now, I certainly don't believe the ontological proof of God is convincing, but the idea that an idea can indeed change behaviour seems more plausibly like a possible proof that the idea itself is real.

Don't come back at me and say "of course believing in a false idea doesn't prove the false idea is true."   Yeah, sure.  I guess I would try to get around that obvious argument by saying this is an idea about reasoning and ideas themselves.   Not about factual matters like (to use an example) "Trump won the last election", or for that matter "God is real".  

A quick Google hasn't shown up an exact replication of my suggestion - but it would have to be likely someone has run at least something close to this argument before.  (I have thought briefly about how similar it is to "I think therefore I am" - and I'm not sure that it's quite the same.)

I don't mind this guy's post on the whole subject of free will (who is he?), but I will have to keep looking.     

Musk on your mind

Here's a lengthy article at Vox about what Musk is trying to achieve with his Neuralink implants.  (A technology which, I reckon, is not going to go far because of its invasive nature.)

Not many articles are free at Vox anymore (such that I barely check it), so I hope this one stays free.

Seems under-reported to me

I was watching video of Biden promoting a new semi conductor plant to be built in Arizona this morning, and as usual, he gave a prepared speech flawlessly and sounded completely engaged and sensible.  (And again, when he walked off, it was with his stiff gait that seems common now.)   Once again, I felt the twinge of infuriation that mainstream media has let Right wing media (both corporate - Fox, Newsmax,  and smaller scale operations) brainwash (I don't know) 30%? of the population to genuinely believe he has dementia and barely knows where he is until an aide gives him his drugs.   If you ignore nonsense, nonsense grows, I reckon.

(I also again wondered how much of the Biden frailty meme is based around video of his stiff gait - if there is an explanation for that, I reckon they should be giving it.)

In any case, this is the story, and it seems pretty big, really; but also not given the attention it deserved in US media:

Biden administration awards $8.5 billion for computer-chip manufacturing

A massive grant for Intel will support factory construction in Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico and Oregon. The award is the largest yet from legislation aiming to re-shore manufacturing.

"Acting out" dreams is a really bad sign

Here's a surprising bit of health news:   people who start "acting out" dreams (physically moving in bed as part of a dream) can be on the way to Parkinsons.  As explained in the Washington Post:

In 1986, Schenck and his colleagues first described RBD in four men and one woman, ages 60 or older. Most had long histories of injuring themselves or their bed partners with aggressive behaviors while asleep. One patient had attempted to strangle his wife while dreaming of fighting a bear, while another knocked over furniture during his dream of being a football player. The researchers noted that RBD is distinct from sleepwalking, which originates from non-REM sleep.

Dream enactment behavior has also been documented in severe obstructive sleep apnea, as it causes people to abruptly stop breathing for brief periods during sleep and partially awaken. Since these breathing cessations are most common and severe in REM sleep, they may act out their dreams, mimicking the symptoms of RBD, Schenck said.

About 39 million U.S. adults have obstructive sleep apnea, according to the National Council of Aging, but how many of these adults enact their dreams is not known.

Similarly, those with PTSD may show signs of reliving their trauma through dream enactment. Approximately 70 percent of patients with PTSD report sleep disturbances, and up to 70 percent have recurrent nightmares. However, no data exists on the prevalence of dream enactment behavior in PTSD, Schenck said.

For those with RBD, the risk of Parkinson’s is staggeringly high. Individuals ages 50 and older with idiopathic RBD — that occurs spontaneously with no other health complaints or recent medication changes — have a 130 times greater likelihood of developing Parkinson’s disease compared with someone without the sleep condition.

“There’s nothing like this. … 80 percent of people who have this condition develop Parkinson’s disease 15 to 20 years later,” said Ronald Postuma, director of neurology at McGill University Health Centre.

RBD is 10 times better than any other clinical marker — for example, abnormal motor exam or loss of sense of smell — at predicting the eventual onset of Parkinson’s. RBD is strongly associated with other synucleinopathies, too, a group of diseases that includes Lewy body dementia and multiple system atrophy.

Remarkable.

I woke myself up moaning due to a nightmare sometime in the last 6 months, but that's about the closest I've ever got to this behaviour.  Let's hope it stays that way.

 

I'm imagining Elon Musk with a headache all the way to Mars....

The list of health things for which hanging around in zero G seems to be bad continues to grow.  I hadn't heard of this before:

In a study tracking astronaut health, 22 of 24 International Space Station (ISS) visitors suffered headaches almost three times as frequently as when on Earth. Even some astronauts with no history of headaches may experience migraine and tension-type headaches during stays of 10 days or longer in space, reported a new study published in Neurology....

The astronauts from the European Space Agency, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency underwent health screenings prior to their missions. They also completed questionnaires documenting their headache history. Once in space, they completed the questionnaires for the first seven days and weekly thereafter.

The contrasts were striking. Before their ISS trip, nine astronauts reported no headaches over the past year. Only three mentioned experiencing a headache that interfered with their lives during that period. None had a history of recurrent headaches or had been diagnosed with migraines.

The astronauts reported 378 headaches while in space. Of the total headaches, 170, or 90 percent, were tension-type and 19, or 10 percent, were migraine. Once back on Earth, none reported headaches the first three months after their return.

It's a pity that early science fiction optimism about the fun of being in zero G just isn't really reflected in reality.  Although low gravity, like on the Moon, might still be a lot of fun.   I have a hunch that the first extensive use of the Moon might be more for the money to be made from a low gravity sports arena than from anything to be manufactured there!   

Ketamine explained

An article in Nature about the use of ketamine to treat depression.  (Written because of Musk's disclosure of how he uses it.)  

A minor bleat: can the commissioning producers at the ABC please stop funding Miriam Margolyes content?

I find it hard to believe that Miriam Margolyes has found yet more queer and eccentric Australians to hang out with and hug as a fellow queer and eccentric (and very unhealthy looking) character.

But according to promos on the ABC, yes, there is yet another series of the same stuff.   

Look, she can be a mildly amusing raconteur, but there is such a repetitive sameness to this type of content (she has done the same in visiting Scotland, and America) that it really is pretty tedious. 

While I am in the mood to criticise the love affair that a certain social class (I don't even know how to categorise them) has with queer comedy, I have been meaning to note that Hannah Gadsby has been running a short season of a new stand up stage show, and I have seen exactly one review for it (in The Guardian, of course) that seemed to be struggling a bit to be encouraging.  Here, for example:

Woof! is a mixed experience, partly because Gadsby is chasing their new topic of interest and working out bits onstage; there’s even standard comedy gear still waiting for their Gadsbian spin; at one point, they actually do compare their recent misfortunes to a country song. Gadsby’s shows are typically written to tight narrative complication and subversion, seeding setups for punchlines an hour later, and that keen narrative structure and craft isn’t fully developed here.

But maybe that’s the point. For a show built on resistance and refusal, there’s a surprising amount of openness to form, structure, and play. They’ve been microdosing testosterone, and their voice has changed; we’re seeing them find new ways to experiment with tenor and tone and cadence. And for a show about worry, there are clear attempts to combat the gloom.

As a long term skeptic of the quality of Gadsby's work (so I would say this wouldn't I?), it does seem to me that she has "peaked"; but also, she seems such a clear example of the "stand up comedian who does stand up as a form of public therapy that doesn't actually help in the long run" that I feel a tad sorry for her. 

Singaporean defence: "Just do it"

Here's a shortish video about the huge effort Singapore puts into defence:  8 submarines; F 35s; highways designed to be back up runways; secret code on the TV to call up the reserve. 

It made me think about all the faffing about that goes on in Australian defence acquisitions and planning.  The Singaporean attitude in comparison is "Just do it".   Love it.

 

Trump and "bloodbath"

A pretty good summary here of why it's ridiculous to argue that Trump was just innocently using the word "bloodbath" in the context of tariffs.

Excuse making for Trumpian rhetoric is just pretty pathetic, given the events of Jan 6.   

Of course he uses violence encouraging rhetoric, regularly.  

As someone else explains:

Yanis and technocapitalism

To be honest, I have never quite understood Yanis Varoufakis - on some interviews he has seemed to sound reasonable, but nothing much about what he says has ever stuck in my mind for long.  I'm not sure why.   I mean, I "get" the basic  messages of some other high profile economists - say, Krugman,  Stiglitz (or even Piketty) pretty easily - but the details in what Varousfakis argues end up somewhat opaque to me.

Anyway, I'm writing about him because of a Washington Post review of his new book "Technofeudalism - What Killed Capitalism".   I also see that he touched on its themes in a very wide ranging talk at the National Press Club, and the transcript is here.

He still confuses me.

  

Mold for dinner

An article about gene editing certain molds that we already eat, or use, to make them tastier:

 It’s hearty, it’s meaty, it’s mold

Hacking the genome of fungi for smart foods of the future ....

In their recent paper, publishing on March 14 in Nature Communications, Hill-Maini and colleagues at UC Berkeley, the Joint BioEnergy Institute, and the Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Biosustainability studied a multicellular fungus called Aspergillus oryzae, also known as koji mold, that has been used in East Asia to ferment starches into sake, soy sauce, and miso for centuries. First, the team used CRISPR-Cas9 to develop a gene editing system that can make consistent and reproducible changes to the koji mold genome. Once they had established a toolkit of edits, they applied their system to make modifications that elevate the mold as a food source. First, Hill-Maini focused on boosting the mold’s production of heme – an iron-based molecule which is found in many lifeforms but is most abundant in animal tissue, giving meat its color and distinctive flavor. (A synthetically produced plant-derived heme is also what gives the Impossible Burger its meat-duping properties.) Next, the team punched up production of ergothioneine, an antioxidant only found in fungi that is associated with cardiovascular health benefits.  

After these changes, the once-white fungi grew red. With minimal preparation – removing excess water and grinding – the harvested fungi could be shaped into a patty, then fried into a tempting-looking burger.

Hill-Maini’s next objective is to make the fungi even more appealing by tuning the genes that control the mold’s texture. “We think that there's a lot of room to explore texture by varying the fiber-like morphology of the cells. So, we might be able to program the structure of the lot fibers to be longer which would give a more meat-like experience. And then we can think about boosting lipid composition for mouth feel and further nutrition,” said Hill-Maini, who was a Fellow of the Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science at UC Berkeley during the study. “I'm really excited about how can we further look at the fungus and, you know, tinker with its structure and metabolism for food.”

I have no problem with this...

Americans and their drugs, again

Here's another chapter in "American capitalism seems particularly prone to encouraging the rapid spread of illicit drugs for recreational use":

A national survey of more than 2,000 high school seniors across the country found that more than 11% used a drug called delta-8 THC in the past year.

The psychoactive compound is derived from hemp, and often called "diet weed' or "weed lite." It's milder than its cousin, delta-9 THC, the main intoxicant in marijuana, but has similar effects on the brain and the body.

The percentage of teens using the drug is higher in the 19 states with no regulations around the compound and in states where marijuana has not been legalized....

Products containing delta-8 began to be marketed after the 2018 Agricultural Improvement Act (commonly known as the Farm Bill) included a provision legalizing the sale of hemp-derived cannabis products, containing less than 0.3% of delta-9 THC. This led to the "de facto legalization" of hemp-derived psychoactive delta-8 products," writes Johnson.

But the problem is the lack of oversight around delta-8 products – often sold as edibles or vapes – in many states, says Johnson.

"What is sold is unregulated," she says. "In most states we don't know the potency [of the drug]."

Delta-8 products are made by processing hemp-derived CBD, which can concentrate the drug, she adds. "We're getting higher concentrations of it than we would have ever got in an actual cannabis plant."

Preliminary studies show users reporting adverse health effects, including "cough, rapid heart rate, paranoia, anxiety, breathing problems and seizure," says Johnson.

 

 

 

 

Big (animal) problem

Well, I didn't know this:

Thailand's national animal has become a national problem, as the country deals with an increasing number of deadly encounters between elephants and humans.

Once on the brink of extinction, elephant numbers have now rebounded.

They increased from an estimated 3,000 in 2018 to more than 4,400 in March 2023, according to the latest survey.

But the expansion in numbers has also resulted in more human deaths.

In the same period, 137 people were killed by elephants across Thailand. The Department of National Parks said 12 people have already been killed by elephants this year.

 

Why aren't certain factors in the US Presidential election apparently being reflected in polling?

The current puzzle (beyond the meta puzzle as to why anyone in their right mind has ever voted for him) is that there are clearly certain current factors which should be reflected in Trump's polling, but for some reason they aren't there yet: 

*  I think (I'm having trouble finding the exact figure quickly - thanks Google :( ) the Haley primary vote ran on average at about 30%, for a candidate who had taken to sounding pretty much like a "never Trumper".  (Given the jellyback that it takes to be a Republican politician these days, whether that will hold is an open question.)    

*  Trump's takeover of the RNC and immediately sacking a bunch of people must surely create animosity amongst some formerly loyal and influential party members.

*  Trump is clearly making more verbal fumbles in his speeches than before, and appearing "low energy" at times.  His "greatest hits" style of rambling before cultists (including reverting to patently childish insult) for an hour already feels old, and its wildly unlikely that he is going to change.   

On the Biden side, you have the nutty Left who are swearing they won't vote for him over Israel/Gaza, preferring to sit it out and risk having a president about 300% worse on the issue.  But really, I get the impression that this group is much louder than its actual numbers - much like the whining Bernie Sanders bros who didn't end up being all that influential.

I think - and this is just a hunch - that the anti-Trump wing of the Republicans must be larger, and knows to be discrete if they don't want to be harassed by family and friends - and as such should be much more influential in the final election vote.

But - this doesn't seem to be being reflected in polling.

I wonder why?

Update:  here's an article (not from Nate Silver) looking at the uncertainties in polling at this stage of election cycles.  It's pretty good.

Incidentally, I remain confident that Trump won't win - not only will the "anti Trump" faction of Republicans be important, continuing court battles will be a constant distraction for his campaigning, and if the polling remains close before the election, Democrat motivation (particularly amongst women) to prevent his return should be very high.

Off to the B Ark with these "you too can get rich with AI Youtube content" spammers

There is an annoying quasi-industry of content creators who have set themselves up as content creation "get rich quick" advisers on Youtube and Twitter.

The worst of these are those who claim you can make a lot of money by setting up "faceless" Youtube videos using AI to generate the script (and much of the imagery), and how to "spam" Youtube with such content to make the algorithm push it.   (Typically, you see a thread on Twitter about this, with 50 spammy "great idea, thanks for the advice" comments following.)

The thing is, Youtube content with AI generated content is awful and a waste of everyone's time.   It's recognizable almost instantly, and I find it very hard to believe that most viewers continue watching it once they cotton on that the bland commentary is from ChatGPT or its ilk.  

This is my "the internet has taken an unexpected turn for the worse" bleat for today.....

 

Kidnapping yourself doesn't work in Singapore

Not a very bright scheme, but with some added twists and more incompetent police force, could make a good basis for a movie?  (Or has this been done?   I suspect it has, but can't think of any specific movie.)

SINGAPORE: A 33-year-old man who allegedly faked his own kidnapping to recoup his gambling debts was charged in court on Monday (Mar 11) with attempting to cheat his aunt.

Liu Changjian, a Chinese national, is accused of trying to trick Madam Liu Ya Bo into paying a ransom of 30,000 yuan (US$4,170) for his release.

He had sent threatening messages to his aunt last week while pretending to be his captor, the police said in a news release.

Liu was at the Marina Bay Sands Casino on Mar 7 and Mar 8 when he put his plan in motion, according to court documents.

He pleaded not guilty and will next appear in court for a pre-trial conference on Mar 25.

Preliminary investigations revealed that Liu entered Singapore on Mar 1 as a tourist. He was supposed to return to China on Mar 6 but did not do so, the police said.

His aunt, who was in China, then received text messages through WeChat from an unknown person seeking a ransom of 30,000 yuan for Liu’s release. This person forwarded a photo of Liu’s travel document as proof.

When she alerted Liu’s father to the matter, the older man – who was also in China – called the Singapore Police Force (SPF) for help on the evening of Mar 9.

Officers from the Central Police Division conducted "extensive searches and investigations" to locate Liu, said SPF.

They found him "safe and sound" in the Marina Bay area within three hours of receiving the call for assistance.

Further investigations revealed that he had gambling debts of between S$20,000 and S$30,000, the police said.

He then staged his kidnapping and sent threatening messages to his aunt in hopes of receiving the ransom. However, it was not paid to him or anyone else.

From that account, it seems the "ransom" is sought was only a fraction of his actual gambling debt.  So there is that.

Also, given the many, many surveillance cameras in Singapore, the police can very likely easily tell whether someone is in the company of a kidnapper very quickly.

 

A witty exchange

I say that while not even having seen Memento: