Big in Turkey

When I turned the TV on yesterday morning, SBS was showing its re-broadcast of foreign news services, and the one from Turkey was just beginning.  After about 20 minutes of (I think) a 30 minute evening news show, I switched over, because it was still talking about Hagia Sophia going back to being a mosque.

It was, it would seem, a popular move amongst most Turks.  Some polling would indicate that's right.

Yet some polling earlier in the year indicated that private religious beliefs were not as devout as they were a decade ago.  The suggestion is that it might be a bit of youth rebellion against their conservative government trying to get people to be more religious.

Going more conservative in Islam in particular has probably never turned out well for a country's economic development, has it?   I see now, Googling the topic of Islam and economic development generally, there's been some pretty negative analysis around for a long time. Here's an abstract:

This essay critically evaluates the analytic literature concerned with causal connections between Islam and economic performance. It focuses on works since 1997, when this literature was last surveyed. Among the findings are the following: Ramadan fasting by pregnant women harms prenatal development; Islamic charities mainly benefit the middle class; Islam affects educational outcomes less through Islamic schooling than through structural factors that handicap learning as a whole; Islamic finance hardly affects Muslim financial behavior; and low generalized trust depresses Muslim trade. The last feature reflects the Muslim world's delay in transitioning from personal to impersonal exchange. The delay resulted from the persistent simplicity of the private enterprises formed under Islamic law. Weak property rights reinforced the private sector's stagnation by driving capital out of commerce and into rigid waqfs. Waqfs limited economic development through their inflexibility and democratization by restraining the development of civil society. Parts of the Muslim world conquered by Arab armies are especially undemocratic, which suggests that early Islamic institutions, including slave-based armies, were particularly critical to the persistence of authoritarian patterns of governance. States have contributed themselves to the persistence of authoritarianism by treating Islam as an instrument of governance. As the world started to industrialize, non-Muslim subjects of Muslim-governed states pulled ahead of their Muslim neighbors by exercising the choice of law they enjoyed under Islamic law in favor of a Western legal system. 

To be honest, I would have thought that the Ramadan fast would not apply to pregnant women, and the issue of it hurting pre-natal development is something I hadn't heard of before.*   The full paper for that abstract is available here.  It's very long, so I skipped to the end summary, and yeah, things look bad for the connection between Islam and economic development.  (Unless, I guess, you're a tiny country sitting on top of a giant pool of oil.)


* Or maybe I have, but forgotten.  When I Google the topic, there are lots of articles about it as a controversial topic.  Apparently, pregnant women are told that they do not have to fast if they are concerned bout the health of their fetus, but many chose to do so anyway.   One study from Iraq seem to say that more of the better educated chose not to fast.  I find it hard to imagine how pregnant mothers in the countries with severe heat during it can think that not drinking during the day is OK for the baby.    

Snowflake cavemen

In research that strikes me as kind of amusing, though particularly useless, it turns out there is good reason to suspect that Neanderthals had a low pain threshold:

As several Neandertal genomes of high quality are now available researchers can identify genetic changes that were present in many or all Neandertals, investigate their physiological effects and look into their consequences when they occur in people today. Looking into one gene that carries such changes, Hugo Zeberg, Svante Pääbo and colleagues found that some people, especially from central and south America but also in Europe, have inherited a Neandertal variant of a gene that encodes an ion channel that initiates the sensation of pain.

By using data from a huge population study in the UK, the authors show that people in the UK who carry the Neandertal variant of the ion channel experience more pain. "The biggest factor for how much pain people report is their age. But carrying the Neandertal variant of the ion channel makes you experience more pain similar to if you were eight years older," says lead author Hugo Zeberg, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology and Karolinska Institutet. "The Neandertal variant of the ion channel carries three amino acid differences to the common, 'modern' variant,'" explains Zeberg. "While single amino acid substitutions do not affect the function of the ion channel, the full Neandertal variant carrying three amino acid substitutions leads to heightened pain sensitivity in present-day people."

There's a little bit more in the article here.

All rather unfortunate if you had a higher than modern chance of being gnawed on by a sabretooth.

As noted by lots of other people...

....Andrew Bolt is approaching Donald Trump levels of lack of self awareness:

Add caption

No, no they are not...

Article at The Guardian:

Rediscovering the male soap opera: 'The highs and lows of wrestling rivalry are intoxicating' 

It seems to be about a gay (or queer, to use his term) bloke saying that the camp drama of TV wrestling really appealed to him as a queer kid.   I guess I can get that - and still be completely puzzled as to why adult straight men or women would want anything to do with this lurid form of cosplay.

Things going "bang" in Iran

An interesting article at ABC News on the question of why Iran seems to be having so many infrastructure explosions.

It notes that Israel could well be behind some of it, aiming to prevent Biden re-negotiating the nuclear deal if he wins in November. 

Not sure Taleb is his friend

Well, that's odd.

James Allan, the conservative law lecturer at UQ who I have previously pointed out makes statements unsupported by, you know, facts, has a typical Australian right wing conservative blowhard's take on COVID-19:  its danger has been vastly overestimated and the lockdown approach has been a terrible error.

But in the Spectator column in which he is opining this, he starts with citing Nassim Taleb's "skin in the game" idea as being crucial to understanding why governments have got it wrong. 

Which seems odd for this reason: I think Taleb is far too idiosyncratic to spend much time paying attention to, but as far as I know, from my brief looks at his Twitter account since the pandemic started, he has never been a sceptic of the danger of COVID 19 and lately has spent time arguing that governments requiring face mask wearing would be a good policy they should have been pushing earlier.  

In other words, Allan seems to be using one idea of Taleb's to make an argument, but ignoring Taleb's actual opinion on COVID and risk.  Which seems a foolish (that is, typical Australian version of a conservative) thing to do. 

Perhaps Jason can confirm this is correct, as I assume you still follow Taleb much more closely than I do....

The man for whom the 1950's has never ended

I've said many times before he is a reincarnation of a middle aged Catholic man from the 1950's, but the extent to which Catholic conservative CL seems to think other people all share his viewpoint still amazes me sometimes:
 

And I say this even on the basis that, sure, I'm socially conservative enough to say that I think its better for parents to be married rather than in de facto relationships.   But it's ridiculous to suggest that unmarried mothers are in no position to set workplace relationship standards because they are unmarried.

I should also mention - he is profoundly ignorant (and arrogant) on anything to do with science:

Donald Trump was right along. And all the “experts” were wrong. Absolutely, totally, unambiguously…wrong. If the figure really is closer to 500,000 (or higher), COVID-19 is not a whole lot worse than the sniffles. This is the biggest episode of mass hysteria in modern history and if you’re still denying that, you’re a crank.

But Sinclair Davidson likes to run a blog for for the dangerous promotion of bad science takes that endangers people both now and into the future.


 

A completely normal observation

Way, way stranger than fiction.

That new climate sensitivity estimate

The report in Science seems pretty good in its explanation of what the new paper considered.

Short story:

Now, in a landmark effort, a team of 25 scientists has significantly narrowed the bounds on this critical factor, known as climate sensitivity. The assessment, conducted under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and publishing this week in Reviews of Geophysics, relies on three strands of evidence: trends indicated by contemporary warming, the latest understanding of the feedback effects that can slow or accelerate climate change, and lessons from ancient climates. They support a likely warming range of between 2.6°C and 3.9°C

At least the Saudis are being sensible about this

Gee. Saudis are being more sensible than Adam Creighton. France 24 reports:

This year's hajj, which has been scaled back dramatically to include only around 1,000 Muslim pilgrims as Saudi Arabia battles a coronavirus surge, will begin on July 29, authorities said Monday.

Some 2.5 million people from all over the world usually participate in the ritual that takes place over several days, centred on the holy city of Mecca.

This year's hajj will be held under strict hygiene protocols, with access limited to pilgrims under 65 years old and without any chronic illnesses.

Here's a photo with the article:

 It's probably 35 degrees or something while they are doing this, but when you can see the floor like that, it looks rather like a skating rink.

I also find it odd how it seems people don't aren't acting with particular reverence while doing stuff around the Kaaba.   I know cleaners gotta clean, but zipping around on those industrial cleaning thinks look more like they're cleaning the tiles at a giant shopping centre than somewhere something sacred sits.   I don't know - maybe the cleaners doing the rounds inside St Peter's look the same?  Heh - yeah, I guess right: 

In some rare, good social media news

Twitter has announced sweeping measures aimed at cracking down on the QAnon conspiracy theory, including banning thousands of accounts.

The social media giant said it would also stop recommending content linked to QAnon and block URLs associated with it from being shared on the platform.

That's from the BBC.

I thought I read somewhere that Twitter wannabe competitor Parler was also taking action against it?  Can't find that now, though.  In any event, Parler has not taken off, and won't.  This, from Forbes, is rather amusing:

It’s all had the feeling of a fad and, as the Daily Beast noted earlier this week, there are signs it has begun to burn out. Sensor Tower data provided to Bloomberg also show new downloads slowing significantly in recent weeks. The reason comes down to a somewhat obvious point: People seeking a platform for their political views gravitate towards the places with the largest audiences.

Conservatives have struggled to break free from Silicon Valley’s social media behemoths before. Milo Yiannopoulos, who actually was banned from Twitter and Facebook Inc., complained last fall to his 19,000 Telegram followers that they weren’t worth his time. “It’s nice to have a little private chat with my gold star homies but I can’t make a career out of a handful of people like that,” he said, according to screenshots posted by Vice last September. Yiannopoulos went on to say that Gab, another social network the right once hoped would supplant Twitter, was full of teenage racists, and complained that "no one" uses Parler. “Unless something monumental happens, we are just going to be driven off the internet forever,” he wrote.

And they are getting caught up in the limits of free speech fights anyway: 

Parler is quickly discovering the limits of free expression. On June 30, Matze used Parler to explain its house rules, apparently frustrated with some of Parler’s new users testing the limits of its free-expression motto by posting pornographic images and obscenities.

Parler is facing the same evolution bigger social media companies have confronted for years — balancing free expression with creating safe and inviting online communities. Twitter early on referred to itself as “the free-speech wing of the free-speech party.” Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg maintained through the company’s early years that it is not a publisher, but a neutral platform. Facebook is still a place for free expression, Zuckerberg said in a speech last year, but he acknowledged some speech that is harmful and infringes on others’ rights shouldn’t be allowed.

The mysterious radio stations are still with us

I would have linked before to articles about the "numbers stations" (which I am pretty sure I had heard directly a few times when I used to twiddle around with a nice shortwave radio I had as a younger man.  I still have a short wave radio, as it happens, but haven't scanned the airwaves for many a year.)

This article, at BBC Future, is a very interesting look at a Russian station that doesn't even transmit numbers, and its purpose is unknown.

The article indicates that it being a "dead hand" signal is probably the most likely explanation:

“There’s absolutely no information in the signal,” says David Stupples, an expert in signals intelligence from City University, London.

What’s going on?

The frequency is thought to belong to the Russian military, though they’ve never actually admitted this. It first began broadcasting at the close of the Cold War, when communism was in decline. Today it’s transmitted from two locations – the St Petersburg site and a location near Moscow. Bizarrely, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, rather than shutting down, the station’s activity sharply increased.

There’s no shortage of theories to explain what the Buzzer might be for – ranging from keeping in touch with submarines to communing with aliens. One such idea is that it’s acting as a “Dead Hand” signal; in the event Russia is hit by a nuclear attack, the drone will stop and automatically trigger a retaliation. No questions asked, just total nuclear obliteration on both sides.

It does talk about the history of coded signals, and we get this part which I don't think I have heard of before:

During World War Two, the British realised that they could, in fact, decipher the messages – but they’d have to get their hands on the one-time pad that was used to encrypt them. “We discovered that the Russians used the out-of-date sheets of one-time pads as substitute toilet paper in Russian army hospitals in East Germany,” says Glees. Needless to say, British intelligence officers soon found themselves rifling through the contents of Soviet latrines.

 Such glamorous work, being in intelligence!

Exactly

Of course, a large chunk of Trump supporters are so, so stupid as to claim that even a private business  requiring they wear a face mask is fascism, while the above is fine because it's aimed at Democrat voters and enabled by their cult leader.

Australian wingnut watch

I see that the idea of having to wear a facemask when going out is going down a treat amongst several of the wingnuts of Catallaxy:

Funnily enough, Sinclair Davidson himself seems to take the risk seriously. From another post, in which he does his own hysteric act over imagined anti-Semitism (in the Herald Sun, of all places):

More seriously – hope lockdown is treating you well. Despite what they say here, this is more than a flu and you should stay in iso.

There's a deep irony here:   he's at greater risk of catching it himself because of the very same nutjob hysterics who are attracted to his anti-science blog. 

A peculiar syndrome

I mentioned the odd Indian/Chinese idea about the magical, health giving power of men not letting their semen ever leave their bodies again in a recent post, and have now found out something else that sometimes happens as a result of this belief.

First, a magazine article about some Western dudes who have cottoned onto the idea as a way of trying to make a buck:   The Cult of Semen Retention.   It's pretty amusing, the overblown claims.

But Googling the topic also brings up this topic:  Dhat Syndrome.  As explained in the Indian Journal of Psychiatry:

Dhat syndrome (“semen loss”-related psychological distress) is a culture-bound syndrome seen in the natives of Indian subcontinent, but it is prevalent in other cultures also. Its diagnosis and management issues need to be taught to postgraduates in their teaching program. This syndrome involves vague and multiple somatic and psychological complaints such as fatigue, listlessness, loss of appetite, lack of physical strength, poor concentration, forgetfulness and other vague somatic troubles. These symptoms are usually associated with an anxious and dysphoric mood state. These patients may also present with or without psychosexual dysfunction. The management of Dhat syndrome needs serious attention.

And more details.  First, this is why (some) Indians think semen is so important for health:

Since then, myth prevalent among people of the Indian subcontinent is that “it takes 40 days for 40 drops of food to be converted to one drop of blood, 40 drops of blood to make one drop of bone marrow and 40 drops of bone marrow form one drop of semen.”

You would have thought human biology being a subject in schools would help, but I don't know.

The author then goes on to draw a wider net, alleging that anti-masturbation crusades in Western countries in the past reflects the same sort of attitude.   It partly does, but still, this Dhat Syndrome is something else:

The patients who presented with symptoms of Dhat syndrome were mostly young, recently married, belonging to average or low socioeconomic status (perhaps a student, laborer or farmer by occupation), from rural area and from family with conservative attitudes towards sex.[12,16,17]

Patients having Dhat syndrome can be further divided into three categories.[18]

1. Dhat alone - Patients attributed their symptoms to semen loss; presenting symptoms - hypochondriacal, depressive or anxiety symptoms
2. Dhat with comorbid depression and anxiety - Dhat was seen as an accompanying symptom
3. Dhat with sexual dysfunction

The duration of presentation of these patients from the onset varies from less than three months up to one year,[5,16] even up to 20 years.[10] These patients reported that they lose their semen in sleep, with urine, masturbation, hetero/homosexual sex.[10,16,17,19]

In other words, it seems that their belief in the health enhancing importance of semen is so strong that even having a young man having sex within marriage can freak out that it's harming him.  As I say, pretty peculiar.

The syndrome even has a Wikipedia entry.  But here is another, better backgrounder about it (from the Indian Journal of Dermatology, for some reason): 

Ayurvedic literature describing semen as a vital constituent of the human body dates back to 1500 BC. The disorders of ‘Dhatus’ have been elucidated in the Charak Samhita, which describes a disorder called ‘Shukrameha’ in which there is a passage of semen in the urine. Similar conditions have been described under various names from China (Shen K'uei), Sri Lanka (Prameha) and other parts of South East Asia (Jiryan). Malhotra and Wig called ‘Dhat’ ‘a sexual neurosis of the Orient’.[4] In China, anxiety following semen loss (Shen-K'uie) has been associated with epidemics of Koro, which is another culture bound syndrome in which the individual holds the belief that his penis is shrinking into his body and disappearing. Tissot's paper in 18th century stating that even an adequate diet could waste away through seminal emission gained popularity amongst the emerging middle class and led Western Europe to an era of masturbating insanity.

The International Classification of diseases ICD-10 classifies Dhat syndrome as both a neurotic disorder (code F48.8) and a culture specific disorder (Annexe 2) caused by ‘undue concern about the debilitating effects of the passage of semen.’ It is a commonly recognized clinical entity in India and South East Asia and is also widespread in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Dhat Syndrome is characterized primarily with complaints of loss of semen through urine, nocturnal emission or masturbation, accompanied by vague symptoms of weakness, fatigue, palpitation and sleeplessness. The condition has no organic etiology. It may sometimes be associated with sexual dysfunction (impotence and premature ejaculation) and psychiatric illness (depression, anxiety neurosis or phobia).[5]

So, there you go.   I feel like drawing up a map sometimes of "bad cultural ideas that are harmful and need to go away", with China being labelled for Traditional Chinese Medicine as my first target.  But the semen worrying seems to me to be more likely Indian in origin. 

Update:  I was curious to read what a Ayurvdic practitioner might say about the condition, and found this site which seems to take a semi sensible line that a lot of anxiety about it is unfounded, but also includes this very specific opinion:

Charaka Samhita postulates that semen is all-pervasive within the body like "oil in the sesamic seed" and suggests one ejaculation per week in summer and 168 total yearly ejaculations as the optimal sexual frequency for males.

But, but...once a week in (say) a 3 month summer would only be about 12 times.   They have a fair bit of catching up to do to hit that weirdly specific "optimal sexual frequency" over the rest of the year.

Noted from Nature

It would be no magic elixir, but all ideas are probably worth investigating at this stage:

Large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere might be achieved through enhanced rock weathering. It now seems that this approach is as promising as other strategies, in terms of cost and CO₂-removal potential.

Also, as the headline indicates, don't get your hopes up about an effective COVID vaccine coming anytime soon:

Coronavirus vaccines leap through safety trials — but which will work is anybody’s guess

A podcast I might watch

A weather question

Is it just me, or does this Brisbane winter seem to others to be colder at night and in the mornings than your average recent winter?  The days are still nice enough, for the most part (although even then, I have a sense that we have had slightly more cloudy, no sunshine days - like today.)  I just seem to have been feeling colder in the house this winter generally speaking.

Of course, in the Northern Hemisphere, things are in the opposite direction:

For the past month, Siberia has captured the world’s attention thanks to a climate change-fueled heat wave that caused temperatures in an Arctic town to crack 100 degrees in June and whipped up an outbreak of fires across normally frigid tundra. But an equally alarming situation is unfolding just north of Siberia’s shores: sea ice is crashing in a region that scientists consider to be the ice factory of the Arctic.

A new ice extent record in September is not certain, but the long term consequences of a lot of open sea north of Siberia is still likely to be significant:

Whether 2020 brings a new record for sea ice destruction or not, what’s happening this year will be significant. Most new sea ice formation in the Arctic occurs along the eastern half of Siberia’s north coast, where ice grows in the autumn and winter before being swept out to sea. Because there’s so much open water absorbing sunlight in the region right now, Serreze says it’s “very likely” that autumn ice formation will be delayed, which could have ripple effects going into next year.

Ultimately, more years like this could hasten Arctic sea ice’s long term, climate change driven meltdown, which matters far more than individual records.

“Everyone wants to focus on the minimum, but any amount of time the ice is at a record low is affecting arctic climate,” Labe said. “To me, that’s very significant.”

Here's the graph:

 

The finest conservatives

Unless things have changed recently, "areff" is Roger Franklin, long time Quadrant online editor:

It's not that he told her he was Dave Mason; it's just that he didn't correct her and (apparently) signed the name "Dave Mason", which I guess is supposed to make it not something that's dishonest and creepy (not to mention, I suspect, now a sexual offence in some countries), but a jape to laugh about decades later:

Conservatives speaking openly at Catallaxy are just the worst possible advertisement for Conservativism that I know.

Update:  it has occurred to me that he doesn't say when she asked for the autograph.  If it was after "sleeping with" her, he possibly might not have been dishonest prior to it.   I find it a bit hard to believe, however, that if she was interested in him because she assumed he was a well known musician, that she would have not been asking questions about band life before going to bed, and that this would not have alerted him to her error.

Andrew Bolt unmasked

So Bolt joins the Right wing whiner mob about wearing facemasks.

In "good" company with chef nutball Pete Evans, and Alan Jones:

You know the score:  climate change denialists have been in science (and common sense) denial for decades now - why expect them to exercise common sense (and a responsible attitude towards other people - including their kids and grandkids) over a viral illness?  

Bolt has been fact checked pretty effectively by The Feed on SBS. 

I just find the arrogance of promoting facemask scepticism very disturbing.   Making a living from bloviating is no doubt a large part of the problem, as well as playing Right wing culture war politics.

But doesn't just plain common sense suggest that using a mask is a helpful thing to do when community transmission is becoming a great concern in a city?   I mean, bloody hell, you even had Hannity taking that line.

And for the millionth time I note:  the problems of the Left in terms of "cancel culture" and identity politics may be irritating and cause some individual cases of injustice, but it's nothing like the actual life threatening danger on every scale (local community and planet wide; immediate and long term beyond our lifetimes) that the poisonous culture war Right is bringing.